We’re more than halfway through the baseball schedule, the perfect time for everyone to officially stop wondering if the Rays are for real.
At 51-32, they’re the only team with a winning percentage (.614) over .600.)
Let’s say it all together.
The – Rays – are – for – real.
Very much for real, and if you don’t believe me, don’t worry. I’ve spent the morning researching the top 10 reasons the Rays will still be around in September.
1. Run differential
This is one of the best statistics to determine whether a team is a faker, or if they are for real.
For example, the Mariners last year finished a surprising 88-74, and with the addition of Erik Bedard they were viewed as bigtime contenders this year. But a closer look at their ’07 season shows they actually were outscored 813 to 794, which is almost unheard of for a team with 88 wins. So we should have known.
The Devil Rays, en route to the best record in baseball thus far this season, have outscored their opponents by 58 runs, 390 to 332. That’s not the best run differential in the American League – the Rays trail the A’s (62), White Sox (88) and the Red Sox (70) – but it shows the Rays are by no means a fluke.
2. All in spite of Carlos Pena
Carlos Pena finally fulfilled the scouts’ predictions with a monster offensive year in ’07, hitting 46 home runs with a .282 average, .411 on-base percentage and .627 slugging percentage.
But this season Pena has taken several big steps backwards. He’s hitting .226 with nine doubles, 11 home runs, a .333 on-base percentage and a .420 slugging percentage. That the Devil Rays are producing runs without any consistency from their big bat makes their first half even more impressive.
3. Effective bullpen
It used to be that whenever teams played Tampa Bay, opponents always had the utmost confidence they were going to win because eventually the Rays would HAVE to go to the bullpen, which has always stunk.
Finally, that’s not the case this year.
Led by injured closer Troy Percival and setup man Dan Wheeler (whom the Rays stole from Houston last year for Ty Wigginton), Tampa’s bullpen has compiled a .318 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. Both of those numbers are third best in the American League.
But perhaps most impressive of all is that opponents are hitting just .212 off Tampa, which easily the best in the league. Next best is the White Sox bullpen, which is holding opponents to a .229 average.
Keeping Percvial healthy, obviously, will be key to their second half.
4. Dioner Navarro is a good catcher
I admit, I was wrong about Navarro. I never thought he would pan out, but he’s performing as well as any other catcher in the American League.
Not only is he hitting (316/.368/.439), he’s been surprisingly strong throwing out would-be base-stealers. He’s caught 15 of 40 trying to steal, a 37.5 percent clip that ranks just above Detroit’s Ivan Rodriguez for best in the American League.
So why did I think Navarro wouldn’t pan out? In part it was because of a conversation I had with Stump Merrill in 2004. I was working on a story about Navarro, and Merrill, his manager at Double-A Trenton, basically made it quite clear that the kid had a huge head and wasn’t serious about getting better.
Guess that’s changed.
5. Defense, defense, defense
The Rays seemingly run down every ball hit into the outfield, and they rarely make a mistake on a play. That doesn’t sound like them, right? Over the last four seasons the Rays have totaled 476 errors, easily the most in the American League. But this season they only have committed 45 errors through 83 games.
6. Not afraid to run
The Rays lead the American League with 90 stolen bases (in 122 tries). Now by no means are stolen bases any bit an indicator of how good a team is. But it’s a big part of the Rays’ offensive attack, and they made it clear in the first half of the season they are not scared about doing what they can to produce a run.
7. Evan Longoria is the real deal.
We’re not breaking any new ground saying this, but this guy is going to be real, real good. He already has the look of a leader, and he’s only 22 years old. Missed the first month of the season, yet he has compiled 36 extra-base hits (20 doubles, 1 triple and 15 home runs) in 265 at-bats. Hands-down, he’s this year’s rookie of the year.
8. Can’t double ’em up
Another important facet of speed – getting them to ground into double plays becomes that much harder. The Rays have only grounded into 59 double plays, second fewest in the American League.
9. Homerless pitching
The Rays have a solid, if not great, top three to their rotation in James Shields, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza. But the whole pitching staff has performed well, considering that as a group they’ve surrendered just 70 home runs, which is tied for second lowest in the American League.
10. This franchise is due - ’nuff said.