Plenty of reasons not to offer arbitration
By Joe Pawlikowski
During the latter portion of yesterday afternoon, I found myself engaged in the comments on my own blog regarding the Yanks decision to not offer arbitration to Bobby Abreu, Andy Pettitte, or Ivan Rodriguez. The immediate, and predictable, reaction from the fans was that this move made little sense. Why forego the draft picks that we surely would have received when Abreu signs elsewhere? Why let Andy go for free? Why not try to get at least a little return from the Pudge deal?
On one level, these questions make sense. There had been an assumption around the Yankees fan base, and even in the media, that the Yankees would offer Bobby Abreu arbitration, thus securing a guaranteed first-round pick and a supplemental round pick. What this also assumed, though, was that Abreu would decline arbitration. Over the past few weeks, though, what was once a sure thing (Bobby receiving a multi-year offer elsewhere) has become less so.
Blame it on the economy. Blame it on teams not wanting a player in his decline who played arguably the worst right field in baseball. Any way you slice it, it's clear that there is little interest in Bobby Abreu. Four other corner outfielders on the market seem far more attractive
to teams in need: Manny Ramirez, Raul Ibanez, Pat Burrell, and Adam Dunn.
In other words, think of how many rumors you've heard this winter surrounding Abreu. The Cubs and Mets were said to be interested early, but that cooled off quickly. Both teams, it seems, prefer Ibanez, whose name has come up frequently in the Hot Stove rumors. Dunn, Abreu, and Burrell? Not so much.
Bearing this in mind, the primary reason for the team declining to offer Abreu arbitration is clear: They were afraid he'd accept. Brian Cashman explained this by saying the team wanted to control costs and be certain of their payroll and roster heading into 2009. If Abreu accepted arbitration, he'd be considered a signed player, meaning the Yankees would have to clear a 40-man roster spot for him. Further, they wouldn't know much about his 2009 salary, except that it would be at least $16 million.
Something tells me that this is $16 million they'd prefer to spend elsewhere. This isn't fact of course; I'm simply reading between the lines. By offering arbitration to Abreu, and to Pettitte for that matter, the Yankees would essentially be committing at least $32 million to two players in 2009. With so much money already tied up in their regulars -- A-Rod, Jeter, Posada, Rivera, Matsui, and Damon already add up to $106 million against the 2009 payroll -- they don't want to add another two players at $32 million. That could hamper the rest of their off-season plans, which revolve around CC Sabathia and what will probably amount to near $24 million per year if he's signed.
The $16 million figure certainly plays into the Pettitte situation. Many fans assume the team offered the lefty $12 million for 2009, but Joel Sherman claims that it was only $10 million. This makes sense; it's actually similar to the paycut Mike Mussina took after the 2006 season ($17 million to $11 million). Although he was guaranteed two years, it doesn't appear Pettitte, or the Yankees for that matter, are interested in such an arrangement. The Yanks want him for $10 million, and didn't want to end up going to arbitration with him over the extra $6 million. There is little doubt Andy would have accepted an offer.
Yes, the Yankees potentially lost out on a few draft picks. However, they might not have had those picks even if they had offered arbitration. If both Andy and Abreu accepted -- once again, both strong possibilities -- they would have lost payroll flexibility and still have missed out on the draft picks. It came down to risk vs. reward, and the potential reward, the draft picks, weren't worth the burden the team would face if both accepted.
With both players for the time being cleared from the forecasted payroll, the Yanks have more flexibility to deal with their top free agent targets. That $32 million will cover all of CC Sabathia's 2009 salary and then some. They could go for Teixeira, though unlikely if CC lands in pinstripes, or even Adam Dunn, who was not offered arbitration by the Diamondbacks and thus would not cost the Yankees draft picks.
It's all about the big picture. We might argue about it now, but that's because we haven't had anything to argue about in a week. As the off-season unfolds, I'm confident that this decision will reveal itself as the right one.
Joe Pawlikowski writes for River Ave. Blues and can be reached here.
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Comments (38)
Kat,
It can't be. Chip said Abreu wouldn't accept a one year deal when there were so many teams interested in signing him. Are you going to believe Chip or your own ears?
