Counting down to the draft
By Ken Berger
In less than 120 hours, we will know how the fearless new regime running the Jets will use the fourth pick in the NFL draft. The pressure is on Mike Tannenbaum and Eric Mangini to get this one right. And to a much lesser degree, the pressure is on me to make this blog a go-to source for you, Jets fans and Newsday readers, for all the pre-draft rumors, innuendos, and sometimes even facts that pertain to one of the most critical drafts in this franchise's history.
Why is it so important? You may not know much about Mangini and Tannenbaum -- I know and like Tannenbaum but know next to nothing about Mangini -- and that's precisely the point. You've seen enough coaches and GMs come and go in Hempstead to know that all the flowery prose written about them often means nothing a few short, painful years later when they leave or are shown the door.
I don't know what it is, but I have a feeling it's going to be different this time. I fell victim to the Herman Edwards charm machine as often as the next guy, but I never really got the feeling that everyone was on the same page when he was here. Too often there were conflicting agendas within the walls of Weeb Ewbank Hall, and in the end, the health of the only thing that ultimately mattered -- the football team they were running -- suffered.
Mangini and Tannenbaum think alike. Both are obsessively committed to succeeding. Most importantly, they want the same thing -- players who fit their philosophy. And for the first time in quite a while, the people making the decisions have the same philosophy.
Think about it: When Herm and Terry Bradway were hired in 2001, the Jets were supposed to run a Tampa-style cover 2 defense. Then came the hybrid scheme between Herm's Tampa defense and Ted Cottrell's Buffalo scheme. Then came Donnie Henderson. Offensively, it was three years of Paul Hackett, followed by one year of Hackett playing philosophical tug-of-war with Edwards, followed by one year of Mike Heimerdinger.
How can an organization develop any sort of continuity in terms of acquiring players through the draft and free agency when the coaches and systems change as often as they did under Edwards?
If the Jets' methodical approach to free agency was any indication, some of the most highly regarded draft prospects won't get an iota of consideration from this new regime, and players who wouldn't get more than a cursory glance from other teams will have their names called by the Jets on Saturday and Sunday. I'll just say this: Don't put too much weight on any one pick, including the No. 4 -- if they don't trade it. With five picks in the top 100, two third-rounders and two-fourth rounders, this draft will be about stocking the roster with so-called "Mangini guys," which essentially means "Belichick guys." Give them time. I think they're on the right track.
As you'll see later this week in Newsday when I join my colleagues, Bob Glauber and Arthur Staple, in projecting the first 10 picks in the draft -- Glauber has to mock the whole first round -- I am convinced that Mangini and Tannenbaum will NOT select a quarterback with the first pick. I haven't decided whether it's going to be D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Mario Williams, Vernon Davis, or A.J. Hawk, but I feel pretty good that it's far more likely to be one of them than a quarterback.
Which brings me to a few words I want to say about this blog. The whole point of doing this is that I want to know what you think. I want to know what rumors you're hearing and reading about as you're trying to school yourself up for what figures to be one of the most interesting first rounds in recent memory. When you think I'm wrong, I want you to tell me. When you see or hear something you want me to address, I want to know about it. This blog, and by extension what I write in the paper, is for you -- nobody else. I want to know what's on your mind.
So go ahead, jump in and get things started. Other than the playoffs, with which you're unfortunately not recently familiar, this is the most exciting week of the year for the NFL fan. Post your comments, check back for my responses, and by all means give me your feedback on what I'm writing in the paper. Yes, I'm writing it because I have to, but I'm writing it for you.
Along the way, I'll let you know when something you won't want to miss will show up in the paper the next day. If I could, I would give you the heads up on exactly what the Jets will do when they're on the clock Saturday. Then again, if I knew that, I wouldn't be blogging.
