Here's a short recruiting mailbag. I had hoped to get some more discussion going about 2002 and 2003, but I got enough to respond with a post, so here we go. The first topic I wanted to address was guys I left off my lists. Two of my readers mentioned Utah quarterback Alex Smith and Penn State linebacker Paul Posluszny.
I actually wrote back to the reader saying Alex Smith was a great pull, but I shortly realized after that he was a 2001 guy. However, had he been 2002, what an oversight. After researching him for a bit it seemed he didn't accrue many accolades coming out of Helix High School in California (played with Reggie Bush). If he had been a 2002 guy, what an oversight he would have been. Remember, he finished 4th in the Heisman race.
Posluszny is tough because one recruiting service had him at a 4-star, ranked the #20 linebacker in the country. Another had him as a 3-star. However, he far exceeded both rankings. I think it's pretty fair to say he was an oversight, but it's not like he was unheard of coming out of high school. I'll address this more below. But another great mention. Another one for 2002 is Levi Brown. I think it's fair we give him AT LEAST an honorable mention. The dude is a beast (big-time 4-star coming out of Norfolk, VA).
Someone asked me if I felt NFL scouts should look at recruiting information for when a player is coming out of high school, and I actually think that's kind of a wise idea.
I get into the discussion over the validity of recruiting rankings a lot because of the school I went to. Virginia Tech is notorious for recruiting guys, getting them into the strength and conditioning program and turning them into studs. Many Tech followers don't believe in the rankings/stars system. But think about this...how many GREAT Virginia Tech NFL players are there?
Michael Vick: Underrated coming out of HS, but not unheard of by any means
Kevin Jones: No. 1 RB in the country coming out of HS
DeAngelo Hall: Rated the #2 player in the state of Virginia in 2001
There are other solid players in the NFL from Virginia Tech that are young. Guys like Seahawks DE Darryl Tapp and Falcons DB Jimmy Williams were three-star guys that earned All-American honors.
But I've always thought 99.9% of NFL players have "it"...call it what you will. Many times, this is recognizable on the prep level so it's no wonder these guys are blue chip prospects and succeed on the college level. Many times these guys fail because of academic, personal or legal troubles. It's not common for a blue chipper to arrive on a campus and fade into obscurity due to a lack of talent.
Also, just because a prospect is given three stars by most recruiting services doesn't mean he has "it." Williams and Tapp are key examples. Both played in the toughest divisions in the state of Virginia and dominated their level of competition back then. It's clear that it's a very objective system, but I think there's a ton of validity in it.
The point is that I'm comfortable saying there's a much higher chance of a five-star panning out over a three-star panning out.
Therefore, I think it's really wise to see how an NFL prospect measured up coming out of high school. If his track record was good 6 years prior to draft day, I would think his chances of being a legit contributor are increased...
Comments (1)
A higher percent of 5 stars probably pan out, but far more 3 stars make it to the league because there are so many more of them. Usually there are 30-35 five star and about twice as many 4 stars, and then twice as many 3s as 4s and 5s...Tripp Carroll and Kent Hicks sure didn't help us out any and they were both highly touted.