Campus Confidential

By Adam Abramson

A few weeks ago I ventured over to Ed McNamara's desk to ask a long, long-time student and observer of sports handicapping an important question.

"Ed, what's a good success rate for picking against the spread?"

"Anything above 53% is worth talking about. Where are you for the season?"

"54…"

Saved by the bell, huh? I would like to be at least 60%, but I'll take anything above 53…especially after this crazy year.

But it's not over yet.

Countless hours and several thousand words later, I bring you the 2007-2008 bowl preview.

Later I will post some analysis of my picks and in a few weeks time we'll see if this mess was worth my time. Until then, enjoy, comment, drop me a line if you see any errors (editing 7k of your own words isn't easy).

Click here to see all of the previews/picks on one page.

Utah (8-4) vs. Navy (8-4)
December 20, 9 p.m. (ESPN)

Anything else that Navy accomplished this year pales in comparison to its win over Notre Dame.

Paul Johnson leaving the Midshipmen is quite a blow to the program, he's a fantastic football coach and has done wonders with a program lacking the talent of nearly every other FBS team.

I'm sure they want to begin a new era coming off a bowl win. But Utah has some impressive wins including Louisville and a trouncing of UCLA.

The Utes have been pretty good at stopping the run this year, ranking 35 in that department. Their opponents average about 36 carries a game, but they better be ready for at least 60. Navy takes pretty good care of the football, but should they start turning it over, they won't have much of a chance.

The line: Utah -7
The pick: Utah

Memphis (7-5) vs. Florida Atlantic (7-5)
December 21, 8 p.m. (ESPN2)

I couldn't be any less interested in this game. Seriously, name two players in this game. DeAngelo Williams graduated two years ago, that doesn't count.

That might be harsh, but it's true.

Here's a stat: Five of Memphis' seven wins are by a combined 13 points. That includes the triple overtime thriller against Southern Methodist.

Four of FAU's seven wins are by a combined 19, including a fourth-quarter comeback over Arkansas State.

Getting my drift?

As for those two players? I'll give you a few, should you choose to watch.

Memphis senior quarterback Martin Hankins actually runs the country's #12 pass unit by throwing to sophomore Duke Calhoun (great name). If the Tigers could actually play defense, Hankins to Calhoun could be the solid base for any team.

In what's turning into a game of great names, Owls quarterback Rusty Smith might take the cake. The sophomore spreads the wealth on offense, but it stops about there. FAU doesn't run the ball all too well. Which is a shame, because Memphis is completely inept at stopping that part of an offense.

The line: Florida Atlantic -2.5
The pick: Memphis

Southern Miss (7-5) vs. Cincinnati (9-3)
December 22, 1 p.m. (ESPN2)

Larry Fedora is now the head coach of the fighting Brett Farves, and he'll have his hands full in his first task.

The Bearcats put together a fantastic season with wins over South Florida and Rutgers to brag about. Each of their losses were by just a score (West Virginia, Louisville and Pitt).

Cincy quarterback Ben Mauk, one of the country's top passers, will have a party against a very average pass defense.

The Bearcats got it done this year with special teams and turnovers, in addition to Mauk. Southern Miss makes its offensive bones running the ball with Damion Fletcher, which is almost a blessing in disguise for Cincy, who cannot stop the pass.

The line: Cincinnati -10.5
The pick: Cincinnati

Nevada (6-6) vs. New Mexico (8-4)
December 22, 4:30 p.m. (ESPN2)

I was excited until I remembered Chase Holbrook is the quarterback of New Mexico State, not the Lobos.

But then I got somewhat excited to see New Mexico running back Rodney Ferguson in action. OK, that's a lie, but he's not playing anyway because he's academically ineligible.

So that leaves me with pretty much nothing.

Nevada almost was a huge deal this year, believe it or not. You don't have to think that far back, but remember how Nevada came within 11 seconds of beating Hawaii a week before Thanksgiving? I remember. I do.

Four of Nevada's losses, including Hawaii, come by a combined 12 points. That includes the 4-OT heart breaker against Boise State that finished at 69-67.

All of that means is that Nevada's playing in the Almost Blew Up The BCS Bowl instead of a New Years Eve game on blue turf. Shame.

As for that New Mexico team, their decent defense overcomes a pretty woeful offense. Somehow the Lobos figured out ways to beat Arizona and Air Force (hint: it was defense).

So if Nevada takes care of the ball, freshman QB Colin Kaepernick should earn his fifth victory of the season.

