Considering the dire preseason forecasts for the Islanders, coach Ted Nolan is right when he says most fans gladly would have settled for one game over .500 at the All-Star break. But there’s a sense of disappointment, too, running through the organization because they were six games over .500 after beating the Rangers on Dec. 26 and in playoff position with a hot goaltender in Rick DiPietro.
All forward momentum was lost when they scored only one goal in the next three games and then suffered a horrible home loss to Philadelphia in the fourth game of what became a six-game losing streak. Now, they’re on the outside looking in again, facing an uphill battle for a playoff spot against teams that generally seem to have more talent, skill and speed on the top two lines.
The lack of a powerful scoring punch has forced Nolan to focus his efforts on tightening the defense while relying on a physical, grinding style that wears down opponents but leaves only a small margin for error. That’s why special teams play has become the critical determining factor in the Islanders’ success. When they equal or surpass their opponents’ number of power-play goals in a game, the Islanders are 16-5-2 compared to 6-16-2 when outscored on the power play. The Isles rank sixth in the NHL while playing at even strength.
With all that in mind, let’s break down some of the major concerns facing the Islanders:
LACK OF SCORING: At the moment, Alexei Yashin (13 goals) and Miroslav Satan (13) are on pace for 20-25 goals apiece. If they pick up the pace, it would solve a lot of problems. And the Isles can’t afford to have All-Star Jason Blake (24) or Viktor Kozlov (16) and Mike Sillinger (15) slack off after productive starts.
Although the Islanders have been involved in a lot of games decided by one or two goals, that’s deceptive to a certain degree. In 11 of their 21 regulation losses, the Isles trailed by three or more goals at some point. Three times, they narrowed the gap to one goal and one other time they drew within two. In several of the two-goal losses, they failed to really threaten.
TIME TO CALL BRIDGEPORT FOR HELP?: Robert Nilsson’s skill level impressed some in the locker room last season, and Jeff Tambellini has backed up his outstanding training camp by leading the Sound Tigers in scoring. But based on their actions, Nolan and general manager Garth Snow either are committed to letting the kids develop or simply don’t believe they are ready to make a major contribution to a playoff push.
Remember, this is a new regime. They want to win now, but as Nolan said, they also want to build a solid foundation for the future. Nilsson and Tambellini lately have started to click in Bridgeport with center Frans Nielsen, who left a favorable impression in his two-game stint with the Isles when Shawn Bates was injured. Blake Comeau also is making progress. Is a short-term gamble worth it? If one of them came up and flopped, would it ruin his trade value? Consider everything.
SPECIAL TEAMS MUST IMPROVE: The power play succeeded in the Isles’ last win in Philadelphia, Sillinger said, because they established the point shot and then created traffic in front of the net. It sounds simple enough, but Sillinger said the natural tendency is to want to pass the puck around the perimeter, looking for the perfect opening. As long as they’re in control of the puck, the Islanders look good on the power play. But if there’s a question of control, they lose too many battles, and they often make the mistake of trying diagonal cross-ice passes when they enter the offensive zone, leading to turnovers.
In some ways, the penalty-killing unit is a greater problem than the power play. The fact that the Isles have only three short-handed goals this season is an indication of their lack of aggressiveness. On their last visit to Carolina, the Hurricanes’ penalty-killers just smothered the Islanders’ power play by aggressively attacking the points and making it almost impossible to set up. Too often, the Islanders’ penalty-killing forwards stand still and wait, reacting to the opponents’ passes and eventually leaving the goaltenders exposed to open shots. Improve the penalty kill, and it will keep the Isles in a lot more games.
PAST TRADES: Since trading Alexei Zhitnik and Mike York to Philadelphia for Freddy Meyer and Randy Robitaille, the Isles have gone 7-9-1, but the notion of a cause-and-effect relationship doesn’t stand up. The cause of the Islanders’ slide was the scoring slump that precipitated their six-game losing streak. York has been so bad with the Flyers that his ice time has been measured in single digits the past four games. Robitaille cited an adjustment period for his slow start and said, “When I have my confidence, I’m a totally different player.” His confidence appears to be growing, and he’s starting to get comfortable with Kozlov and Satan.
