I’ll be frank. Notre Dame is going to get killed by USC.
My freshman year roommate, Matt, emailed me yesterday to rub in how crappy I'm doing in fantasy football and to let me know I should be more positive about the Irish. Well, I can't. Sorry Addison.
I’ll prove it with some Q&A I made up:
Q: What has Notre Dame done well this year?
A: Well, they’ve won 10 games — only seven other teams have won as much. The Irish are fifth in the BCS.
Q: “Wait, wait. Adam, you’re 20 words in and you’re shooting down your own argument.”
A: Okay, well, that’s not a question, but I’m not exactly shooting down my argument. What has Notre Dame done to be in such a position? The Irish have one quality win – Georgia Tech in Week 1, and we all know how I feel about first-week games. ND’s wins over the nine other opponents have a combined record of 44-57 (.436 winning percentage). Pathetic.
Q: What about Xs and Os?
A: I thought you’d never ask…(am I talking to myself? Damnit.) Well, the simple fact is that Notre Dame hasn’t shown it can defend both the pass and run in the same game. I even say this goes for the Georgia Tech game. I think GT lost that one, ND didn’t necessarily win it. USC is going to throw all over Weis’ secondary, and when they get bored with that, the Trojans have a pair of backs with gaudy stats: Chauncey Washington (4.9 ypc, 8 TDs) and Emmanuel Moody (5.8 ypc, 2 TDs). In the three games since stumbling against the Beavers, USC’s defense has yielded 280.3 yards per game and 6.3 points per game (two of the three games were against ranked opponents).
Q: Why so high and mighty on USC? They lost to Oregon State.
A: Well, they did lose to OSU, I watched the fourth quarter of that game. That’s why I believe if USC wins out, it shouldn’t be in the national championship and Florida should (assuming Florida wins its last two games). However, I’m still big on them because they’ve played good competition: opponents records add up to 64-48 (.571). And if you take out 10-1 Arkansas (I took GT’s 9-2 away from ND, only fair), the record is still 54-47, it’s still a .535 winning percentage. Last I checked, that’s higher than .436.
Q: Do you really love stats that much?
A: Yeah.
Well, I hope my Q&A convinced you. I might do that a lot more next season, assuming I’m still employed and know how to write.
As far as other games this weekend, I’ll bang through some of the great matchups and give some predictions. I’m also bringing odds into the mix this week — it’ll be the format next year as well.
No. 18 Boston College (-4) at Miami
Thursday, 8
Miami is playing for a chance to go to a bowl game (weird saying that) while BC is playing for a shot to get to the ACC Championship game and lose to Georgia Tech (the Eagles need some help, even if they win). Miami has looked God-awful lately, but I think they’ll win this one at home on Turkey Day. Go bold or go home.
No. 9 LSU at No. 5 Arkansas (push)
Friday, 2:30
This game would rule so much more if LSU had a shot to get into the SEC championship game, but it doesn’t. However, the game will still rule. I wish I could watch this game, but my flight lands in Richmond at 2, my buddy Tim is picking me up and we're hitting the road to Blacksburg immediately, putting us in Sharkey's for Happy Hour at 5:30ish. But, his F150 has Sirius, so we'll be listening via satellite (that rules too). LSU to win.
Texas A&M at No. 11 Texas (-13)
Friday, Noon
Colt McCoy should play and Texas clinches the Big 12 South with a win. The Longhorns cover the points they’re giving, but not by much.
Virginia at No. 17 Virginia Tech (-17)
Saturday, Noon
Man, I hate UVa. I don’t know that Tech will cover without Branden Ore (high ankle sprain). Tech 20-7.
No. 4 Florida (-9) at Florida State
Saturday, Noon
Lock central. Florida by three scores.
No. 20 Wake Forest at Maryland (-1)
Saturday, 7:45
I am taking the Deacons in this one. I think Maryland has had a lot of luck this year.
As you can see, my answers are getting shorter for two reasons. One, I gotta get ready to head into the office. Two, It’s rivalry week, so I’ll probably get every pick wrong, except for the Tech pick.
No Heisman this week. But, my credential was approved for the ceremony. So if you have any sweet ideas, let me know. I’ll definitely be blogging live from Times Square on Dec. 9. Start spreading the word.
Also, watch Tech basketball on ESPN2 tomorrow night if the BC-UM game is boring. The Hokies will be Top 25 before this year is over.
Everyone travel safe, enjoy the time off from work and school and have fun watching all the great games. Happy Thanksgiving.
Comments (3)
The Irish are marching onward to victory on Saturday night when Brady will boost his Heisman stats to bring USC the loss they should have had last year with the illegal Bush Push. I hope you at least get a little bit of joy out of being completely wrong.
Thanks for reading.
I'm pretty confident in this pick ala my Ohio State (but Michigan to cover) pick and Rutgers to beat Louisville pick.
However, I could be completely wrong. If so, I'll let you laugh at me.
Happy Thanksgiving.
Speaking of basketball -- congrats on your UMd boy Ibekwe -- almost a double-double so far this year -- good call, now go stick it to Kornheiser.