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Comments (34)
If, as you think, the Jets do not select a Quarterback with the #4 pick, I do not just want them to "sit there" and attempt to do nothing. How about trying to leverage Green Bay (who are totally locked in on Linebacker A.J. Hawk at #5?) Couldn't they try to bluff Green Bay into thinking that S.F. (with the #6 pick) is trying to move up to #4 and take Hawk? It is plausible since Hawk is a very desireable prospect. By doing this, the Jets might be able to get a relatively high pick (at least a #3 perhaps?) It would be something else to go along with D'Brickashaw Ferguson to make up for passing on Cutler (or Young/Leinart). The #3 could help them if they either decide to be bold and package several picks to trade up and get Cutler later in the draft, or more probably, the extra #3 would help them "move up" a bit from the 29th pick in the 1st round to get a running back like DeAngelo Williams or Lawrence Maroney. If they go for a running back late in the first round as opposed to getting Cutler, they could use their 2nd round pick on a QB prospect like Kellen Clemens. That way, they will have addressed needs at OT, RB, & QB -- and they will still have the last pick in the 3rd round and 2 picks in the 4th round, a 5th and a 7th to address other needs. I like the fact that Tannenbaum "held the line" in insisting on a #1 for John Abraham without caving in (like Bradway did in being outmaneuvered to ultimately accept a #4 for Herman Edwards). It was a good start for the new regime, and I wish them well. Doing a little something extra and positive at this draft would continue giving us hope that it is no longer "business as usual" with the Jets.
Thank you.
James Cola
Mr. Cola's ideas are really good - I think the Jets should consider hiring this guy.
I agree with Mr. Cola's sentiment, getting extra picks is always a good thing, but only if the Jets do not value any of the players that are on the board at number 4. The only reason you should trade down is if you don't think you are getting a player worthy of the slot you are in, if you have several players all with the same grade and feel confident any one of them can help you (which Mr. Cola seems to feel about D'Brickashaw Fersguson, A.J. Hawk and Vernon Davis), then you are justified in trading down a few spots, getting one of those players and picking up an extra pick. One other thing, the cost of the Raiders moving up from 7 to 4 is more than a 3rd round pick according to the trade value chart most GM's use. According to that chart there is a 300 point difference in the value of the picks, and the Raiders 3rd rounder (69 overall) is only worth 245 points, they would need to sweeten the pot some more to make this scenario work, say by swapping their 4th rounder (101 overall, 96 points) for the Jets 5th (37 points), this would still leave a 4 point gap, but you get the idea.
I agree mostly with Ken's assessment on both the past and present regimes. I will say that from reading the newspapers, the preparation heading to this draft is as intense as I've ever seen a team undertake. I like clearing house of Edwards/Bradway and clearly I do not believe that they will choose a Jason Ferguson like player come Saturday. I will agree that DBrick should be selected with their #4 unless Leinart falls. Then with #29, look to solidify a RB or QB. However, my memories of last year's debacle really wants the Jets to return some creditability to the franchise (alla Giants did with Eli Manning a few years ago) and get (somehow) a Bush or Leinart as there needs to be a new leader on this team.
All the talk is about the Jets not selecting a qb. But if the jets were truly interested in a qb, isn't it logical that they would send out signals that they were not indeed interested? I think the jets want Ferguson, but if he is not available, they will trade down to 6 or 7 and strongly consider Cutler. Despite the mocks that have the Bills taking a defensive tackle, I believe Cutler is thier kind of thrower, especially since Losman is such a bust.
I agree that the Jets won't select a QB with their first pick. They have too much invested in Pennington and if they want a QB, they can wait until the third round and draft Kellen Clemens. Mario Williams would be a great pick for them, if he's avaialable at 4. He would really complement that defense. Otherwise, Ferguson is a great fallback pick. Either way, the Jets are bound to get a good player at number 4. Not a bad way for the new regime to start!