The line: New Mexico -3.5
The pick: Nevada

UCLA (6-6) vs. BYU (10-2)
December 22, 8 p.m. (ESPN)

A bowl rematch. Awesome. The first time around, UCLA jumped out to a 20-0 lead and was able to hold on.

Another bowl game marked with a coaching change. Get used to it. Karl Dorrell is out and the Bruins, who have yet to fill the coaching void, have to face a very tough BYU team.

The Wagons are rolling in the right direction in Provo. Two 10-win seasons in as many years is impressive for a team that's not afraid to play schools from BCS conferences.

As for UCLA, it's time for a entirely new direction. After beating BYU back in September, the Bruins climbed to #11 before getting demolished by Utah. And we all know the rest of the story for 6-6 UCLA.

The Cougars actually rank high in most statistical categories on both sides of the ball, including a Top 15 offense and Top 10 defense.

Jan Jorgensen averages about a sack a game and should harrass Patrick Cowan (or Ben Olson) all evening.

And UCLA's defense? It's not bad, but sophomore quarterback Max Hall has been solid in his first year of action. If he keeps the turnovers down and Harvey Unga hits his average of 100 yards on the ground (falling behind early resulted in 5 carries in the first meeting) BYU should have little trouble exacting some revenge.

The line: BYU -5.5
The pick: BYU

Boise State (10-2) vs. East Carolina (7-5)
December 23, 8 p.m. (ESPN)

The Johnson bowl.

East Carolina will have its hands full with Ian Johnson, who put himself on the map in last year's Fiesta Bowl. He's coming off another impressive season and will shred up the country's 53rd ranked rushing defense.

Boise State will have its hands full with Chris Johnson, who is the country's top all purpose runner with 212 yards per game.

So what gives? Well, there's much more surrounding Boise's Johnson. A top 20 defense leads a 10-win team that will make it 11 after a win over the Pirates.

The line: Boise State -10.5
The pick: Boise State

Central Michigan (8-5) vs. Purdue (7-5)
December 26, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)

A rare bowl rematch.

The first time around Purdue cruised, but much has changed since September. So will that have any bearing on the game?

We've talked about CMU quarterback Dan LeFevour on this blog before, but he'll be facing Curtis Painter, who loves to put on passing clinics as he did in week 3 against CMU (29-39, 360, 3 TDs).

LeFevour completed 66 percent of his passes this season, an improvement from his freshman year. But where he made his biggest improvement was on the ground, amassing 1,008 yards and 17 touchdowns (awful close to joining Tebow on that 20-20 plateau, huh?). But the man has to get his interceptions down (13, compared with 26 TDs). If you didn't last year, watch this guy.

Obviously, CMU cannot let Purdue jump out to a 38-point lead this time around. However, that might not be easy considering the Chippewas have one of the worst defenses in the country -- but I'm going with LeFevour.

The line: Purdue -8
The pick: Central Michigan

Arizona State (10-2) vs. Texas (9-3)
December 27, 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Dennis Erickson is back in the bowls and should be involved with a fun one this year.

I'm very curious to see how Jamaal Charles will hold up against Arizona State's solid rush defense. The junior averaged 8.3 yards per carry and posted eight touchdowns in his final four games. He picked up the slack that Colt McCoy created with his sophomore slump. McCoy wasn't detrimental to the Longhorns, who were still one of the country's best offenses, but his TDs were down and interceptions were way up.

Where the Longhorns have most suffered is on defense. Texas has a defense ranked outside the top 50 for the first time this decade. In fact, every other defense dating back to 2000 has ranked in the top 25. Any other year, you would say that Texas is toast (no pun intended) against Arizona State. But this year's brand of Sun Devils isn't all offense.

Rudy Carpenter has been very efficient and effective leading Arizona State, but it's the defense that has been the backbone of this year's team. Erickson is going to throw everything he can at Charles, the way he did against Oregon. But does Texas have enough to overcome that hurdle the way the Ducks did?

The line: Texas -2.5
The pick: Arizona State

Boston College (10-3) vs. Michigan State (7-5)
December 28, 5 p.m. (ESPN)

Again, one of these No. 2 teams that will be able to enjoy New Years eve on their own terms because their bowl game will be history.

Everyone is looking to Matt Ryan in this game, the fantastic senior quarterback at Boston College. Ryan has garnered tons of attention and headlines this year with spectacular comebacks, great poise and NFL-appealing intangibles. However, his numbers aren't great, at all. He's completed 60 percent of his passes and thrown 18 interceptions. Of the top 100 passers in the country (Ryan is ranked 57th), only four guys have more interceptions than him.

