Fantasy roundtable (Fantasy Sports)

BY ADAM RONIS

Finally, it is my turn to host the roundtable. This week's question is: What should the Braves do with John Smoltz?

Adam, Newsday:

Fantasy owners drafted Smoltz with the idea of him anchoring their pitching staff. If you have surprises like Cliff Lee, Shaun Marcum and Micah Owings, then you might not be upset to see Smoltz shift to closer. If you don't need a closer, then trade him. Smoltz can still be a dominating starter, but can he go more than five innings? I don't see it right now.
It was clear he was pitching through pain and still put up great numbers. The Braves need him as a starter and a closer, but right now, the bullpen is the best thing for him. You could throw him two innings to close out a game. He'll be able to really turn it up knowing he's out there for an inning or two. The way baseball is now, the bullpen is extremely important. Now, Smoltz could impact a game three or four times a week. This way he could possibly get stronger and then go back to the rotation for the stretch run.
It also allows Rafael Soriano to get more comfortable with less pressure coming back from an injury and gives the Braves time to shop for a closer. I still think Smoltz can be a top-notch starter. That's not the argument. I just don't think his shoulder will allow him to do it right now and if Smoltz is actually saying that, you have to put him in the bullpen.

Brett, Greener on the Other Side:

The Braves should bring back the old school closer. John Smoltz still has a top 5 K rate at age 41. He's still got gas left in the tank.

They should make him a two-inning closer. If the game is within 3 runs after 7, bring him on and let him pitch the next two innings. Simply make a double switch by swapping out Diaz for Kotsay or vice versa so Smoltz doesn't have to bat.

There is no point in limiting him to only one inning. If 6-8 innings was a stress, a reduction to 2 shouldn't be much of an issue.

Ya heard it first here.

Double Down/Fantasy Baseball Geeks

The answer to this is very straightforward. The Braves will consult with the doctors, trainers, and Smoltz himself to determine whether pitching out of the bullpen or as a starter will give him the greatest chance to stay healthy and produce for the team. They want Smoltz on the field contributing and could really care less if you as a fantasy owner had penciled him in for 200 innings and 200 strikeouts.
Fantasy owners have many things to consider here. All reports indicate the he will come back as the closer, so if you are already set with saves then it might be time to take a gamble and try to deal one of your existing Fireman. If you own a player like Brandon Lyon this would be a great time to "sell high" as his current stats (10 saves, 2.25 ERA, and a 1.00 WHIP) are really not indicative of his mediocre talent level. Try to use the sell high closer to acquire a slumping starter from another team. A couple of players that are not playing up to their potential that could be "buy low" candidates to replace Smoltz would be Matt Cain and Brett Myers. Hey roll the dice and get Rich Harden he has the most potential reward despite the greatest risk. If you lose Smoltz as a starter it is time to start taking some chances.

Tim Dierkes, RotoAuthority.com
I think the Braves have the right idea with Smoltz. Their medical staff would know his arm best, and only Smoltz and the Braves' doctor really have the information to make that call.

The move doesn't have heavy fantasy baseball implications, in my mind. If you own Smoltz, you are going to keep him to see if he becomes a lights-out closer. The move may create a trading opportunity if Smoltz's owner already had three closers.

Rudy Gamble, razzball.com
I think Smoltz is the most valuable Brave arm in 2008. He's their best starter or reliever. If he doesn't feel healthy enough to start, make him the closer (unlike with the Phillies where there was no health reason to displace Brett Myers from the rotation) It's not like your displacing Hoffman or Rivera from the closer position - it's Rafael Soriano. The bullpen will just be that much deeper - which they'll probably need as their starting corps will be that much shallower.

You could make the argument that Smoltz has 'earned' the right to choose but screw that. This is simply a baseball decision. If it was Glavine who wanted to be the closer, I bet Bobby Cox would heartily laugh like he used to after giving Leo Mazzone the dutch oven treatment on road trips while Leo catatonicly rocked back and forth to sleep.

Stephen Webb, RotoJunkie.com
The Braves should utilize Smoltz however Smoltz feels that he can help the team. He’s a veteran and likely a Hall of Fame pitcher who is as much a “gamer” as anyone who takes the field. Smoltz knows his body and has earned the right to be given the benefit of the doubt and trusted when he says that relief work is the best thing for him right now. Regardless of his role, he will immediately be one of the best in baseball in that given position. If his arm can hold up to pitching on back to back games and John can be effective out of the bullpen in the closer’s role, then Smoltz will be helping to anchor the back end of what has been a shaky and injury riddled relief corp.

If he can build his shoulder strength back up and start in the post season (should the Braves get there), I think that would be in the best interest of the team overall since Smoltz is one of the best post season pitchers in major league history. My personal preference is that he limit his innings via the bullpen and reduce the strain on his shoulder and then return to the top of the rotation down the stretch/in the playoffs.