I Hope we finally have established that with this regime they wont suprise us and take mercedes lewis the so called complete tight end out of ucla because the boo's will be endless. Anything they do with this number one pick is a win - win situation to be honest who can predict how ferguson,williams,culet,lienard or any of the other 10 projected early round picks will turn out to be you take the best player you think will fit ur team and the environment you are trying to set in the locker room and the work ethic u expect to see on the field. With all this being set i so far like this new regime, i like the fact that we know nothing and the rest of the league knows nothing about how the jets will handle the draft.I like that the new regime is young, yes they have to learn but why not learn in this situation, even with a top flight gm and coach would the jets be any closer to the superbowl this year, answer a big No.Who do i hope they get is mario williams and solidy an already good defense or get a need in ferguson who should be a solid - superstat tackle. Then again wasnt robert gallery a cant miss. What i think the jets will do is trade down and if all goes well get more 3rd or 4th round picks because from my mild experience with the draft and good teams the middle rounds is where the haves and the havenot's are found. PRAY for the GANG GREEN
Football is won and lost in the trenches. Although its not the sexy pick, the Jets should draft D'Brickasaw Ferguson. The guy will be a starter for 10 years and you never have to worry about a LT again. Its a no-brainer. And if the Center from Ohio State is available at #29 then I would get him too. 2 offensive lineman (2 starters) is a great way to rebuild
By the way this blog is a great idea never have i been this excited about the jets draft and i am trying to find out all the information i can even though at this point i know every team is just posturing.
Excellent perspective from Mr./Ms. "Section 108". In my opinion, though, I am hoping the Jets do not decide to drop as far as the #7 pick. Assuming that they decide not to draft a Quarterback with the #4 pick (which all of a sudden seems to be the consensus belief), and they apparantly would pounce on local product D'Brickashaw Ferguson if he is available, my hope was for them to use the fact that S.F. (at least in several articles) would clearly prefer Mario Williams or A.J. Hawk -- but may realistically have to "settle" for the highly-touted TE Vernon Davis at #6. Assuming that Mario Williams is someone's pick at #2, and since every piece of availble information seems to show the Packers are very eager to get A.J. Hawk (because they think Williams would be gone), I was hoping the Jets could bluff a proposed trade with S.F. (or imply that they might draft Hawk themselves) just to get something from Green Bay so the Packers could get the person they seem to really want -- while the Jets with the #5 pick could still get the guy they seem to really want (D'Brickashaw Ferguson). If the Jets go down to 6 or lower, I feel they will lose Ferguson and then be looking at TE Vernon Davis (or, at that point, perhaps one of the Quarterbacks who are left on the board). I know it is a longshot, but I selfishly hope that if they draft Ferguson, they can still trade some combination of a 2nd 3rd (and another draft choice or even a decent player) to somehow get Cutler if he happens to drop lower than people expect (9-12? Lower?). If we could somehow come out of the first day (3 rounds) of this draft with Ferguson, Cutler & a running back like Lawrence Maroney or even Joseph Addai or Brian Calhoun(along with whomever they pick with their final choice in the 3rd round which they are not allowed to trade)I would be thrilled and extra-impressed with the new regime.
Thank you,
James Cola
I agree that the game is won and lost in the trenches. No matter who the quarterback is, he won't stand a chance without protection. The previous regime did an AWFUL job in building backups and future starters within the OL. Having said that, I'd be happy with either Ferguson or Mario Williams, who I think would turn the defense from good into great.
Then build depth in both lines with value picks thereafter.
I'd love to see the Jets do a lot of trading down to pick up extra picks. There are bargains through all rounds of the draft, and the more picks you have, the better your chances of picking up a gem.
Based on past experiences, the Jets would be wise to steer clear of any Tight Ends. I don't care if this kid is the 2nd coming of John Mackey.
I would be happy with the DE from NC State also. He's a stud
Why are we not familiar with the playoffs? We missed 1 of the last 3 years and 2 of the last 7. Last year, with a healthy Chad people were saying this team could contend for the AFC. Football is a joke, where 1yr turnarounds are now common place. They should trade down and take a speed rushing end and draft an offensive tackle and more secondary help.
I have a strong feeling that AJ Hawk is the new NYJ regime kindof player.. I think we're not hearing much about him rumor wise, but I can see him in Green and White.
Both Mangini and Tannenbaum will need to establish themselves this year as the ‘new heads of the new jets regime’ and start the team down the path to a complete 180.
The only way to do this (both for the fans and the players), sans Bush, is to take the quarterback they like best right now, when such a possibility is within their grasp. Drafting an OT (Ferguson), DE (Williams) or OLB (Hawk) will not be enough to accomplish this as you simply can’t be a winning program without a great quarterback.
