Slow down on Peavy
Guys, I saw some of you were getting excited about the possibility the Yankees could re-enter the trade talks on Jake Peavy. Don't get too excited about that one, as it's highly unlikely to happen. The Yankees are so far down on Peavy's list the only way he'd agree to come is if the Yankees added years and multi-millions to his contract. They're not enthused about giving up prospects and lots of years/dollars. That's why they backed off on Johan Santana last year.
Peavy is the slimmest of possibilities. There's a much better chance of the Yankees landing CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and/or Derek Lowe.
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Posted by kobrien on November 15, 2008 2:58 PM
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Comments (29)
Oh Kat, Diane and Viper...cant a fan dream a little? I know it would never happen, just having a little fun. Hey, while you're at it, tell me Santa is just my parents, the Toothfairy is my grandma, Valentines day was made to stimulate the economy, All Saints day is just a Catholic church ripoff of the pagan All Souls day, Native Americans didnt help out the Pilgrims on that 1st Thanksgiving dinner and that giant bunnies with colored eggs dont related to Jesus.
OK, lets 'keep it real'....I see that Yanks signing CC, he pans out...AJ signs with the Red Sox...Lowe signs with the Brewers...Peavy is traded to the Cubs..and the Yanks settle for Sheets, much to my delight.
Not as much fun, more of a 3 yards and a cloud of dust play. Hey guys, every once in a while its OK to run a double reverse throwback to the QB play...you know, just to mix things up a lil.
Hey Jim A., thanks for humoring me buddy!
Dreams are wonderful and we are here, partly, to indulge them! But since I didn't spend my childhood sitting on the floor of my room shuffling and reshuffling different combos of bubble gum cards I'm just not equipped for the fantasy-GM game... ;-)
But! SHOPPING!!
Think about it. FA season is uniquely suited to the feminine pastime!
Mmm. Yes, I'll take two of the giant size. And look at this discount...
(With apologies to anyone offended by my political incorrectness.)
Responding to something from the last thread - Viper - Is there anyone out there who didn't know that the Yankees were trying to sign Sabathia, Lowe and Burnett before Hank said it?
It's not like he gave away inside secrets, not like he told the press that the Yankees and Giants are deep in talks to bring Tim Lincecum to the Bronx...I think you're getting worked up over nothing. He signs the checks he can say whatever he wants.
I don't believe the Peavy trade would happen for NY. He has stated a preferance for the south and the NL. Plus he would cost prospects plus a big time raise. By signing two of the FA crop the Yankees could bolster the rotation while allowing the youn pitchers to develop without throwing them to the wolves.
Now if a ridiculous trade comes along where NY pays little on the return I am all for it, though I doubt that will happen.
DRU,
We can all dream buddy...nothing wrong with it ;-)
HAHA...Diane, Realist...good stuff!
"A little nonsense now and then is relished by the wisest men. "
" *We* are the music makers... and *we* are the dreamers of dreams."
Diane
Thank you for saying it first!!
You think any of these names are gonna be able to actually throw more than 2 pitches for strikes??
I'm not sure I'd be able to handle a staff consisting of such remarkable ability ;-)
Ps. I too am embarrassingly obsessed with this time of year. I actually set my IPhone to vibrate with every update the Google people receive IN REAL TIME.
That means every 3 to 12 mins or so I get I'm checking everything from Tyler Kepner and Rosenthal to blog threads from Kansas City HAH
Anywhere else that would be a bit pathetic but I know most of us here understand.
Absolutely no way the Yanks should even consider the 35 year old Lowe. We have all seen this disaster movie far too many times. Forget wasting the dough on the inconsistent Burnett. Just because he and Lowe are the best free agent pitchers on the market, doesn't mean they will get the Yanks a championship. Go get CC, and sign TIEXIERRA. TEX showed he is the real thing aginst the R\Sox in the playoffs. Unlike A-Rod, the brighter the spotlight, the better TEX plays. TEX would benefit the Yanks more short and long term, than either Burnett and or Lowe. The guy is clutch and class.
Careful there "STRAIGHT TALKER" you'll wake Debbi Downer (AKA Viper) Sabathia AND Tex!!!
SHame on you that's crazy talk!!