Once again Bomber you said there was other (possible motives ) in keeping the extra money , But no the experts thought different they thought in no way would these players decide on taking the one year contract no n o impossible.
Guess what it was possible DUE to the declining market and as of right now BC looks like a genius. I am begining to think we should have no boo hoo'd and demanded they signed Posada and we could have had him for less or recieved some draft picks.
Brian right now looks real smart. (that is of course For RIGHT NOW)
Words to the wise
NOTHING BEATS A GUARRANTEED CONTRACT one year or whatever. Bobby would have accepted saw that the market was low on him and accepted the one year deal for at LEAST 16 mil which would have been a robbery.
As I indicated yesterday, I thought Cashman made the right moves in not offering arbitration.
There is something that maybe someone can explain to me. From what I hear the Yankees maybe more interested in Lowe at 35 than Brunett at 32 and willing to give Lowe 5 years who'll be 40 at the end of the contract. Is this correct??????????????
Larry,
I don't know if that is true, but from what I read, Lowe is supposedly in great shape for a 35 year old, he is a workhorse and doesn't get hurt- unlike Burnett.
The thing is if both pitchers are healthy and you are going into a short playoff series- would you want Burnett or Lowe on the mound? I would have to go for Burnett.
Question: Joe writes that if the Yanks had offered and Bobby accepted arbitration, his 2009 salary would be at least $16M. Is this necessarily the case?
Sure, he had a good year, but is there some rule that prevents him from being awarded a lower salary? Considering his age and the economic climate, I would the think the system would provide for the probability that his output will decrease--especially since equivalent players around the league are not going to be getting $16m/year contracts this off-season.
But I haven't paid enough attention to the arbitration thing in recent years to know.
In fact, I can't even remember if there's precedence of players going to arbitration and being awarded lower salaries than the prior year. If not, that's a flaw in the system that need to be fixed, pronto. We've all become too painfully aware in recent months that property doesn't just continually skyrocket in value. Pretty soon, the value of teams is going to plummet, if it hasn't begun to already. Why should arbitration-eligible players be exempt from market trends? Is someone else going to give him $16M. No. So the Yanks have to lose a pick because the system assumes he deserves no less than he earned last year? Hey, we're all earning less than last year. Just ask Mr. Ford.
Clearly, I'm no economist or lawyer, but I'm just curious about how this works.
Bomber,
You do know that the author of this thread is no more a baseball insider than the rest of us.
I like RAB myself, but they are ordinary Yankee fans - not reporters or anyone with club access.
If Abreu signs multi-year deal somewhere, the decision not to offer him arbitration may prove to be a major blunder on Cashman's part.
Then again, Cashman just made Abreu more attractive to potential suitors because now they don't have to forfeit a draft pick to sign him.
So save your "Cashman is a genius" proclamation until Abreu signs a contract.
If the economic situation is so devastating to MLB - why were the Yanks one of the only teams in MLB not to offer arbitration to any of it's players?
If the economic situation was that dire, they would not have offered $140M to Sabathia without batting an eye and seem determined to go higher if need be.
Like many global warming zealots, there are people who are going to blame the economy for every decision these teams make no matter what.
Never mind that Cashman has said for three years that he wants to lower the payroll and I said a thousand times during the season that they were not going to spend like gangbusters this winter as many Yankee fans expected.
Anyone who bothered to pay attention knew this was coming long before any economic downturn.
In case anyone is interested, the Angels' GM says there is nothing to the so-called rumors that the Angels were shifting focus from Teixeria to Sabathia and says that Teixeira remains their top priority.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081202&content_id=3699672&vkey=hotstove2008&fext=.jsp
Like I said last week, why would the Angels shift to Plan B if nobody has signed yet?
Not to mention the Angels don't need Sabathia with the rotation they've got and have said all along that Teixeira is their #1 target.
Wow. Sometimes, there's some truly mind-numbing circularity on these threads.
I'm sure I've contributed my share, but still. . .
http://blogs.trb.com/sports/baseball/blog/2008/12/the_inevitable_sort_of_sad_mar.html
I've never felt so disrespected by a player dude. We offer to make him the highest paid pitcher ever and he's acted like we're begging him to play for the Nippon Ham fighters.