Despite a poor game recently in Pittsburgh, Meyer has a plus-two rating, and Nolan and Snow like the physical edge he brings. Snow suggested Meyer could develop into a more mobile version of Sean Hill, which, if it happened, would be tremendous. The jury’s out on that one, but whether or not the Isles use the $5 million of salary-cap space that was created by these deals, it’s hard to disagree with Snow that they represent an upgrade on their own merits.
FUTURE TRADES: Judging by the speed with which Snow moved on the Zhitnik and York deals, it’s safe to say he would have made a trade for offensive help by now if a good deal had presented itself. Trade rumors finally are starting to percolate across the league and they likely will accelerate during the All-Star break. But since every GM discusses hundreds of scenarios, more than 90 percent of the rumors will be false. Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Columbus and Chicago are the most likely sellers right now. If St. Louis and Phoenix regress again, they could join that bunch. Flyers center Peter Forsberg has been mentioned recently in connection with the Rangers, but you have to be leery of his recurring foot problems. In four games against the Islanders, he has one point and hasn’t looked anything like his old self. Frederik Modin and Anson Carter haven’t done much with the Blue Jackets but are headed for free agency and certainly will be among the players discussed around the league.
If the Islanders decide to make a move, keep in mind that they are building a team to Nolan’s specifications. He began this season hoping to play like Buffalo’s high-speed attack and then was forced to adjust to a more defensive style suited to his personnel. Eventually, he might acquire the speed and skill to play a run-and-gun game, but those qualities alone aren’t enough to play for Nolan or Nilsson might have made the team in training camp. Grit and a competitive fire are prerequisites for any player the Islanders target.
And by the way, that’s why I take Snow at face value when he says the Islanders want to re-sign Blake even though they have yet to make an offer. Blake has the edge Nolan likes to go with his speed and skill. It’s hard to imagine the Isles letting Blake go unless he wants to leave. If Snow and Nolan can make a major move in the trade market to build a serious playoff contender, it will give Blake that much more reason to remain with the Islanders beyond this season.
FINAL PROGRAM NOTE: I’m off until the Islanders return to practice next Thursday, when I have to file a story and catch a flight to Atlanta. So, unless some newsworthy event occurs during All-Star week, my next blog likely will come from Atlanta on Friday after the morning skate.
Comments (23)
Let me get this straight, you are suggesting that the Islanders don't want to bring up some kids because IF they flop it might ruin their trade value?
So, what happened to sticking with the kids and building through the organization?
By suggesting that the Islander prospects value is measured only in trade value suggests that the Islanders will use them as bargaining chips at the deadline.
If this team sells off it's future ONCE AGAIN (Thank you Milldork) I am DONE being a fan, PERIOD.
I agree. I can deal with the fact that they won't bring up some of the young players because they "aren't ready" now but will be in the future - I can't deal with knowing that they're being left down because they're just trade bait. I mean is that why we draft players? I feel like other teams actually promote from within ...hasn't this organization learned anything from its past successes (cup era) and its failures (all the traded youth)? How many more former Islander prospects have to flourish in the league before they realize that it's ok to give the youth in your organization a chance.
Now, I'm not saying that I never think it's a good idea to trade away youth, but the Isles have a habit of trading away young talent (high end talent) for little projects or risky gambles that never seem to turn out the way they hope.
Now, I can understand why Nolan wants a "certain type" of player - but you mean to tell me that either (or all) Nilsson, Tambellini, Comeau or Neilson couldn't help this pathetic - which is saying it nicely - PP? Would it be that big of a crime to have a player actually score instead of cycling?
I'm just curious whether if Snow is going to learn from the past or create a new list of former Islander prospects dealt away for mediocre talent ...sadly I wonder if Nolan would rather have a 3rd liner who is gritty over a top liner who can score ....
Grit and a competitive fire are prerequisites for any player the Islanders target.
What about Steve Webb, Jordin Tootoo, Cam Janssen, Tyson Nash, Ryan Hollweg, bring Kevin Colley out of retirement. This team needs a guy who will be physical and use the body any time he is out there. Trent Hunter and Andy Hilbert hit like women, I don't want to hear how "good" and valuable they are from anyone including you Garth Snow. Wake up! This organization needs some heart and guts! Never underestimate the value of of a big hit to wake up the sleeping fans and players at the Coliseum. Every team has a player like this except for this uninspired, lazy team. Get someone on this roster to get the home crowd and sleeping players on the bench into it. Ive been to just under 12 games this year and the Coliseum is like a funeral home.