The Yankees moves should be painfully obvious ... first, sign CC (no brainer). Forget about Burnett (big time injury history and only seems to dominate the Yanks and to some degree the Sox ... no thank you). Forget Lowe (yes, he's an innings eater but he has performed much better in the NL than he did when he was on the Sox ... plus, he's pitching against some of the worst hitting teams in the NL ... no thanks). How about Sheets? The guy is an absolutely dominant pitcher (when he pitches of course) and unlike Pavano seems to be a gamer. He'll come cheap (compared to a guy like Burnett) and when healthy he'll be a stud.
Soooo ... if we had a rotation of CC, Wang, Sheets (when healthy) Joba and Pettite (on a 1 year deal) how could anyone argue with that? Plus, does everyone remember a guy named Hughes? Not a bad 6th starter. Plus we have a ton of kids who could slot into that 5th spot if (or when) Sheets goes down. Why do we need a stud pitcher 1-5??? The 5th spot is for rookies, journeyman types, etc. And Yanks have TONS of options for that spot.
On offense, just offer Tex 6 years and $125 mill. He'd be 34 when that contract ends (young enough for another big 4-6 year deal from someone) and Yanks get a solid switch hitting first baseman w/ a great glove.
We can get by with what we have in the OF (Swisher, Damon, Nady, Gardner, Melky + Matsui). Next year there are super FA's like Holliday, Crawford, Ordonez + Bay for the OF and Bedard, Escobar, Hudson, Lackey, Lee, Myers + Webb for pitching. A much better shopping list and Yanks can be very selective.
So, CC a MUST. Reel in Sheets on the cheap. And offer a nice 6 year deal to Tex. If Tex passes then explore trade options but if your Tex and you see the Yanks just inked CC and Sheets you have to be interested, no?
Finally had the time today to read through some evaluations of the FA market, including Keith Law's top 50 on ESPN.com I know Chip, for one, can't stand Law, and I suspect there are others here who have their qualms with him. Maybe I haven't read him enough, or paid enough attention, to know the difference or notice any major goofs or misstatements. But I didn't have to go looking for the piece, and it was an easy read.
I've been waffling (quietly) on Burnett, Lowe and Sheets. Burnett's reputed attitude and questionable durability have scared me from the start. I was happy to see Sheets finally have a full, stellar season for the Brew Crew--I always thought he'd be dominant if he could stay upright--but if it were my money on direct deposit to Ben's account, there's no way I sign him.
So I kept coming back to Lowe. He's older, sure, but he'll take a shorter contract. Ideally, in two years, Hughes and/or IPK and maybe one of the other young guns in the system will be ready. I can easily see Hughes struggling for another season, season and a half, then breaking through at 24 in 2010. That's not an uncommon path for for front-line starters to take to the big time. Lowe's sinkerball keeps the ball in the park; he comes up big in big situations, and he's familiar with AL East. He could serve as a nice holdover for two or three years--a Jimmy Key-type veteran who could help instruct the young guys, and keep the team competitive for 18 months or so.
Then it dawned on me: a sinkerball pitcher. If the Yankee defense is as bad as it's been made out to be in the last few months, perhaps they should go with a guy who doesn't toss so many groundballs, a K-or-tater type guy (preferably more K than dinger).
Then again, I find the whole suggestion that Jeter, A-Rod and Cano comprise one of the worst infield defenses in the league to be laughable. I 've never been able to understand how they gauge the whole range-factor thing, or how they fit it into a statistical model and come up with a number. I can tell Jeter's lost a step, but do the models account for arm-strength, positioning, consistency, cleverness and simply smart baseball on a day-in, day-out basis? What about impossible plays that no one else makes?
It's not my place to question the validity of statistical models. I have trouble counting above 12. Besides, statistics are part of what make the game so much fun. Without them, I wouldn't have spent my entire childhood on the floor of my room with bubble-gum cards when I could have been out shopping at an indoor mall.
Still, if the stat guys are right and the Yankee infield D stinks as much as they say, then maybe Wang's enough sinkerball pitching for the rotation. An additional ground-ball tosser might just cause these DH's masquerading as infielders to be tired out before May.
Not that my vote counts, but I say Cash should go for CC and Lowe. Otherwise, Burnett and Lowe.
The only other guy who interests me is Penny. May not be ready for 2009, and might need surgery. But he could be had for a bargain price--say, two years and a team option. If he misses a year, so be it.
Finally, anyone interested in Juan Rivera for RF?
Sorry for the dripping sarcasm in much of the post. First day off in eons, and I'm taking it out on the blog.
Cheers, gang.
Cheers DC,
I agree with alot of what you said...