I hope the Jim A. philosophy regarding Jake P doesn't apply to Carsten Charles S. Nomsayin...?
PS. If for some reason he's less than stellar in NYC I could see a potential disaster via A-Rod style booing...Can you imagine any other player particularly one who was and continues to be reluctant to play here receiving the A-Rod treatment when he only goes 2 and a 1/3 and Phil Hughes has to come in to save the game and his fat a$$?
LOL
;-)
No I guess I'm never happy...
Im with Viper, its too soon to call this a win by Cashman until we see where Bobby signs and for how much. If a team gives him 3/30 to 3/36, then it was a bad move. If he signs for between 1 year to 2/20, then it was a good move...how good of a move is still debatable.
I understand not offering it up to Pudge and Andy, those were no brainers, I just dont agree with not offering it to Bobby. Even if he did agree to a 1 year deal, would it have been the worst thing in the world? He would have been our #3 hitter ( which we still need as of today ). Then Bobby, Nady, Damon, Gardner/Melk would have been our 4 man rotation in the OF, while also sharing time with Matsui at DH. Its not like Matsui and Damon are locks to play 162 games anyway. If Garnder won the CF job outright, there is still an opportunity to trade away four contract year players in Damon, Nady, Bobby and Matsui for some low level SP prospects. That would have cleared money and the players would have made up for the draft picks we lost. That is a best case scenario though with Gardner stepping up and getting someone to trade for 4 aging stars. So lets talk worst case scenario...if Gardner and/or Melk couldnt get the job done, or we couldnt trade one of the fearsome foursome...then you stick Damon back in CF ( Im sure he'll be motivated in his contract year ), Nady in LF and Bobby in RF with Matsui as the DH. When Damon gets hurt or needs time off, bring up Gardner, Melk or Christian to play CF. Not a bad hitting lineup.
Damon - CF
Jeter - SS
Abreu - RF
Arod - 3B
Matsui - DH
Nady - RF
Swisher - 1B
Posada - C
Cano - 2B
As far as risk and reward, in my opinion, even in the worst case scenario, its not that risky. I dont think the 16-18M we would have spent on Bobby would have affected our ability to sign CC or anyone else. Then in another year we shed more bloated contracts...Damon, Nady, Matsui and Bobby. Thats another 40M-50M off the books. The reward of two top 40 draft picks far outweighs the risk of Bobby saying yes for one more year....in my humble opinion.
I guess we'll see in the next couple months if it was a good move or not. Maybe Cashman goes after CC and Teix or Manny or Burrell or Dunn which confirms that we were saving our money for something else.
Oh well, couple more days until the Winter Meetings!!!
FYI - Braves traded for Javy Vasquez. That takes another Peavy suitor out of the mix. Does it mean anything to the Yanks? It sure cant hurt.
I think we will see deals go down at the winter meetings that will spin our heads and we'll say 'wow' , never saw that as a possibility. Maybe Cashman will make a deal with the Marlins, get their SS, moves Jeter to CF. I figure Cano or Melky will have to go, both got too comfortable last year. Which one? If we sign 2 type A free agents Yanks lose valuable picks. The team can be upgraded via trades, but we don't know who's willing to deal yet. Should be fun.
Dru -
I agree with you and Viper - If Bobby gets a good contract than this was a blunder by Cashman.
Nudge -
First of all Kat didn't post this string
Second - I never said Abreu wouldn't accept a 1 year deal. I said it doesn't make sense to me that he would. Obviously I don't know what Abreu's thinking on the situation is. But you tell me which makes more sense to you (assuming there is a 2 year deal out there for Abreu at 10-12 mil per)
Take a 2 year 20 mil deal or take a 1 year 16 mil deal and hope that there's a better market for you at 36 than there is at 35?
I agree with Joe (who actually wrote the blog) when he says that Abreu, like Dunn and Burrell, haven't been linked to any teams and that may be a sign of how bad the market is but frankly I still think that in the end he gets a nice 2 or 3 year deal from someone.