What does all of that mean? Don't expect Ryan to torch the Spartans for insane numbers. If Boston College is going to win this game, it's going to be with its defense, which is incredible at stopping the run.

The difference in this game will be the play of Brian Hoyer, the Michigan State junior quarterback. Will he be the gunslinger who threw four touchdowns to beat Penn State or the QB who couldn't lead the Spartans to a win over Northwestern?

If he's the former, it'll allow Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick to get some breathing room and keep Matt Ryan on the sidelines.

Honestly, what does BC play for at this point?

The line: Boston College -3
The pick: Michigan State

TCU (7-5) vs. Houston (8-4)
December 28, 8 p.m. (NFL Network)

One of the country's top offenses against one of the country's top defenses. We see it all the time.

Houston runs an awesome offense featuring Anthony Alridge and his 130 yards per game at tailback and Case Keenum at quarterback. The freshman completed 70 percent of his passes, but his interceptions were a little high. The Cougars are absolutely relentless on offense and rank No. 7 in time of possession. They need to keep Texas Christian's stellar defense on the field and wear it down.

Houston's defense is middle of the road and should have no problem stopping a Horned Frogs' offense that lacks playmakers.

I know Kevin Sumlin took over the job no more than a week ago, but when you're offense is that good, you can run it in your sleep.

The line: Texas Christian -4
The pick: Houston

Maryland (6-6) vs. Oregon State (8-4)
December 28, 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Maryland sneaks into a bowl game after an absolutely mediocre, inconsistent season. Lose to Clemson one week, North Carolina the next, bounce back to beat Boston College, then fall against Florida State.

The duo of Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball are a base for the Terps offense, but Chris Turner is learning the quarterback position on the fly, which allows defenses to focus on the running backs. Oregon State will undoubtedly do this, considering the Beavers boast the country's No. 2 rush defense.

Oregon State will rely on that defense, because the offense is bland. Outside of Yvenson Bernard, there is little to discuss. Bernard averages over 100 yards a game, and if he can maneuver his way through a defense anchored by the talented linebacker E.J. Henderson, Oregon State should be fine in this game.

The line: Oregon State -5
The pick: Oregon State

Connecticut (9-3) vs. Wake Forest (8-4)
December 29, 1 p.m. (ESPN)

Two scrappy football teams should make for a pretty good football game.

Connecticut coach Randy Edsall has done a fantastic job with the Huskies this year and would love to cap it off with a bowl victory and 10-win season.

Wake Forest is another team that brings little to the table when you're talking offense. Losing Chris Barclay after the 2006 season was a big blow and hurt quarterback Riley Skinner's output. Wake Forest ranks 94 in passing offense and 72 in running the ball. But the Deacons show up to play defense and put forth a balanced attack. Alphonso Smith leads the country with eight interceptions.

Tyler Lorenzen, in his first year playing FBS football, hasn't been great, but hasn't hurt the Huskies by any means. He only threw five interceptions, but completed just 57 percent of his passes. If Lorenzen can get into a groove early by throwing a few screens to Andre Dixon, the Huskies could settle into this game with ease. Edsall needs to give Dixon at least 20 carries -- the three times he did this year, Dixon eclipsed 100 yards and UConn is 3-0.

The line: Wake Forest -2.5
The pick: Connecticut

Central Florida (10-3) vs. Mississippi State (7-5)
December 29, 4:30 p.m. (ESPN)

The Bulldogs are bowl eligible for the first time since 2000.

And their task isn't an easy one, as they'll get a healthy dose of Kevin Smith, the nation's leading rusher.

Smith has been a stud, attempting 20 carries in all but one game (the only time he he was held under 100 yards). Remember when everyone made a big stink about Penn State's Larry Johnson notching 2,000 yards? Well Smith has 2,448 this season. You read that right.

Mississippi State has a decent defense to counter its unbelievably bad offense, but the Bulldogs are great against the pass. And if you read the paragraph right above this one, you'll remember that the Knights run the ball until their opponent can't take it anymore.

The line: Central Florida -3
The pick: Central Florida

Penn State (8-4) vs. Texas A&M (7-5)
December 29, 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Dennis Franchoine is out and you have to hope that the Aggies will become tougher, because it's clear that a little toughness is what the Aggies missed this year.

But that doesn't come overnight.