Michael Muschiano, Poughkeepsie Journal
Bullpen- period; for three reasons. First of all, his shoulder has been bothering him all year. He started on the disabled list, and it didn’t take a month before he found himself back on the disabled list with more discomfort in his shoulder. Some players have the ability to play through pain, and I’m sure Smoltz was for the first month of the season. However, going past the fifth or sixth inning became a difficult task. And that brings me to the second reason. Nobody knows Smoltzy better than Smoltz. Quoting Smoltz at the end of last month, “I hear people say that we can't win without me as a starter, but we're not going to win with me as a five-inning starter either.” And you won’t win your fantasy championship with that way either. Out of the bullpen, his value is not depreciated, like some may believe. In reality, he might actually be more valuable to your fantasy team as a reliever. Finding a quality starter is much easier than a quality reliever.
Several young pitchers emerge throughout the course of the season as potential hole-fillers in your rotation. Rarely, is that the case with a closer. With Smoltz, you know what you’re getting. And that is the third reason. Smoltz is a proven closer. During his four seasons as the Braves closer, Smoltz converted 154 saves in 168 chances. That’s good for a .917 save percentage and during that tenure, he posted a 2.65 ERA. Durability has definitely become a challenge with Smoltz, but versatility will never be a question.

Derek Carty, Hardball Times
In my opinion, the Braves should absolutely put Smoltz back into the rotation. The guy hasn't had a FIP above 3.44 since 1994. Granted, four of those years were in the bullpen and he'll be 41 on May 15, but his skills are still in tact. Last year, his K/9 was 8.62, his BB/9 was 2.06, and his GB% was above-average at 45%. In limited innings this year, he was striking out 12 batters per nine with a 52% GB%. Obviously these would regress, but it's not as if he was doing poorly this year. He's still got it.

Those kind of skills qualify Smoltz as one of the top, probably 10 or 15, starters in baseball. It makes zero sense to use a guy like this in the bullpen where he'll throw 50 or 60 innings as opposed to 150, given the information I have. I say 'given the information I have' because I have no idea what Smoltz's injury really looks like or if there's something in his mechanics that, at his advanced age, would make him prone to another injury if he were to resume starting on a regular basis. Just given the numbers, Smoltz deserves to be a starter. No questions asked.

Some will argue with this logic, saying that Smoltz would put up a lower ERA as a reliever, which compensates for the fewer innings he'll throw. While it is almost certainly true that he'd put up a lower ERA in the bullpen (assuming neutral luck in both instances), this would not provide more value than a higher ERA in more innings would. Look at the Pitching Runs Created leaderboard from last year: http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=pitching&linesToDisplay=50&orderBy=prc&direction=DESC&qual_filter=1&season_filter%5B%5D=2007&league_filter%5B%5D=All&Submit=Submit).

We see that the first reliever to appear on the list is Rafael Betancourt, coming in with 85 PRC. The best pitcher, Jake Peavy, came in 58 higher at 143 PRC. We pass 38 starters before we get to the absolute best reliever (Betancourt). Even if Smoltz matches the production of the best reliever in baseball last year (in terms of PRC, of course), he still wouldn't be as valuable to the Braves as he would be if he started (assuming you agree with my assertion that he is a top 15 pitcher, at worst. Even if he were only a top 35 starter, though, he'd still be better than he would be as a reliever, and at that, he'd still have to be the best reliever in the game). As an aside, we see similar (though not quite as severe) results even if we look at something like Pitching Win Shares.

Plainly put, the Braves should put John Smoltz back into the rotation.

Patrick DiCaprio, fantasybaseballgenerals.com

Looking at the Braves roster it seems like they have a solid bullpen with a few closer-worthy candidates. I think that any of their top three guys, Soriano (when he returns), Boyer and Campillo can do a creditable job. All are at least marginally qualified to be a closer based on the BaseballHQ metric of Base Performance Value, all are above the 90 threshold. Campillo has been a surprise this year, showing good dominance and control. Boyer has been the best guy in the pen, though on the surface it may not show yet.

In the rotation, they clearly need Smoltz. Forgetting for a second just how good Smoltz has been, and just looking at what they have now, a guy who would even be league average would be a shot in the arm in the long run. Glavine is running on fumes with a 5.63 xERA and more walks than Ks. After Hudson and Jurrjens they essentially are praying for rain (Hey you think of a rhyme for Jurrjens!) and the back end of the rotation has been riddled with injuires.

Oh, and lastly, that Smoltz guy is a pretty good starter, even if he can only go five innings. This is a great opportunity for creative managing, like perhaps handcuffing a reliever to Smoltz when he starts. Getting those quality innings will make a far bigger difference.

Pete Abbate, RotoNomics

I think Smoltz was right when he said it a few weeks ago: he belongs back in the bullpen. Right now, he’s on record as saying he won’t be able to fight through pain for more than five or six innings. Even if he’s lights-out (which he won’t be every start), the Braves will still have 3 or 4 innings every fifth day that need to be effective relief pitching if they expect to gain victories from his starts. Mike Gonzalez, coming off Tommy John surgery, certainly isn’t going to be the force that stabilizes that bullpen, and I don’t see Rafael Soriano pitching well in the near future. It’s unfortunate for Atlanta, but Smoltz will be much more valuable in the bullpen, where he can make every game an 8-inning affair, than he would be in the rotation, where he would put a strain on the bullpen every fifth day.

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Adam Ronis is allergic to losing and will help you win your fantasy sports league.

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