As for my math - I'm well aware that other teams have escalating contracts to deal with. My point is that your math is still flawed. You don't take into account where contracts players signed by other teams ended relative to the ones signed by Yankee players (for example Andruw Jones's contract with the Braves ended while Giambi's was still escalating.) It seems to me also that if you take out the escalations Cashman has done a very good job of plugging contracts into contracts - by that I mean he brings in Bobby Abreu at 16 mil but subtracts the 16 mil owed Gary Sheffield. Brings in Johnson at 14 mil which slots into the money they were paying Roger, Farnsworth in, Karsay out...
If your point is that Cashman made mistakes and that the Yankees haven't gotten any championships despite having the highest payroll in baseball - well then congrats I guess for pointing out in the smuggest way possible what all of us here already know.
Chip,
Smug is Nudge's default setting.
He feels entitled to use it here because he doesn't disclose his own fan allegiance. That way he gets to take the 'superior' stance without any comeback.
His team is one with a worse record, worse front office, and worse future ahead than the Yankees. The only way he can experience the 'superior' stance in the baseball realm is to come to a blog dedicated to discussing the best baseball organization in the history of the game and snipe from a concealed position.
Why would the Yanks offer arbitration to Pettitte and/or Abreu?
I agree with Joe in that they both would probably accept and then the minimum that the Yanks would have to pay them is 16 mil apiece.
I also wouldn't want Abreu patrolling RF anymore for the Yanks. I've had enough of his "fear of walls" thing to last me a lifetime!
There's a report out of Atlanta (no idea how accurate it is) that in addition to adding Javy Vazquez the Braves are going to cave and offer AJ Burnett 5 years. The prevailing thought has been that the first team willing to give him 5 years would win the bidding.
Since everyone has been Debbie Downer around here lately, and the mood has been very testy - I'm going to suggest trades. I don't particularly care if you think I'm out of my mind. These are for fun. If you like them, great. If not, great.
St. Louis gets: Johnny Damon, Robinson Cano, Mark Melancon, and Zach McAllister.
Yankees get: Adam Wainwright and Rick Ankiel
St. Louis needs three things: A second baseman, a leadoff hitter, and a bullpen - the Yankees would be providing them will all of the above. Of course St. Louis would be giving up a very good young pitcher and a guy who played extremely well for them in CF last year, but as they say - you don't get nothing for nothing. Melancon could be the heir apparent for Mariano, but that's an issue for another day.
KC Royals get: Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera and a low level prospect
NYY get: Gil Meche, Billy Butler and Jose Guillen
Guillen's a headcase - we know this. He's a lunatic who drives managers crazy and would probably clash with Girardi about 30 seconds after arriving in New York. But taking back his salary might help the Yankees get more for less. Say what you want about Meche, but he's been very effective over his last two years in KC and would be a better investment for the middle of the Yankee rotation than Ben Sheets or Ollie Perez or Derek Lowe or even Andrew Eugene...
Sign Felipe Lopez to give the Yankees some solid glove work at 2nd base.
So do those moves and what are the Yankees left with?
Jeter - SS
Swisher - 1b
Ankiel - CF
Alex - 3b
Matsui - DH
Nady - LF
Guillen - RF
Posada - C
Lopez - 2b
Rotation:
Wang
Wainwright
Joba
Meche
Hughes/Aceves
Chip, I think those trades make some sense
The St Louis one would be more likely
Guillen in New York would make Plaxico look like an episode of Seventh Heaven
(I can't remember the last time I was able to post on the first attempt! This is getting stupid)
As a Yankee fan i'am glad the Yankees didn't offer arbitration to
Pettitte and/or Abreu.Pettitte should not received no more than
10 mil.If he doesn't want to agree with the Yankees offer then say
the Yankees are going to look at other options.As for Abreu yes
its a big gamble not to offer arbitration but i would rather spent that
money on a younger player with more upside.
Did Tom really just casually suggest the Yankees are going to acquire Hanley Ramirez?
THERE IS ANOTHER SULLY!!!!
But can this board survive two of us?
Chip,
I'll tell you one thing:
you just made Ant a very happy guy! (Ankiel)
The Winter Meetings in general are going to end up being much ado about nothing. Homer Gammons will be all over ESPN with his wild rumored trades, but in the end there will be 1 team actually getting something done worth remembering. That team is the W\Sox. Kenny Williams isn't shedding contracts for his mere amusement. He is gonna be the center of all the really serious noise at the Winter Meetings. After now getting Vazquez off the books, he is poised and ready to put his plan(s) into action. Keep your eyes on Williams.