Bring a kid or two up from Bridgport too while you're at it. Do I really need to watch Chris Simon getting first-line power play time every night?
You are exactly right Rico, we need a momentum changer. Bringing up a kid as well would be excellent. Hopefully next year we can become a run and gun team
Garth, it's up to you to stop this vicious cycle of wasted youth. Keep it up and our even younger prospects like Okposo and O'Mara will be superstars...but of course on another team. Bring up the youth energy from Bridgeport.
Does anyone think that maybe the youthful mistakes that Gervais is constantly repeating is holding back Nolan & Garth's decision to call up more youth?
If that is a true statement this organization needs to get a reality check.(Speaking of which...Are we lacking those necessary components to the game as well?)
The Campoli fiasco is THE biggest disappointment of the year. How does he lead the defence in points last year and then have to "earn" a spot? Look at what he continues to do even with limited ice time. He's got the new NHL game of speed and the offensive lift we so sadly lack. Give Gervais and Meyer tickets to Bridgeport and start to limit the ice time of final year Hill and over rated Poti.
If the Isles are merely going to be so-so, then why not give the kids time at the top level so that they can see for themselves what it takes to win in the NHL? What's wrong with a fourth line of Nilsson/Tambellini/Asham, with Richard Park bumping Chris Simon? They'll get 8-10 minutes a night of action against top opponents and learn pretty quickly about the game.
The worst thing in the world isn't necessarily having a bad year - it's having a bad year and laying the foundation for ten more bad years by letting the talent bleed away. It's bad enough to watch Olli Jokinen, Jason Spezza, Martin Straka, Mattheiu Schnieder, and Todd Bertuzzi play as well as they have the past few seasons. (A list of all the ex-Isles since '93 would turn your stomach.) I don't want to watch Okposo, O'Marra, Comeau, Campoli, Kohn, etc. go the same way.
Now, now Miggsey - stop obsessing about the defense. Your point about Campoli is well taken, but ease up a bit on Poti, Hill and Bruno. Hill and Poti were each directly instrumental in a number of tough wins, and Hill with Witt have reversed what's been a "soft" reputation for this team. Bruno's made some mistakes, but his long-term upside is probably at least equal to that of Campoli. So some patience is certainly in order here. Besides, team goals against was close to top tier until late December.
Wouldn't you agree that the BIGGEST disappointment really has to be the lack of scoring on the part of Satan and Hunter? They'd be on top of Jersey right now if Satan was the sniper that he was last year. And what if Hunter had even 10 goals now? (Of course, we never really did expect anything from Yashin, did we?) Size, strength AND scoring - that's what was expected from Hunter. What we've gotten is bad hands, zero improvement in skating. Very disappointing.
With Hunter, I meant 10 goals of the variety he scored in his rookie year, with his deceptive and hard shot. His goals this year have been of the garbage variety - the kind I know Nolan likes, but those should come in ADDITION to the ones he can score from the perimeter.
I agree with all who write that they want to see some of the young guys up here. With the talent in this league so spread out, it amazes me that we don't have a franchise type player that you would say to yourself, wow, I'd pay to see him play. My problem with this team is that they aren't fun to watch. I know Nolan is playing the hand that is dealt to him and he can't run and gun it like Buffalo, but at least most teams have one player that you can say, wow he's got some skills. I think Nilsson is that type of player. I just can't get excited about watching a bunch of 3rd line guys, especially after being so bad for so long and having nothing to show for it (no Luongo, Brewer, Heatley, Spezza, etc.). Just thinking about those trades kill me.
Cincy:I guess for me it's always been a question of balance. If anything positive came out of last year's catastrophe it was the play of Campoli. If we'd stayed with him AND added Bruno to continue a youth movement I could see some sense of direction. As it now stands, all I see is too many hangers on that cramp the youth development. Bates, Asham, Robataille and Park OR Nillson, O'Mara, and Tambellini night after night?
As far as Miro and Trent go, I wouldn't give up on Miro just yet but Trent has seen better days. I wouldn't hesitate moving both of them along with a prospect for the right player.
