Campus Confidential

By Adam Abramson

I actually think the West is the bracket Florida, as the top overall seed, should have faced.

It’s easy when you compare the two regions. I decided to do it in the table below. Taking out the 15/16 seeds (because, who the hell knows really), I decided to take the seeds and use the NIT logic: Who would you rather avoid playing? The column on the right represents the better team:

Seed	Midwest	West	Better Team
1	Florida	Kansas	Midwest
2	Wisconsin	UCLA	West
3	Oregon	Pittsburgh	Midwest
4	Maryland	Southern Illinois	Midwest
5	Butler	Virginia Tech	West
6	Notre Dame	Duke	Midwest
7	UNLV	Indiana	Midwest
8	Arizona	Kentucky	Midwest
9	Purdue	Villanova	West
10	Georgia Tech	Gonzaga	Midwest
11	Winthrop	VCU	Midwest
12	Old Dominion	Illinois	West
13	Davidson	Holy Cross	Midwest
14	Miami (OH)	Wright State	West

Easier region: West.

Hypothetical games I originally marked as “draw” but forced myself to pick: Oregon-Pittsburgh, Butler-Virginia Tech, UNLV-Indiana and Davidson-Holy Cross.

Anyway, let’s get familiar with the region. This time we’ll go with the Young Jeezy “Go Getta” player to watch: Use this info to sound smart in the office.

WEST

The region's best player: Brandon Rush, Kansas
The region's best team: UCLA
The region's sleeper(s): Holy Cross

No. 1 Kansas 29-5

It’s no big shocker that Kansas is 30-4. They have eight guys that play at least 15 minutes, five guys who are good for 10 a game and five guys who will rip down at least four boards a game. The Jayhawks have shown in the past, and this year, that the little guy can win (Oral Roberts and DePaul beat ’em this season), buuuut I think they’ll be fine.

Strength: Backcourt. So important in the Tournament. Brandon Rush and Mario Chalmers are cold (the good kind of cold…like ice water in the veins cold…not cold where they can’t hit a shot…but the other, just kidding).
Weakness: Free throws. 66%? Chances are I could go to any half-decent high school on LI and they make more than two thirds of their shots from the stripe.
The Young Jeezy “Go Getta” player to watch: So. F Julian Wright (12 ppg, 8 rpg, 2 apg)

No. 2 UCLA 26-5

It’s no secret that a Ben Howland club can play defense, so it shouldn’t be a shocker that opponents score just 60 a game on the Bruins. UCLA is limping into the tourney, with 40% of their losses coming in the last two games (if you’re too lazy to figure that out: they’ve lost their last two).

Strength: Spreading the wealth. This team passes a lot, and they’re good at it.
Weakness: Again, free throws. They’re even worse than Kansas. This could become a theme for this region (I know for a fact that the No. 5 seed is HORRIBLE from the line).
The Young Jeezy “Go Getta” player to watch: You’ll hear Aaron Afflalo a lot, but So. G Darren Collison is the guy (12.6 ppg, 2 rpg, 6 apg).

No. 3 Pittsburgh 27-7

I’ve watched the Panthers maybe three or four times this year and it’s safe to say they don’t go as big man Aaron Gray goes, he’ll get his numbers no matter what happens (except in the title game…1-13, yikes). It’s all about the decision making of the guards – which is pretty much backcourt by committee (but Levance Fields, Antonio Graves, Ronald Ramon and Mike Cook are all solid).

Strength: Defense. As is the case with the 2 and 4 seeds. The Panthers also take really good care of the ball.
Weakness: Leadership. Gray doesn’t have the outer fire. Who do they look to in the clutch? I should know the answer to this, but I don’t, which is a problem. (Oh, and free throws (67%).
The Young Jeezy “Go Getta” player to watch: Sr. C Aaron Gray (14 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 1.6 apg – 56% FG)

No. 4 Southern Illinois 27-6

In the Saluki’s six losses this year, their point totals at the half reached thirty a grand total of zero times (28 vs. Evansville, 28 vs. Creighton, 26 vs. Arkansas, 23 vs. Indiana, 23 vs. Northern Illinois and 21 vs. Bradley). Now SIU doesn’t hang a ton of points on the board, but they can’t afford to get off to a lethargic start. Lack of execution on offense leak to the other end of the floor quickly.