John,
I said it about a week ago - Ant wasn't wrong for wanting Ankiel - he just wanted him for the wrong reasons (skin color)
Sully,
Instead of Gullien and Meche - how about the Yankees cash in on the Florida fire sale and try to bring in Hermida and Josh Johnson.
ST,
I actually agree with you on something. Ken Williams is not paring payroll for the sake of paring payroll - he's got something in mind and I'm curious as to what it is.
CHIP-
My guess would be Williams has layed the groundwork on a Peavy deal. Williams has not only shed contracts, but acquired young, cheap players also. This fits what the Padres are looking for. If it gets to the point where all that's left is for Williams to convince\$$$ Peavy to waive the no trade clause, Peavy is a W\Sox player quickly.
I like the boldness but not the target.
I think he's gearing up to make an offer to CC and maybe deal for a prime CF and 3b (Adrian Beltre makes a ton of sense for them since Fields isn't ready)
braves send 4 players to white sox ! 4 for vazquez? ! they were fleeced. 4 for javy vazquez !
For those not listening to WFAN right now - Mike Francesa just traded Phil Hughes and Austin Jackson to the Pirates for Nate McLouth - talk about guy's I'm glad not to have running the Yankees.
I know none of you guys think this will happen but I have a feeling that Peavy will be coming to NY, along with Burnett. Sabathia will only decide to come to NY if the Angels make an offer below 120mil, which might happen (less years), then I can see Yanks getting all 3. That is why Pettite might not be resigned - Yanks think they can land 3 top of the line starters.
i believe cashman will make a few trades in the near future, the team can't be upgraded all by free agency. peavy is realistic. CF is a concern. i don't believe melky/gardner/damon is what they want in the new stadium. mclouth for ajax and hughes ! he doesn't know any other minor leaguer names probably
Lets have a little more fun:
Sticking with my St. Louis trade from above
Yankees get: Wainwright, Ankiel
Cards get: Damon, Melancon, Cano, Melancon
now add the following:
Yankees get: Aaron Harang
Reds get: Ian Kennedy
Harang makes a boatload next season and is coming off a down year - maybe the Yankees can get him cheap for Kennedy.
Oakland A's get: Hideki Matsui
Yankees get: ubiquitous prospect
Oakland is making moves to add players - I don't need much for Hideki and given his knee I wouldn't expect much for him.
Yankees sign: Felipe Lopez for 2nd base (guy is sub average at the plate but can field with anyone)
Yankees sign: Adam Dunn - Ken Rosenthal believes his price has dropped to 3 years $36 mil range, and, since he wasn't tagged for arbitration, the Yankees would not have to give up draft picks for him.
Yankees sign Manny Ramirez - 2 years $44 mil with an option for a 3rd year
So, what do we have:
Jeter - SS
Swisher - 1b
Alex - 3b
Manny - DH
Dunn - RF
Nady - LF
Ankiel - CF
Posada - C
Lopez - 2b
Rotation:
Wainwright
Wang
Joba
Harang
Hughes
Sorry - posted Melancon being traded twice to the Cards - the second Melancon was supposed to be Zach McAllister
I watched the program on the yes channel but while Mike F. a real yankee fan has indicated a couple of trades. All it does is confirm the fragile position of the yankees. No big league CF, no SP at this time but if yankee money can't bring the A plan, No number 3 hitter. Cashman must be sitting on a few deals just waiting for the dominos to fall depending on his A plan. So, I suspect that the winter meetings will be the start of the domino effect.
Its going to be a wild ride. I hope if our top choices, Cashman has the ability to keep the team from digging a big hole with over aged long term contracts to fill some of the holes in the lineup. It has taken us the last two years to be one year away from most of the mess of these signings.
that rotation does not put them over the top in the AL East. Yanks need 2 of the following to go along with Joba and Wang: CC or Sheets/Burnett/Peavy, for a strong top 3. Gotta have 3 studs to compete vs boston and tampon bay. CC, Wang, Joba, Peavy, 5th starter. Sign Manny 3 yrs $60million.