A&M's offense lives and dies by the run, which is something Penn State is more than OK with. The Nittany Lions yield just 87 yards a game on the ground, that's sixth best in the country. Look no further than Maurice Evans, who is good for a sack per game. He constantly finds himself in the backfield, pitching fits for every offense he faces. But the true key to stopping the run is linebackers Dan Connor and Sean Lee. Each average over 10 tackles per game and are as active a tandem as any in the country. Connor may very well be the best linebacker in the coming NFL draft.

However, it's not all rainbows and roses for Penn State. Their senior quarterback repeatedly let the team down, hence the 8-4 record. The Penn State faithful were as patient as possible with Morelli, but completing less than 50% of your passes against Michgian one week and throwing three interceptions the following against Illinois doesn't help your case.

The only thing Morelli has going for his is that Texas A&M really hates to play defense (one of the worst units in the country). So, he should be able to go out on a winning note.

The line: Penn State -5.5
The pick: Penn State

Alabama (6-6) vs. Colorado (6-6)
December 30, 8 p.m.

New coach, same bowl for the Tide.

We said at the beginning of the year it would take some time, and we said it when the 'Tide beat Arkansas. But they'll get there.

Nick Saban inherited a defense that's already pretty good, so expect it to be back in the top 10 within just a few years.

Alabama is 6-6 because of the offense, a unit that will go as far as John Parker Wilson will take it -- which is not very far. But this isn't a state of the program, it's how will Bama do in the Independence Bowl? D.J. Hall is one of the best receivers in the country, but will be blanketed by Terrence Wheatley, so it'll be up to Wilson to get the ball to Matt Caddell and Terry Grant on underneath routes.

Well, against Colorado, you have two very vanilla teams playing each other. Cody Hawkins leads a Buffalo offense that offers little outside of running back Hugh Charles. Quarterback Cody Hawkins is just a freshman, so it's important to establish the offense on the ground.

But the defense in this game is defense. Alabama has a unit, while Colorado centers everything around Jordan Dizon and Wheatley.

The line: Alabama -3.5
The pick: Alabama

California (6-6) vs. Air Force (9-3)
December 31, 12:30 p.m. (ESPN)

After rising to No. 2 in the country, the Bears lost six of their final seven games. You read that correctly.

Despite having weapons such as DeSean Jackson and Justin Forsett on offense, the unit ranked No. 59 in the country in total yards and scoring. Why? Well junior quarterback Nate Longshore was terrible after missing the Oregon State game (Cal's first loss). In his final six games this season (1-5), he threw for nine touchdowns and 11 picks. I told you it was bad.

Air Force, on the other hand, is playing in its first bowl in five years. The Falcons are the No. 2 rushing attack among service academies this season, which might not seem like an important stat. But, the top 2 rushing teams in the country are service academies, so there you go.

Senior Chad Hall is a beast and is ranked third in all-purpose yards. At just 5'8", 180, he averages almost seven yards per carry. Numbers DeSean Jackson should be bragging about -- he's not even the team's leading receiver (an honor reserved for Lavelle Hawkins).

Despite all of that, Cal is still the favorite in this game and I'm inclined to pick them. But why should the Bears care about winning this game? Pride is long gone.

The line: California -3.5
The pick: Air Force

South Florida (9-3) vs. Oregon (8-4)
December 31, 2 p.m. (CBS)

A pair of former No. 2-ranked teams play for the mighty Sun Bowl title. Ouch.

Let's take a look at the falls and see if we can come up with anything.

For South Florida, it was a three-game skid against Rutgers, Connecticut and Cincinnati. Two years ago you would have scoffed at that trio, but as we've seen this year, all are very respectable football teams. During that span, quarterback Matt Grothe, who had been solid as rock until, three seven interceptions and just two touchdowns.

For Oregon, it's simple. Dennis Dixon's knee gave up and everything went south thereafter. First Brady Leaf was completely ineffective while playing hurt. Then Cody Kempt stepped in and couldn't get the job done. Finally Justin Roper tried his darndest to pick up a Civil War victory, but fell short in overtime. The result was a big 0-3 to wrap up the season and a whole bunch of "what could have beens" for the holidays.

But for the Sun Bowl we'll have Brady Leaf. No matter who it is, outstanding tailback Jonathan Stewart needs at least 30 carries, and he'll have his work cut out for him. South Florida has a Top 20 run defense and knows Oregon will have to run the ball, so they'll put defenders in the box until it busts at the seams. And this defense is fantastic at staying disciplined and finishing tackles.