Strength: Insane defense. Suffocating defense. Impregnable defense. Fourth in the country defense.
Weakness: Mr. Clutch. Jamaal Tatum is supposed to be that guy, and has the potential to be that guy, but if he’s off and Randal Falker’s in foul trouble (4 or 5 fouls 12 times this year)…not good. (69% from the line)
The Young Jeezy “Go Getta” player to watch: Sr. G Jamaal Tatum (15 ppg, 3 rpg, 2.4 apg)

No. 5 Virginia Tech 21-11

This team can either reach the Elite 8 or get bumped in the first round. I’ve either watched or listened to 90% of Tech’s games this year and I don’t know what to say about the Hokies. They beat UNC twice, Duke, Maryland, Georgia Tech and Boston College, but lose to Marshall, Western Michigan and NC State three times…that about sums it up. Oh, they also lost to the No. 4 seed in this region, FYI.

Strength: Discipline. It all runs through Zabian Dowdell. Tech doesn’t really turn the ball over (ninth in the country in that stat) and will pick up about eight steals a game. Also, solid in transition.
Weakness: In addition to abysmal free throw shooting, Tech doesn’t have a very dynamic offense. Absolutely zero Tournament experience on the roster, zilch.
The Young Jeezy “Go Getta” player to watch: Sr. G Zabian Dowdell (18 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 3 apg, 3 spg). If you want to see some highlight dunks, watch out for Jr. F Deron Washington.

No. 6 Duke 22-10

I’ve long disliked the Duke program, so at first I thought my opinion was jaded. I couldn’t believe Duke earned a six seed. But then I listened to the analysis afterwards and I wasn’t alone. I felt more at peace. As I said to a coworker the other night, Duke earns three seeds just because of the name.

Strength: Defense. Not gonna get much from the Blue Devils. About 61.5 points a game…
Weakness: Shot selection. Because Duke is young, the Blue Devils will try and make unnecessary passes in hopes of getting a better shot. This turns into a lot of turnovers.
The Young Jeezy “Go Getta” player to watch: Sr. G DeMarcus Nelson (14.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2 apg)…I may not like Duke, but I love his game.

No. 7 Indiana 20-10

Another good defensive team: we’re 7-for-7 in that department in this region. Much like North Carolina is famous for, IU relies on 11 guys, each averaging at least nine minutes a game. Kelvin Sampson is building pretty quickly in Bloomington. If DJ White stays, the Hoosiers could do big things next year with Eric Gordon coming in…

Strength: The three. As a team, the Hoosiers shoot almost 40% from the big arch. They’re also good with the ball.
Weakness: Putting the other team on the line. About 21 fouls a game. (71% from the stripe…getting better).
The Young Jeezy “Go Getta” player to watch: Jr. F D.J. White (14 ppg, 7 rpg, 2 bpg)

No. 8 Kentucky 21-11

Does this mean Tubby Smith holds on to his job? It would have been a shame if UK missed the Tourney, Smith gets fired, but there could have been a chance had the ref had a soul and allowed the free throw against Mississippi State.

Strength: Taking smart shots. The Wildcats shoot almost 50% from the field as a team. Phenomenal stat.
Weakness: Turnovers. About 15 a game…and they don’t create many steals. (69% FT)
The Young Jeezy “Go Getta” player to watch: Jr. F/C Randolph Morris (16 ppg, 8 rpg, 2 bpg)

No. 9 Villanova 22-10

A lot of Wildcat action going on right now…Where would this team be without Scottie Reynolds? The freshman from Virginia has done his best to fill the void left by Lowry, Ray and Foye. He’s definitely the freshman that people talk about after Kevin Durant, Greg Oden, Brandan Wright, Ty Lawson, etc. etc. Watch Reynolds if you can though…tough as nails.

