Fantasy Baseball

BY ADAM RONIS

I was ready to put Albert Pujols number two in my rankings. I haven’t seen him go higher than fourth in early mock drafts and was appalled. Lately, I have seen him go as late as 14th. One down year, for Pujols at least, and you abandon him? Well, news just came out that has me worried.

Pujols has had a sore right elbow for a few years and he elected not to have offseason surgery because it would cause him to miss some of the upcoming season. Pujols is unable to straighten his right arm, but since he plays first base, doctors said surgery isn’t necessary.
Last season, Pujols hit .327, scored 99 runs, hit 32 home runs and had 103 RBIs and his BB/K ratio of 99/58 is as good as it gets.

That’s not first-round productivity, but just two years ago he hit .331 with 49 homers and 137 RBIs. The numbers for his first six seasons are insane. Before last season, he had four consecutive seasons of at least 41 home runs, 117 RBIs, 114 runs and a .330 average. Pujols is just 28 and should be entering his prime. Pujols, when healthy, should be in the top 10 in average, runs, home runs and RBIs, yet Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez often are being drafted before him. Reyes might be top 10 in two categories and Ramirez in possibly three. Steals are important, but I’d take Pujols over both.

However, the news of his elbow problem is a concern. I’d follow this very closely as spring training begins. One must all take into account is the Cardinals could be a bad team. What if he plays though the injury and the Cardinals are out of it and he elects to have surgery? This will have a huge impact on the draft. If he’s fine, pencil him in at No. 2 right after Alex Rodriguez. But right now, it's real tough to gauge since we don't have an idea of how serious this injury is. If I'm drafting now, I'd wait until late in the first round. Actually, I'd pass and pick a safer option.

BY ADAM RONIS

Draft Strategy: Load up on offense

There are plenty of strategies that work in formulating a winning fantasy baseball team. I’ll share with you the one I have used for years that has resulted in a bevy of championships. Here’s a draft from one of the leagues I played in last season. It was a 12-team, 5 x 5 roto (on-base percentage was used instead of average), mixed league, and was 28 rounds. We started 22 players and had six on the bench. This was the third year I was in the league and won all three years. I won by 12 points last season.

5. Jose Reyes
20. Matt Holliday
29. Aramis Ramirez
44. Garrett Atkins
53. Paul Konerko
68. Johnny Damon
77. Prince Fielder
92. John Lackey
101. Michael Cuddyer
116. Dan Haren
125. Francisco Cordero
140. Frank Thomas
149. Rich Hill
164. Dave Bush
173. Scott Olsen
188. Joe Borowski
197. Jose Valverde
212. Orlando Cabrera
221. Chris B. Young
236. Ian Snell
245. Ty Wigginton
260. Dan Wheeler
269. Scott Linebrink
284. Jake Westbrook
293. Fernando Rodney
308. Dan Johnson
317. Juan Rincon
332. David Ross

Look at the first few rounds. I didn’t take a starting pitcher until the 8th round. I always load up on offense early. It’s important to have power. When someone hits a home run, you get a point in three categories and it helps average. Chris Carpenter was taken with the 30th pick and he got hurt. Of course, offensive players can get hurt too, but pitchers are more risky. Of my first seven offensive picks, the one that didn’t work out was Damon. I took him for speed, runs and average and expected 20 home runs playing in a prolific offense. He still hit .270, scored 93 runs, hit 12 home runs, had 63 RBIs and stole 27 bases and I eventually traded him.

You can find good pitching later in the draft. My pitching was anchored by John Lackey and Dan Haren. Not bad for 8th and 10th round picks. I also wait on closers. I got Francisco Cordero in the 11th round and he eventually was a centerpiece that landed me Carlos Beltran. Especially in a league that has bench spots, I’ll load up on closers and setup men that have the potential to get a starting job at some point late in the draft. If you stock your offense early, you don’t need to worry about it later. You can focus on filling your pitching.
Many closers lose jobs and you can get a solid one via free agency. None of the setup men I drafted wound up getting a closer job, but they usually help your ERA and WHIP.

I also don’t take a catcher early. We only started one catcher in this league, but even in a two-catcher league, I wait. It’s not worth the early pick when you can get a player who will perform better. Joe Mauer was taken ahead of my pick of Holliday in the second round. See my point? David Ross didn’t finish the season on my team. I rotated the position and found a hot free agent.

The key to winning a championship is how you pick in the middle to later rounds, free agent pickups, and trades. My pitching might not look good from this draft, but since I had such a huge lead in saves, I traded closers and added Ted Lilly, Adam Wainwright and Tim Wakefield. Of the guys I drafted, I traded nine. The draft is just the beginning. You need to always look to improve the team.

Still not sold on drafting offense and waiting on pitching? I had 52 points in offense and 53.5 points in pitching. Of course, if you’re in my league, take Johan Santana in the first round.

BY ADAM RONIS

Welcome to the debut of the fantasy baseball blog. I am a fantasy baseball nut, winning numerous leagues over the past few seasons. I play in auction leagues, head-to-head and roto. I am also planning on participating in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Super League with an entry fee of $2,500, 15 teams and 30 rounds, so yes I am a very serious player.

I'll be here to analyze the latest news in fantasy baseball, recommend waiver wire pickups and provide advice, as long as you don't participate in my league. Feel free to ask questions and give me some props when I help you win your league.