Of the young pitchers around baseball who could be had this offseason, the only guy I'd be interested in is Zack Grienke.
And I'd take him over Peavy for a number of reasons.
Wainwright to me doesn't count because there's no way the Cards would deal him. That would be like the Yanks trading Joba or the Rays trading Price.
Dunn and Manny don't exactly fit that "get younger and get better defensively" strategy.
Dunn is still young - but he's essentially a DH. Manny is neither young nor an upgrade defensively.
I know it's all for fun - but why would you keep throwing out insane fantasy rosters that you'd have a hard time putting together on a PS3 game?
The Braves can have Burnett for 5 years. That's insane given his track record.
Worry about the offense later. Get the rotation together first and see what else is available.
They don't need to score 900 runs to make the postseason if they have a formidable starting rotation.
Wow, it only took like two years for someone to agree with me that Ankiel should be a Yankee! He has a great arm. Can throw like 94 MPH from the mound. Great catches and range. Can play RF or CF. Hit 25 HRs in limited playing time ... hurt his stomach muscle. He has a rebuilt knee and arm so he should be ok otherwise.
Way to go Chip! Chip is god ...or reasonable facsimile thereof!
Next ... good to see Bronx Bomber and John G and the gang all here ... such passion and devotion ...
Also ... Seth mentioned the other day that the Yankees won't be hurt by the dying economy. I doubt it. The bailout is over 7.5 trillion $ which is half the US GNP for one year. Hello?! Are they crazy or what?
Jeff Passan on Yahoo! Sports says that high priced season ticket sales are way down. Newsday ran a similar article yesterday I believe, saying that the Yanks are not immune from the financial calamity ...
We'll see what happens with Tex. and CC but we can live without them ... I could live with Mike Jacobs, signing Mark Mulder as a crazy whim and see how the kid from Stanford we drafted pans out ...
How about this line up ...
Ankiel in CF
Nady in RF
Damon in LF
A Rod at 3B
Jeter at SS
Posada a C with Molina to help
Mike Jacobs at 1B
Cano or Eckstein at 2B Try for Brandon Phillips
Pitching ...
Trade for ...
Kevin Gregg (Steal him from the Cubs fast!)
Jeremy Sowers (a young Cliff Lee in waiting!)
Bring back Hawkins cause he did great in Houston
Sign Mark Mulder and let him rest and rehab
Add them to ...
Coke
Aceves
Mo
Bruney
Viz.
Joba
Wang
Pettitte
Hughes
Brackman
And ...
Horne (if he ever shows up)
Sanchez (ditto)
Trade if you can ...
Cano (for he is the ONE guy who can bring good pieces back)
Marte (stupid signing)
Matsui (maybe for a good Japanese player)
Damon (good guy but weak arm and brittle)
Clean house and go with all kids like Larry said!
And ask the Cards for Ludwick too ...!
The Yankees are an international team so you need the right mix ... Aceves for Mexico ... a good solid non brittle Japanese player ... we have Wang from Taipei ... we have many Central American players/Panama/Carib et cetera ... now we need to secure the best USA talent ... Hawkins throwing well and Brandon Phillips would be good additions for several reasons.
Of course they would have to come together as a team on and off the field ... which is a bit tricky ...
It will be a good season ... you'll see! Boston and Tampa are not that much better than us ...
Viper: I like Grienke. He can give you solid starts and has good stuff. The only knock that I have heard about him is his need for medication for an anxiety condition. Pitching in NY can amp that condition. But I still like him and DeJesus from the KC team. Kennedy, Melky and a pitching prospect should get it done because DeJesus has a fair contract but not for KC.
Unreal.
Only Mr. Imperial Wizard cares about the ethnic background of these players.
Silly me, but the only thing I care about is winning ball games and I'm guessing the Yankee front office probably feels the same way.
Larry,
That anxiety stuff is way overblown. It hasn't been an issue since he took his leave a few years ago.
Plus, he's fearless on the mound and pretty cocky too.
I don't expect any deal for him because the price is probably too high, but I think he's going to evolve into one of the best young pitchers in the league and I'd love to have him.