One thing that Cincy, UConn and Rutgers have in common is the ability to stand tall on defense and get Grothe into a frenzy. I'm not sure Oregon can accomplish this, as the defense gave up almost 30 points a game in those losses. With Dixon mixing it up on offense, the Ducks could keep that defense on the sidelines and keep up with any of their mishaps. Not so much anymore.

The line: South Florida -6.5
The pick: South Florida

Georgia Tech (7-5) vs. Fresno State (8-4)
December 31, 2 p.m. (ESPN2)

Fresno has nothing to frown at, with their losses coming to Hawaii, Boise State, Texas A&M (in triple overtime) and Oregon.

But if you look at those four losses, there's a common denominator: Big rushing performances.

This is Georgia Tech's forte. Tashard Choice is one of the country's better running backs you may have not heard of. Bottled up just one time this year, Choice is the lone reason Georgia Tech's offense can be taken seriously. Taylor Bennett, the incumbent to the unpopular Reggie Ball, was highly ineffective this year, completing under 50 percent of his passes and throwing for just six touchdowns (and nine interceptions).

Let me backtrack a little bit. Georgia Tech's true forte of 2007 has defense. The Jackets give up fewer than 20 points per game and average four sacks a game. And they come at you from all sides, the Yellow Jackets swarm, if you will (sorry). Vance Walker, Darrell Robertson and Philip Wheeler will keep the heat up on Bulldogs QB Tom Brandstater, surely leading to some serious turnovers (Fresno State has a horrid turnover margin of -.75, large in part to them forcing just 12).

With Choice and that defense, there's no reason the Jackets win this game by anything less than a touchdown.

The line: Georgia Tech -6
The pick: Georgia Tech

Kentucky (7-5) vs. Florida State (7-5)
December 31, 4 p.m. (ESPN)

Florida State will be playing with a somewhat depleted roster. Before all of this surfaced, I actually liked Florida State's aggressive defense matched up against Andre Woodson.

But Bobby Bowden has to take the team's focus off practice to sort out who cheated and who didn't.

Next to a coach bailing out and heading north, this is disastrous for any team. Florida State better realize its lucky that this is the Music City Bowl and not the Orange Bowl.

The line: Kentucky -4
The pick: Kentucky

Indiana (7-5) vs. Oklahoma State (6-6)
December 31, 6 p.m. (NFL Network)

Indiana is one of the best stories this season and nobody is talking about it. The Hoosiers lost their coach, Terry Hoeppner, in the offseason, and the team rallied to accomplish the goal he wanted so much -- to play in a bowl game. The last time IU played in a bowl game, Bill Clinton was in his first term as president. So this is a big deal.

Indiana quarterback Kellen Lewis has been a bright spot in Bloomington. He put up 34 total touchdowns and almost 300 yards a game. James Hardy emerged as one of the best playmakers in the country, and is as dangerous as a receiver can get in the red zone. The 6'7" target has 16 touchdowns and 74 catches. Oklahoma State will miss Martel Van Zant, the cornerback would have found himself shadowing Hardy if not for an ankle injury.

Lewis is going to be a nightmare for a nightmarish Cowboys defense. Mike Gundy's team is one of the worst in the country against the pass, so if Lewis tucks and takes off, how will the secondary respond? Will they break down and leave Hardy wide open for a pass just before Lewis crosses the line of scrimmage?

But OSU has a lot of weapons of its own. Dantrell Savage averages 117 yards per game and quarterback Zac Robinson has established himself as a homerun hitter on offense. What will happen when Robinson leaves the pocket? Will the IU defense let Adarius Bowman run free? He might be one of the best wide receivers in the country.

All I know is, when James Hardy hauls in a touchdown, I wouldn't want to be on the receiving end of an awkward Gundy tirade.

The line: Oklahoma State -4
The pick: Indiana

Clemson (9-3) vs. Auburn (8-4)
December 31, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Talk about two similar teams.

First, they're both Tigers.

Second, they both tout orange as a color.

Third, their coaches briefly flirted with that Arkansas vacancy. Oh, and they're both named Tommy.

Fourth, both play outstanding defense.

And that's what this game will be about. Both defenses are sure to bend, but will one of them break? At first glance, you would think it would be Auburn's, considering Clemson will throw James Davis and C.J. Spiller at Will Muschamp's defense. But the two haven't been stellar this year and Auburn handled Darren McFadden and Felix Jones just fine in a 9-7 win during the season.