This once proud organization is a joke....Wang has run it to the ground the same way he ran his computer companies to the ground....The fact Milbury is not thrown out of our buildings is the more scary then the GM of the Detroit Lions....... This teams has got ZERO going for it and as for the young talent PLEASE.... They are all going to be third liners at best.... SELL THE TEAM !!!
Lost marketing opportunities continue to haunt this team. Campoli should be in Dallas along with Blake representing the Islanders. His NHL stats from last year and this year far outweigh the vast majority of D representing their respective teams in the Young Stars game tonight. Way to go Islanders!!!!!
Islanders fans dont deserve an NHL team. They bitch, moan and complain about everything. At the same time home game attendance is a joke. Charles Wang should move the franchise to Kansas City ASAP. Ive heard that is a very real possiblity of the Lighthouse project falls through. Hockey fans in Kansas City are far more deserving than Long Island hockey fans.
"Islanders fans dont deserve an NHL team. They bitch, moan and complain about everything. At the same time home game attendance is a joke."
Of course we complain, God hasn't struck Mike Milbury down yet, and what have we had to not bitch about. As for attendence, the Colliseum is the smallest hockey venue by more than 2,000. So of course when it is averaged out, even if they sold out all of there games, it would still show there avg. game attendence towards the bottom of the NHL.
As for the team, I don't know what to do. Even if we managed to get a playoff birth with what we have now, it will be as an 8th seed. Unless the Isles play .500 hockey and go on one or two good 5-6 game win streaks.
Mike F. you are right on the money. Even if the Isles make the playoffs as the #8 seed, they'll get bounced in the first round. This should provide more of an incentive to bring the young guys up to see if they can play in this league. Get rid of the veteran forwards and gain some experience. I think the team would draw interest just from that and I'm sure they'd be more fun to watch.
Hey Greg - thanks for the latest analysis. Might you have been reading some of the comments to your prior post? You make quite a few good points. But some perhaps aren't so good.
"Remember, this is a new regime. They want to win now, but as Nolan said, they also want to build a solid foundation for the future... Is a short-term gamble worth it? If one of them [Nilsson, Tambellini, etc.] came up and flopped, would it ruin his trade value? Consider everything."
The potential for diminished trade value as justification for leaving the kids in Bridgeport is silly at best. That reasoning would only have merit if Snow hadn’t really had a chance to see them operate even at the AHL level. But he has. So this logic only works if Snow only intends on using them as trade bait. As I said, silly at best.
“As long as they’re in control of the puck, the Islanders look good on the power play.”
Huh? Looking good on the PP means scoring goals on the PP. They can throw the puck around from now until the cows come home – but the bottom line is that their PP lacks play-making and imagination. The assistant coaches become suspect for this flaw since the Islanders top players are talented enough to produce better scoring chances than we’ve seen. Show me a back-door play. Show me an offensive zone entry play. I haven’t seen anything like that yet.
Another reason to love Milbury ...
Zach Parise wins MVP in the young stars game (2g 4a) while Robert Nilsson appearantly doesn't have the "grit" needed to play for these Islanders ...what a joke ...
Campoli had better D point totals last year than most of the Young Stars playing in the Dallas yesterday. Another Islander botched marketing opportunity. If you're really loooking for some offensive punch, you should have Campoli in the top four pairings and on the PP.
Jason did us proud last night. Two assists in only 12+ minutes on the #4 line. Good show Jason.
Most of the Soundtiger players haven't shown that they're ready for the NHL this season. Nilsson has had back spasms all season, left last night's game after the 2nd period so there isn't much of a chance he'd be effective joining the big club. As far as Campoli, he left the STigers after his conditioning stint a -11 and his play was bad, borderline awful. Lots of turn overs and bad decision making. He was probably the weakest defensement on the soundtigers during that time
Campoli should have never been with Bridgeport this year in the first place. He more than earned his way to the big club last year. Now to hear Logan say it's a salary cap move according to Snow is insulting. If the Islanders were really worried about salary; why didn't Snow do the same paperwork shuffle with Gervais at Xmas and the AllStar break??? He's on a two way deal too. There's a real story to check out for the readers Greg!!!