On the Yankees beat

Who's pitching the 2nd game of this series?

Is Pettitte okay now?

I figured Hughes would pitch the second game but I've got him scheduled for thursday against McGowan (from my fantasy teams) which should be cool.

Just curious cause I'd rather not think about an AJ Burnett vs. M&M game 2...Nomsayin.

Happy Rain Delay..*ahem* Opening Day!!!

Its Moose on Wednesday, we might be rained out today Mike.

WOW Kat, going out on a limb with some of those like Pedro for NL CY Young. Here's mine...

Yankees go 94-68 and win the wild card

AL East champ: Red Sox
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Angels

ALCS: Yanks over Tigers

NL East: Mets
NL Central: Cubs
NL West: Diamondbacks
NL wild card: Phils

NLCS: Phils over Cubs

World Series: Yanks over Phils

AL MVP: Miggy Cabrera
AL Cy Young: Eric Bedard

NL MVP: Matt Holliday
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana

I was going to have the Tigers winning it all, but its just preseason fun, so Im going with the Yanks....yeah, Im a homer!

HYD..

Ill be at the game Wednesday with a couple guys. We usually get there about 4:30 and go to the top level of the parking deck next to the stadium ( RF ). We’ll be playing wiffle ball, drinking beers and grilling. We have to meet up my friend!

Anyone else going to be there???

Um the Tigers have a pretty good 3 4 5 in their batting order.

:-)

Poor Gil Meche

originally posted on myspace blog March 3 2008

AL East - Boston Red Sox

AL Central - Detroit Tigers

AL West - Seattle Mariners

AL Wildcard - New York Yankees

NL East - New York Mets

NL Central - Chicago Cubs

NL West - Los Angeles Dodgers

NL Wildcard - Milwaukee Brewers or San Diego Padres

AL MVP - Alex Rodriguez (or Carl Crawford)

AL Cy Young - Justin Verlander (or Eric Bedard)

NL MVP - David Wright (or Hanley Ramirez)

NL Cy Young - Dan Haren (non Johan Santana Prediction)

AL Playoffs - Yankees over Tigers / Red Sox over Mariners

Yankees over Red Sox

NL Playoffs - Mets over Brewers/Padres / Dodgers over Cubs

Dodgers over Mets

World Series - Yankees over Dodgers

Consider me there DRU! I may have some extra tickets to Wednesday's game if anyone's interested. The big game for me and my friends is going to see Phil on Thursday. I've seen his first game in person every year since '06.

DAMN!!! Wish I was going to that Thursday game. You going by yourself Wednesday?

What is it that everyone is seeing with the Cubs that I am not? They have OK pitching and below average hitting yet they appear the darling of the pre-season predictions? I mean Ted Lilly is their #2 pitcher! Kerry Wood the closer! Are you people all insane or am I just missing it?

Last year they won 85 games plauing in maybe the easiest division in baseball. What have they done to impraove on that?

Nudge, they dont have below average hitting. The main Cub hitters had down years in 07. Lee ( coming off an injury the year before ), Soriano ( was injured on and off all year ), Aramis Ramirez ( missed a month ) hit well below their career averages.

If those guys come back to their career numbers, they will have a solid middle of the lineup. They also added Soto ( young catcher who clubbed 30 HR last year at AAA ) and Fukudome who people compare to Matsui. Theriot and Felix Pie have tons of speed and both could steal 30+ bases. All together, they have potential to be a very good lineup.

SPing

Big Z is a true staff ace.
Rich Hill is a big lefty who had a solid line in his 1st full season ( 11-8, 3.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 183 K ), he’s the true #2.
Lilly, Dempster and Marquis are back end starters who will log decent innings.

RPing

Wood is the closer, sure he's a durable as a wet paper bag, but he's shown dominance this Spring ( 98 MPH heater ). He has the potential to put together a solid year if kept to 1 in an appearance.
If Wood does fail, they have a GREAT backup plain in Carlos Marmol. ( 69in...96K...1.43 ERA...1.10 WHIP ). That kid is FILTHY. Add in Howry for the 7th and Lieber for the long man, and they have a solid pen.

On top of that, the NL Central is weak, so it is ripe for the taking.