Additionally, selecting one of these lineman would be taking a gamble on obtaining the ability to draft a Quinn next year…which would require another loosing season…something neither coach nor manager can afford without due reason (Eli Manning)
Since OLB, DE and OT’s drafting value fluctuate each year with team demand, and high caliber QBs are routinely among the top picks, the jets are more likely to obtain a quality player in one of these positions next year (taking a rebuilding year this year like the Giants did) than to get a winning quarterback.
If you’re the new coach of the jets, and discover come October your quarterback can’t throw the football, but you have a great defensive end…you’re toast.
Leinart all the way!
I agree that the Jets should steer clear of selecting a QB in the first round. The OL and DL are our #1 priorities. Ferguson would be a solid pick, as would Mario Williams. What's the point of paying big money for a 1st round QB? It's doesn't make sense to spend big money on a QB when Pennington (even though he took a pay cut)still makes big money. That is just bad salary cap managment to spend that much money on one position. With a guy like Kelly Clemens available in the 3rd round and the QB from UCLA, the Jets should sit tight w/ the #4 pick and upgrade in the trenches. As for the 29th pick, I like Mangold at center or the RB from Minnesota, Maroney. QUESTIONS: If the Jets package their 29th pick and their 2nd round pick, how far up could they move in the first round? Also, has anyone heard of this WR from Hofstra who has speed, size, and hands? I don't remeber hs name but I heard the Jets showed interest in the 5th-7th rounds in him.
We all are going to be sorry down the road if they pass on Vince Young.
The only QB I'd take #4 is Leinert. Cutler is far from a sure thing as a starter in the NFL and may have similar success as Browning Nagle. Young can't be better than Vick and I doubt the Falcons will win a title under his leadership. Leinert may not have a Favre type arm but I believe it's strong enough. I hope the Jets hold little faith in Pennington's return to a high level of play. Nice guy but ...
Something about taking an OT so high makes me want to nap. If Leinert's not available, let's go with Williams or Hawk. If you can't score 30 points/game, hold the other guys to 13 pts/game.
The Jets hold the cards to picks 4-10. they have so many options at the fourth slot. I think this scenario should strongly be considered. Assume the first three are Bush, Williams and Leinert.
Trade the 4th to Oakland for the 7th and a second rounder. Oakland takes Vince Young. Green Bay takes Hawk, San Fran takes Davis.
The Jets can now take D'Brick or move back yet again.
There are so many options and the main point is that the first draft by Tan-gini is extremely crucial given their inexperience and the amount of depth in the draft.
An OL in the 1st round is a snore and top-flight QB would be a sexy pick; but sexy picks have a higher rate of being a bust. And with a low-key guy like Mangini molded in the Bill Belicheck sense, he is going to want solid productive guys who are more substance than flash ("Hollywood" Leinart). There are solid QBs in the latter rounds that would allow the Jets to fill in other holes first. A QB is only good as his OL and the Jets OL stinks. Also, the Jets need a big NT if they're going to run a more 3-4 defense. Dewayne Robertson has shown flashes of being a solid DT in the NFL, but he is too small to play in a 3-4. There should be a few solid DTs to choose from in the 2nd round. I don't know if he has any trade value, but Robertson doesn't fit into this new system.
Your assessment of Herm Edwards was right on! Remember, this was Herm's first gig as a HC in any capacity, and it showed (Time Mngmt., arguing with asst. coach Jimmy Ray, Asst. coach turnover). KC can have him! Mangini and Tannenbaum seem like smart rats, and home grown rats at that.
I don't think the Jets would have the leverage over the Packers as Mr. Cola suggests regarding A.J.Hawk
and the Niners. Everyone knows the Niners want the TE! I wouldn't move past the Raiders at 7. They are
high on these QB's and would trade down. you'd still
get Ngata who is a need too...
If you pick Leinart at #4, who will protect him?
You need a blue-chip lineman, so stay at #4, take D'Brick, or trade with the Raiders and get Justice, or Winston later on.