No way I would consider signing the 35 year old LOWE. We have all seen this disaster movie too many times before. Burnett is too inconsistent to gamble on. Save the money for Tiexeirra. The guy showed A-ROD how to perform in the playoffs.
PTRS,
I know you have a problem dealing with reality, but you'd be better off listening to the GM when he himself says in plain old English that it's never going to happen.
You should forget Teixeira unless you're an Angels' fan because they are essentially going to do whatever it takes to retain him.
The Yanks have other priorities and have already traded spare parts for their new first baseman.
Chip,
Hank may be the owner (in name only) but I get the growing suspicion that he's got a personal vendetta against me by consistently getting under my skin every time he opens his mouth.
I guess it's the same feeling you get when Keith Law writes an op-ed column or details his talent evaluating instincts.
But I really hate when Hank opens his big mouth because the media enables him and runs with anything he says, no matter how stupid it is.
Take, for instance, Hank's words a week or two back when he expressed interest in Manny Ramirez when the team clearly has other priorities and knows it's not going to happen.
But then we get this quote the other day from Pete Abe regarding Hank and Manny that exposes the obvious truth:
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Forgot to mention a few things yesterday: Hank Steinbrenner chased down an AP reporter in Tampa and issued a few thoughts. A big Manny fan a few weeks ago, Little Stein admits the Yankees aren’t going to make him an offer. “Not yet. It might be advantageous to do at some point,” he said.
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It's stuff like that which drives me up a wall about Hank Steinbrenner.
He doesn't do his team an ounce of good by spouting off as often as he does and, frankly, he embarrasses the entire organization every time he does it.
Maybe that's okay with you, but it bugs the crap out of me - especially when he's not even the guy who makes the decisions and steps on the toes of the guys who do (Hal and Cashman).
No, there's nothing I can do about it because his last name happens to be Steinbrenner. But I would think I can't be the only one who is troubled by this dope always saying stupid things to the media.
Everyone has an opinion but there is one thought that we all have. We must not be denied in signing CC.
Straight Talker - careful with your comparisons of Tex and A-rod in the post season: Tex went from being a slugger in the regular season to a singles hitter in the post season.
The Yankees will only sign Lowe if Mike Mussina retires.
The Yankees have sold Darrell Rasner's rights to the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles of Japan's Pacific League.
Rasner and his agent read the tea leaves and realized that Rasner was not going to have a spot in the rotation and told Cashman that he wanted to pitch in Japan. Brian made it happen.
Just throwing this out for the heck of it.
Yankees sign CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and make the following deal.
Wang, Xavier Nady, Ian Kennedy, and Brett Gardner to the Padres for Jake Peavy, Adrian Gonzalez and Scott Hairston.
That leaves us with the following:
Rotation:
Sabathia
Peavy
Burnett
Joba
Hughes
Lineup:
Damon - LF
Jeter - SS
Gonzalez - 1b
Alex - 3b
Matsui - DH
Posada - C
Swisher - RF
Cano - 2b
Hairston - CF
The more I see video of Sheets, I think, hey why not? Despite him being injured a lot, he has tremendous GAS and his breaking stuff is filthy! Since we're all dreaming up stuff, how about this rotation?
Sabathia
Wanger
Sheets
Burnett
Joba
All have GAS! Even Wanger can reach 95, he's reached 97 at times! Power with nasty breaking stuff, all potential and actual aces! Oh I know I have a better chance of winning the NYC Mega millions 3 times over, but heck I have right to do this ehh?? With that rotation and Hughes in the wings, who has gas and nastiness as well...oh boy.
That rotation and our bullpen to compliment them could NOT be matched! Guys, let's say we had a shot at this coming true, would you be iffy on how Andy would feel about it? In other words, would you feel it would bight the yanks in the backside if they "stiff" Andy once again? Think Andy would feel betrayed? And would we really care because of the potential of this dream rotation?
YANKEE MASTER PLAN
(1) Sign CC
(2) Sign TEX
(3) Sign Sheets
(4) Sign Orlando Hudson
(5) Trade Cano for the Dodgers CF Kemp
(6) Celebrate another World Series Championship
Do you even bother to pay attention to what's going on?
They aren't signing Sabathia and Teixeira. They just traded for their first baseman.
And as much as I'd like to see a Cano-for-Kemp deal - I understand Cashman doesn't reserve the same enthusiasm for such a move and it's probably not going to happen and subsequently means they'd have no use for Hudson.
Ben Sheets?
Thanks to Hank, it's been well documented that they have their eyes set on reeling in Sabathia and either Burnett or Lowe - but where have you seen any interest on their part in Sheets?