While it was supposed to be Spiller and Davis, quarterback Cullen Harper has been the one putting up numbers for Clemson, completing 67% of his passes while throwing for 27 touchdowns and just six interceptions.

Clemson is actually a decent football team that was awfully close to playing for the ACC title. I'll take them over an Auburn team with virtually no offense.

The line: Clemson -2.5
The pick: Clemson

Wisconsin (9-3) vs. Tennessee (9-4)
January 1, 11 a.m. (ESPN)

Wisconsin, who has been a model of consistency the last four years, has reached 40 wins over that span. This year has to be viewed as a success when you consider two of the team's three losses came against teams in the BCS (Ohio State and Illinois).

As for Tennessee, a trip to the SEC title game undoubtedly makes the season a memorable one.

But both schools lack a lot of "wow." Tennessee doesn't rank in the Top 50 on total offense or defense. Wisconsin is ranked outside the Top 35 in both of those categories.

That's not the only thing in common here. Both have senior quarterbacks in Tyler Donovan (Wisconsin) and Erik Ainge (Tennessee).

Both have had their ups and downs this year and have been very mediocre. Donovan passed for just 16 touchdowns, completing just 58 percent of his passes. And it wouldn't be nearly that good if he wasn't throwing to Travis Beckum, one of the best tight ends in the country. Beckum is a glorified flexible wide receiver, he can line up in the slot, next to a tackle or split wide.

But Wisconsin gets it done running the football with P.J. Hill, who's been dinged up, but should be ready to roll on Jan. 1.

But I don't know if it will be enough, as Tennessee offers more weapons on offense with Ainge throwing to Lucas Taylor, Austin Rogers and Josh Briscoe. And when Ainge isn't spreading the ball around, Arian Foster has provided a lot of umph on the ground. Tennessee started the year with three very capable backs in Foster, Montario Hardesty and LaMarcus Coker, who has since left the team. Foster needs 20-25 touches in order for UT to be successful. This season he averaged 17 carries per game, but over five yards per carry, so he gets the job done.

Because Wisconsin can focus its efforts on covering Beckum, and force Donovan to look elsewhere, the entire offense will suffer as a whole. Whereas Tennessee is the best in the country at protecting its quarterback, giving Ainge time to engineer the offense.

Last year I picked Tennessee to beat a Big 10 team in this game and I got burned, here's to hoping it doesn't happen twice.

The line: Tennessee -2.5
The pick: Tennessee

Missouri (11-2) vs. Arkansas (8-4)
January 1, 11:30 a.m. (Fox)

The Tigers must stop worrying over the fact they missed out on the BCS, because if they fret too much, they'll lose the Cotton Bowl. Arkansas has no problem taking down the giant. See LSU triple overtime win.

With Darren McFadden likely playing in his last game, I'm sure he'll like to go out with a bang and a little "maybe I should have won the Heisman one of those two years." And if he's not up to the task, I'd bet that Felix Jones is ready to show everyone he's ready to step in for Run DMC and dominate in the same fashion.

I'm curious to see if Houston Nutt's departure to Ole Miss will change the lay of the land in Fayetteville. New coach Bobby Petrino has a pretty good offensive track record, so you know he'll have a few tricks up his sleeve.

But McFadden isn't the only guy in this game who was up for the Heisman. Missouri's Chase Daniel and his teammates have an agenda of their own, I hinted at it in the first graph. Actually, I said it in the first graph. The Tigers have the biggest gripe of anyone in college football, because they really should be playing in a BCS game.

Daniel leads an offense that has some impressive weapons in Jeremy Maclin and Martin Rucker. Arkansas will have its hands full with two completely different passing attack weapons. Maclin can line up anywhere on the field and make a play, while Rucker will line up right in front of you, challenge you to beat him, then beat you. Does Arkansas have the balance and discipline on defense to neutralize two different styles on offense? They did beat LSU in a barn-burner, but LSU has tons of flash on offense, sometimes doing it the old fashioned way causes as many fits as the new-age wrinkles on offense.

This might be one of the more interesting games of the bowl season.

The line: Missouri -3
The pick: Arkansas

Virginia (9-3) vs. Texas Tech (8-4)
January 1, 1 p.m. (CBS)

This is not a good matchup for Virginia. Then again, is this a good matchup for anyone?

But it's really bad for Virginia. At first glance you might say "Well, UVa has the 33rd-ranked pass defense, that's not terrible." However, as we've discussed all year, there's always more than what meets the eye.