Picking up a new QB when your O-line is so bad is like sending a lamb to slaughter. Do you think Pennington would be in his current situation if he had a solid line in front of him? Coaching from my sofa at home, it seems like the best strategy would be to pick up D'Brickashaw Ferguson with #4 and follow it up with Mangold at #29. Pennington is getting paid the BIG $$$. I don't care if he spends another year or two picking himself up off of the turf while the chemistry is developed with the new line. A vertern QB should be able to reasonably compensate for the shortfalls of a rookie line. Same thing for RB. Cutis Martin will be able to make the best of a novice line because of his experience. For my money its lineman this year then worry about QB and RB with later picks or an early pick in 2007.
Post this on your frige and on Saturday April 29th take a look and see. The Jets will not pick a quarterback at the 4th pick unless Leinart falls to them (which it will not happen - Tennessee is a lock on him). Mangini and Tannenbaum have gone to great lenghts to secure a "core of QB's" for 2006-07
(Pennington/Ramsey) for what is worth. They will stay put at 4th and get either D'Brick or Mario Williams depending on whom does New Orleans select. If by chance, they do trade down with the Raiders. The Jets will select Young (QB) and Raiders will select A.J.Hawk. and they will trade selections with Jets getting a compensatory pick and/or player. At 29th the Jets will select a running back if they pick Mario Williams or a center for the 3/4 defense if they pick D'Brick. And those are my two cents.
Always Jets,
Max
Well first off I must say this Blog thing is pretty cool. As for my beloved Jets, I must say that the Tannenbaum, Mangini era is off to a promising start. I love the fact that they did not hire a coach to coach a position or bring in a system that is not really what the coach is familiar with, ala Ted Cottrell. I also like the way they are finally shutting off the leaks and not letting people know their business. As for the matter at hand, the draft, I believe that the Jets need to get the best available player at #4. Whether it is Ferguson, AJ Hawk, Vernon Davis, they need to get the best player. Now, I really think that the Jets should start on the offensive side of the ball, starting with O-Line first. In my perfect world I would love Ferguson at #4, and DeAngelo Williams at #29. I love Curtis and I really think he has a lot left in the tank, you can never count him out, but let’s be honest, Derrick Blaylock and Cedric Houston are not the best depth or clear cut replacements for the future Hall of Famer; with that said, Williams is the clear choice. As for the quarterback position, I really don't think the Jets should dip into that well this year. Let's remember, Drew Brees sucked before he went to San Diego and, then, quarterback Coach Brian Shottenheimer worked with him and turned him round...oh yeah that's right he's our Offensive Coordinator now! Patrick Ramsey never really had a shot in Washington and Pennington, who the heck knows. The way I see it, let Pennington and Ramsey work, try to reserect thier careers and take the beatings from our swiss cheese offensive line this year; and then wait for Brady Quinn next year! Just think how Brady like Brady Quinn will be after another year of Charlie Weiss tutelage. I say kudos to the new regime and kudos to approaching the draft in a no nonsense methodical way. Now if we can just get an owner who realizes the name of this team is the NEW YORK JETS, it will truly be a new beginning for a new regime!!!
To answer Marty Rod's question, the WR from Hofstra is Marques Colston. He is definitly worth a 5th round or 6th round pick. The kid has great speed, and solid hands. He is a little raw and needs some work but he is definitly worth a look. Also a correction for Alex Gurevich's blog, although you are right on about the preacher man, Herman Edwards, he did not have a blow out arrguement with Jimmy Raye. He arrgued with then running backs coach Bishop Harris.
Ok so the latest rumor now is jets trade their pick to the raiders. I am confused the trade up from 7 to 4 isnt worth more then just a third round pick. Second of all say the draft is going this way Texans - Bush , Saints - Mario Williams, Titans - Leinart and now the jets are like ok no Mario Williams so were gonna trade down, now do the Raiders still wana trade down or will they wait on Vince Young or Cutler. Conversely would the Jets still trade their pick if Mario Williams was there? Say the raiders do trade, we obviously bulster our draft with extra picks which is great, and if u look the packers pick which would probably be Aj Hawk and then 49ers, which have to take a prime time player and a game breaker which would be davis. So what have the jets really lost nothing because Ferguson is still there. I doubt the packers would take Ferguson and and the 49ers need some kind of superstar to help alex smith. NOW having said all this, it sounds way tooo good to be true. Ken burst this magical green bubble!
