South Florida (9-3) vs. Oregon (8-4)
December 31, 2 p.m. (CBS)
A pair of former No. 2-ranked teams play for the mighty Sun Bowl title. Ouch.
Let's take a look at the falls and see if we can come up with anything.
For South Florida, it was a three-game skid against Rutgers, Connecticut and Cincinnati. Two years ago you would have scoffed at that trio, but as we've seen this year, all are very respectable football teams. During that span, quarterback Matt Grothe, who had been solid as rock until, three seven interceptions and just two touchdowns.
For Oregon, it's simple. Dennis Dixon's knee gave up and everything went south thereafter. First Brady Leaf was completely ineffective while playing hurt. Then Cody Kempt stepped in and couldn't get the job done. Finally Justin Roper tried his darndest to pick up a Civil War victory, but fell short in overtime. The result was a big 0-3 to wrap up the season and a whole bunch of "what could have beens" for the holidays.
But for the Sun Bowl we'll have Brady Leaf. No matter who it is, outstanding tailback Jonathan Stewart needs at least 30 carries, and he'll have his work cut out for him. South Florida has a Top 20 run defense and knows Oregon will have to run the ball, so they'll put defenders in the box until it busts at the seams. And this defense is fantastic at staying disciplined and finishing tackles.
One thing that Cincy, UConn and Rutgers have in common is the ability to stand tall on defense and get Grothe into a frenzy. I'm not sure Oregon can accomplish this, as the defense gave up almost 30 points a game in those losses. With Dixon mixing it up on offense, the Ducks could keep that defense on the sidelines and keep up with any of their mishaps. Not so much anymore.
The line: South Florida -6.5
The pick: South Florida