Of Virginia's 12 opponents, North Carolina State is the only Top 50 passing team it faced (45th). The average passing offense ranking of a Virginia opponent this season is 85. Texas Tech is No. 1, ouch.

Who is going to cover stud freshman Michael Crabtree? Ras-I Dowling, a true freshman, could take this task. He suffered a concussion in the season finale, but has been given the green light. So if Dowling is on Crabtree, who will cover Danny Amendola (fourth in the country in receiving)? And is someone going to be able to limit Eric Morris to his season average of five grabs per game? Because that's a priority as well.

Virginia's 3-4 is going to have to put some serious pressure on Graham Harrell, but that's not exactly easy -- he's been sacked just 15 times this year.

The Red Raiders do give up a fair amount of yards and points on defense, but Virginia's offense isn't the reason it won five games by two points or less.

Tailback Mikell Simpson is the Cavaliers' hope to staying in this ballgame, but it's not likely UVa will score more than 28 points. And Texas Tech scored less than 30 just twice this season (Virginia eclipsed that mark just twice).

Generally, I'll take a good defense over a good offense, but the mismatches throw that theory out the window.

The line: Texas Tech -6
The pick: Texas Tech

Michigan (8-4) vs. Florida (9-3)
January 1, 1 p.m. (ABC)

With everyone trying to figure out what the heck is going on in Ann Arbor and Morgantown, Lloyd Carr has been quietly preparing to coach in his final game for the Wolverines.

Down in Florida, Urban Meyer had a busy start to December with college football awards and the Heisman.

If you take away the App State loss, Michigan would have had a decent season (losses against Oregon, at nine-win Wisconsin and Ohio State). And, surprisingly, it's because the defense has been solid, especially against the pass. This is a unit that suffered a huge overhaul after last season (Alan Branch, Leon Hall, David Harris, LaMarr Woodley, Prescott Burgess, etc.) and rebounded to be a defense Top 10 against the pass. Should credit go to my boy Ron English? I think so.

But that offense? Man, I expected so much that I ranked the Wolverines No. 2 in the preseason. I was so sure that a senior quarterback, running back, monster offensive tackle and fantastic wide receivers could get it done. It should be mentioned that the group had its share of injuries, but it still managed to rank 74 in total offense, 73 in passing offense and 44 in rushing.

And Florida, another team who had a defensive overhaul, played pretty good on that side of the ball this season with a lot of new talent. Guys like Brandon Spikes, Dustin Doe, Major Wright (great name), Wondy Pierre-Louis, Jermaine Cunningham and Justin Trattou are names you should get familiar with.

But, it's all about Florida's offense and its Heisman winner. It's what will give the Gators a win in this one.

The line: Florida -10
The pick: Florida

Illinois (9-3) vs. USC (10-2)
January 1, 4:30 p.m. (ABC)

Everyone is talking about Southern California clicking at the right time and being arguably the hottest team in the country. But I think they are forgetting that this is a team that didn't look all too amazing in a 17-point win over a UCLA team that has been flawed all season. Shouldn't the hottest team in the country have its way in a game like that, rivalry or not?

I'm not saying the Trojans are anything less than fantastic on the football field, but they're like any other good football team in the country this year. Just good. Not great.

Pete Carroll did rely on a lot of young talent that matured in the second half of the season, especially at wide receiver. This will be such a dangerous group, if the quarterback position can continue to produce without John David Booty next year.

But what about wrapping up this year? How will USC fare against Illinois' own core of young talent. Juice Williams is developing his connection with Arrelious Benn. We heard that pair come up a lot on the highlight reels a lot this year because they had a knack for big plays, but the stats won't blow your hair back.

But no matter what Ron Zook throws at USC, the Trojans will counter with their No. 2 defense that has weapons from top to bottom. If LSU doesn't have the best front seven in the country, it's because USC's is better. If you get by Lawrence Jackson and Sedrick Ellis then you'll have to deal with Keith Rivers, Brian Cushing, Rey Maualuga, Taylor Mays and Kevin Ellison. Good luck with that.

The line: Southern California -13.5
The pick: Tough line...Illinois (USC to win)

Hawaii (12-0) vs. Georgia (10-2)
January 1, 8 p.m. (Fox)

I've been extremely critical of Hawaii all season and now that it's all said and done, I just feel the Warriors don't belong in this game. I've shown you the numbers, but I'll show them again: five wins by a combined 24 points over teams with a 28-33 record. This team is a far cry from the 2006 Boise State Fiesta Bowl champions. Are they entertaining to watch on offense? There's no question, but I question the overall depth and talent on the roster -- something I don't question from one of the SEC's fastest teams.