The truth is - you haven't and there's no sign that will change. And the reason why is because he's nearly as injury prone as Glass Carl Pavano.
But, hey, don't let reality get in the way of your insane "straight talk."
Chip,
Since you’ve already acknowledged your proposal is fantasy, here’s some solicited feedback for the sake of discussion. I’ll then veer off the road a bit to address an issue people so often overlook in determining a pitcher’s value.
And I’ll do it in two posts to break up the monotony and so one post isn’t so mind-numbingly long.
Anyways, first off, I'd rather have Wang right now over Peavy – so I’d never include him in such a trade.
Whether the Wang naysayers admit it or not, we were painfully reminded every fifth day just how valuable he is to this team as evidenced by the devastation of the rotation when he went down. Unlike Wang, we just don't know how effective Peavy would be in such a dramatically tougher environment in every major facet of the game (bigger stage, better league, much better division, etc, etc).
And even if Peavy does adjust to the AL East, it might take awhile like in the case of Beckett in 2006. Plainly speaking, Beckett was terrible and no better than Randy Johnson that season – a guy who everyone, including me, was glad to see gone when he was dealt back to the D-Backs.
If Peavy can’t handle the adjustment for whatever reason, they are stuck with him for a bloody long time since he’s signed through 2012 and the odds are good he would require an added extension from the Yanks to accept such a deal. Peavy will earn $8M in 2009, $15M in 2010, $16M in 2011, $17M in 2012, and has a club option for $22M in 2013.
By contrast, Wang earned just $4M in 2008 and probably won’t get a ton more than that until he hits free agency in a couple of years.
So any trade for Peavy would be an enormous high stakes poker gamble on Cashman’s part and wouldn’t make a lot of sense simply from a business perspective if Wang was included in said deal.
Just to be clear, I’m not 100% opposed to acquiring Peavy if the price is right (although I tend to doubt that it will ever be right), but certainly not at the expense of losing an extremely valuable guy like Wang.
The other point worth discussing is that Yankee pitchers threw at least 7.0 IP just 33 times in 162 starts in 2008 (compared to 24 times in 35 starts by Sabathia himself) and Wang accomplished that feat 7 times in his limited 15 starts.
That number would have been 8 times in 15 starts had he not been injured in the 6th inning of a game they eventually won 11-0 in Houston.
This is why the Wang is not an ace argument is both stupid and pointless. Until the injury, he was the most underappreciated and undervalued player on this team.
Pettitte threw at least 7.0 IP a total of 11 times in 33 starts and even with the great season Moose had - he did it just 8 times in 34 starts.
The rest of the Yankee rotation combined did it just 7 times in 80 starts in 2008.
And in case anyone wanted to know, here's the number of times Yankee pitchers threw at least 7.0 IP in a start during the dynasty years and every year since:
1996: 54
1997: 77
1998: 91
1999: 69
2000: 67
2001: 64
2002: 79
2003: 87
2004: 53
2005: 56
2006: 44
2007: 43
2008: 33
These totals highlight just how good those Yankee rotations were back then and it shouldn't surprise anyone that they haven't been back to the World Series since these numbers went into a downward spiral.
So what's the lesson in all of this?
It's that strong starting pitching still is the best and fastest way build a championship caliber ball club and the reason why throwing big money at a horse like Sabathia is the right thing to do.
The best strategy for winning hasn't really changed all that much since the dynasty.
Good stuff Viper!
It looks like either Miranda or Swisher will be the starting 1B as it stands now .If Miranda makes some noise in ST then NY will have to consider him as a 1B option.
I can't imagine NY going into the 09 season without a good # 3 hitter .The Yanks have to be considering other offensive players then what they currently have...stay tuned.
Viper,
Regarding your 07:25- BRAVO!!!! That's exactly the way I feel. First of all, I don't even like Peavy's attitude at all and I do not trust him pitching outside San Diego and secondly, Wang has been nothing but steady for the Yanks and I've been saying for two seasons that he would be even better if he were slotted in the number two spot in the rotation and he will be just fine. Trading for Swisher sent Scott Boras a message that the Yanks won't play his game for the next two months and now the Angels think they have all the leverage but we'll see what happens. Remember when we didn't think the Yanks were interested in Damon at all? Then one morning we woke up and found out he was a Yank.
Regarding Teixeira, I know you have slammed the door there but if the Yanks think they can get him for 6 years, I think they will try to do it, but I also think they are very much prepared to go with Swisher or Miranda.