By the way Ken do u do any guest spots on any radio shows in ny, like WFAN or something?
Alot of people seem to want the Jets to draft Nick Mangold of Ohio State with the 29th pick. It doesn't seem very likley to me since the signed Trey Teague to a 4 year contract to play center. It is more likely they take a lesser known project type (needs some time to develop) center later in the draft.
I was very interested in the thought of packaging the 29th and 35th pick. If you could for example move up to twelve ahead of the Ravens, maybe you could draft Ngata there and Hawk at the 4th pick. That could jump start the defensive face lift the jets are sure to undergo under mangini. The only concern with that is ignoring the offensive line early on. I would view drafting a QB or RB as a serious mistake without first solidifying the O-line. You would be mounting a lot of pressure on the draftee without giving them a fair chance to do well.
How about trading up and getting Reggie? Why not go for it? The Texans need players more than anybody. There O line is a joke. Give them our 4 and 29 and let's take Reggie. I love Curtis but he's getting old. The kid is lightning fast. Anybody want to see both of them in a 2 back set? You know you do!
I would trade down to #7, only if the picks package is very sweet. But I do not like trading 29 and 35 for 13, I would rather get two for one there. If Cutler is there at 13, hes dropping for a reason.
I do think there has been very little chatter about Hawk on the Jets, which makes me think hes coming here, I think this guys is in the Bruschi mold for sure, I can see Hawk and Vilma anchoring this jet D, moving them in and out of 3-4 and 4-3 coverages for years to come.
I just don't see them picking an OL 1st. If Leinart is there, he might just have to be picked.
If the Jets did not decide to trade John Abraham for the 29th pick and signed him we would not be talking about Mario Williams. The top 3 QB's are out of the question, did people forget that we still owe a ton of money to Chad and we traded for a 27 year old QB in Ramsey, if we do get a QB it will be in the 2nd or 3rd rounds.. PLEASE NO TE'S With the 1st pick...A.J. Hawk would be a great pick b/c he would play outside along with Jon Vilma....TO ALL JETS FANS STOP PREDICTING WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN AND JUST ACCEPT WHAT DISASTER WILL HAPPEN....with the 1st round pick the New York Jets pick.......Lam Jones, O'Brien, Thomas, Mitchell, Brady, etc.............
The Jets will undoubtedly take a quarterback in the draft. Latest word is they are sold on Cutler, so here’s the base plan: Assuming the first 3 picks go, Bush, Williams, Leinart: with pick #4 the jets will select D'Brickashaw Ferguson unless Mario Williams falls this far, then Williams is the #4 pick over Ferguson.
If Oregon defensive tackle Haloti Ngata is off the board when the Ravens pick at 13 (he’s projected to go at #12 to the Browns) and Jay Cutler is still available, the Jets would trade their 29th and 35th picks to Baltimore and select Cutler 13th; a fair trade according to the value board. That, fellow JETS FANS is a outstanding draft day!
Adversely, if the Titans pick Young, and Leinart is still on the board at #4, the Jets will take Leinart here.
If Ngata is still around at 13, look for the Jets to take Alabama's Brodie Croyle or Oregon's Kellen Clemens in the later rounds.
Jets should grab TE Vernon Davis or DE Mario Williams in the 4th automatically adding depth. In the 29th you take Broderick Bunkley, Nick Mangold or RB DeAngelo Davis or Maroney. Either of those combinations upgrades the offense.
2nd round you address WR with Stovall from ND or RB with Joseph Addai from LSU O Line with Jeremy Trueblood. With two on the Third round you address One QB with Kellen Clemens from Oregon or Ingle Martin from Furman this kid can play and has a good arm. The second 3rd rounder take OL Colon from Hofstra, or TE Scheffler from Western Michigan. After that its a crap shoot.