A reader sent this to me regarding hitting with runners in scoring position. It was done by a college statistics professor. Food for thought:
"Last year, A-Rod had 54 HR and Howie Kendrick had 5. This year, A-Rod has
28 HR and Kendrick has 3. Would you bet even money that A-Rod will outhomer
Kendrick in 2009? Obviously you'd take that bet.
Last year, A-Rod hit .333 with RISP and slugged .678, while Kendrick hit
.247 with RISP and slugged .306. This year, A-Rod has hit .246 with RISP
and slugged .413, while Kendrick has hit .380 and slugged .506. How much
would you bet that Kendrick will continue to outhit A-Rod in those
situations?
Year-by-year home run totals are consistent, because they accurately
reflect the player's underlying skill -- power. Year-by-year RISP
statistics are not consistent and often do not accurately reflect the
underlying skill -- clutch hitting -- because they are inherently noisy.
Mickey Mantle, in consecutive years, had the following averages with RISP:
.444 .345 .274 .206 .274 .364
Unless you believe Mantle's actual clutch ability changed by more than a
factor of 2 and back over a six year period, I think's it's clear that
single-season RISP numbers are subject to large fluctuations and therefore
unreliable.
Obviously the ability to hit with RISP is important. But I would not put
much stock in a single season's RISP numbers."
Comments (5)
Great story Kat, but during the season when the player is having an off year, I would alter the lineup to minimize the lost production. In other words, put the hot hand in the RBI spots and put the cold player in a less damaging one.
An off year may not much affect the player's career numbers but it can strongly affect the team's season that particular year. I'm with Rick. Play the hot hand where the team will benefit most in the current season.
Ok, let's say A-Rod is having an off year while batting .310/28HR/81 RBI so far.....who do you bring in that will be better right now? A-Rod is a victim of his own production a lot of times. Take a case in point the season before last when it was widely considered that A-Rod had a "terrible" year and across town, David Wright had a phenomenal year and was the new King of Queens, but when you looked at the numbers, their seasons were essentially the same with Wright having a higher BA by a bit, and A-Rod hitting more HR's.
The numbers in baseball are like the Bible, 20 people can read them and they can all get a different message from them.
Am I satisfied with what A-Rod is doing this year? Nope, not at all but right now he's in a slump and that's fine, players have them and besides him there are plenty of other culprits on the team. Hitting is contagious and right now nobody is spreading any love (or hits).
I think the Mickey Mantle statistic was very telling....
Welcome back Diane.
Thank you, Jim A.
I wasn't thinking just of AR but of playing the hot hand in general, and constructing lineups with factors like that in mind. These are areas in which I am hoping that Girardi will improve next year -- who he plays and where he plays them.
Did something change? It seems easier to post now. And it looks like more people are posting. Im glad to see it. I do not really post much but I like reading everyones oppinions. And all the info people find out. I think the Yanks are done but deep down inside Im hoping Im wrong. Go Yanks!!!!