SO VIPER...
What is YOUR rotation? All I hear is complaints.
I do have one thing to say , In no way I would trade Nady as of right now he was the best OF we had in terms of projections and he is cheap. and still fairly Young. Trading him for peavy and Hairston is not logical (I will refrain from calling people stupid. That is not nice)
As for Hank, I told you long ago what hank does is INTENTIONAL he is however assigned to player issues that was what he wanted when the take over came about, the reason for him taking the player duties is due to him being able to stay in Tampa more.
his recents comments were echoed by his brother and this includes manny but just like I said also each passing day the gamble of baseball changes s oof course goals changes.
WHen the comment was first said Manny was a thought or a consideration that all changed when Swisher was placed in their lap.
right now the team is hoping to have an powerful 1-3 (leave Joba out of this I'll explain) If they can have CC, Peavy , and Wang we are talking trouble in a good way now lets place joba Back in this , if he continues to pitch the way he did then your arsenal just got stronger both mentally and on paper, you see by having CC headline your staff followed by a wang then a peavy followed by a joba thsi would be ideal and great becasue the ACE pressure is off of Joba and he then becomes a number 4 pitcher which would mean less wear and tear and also means a number for pitcher with ACE like stuff. THAT LADIES AND GENTLEMEN IS WHAT you call scary. Now lets say wang is traded (hope not ) meaning a contract would be offered immediatley to Burnett with secondary's being Lowe (blah) which would then shift the rotation and have burnett as your number three. Which would make him better due to his Matchup's rather than being a number two or one (this same issue effects Wang who normally faces an ACE)
we like to bash pitchers like Peavy or Burnett but we forget the obvious , All this team needed was pitchers to keep them in the game and with these guys issues I doubt that even they are giving up 5-6 runs in the first three innings , the issue we had was we was out of the game and we need pitchers to keep us in the game. Our bullpen is improved so that is an big asset and a lure for pitchers our offense is basically solid but after we take care of the pitchers we will address it.
Angel's owner Moreno's comments concerning signing Manny, were aimed directly at TEX. TEX could very easily fall right into the Yanks laps. Swisher is most valuable to the Yanks getting 400 AB's as a 4th outfiielder\bench player. Passing on TEX is a mistake along the lines of passing on Santana. Chamberlain should remain the bridge to MO. He physically just cant take being a starter.
Hey Chip - I would be thrilled to death if AR was even a SINGLES hitter in the post season!!!
Bomber,
If they sign Sabathia, I'd be fine with a Sabathia, Wang, Pettitte, and Joba rotation to start and then see what else is available via the trade market.
Perhaps the best case scenario would be for Moose to change his mind about retiring and take that last open slot.
I know everyone wants Burnett and/or Lowe but they aren't worth signing. Burnett is overrated and has a long history of injuries and Lowe is best suited to pitch in the NL.Bomber,
If they sign Sabathia, I'd be fine with a Sabathia, Wang, Pettitte, and Joba rotation to start and then see what else is available via the trade market.
Perhaps the best case scenario would be for Moose to change his mind about retiring and take that last open slot.
I know everyone wants Burnett and/or Lowe but they aren't worth signing. Burnett is overrated and has a long history of injuries and Lowe is best suited to pitch in the NL.
Maybe Cashman can find a salary dump in the same way he found Swisher and get another starter if Moose does the expected and hangs it up.
It's tough to single out any specific names because we don't know exactly who is or will be available. I'm sure there are names out there for the taking that we don't know about.
And for what it's worth, I don't care whether Hank's quotes are intentional or not. It's a strategy that doesn't work and makes the organization look stupid - which doesn't benefit them one iota.
Maybe he's playing some kind of goofy good cop/bad cop routine with his brother and Cashman - but I fail to see how this tactic does anything but make the Yankee front office sound like a bunch of incompetent morons.
Maybe Cashman can find a salary dump in the same way he found Swisher and get another starter if Moose does the expected and hangs it up.
It's tough to single out any specific names because we don't know exactly who is or will be available. I'm sure there are names out there for the taking that we don't know about.
And for what it's worth, I don't care whether Hank's quotes are intentional or not. It's a strategy that doesn't work and makes the organization look stupid - which doesn't benefit them one iota.
Maybe he's playing some kind of goofy good cop/bad cop routine with his brother and Cashman - but I fail to see how this tactic does anything but make the Yankee front office sound like a bunch of incompetent morons.