What are the Warriors going to do when the Bulldogs line up and slam Knowshon Moreno and Thomas Brown at them for three and a half hours? Are they going to stack the box to neutralize their speed and strength? If so, can they handle Mohammad Massaquoi with single coverage on the outside? Matthew Stafford has made finding his favorite target look easy this season, especially after Moreno and Brown start piling on the yards.

While I give credit to Colt Brennan and June Jones for their mastery on offense, it's not foolproof. It's not unstoppable. It's found many lulls this season, but each time Hawaii has found a way to get back into the game and take care of business. But this isn't Louisiana Tech, San Jose State or Washington. UGA coach Mark Richt oversees a unit that is ready to end a dream season.

The line: Georgia -7
The pick: Georgia

West Virginia (10-2) vs. Oklahoma (11-2)
January 2, 8 p.m. (Fox)

We're about two weeks from kickoff and we're not sure who will be coaching the Mountaineers. Very strange.

There's really not much to say except that Oklahoma is going to romp a confused, direction-less team.

Oklahoma will not leave Arizona a loser this time around. I'd jump all over this line.

But it wouldn't be fair if I didn't give out some props, considering I've done as much for the Air Forces and Tulsas of the bowl lineup.

Sam Bradford, Oklahoma's quarterback, has the chance to continue an already dream season for a freshman. He's the country's top passer and will have a field day if his running backs Allen Patrick and Chris Brown can establish some presence on the ground.

And the Sooners' front four is a group you better get used to. Auston English, Gerald McCoy and DeMarcus Granger are all underclassmen and will make sure they introduce themselves to Steve Slaton quickly.

The line: Oklahoma -7.5
The pick: Oklahoma

Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. Kansas (11-1)
January 3, 8 p.m. (Fox)

I can think of two good ways to stop a spread offense. Two All-American caliber cornerbacks paired up with one of the country's top front seven units. Luckily for Virginia Tech, they possess both of those assets. Junior corners Brandon Flowers and Macho Harris have first round talent and could be hearing their names called this spring (lot of rumors out there that this will be their last game). And that front seven? End Chris Ellis and linebackers Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall have been front and center on stat sheets in every Virginia Tech win this season.

Sophomore quarterback Todd Reesing is going to have his hands full with this unit. He was lucky to escape playing Oklahoma's powerful defense, but it had to catch up to him. He had to play someone that would pose a threat to what has been a very good season for the first-year starter.

The Hokies have improved week-to-week, especially after the loss to Boston College in Blacksburg midway through the season. Tech has found ways to overcome the talent of BC's Matt Ryan and Clemson's Cullen Harper, so stopping Reesing isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Kansas does feature a highly-ranked defense, but who have the Jayhawks stopped? Their schedule is among the weakest in the country and Kansas has virtually no wins to brag about. The chance to make a statement came against Missouri, and we all know what happened there. So will Kansas be able to slow down Tech's four wide receivers that have become comfortable with quarterbacks Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor? Kansas has a fantastic corner in Aqib Talib, but he cannot cover Josh Morgan, Justin Harper, Eddie Royal and Josh Hyman all at once. And will the Jayhawks respond when Taylor displays his ability to take off from the pocket and pick up huge chunks of yards with his legs?

The ultimate determiner in this game is experience. Virginia Tech has taken its lumps against LSU and BC, but has laid thumps on the Eagles, Virginia, Clemson, Florida State and Georgia Tech. Kansas' big wins over bowl teams came against Central Michigan, 6-6 Colorado, 6-6 Oklahoma State and 7-5 Texas A&M.

The line: Virginia Tech -3.5
The pick: Virginia Tech

Rutgers (7-5) vs. Ball State (7-5)
January 5, Noon (ESPN2)

I'm sure the Scarlet Knights had their eyes on a post-New Years Day game, but the International Bowl wasn't the postcard they had hoped to send back to Piscataway. If Rutgers loses this game, the season is a complete failure.

Ball State is ranked 99th against the run, so facing Ray Rice isn't the best way for the Cardinals to enjoy Toronto. This is the unit that gave up 189 to Rashard Mendenhall of Illinois and 521 yards to Navy (160 yards more than the Navy average per game this season). Told you it wasn't pretty.

As for the other side of the ball, Ball State was impressive at times this season. Be it Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan, Toledo and Western Kentucky.

I think you're getting my drift here...

The line: Rutgers -10
The pick: Rutgers