Strength: The glass. Villanova will generally have the edge when it comes to grabbing rebounds. Five guys who average at least three boards a game.
Weakness: Solid scoring options. The Wildcats have a few guys who can put the ball in the hoop, but when it’s time for a basket it’s Sumpter or it’s probably an unwise shot from one of the supporting cast.
The Young Jeezy “Go Getta” player to watch: Sr. F Curtis Sumpter (17 ppg, 7 rpg, 1 apg)

No. 10 Gonzaga 23-10

I worry about what the Bulldogs can do without Josh Heytvelt down low. Granted, they almost knocked off Memphis without him, but it’s going to require a lot of moxie to reach the Sweet 16, which would be a major accomplishment for this team. With Heytvelt out, Sean Mallon has become the workhorse inside. Let this serve as a lesson, happy smoke and ’shrooms lead to indefinite suspensions and more Sean Mallon.

Strength: FREE THROWS!! 17th in the country! Mark Few knows the secret.
Weakness: Defense. Wow, this team is the complete opposite of the others seeded above them.
The Young Jeezy “Go Getta” player to watch: Sr. G Derek Raivio (18 ppg, 3 rpg, 2.6 apg)

No. 11 Virginia Commonwealth 27-6

I’ll point out a funny statistic about VCU: It’s scoring margin of +10 is 22nd in the country. Number one? North Carolina at +18.6. Wow. The question is this: Would VCU had gotten if George Mason wins the conference tourney? I want to say no. While they finished 16-2 atop the standings in the Colonial, they beat NOBODY (Just ODU and Drexel).

Strength: Turnovers. Just 11 per game. As I’ve said earlier, that’s very low.
Weakness: Opposing field goal percentage. Which is strange because opponents average just 65, but shoot 45%...?
The Young Jeezy “Go Getta” player to watch: So. G Eric Maynor (13.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 6 apg)…solid player.

No. 12 Illinois 23-11

Another team in the West region that plays stifling defense. It’ll be interesting to see what the Illini do to slow down Tech in transition. For starters, their shot selection will have to be top notch. Brian Randle is the X-factor: he has to shut down Zabian Dowdell and force someone else on VT to beat them. They’re lucky to be in the field, they know it, but they have to show they can win big games.

Strength: As stated, defense. Ninth in the country in scoring defense, 34th in opposing FG%.
Weakness: Steals. Which is a bad matchup problem considering Tech doesn’t turn it over.
The Young Jeezy “Go Getta” player to watch: Sr. F Warren Carter (14 ppg, 5 rpg, 2 apg)

No. 13 Holy Cross 25-8

Surprise, surprise, the Crusaders play defense about as good as anyone in the country. Profound, I know. Tim Clifford needs to have a big game inside; I actually think Holy Cross has a pretty good shot here. The senior backcourt tandem of Keith Simmons and Torey Thomas play very well together…something you’ll find on a lot of Cinderella teams.

Strength: The Crusaders give up just 57 points a game. I’d say take the under in this game, but I’m sure Vegas has noticed the defensive matchup in this game.
Weakness: The perimeter. Holy Cross makes a hair over a third of their 3-pointers.
The Young Jeezy “Go Getta” player to watch: Sr. G Keith Simmons (17 ppg, 6 rpg, 2 apg)

No. 14 Wright State 23-9

The Raiders are doing something Wright (ziiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiing), because they beat Butler twice. Can you guess that something? Try defense. It’s 2 a.m. and I’m tired of typing that word.

Strength: Turnovers. 12.3 a game.
Weakness: Scoring options. Either Dashaun Wood scores or they hope they can get something out of the next five guys who average between 5 and 8.9 ppg.
The Young Jeezy “Go Getta” player to watch: Sr. G Dashaun Wood (20 ppg, 5 rpg, 4 bpg)

No. 15 Weber State 20-11

I almost picked the Wildcats to beat the best defensive team in the country, but then I realized they lost to Montana State and Montana in consecutive games.

Strength: Weber State actually shoots 50% from the floor. However, in a loss to Washington, they shot 35%...I wonder what will happen against the Bruins…
Weakness: Weber State total blocks this year (31 games): 75. Greg Oden total blocks this year (25 games): 88.
The Young Jeezy “Go Getta” player to watch: Sr. F David Patten (14.4 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1 apg)

No. 16 Florida A&M/Niagara

I would evaluate this game, but it’s 2 a.m. and I’m not going to. Sorry.

I think it’s safe to reveal my theory now: A lot of the conference champions from mid majors are going to be among the best in the defensive statistical categories because they play teams that have sad displays for offense.

Coming Tuesday morning: The East Region (the toughest by far).