Those are just some of the reasons people are picking them this year.

I knew it was coming....

Game postponed until tomorrow night at 7:05 p.m.

Nudge -

I don't have the Cubs in the World Series but I easily have them winning the NL Central. There is no team in that division that wows me (except the Pirates in how awful they are). Chicago's lineup from top to bottom is vastly superior to every other lineup in that division. I agree that their pitching is weak but once again, pitching around baseball is weak so regular season champs will win by slugging.

Not sure, trying to find takers for the tickets. The guys that were supposed to go were guys I worked with at KPMG, but they're all on a project down in Dallas right now. My roommate is making up his mind about going by tonight.

Thursdays tickets are currently claimed, but I'll let you know if anything falls through.

I have to agree w/ you Nudge. The Cubs don't do much for me. Way too much has to go right for them to win it all including:

1. Derek Lee starting to hit for power again
2. Soriano staying healthy and making contact on a regular basis
3. Rookie catcher handling the staff and the grind
4. Zambrano being much more consistent than last season
5. Pie getting on base or getting in the lineup
6. Hill making a big leap in ability to supplant Lilly as the # 2 starter
7. Getting production (innings, wins) from Dempster and Jason Marquis
8. Lilly not punching Sweet Lou
9. Wood staying healthy for more than two days

DRU,

Last year they ranked 7th thru 10th in the offensive stats while playing in a lousy division. Derek Lee hit 40 points over his career average and was also coming off......stuff the years before. Ramirez also batted above his career average last year as did Soriano. Now their power numbers were down suspiciously as was many peoples last year....testing...ahem. That offense stinks. Soriano is a stat producer but nothing else.

Kerry Wood even healthy has never proven to be consistently good as a starter much less being thrust into closing. 98 MPH.....think Farnsworth, Benitez etc etc etc. I would not even pick them for a winning record for money, much less the division, League and WS as some have.

I think McCarthy prediction of Duncan hitting 30+ HR's stands a bigger chance than the Cubs winning anything!

HYD,
What kind of world do we live in when you can't find takers for Yankees tix when you are in the NY metro area! What is wrong with people!

While I'm at it (RANT ALERT):

It seriously p*sses me off when people do not take off their hats or talk to each other during the National Anthem at sporting events. Last night I went to the Nationals-Braves game to see the new stadium and be there for opening day, even though I could care less about either team.
First, people embarrass themselves and this country by booing the President of the United States. I will not get political, but to me you do not boo the President, I don't care if you disagree with his policies or whatever, respect the office!

During the National Anthem, I spotted so many people with their hats on that it drove me nuts. I asked some guy in front afterwards why he didn't take his hat off or make his 20+ year old daughter remove hers and he said "we hate Bush" and I said "so you hate the flag and our country as well then?". He was dirtbag whom I wanted to slap to say the least and his pig of a daughter could give Kobayashi a run for him money in a chili dog eating contest as she inhaled 3 of them in under 30 seconds.

These two jackasses sang "Take me out to the ballgame" at the top of their lungs but wouldn't/couldn't sing the National Anthem. My friends and I had a bet that they didn't even know the words.

This is very disheartening to be honest. This is in stark contrast to what I found in Tampa, when most of the older folks in the crowd sang the National Anthem loud and proud, with their hands over their hearts.
END OF RANT and apologies to those who take offense

By the way, Nationals Park is nice, not great, but nice. The good: I like the "Red Porch" where you can sit at a bar, watch the game from left center field and play games like X-box etc. and it's FREE to get in there to anyone with a ticket to the game.
There is a wide assortment of food; they serve beer in the metal bottles so it stays cold longer and the huge scoreboard/video board is cool but I can't understand how it is not a distraction to the hitters.
The bad: the seats are extremely small with no legroom; food is only sold in the middle levels so everyone has to go there and the lines were very long, but it's Washington and they probably won't have big crowds to worry about for long.
The fans last night were lame. The stadium basically cleared out around the 7th inning with the home team leading 2-1! They missed the face of the franchise (Ryan Zimmerman) hitting a walk off homer to win the game in the inaugural game at their new park, how pathetic is that? It's like they showed up to say they went to the game and left because they were bored.
Who can imagine Yankee Stadium clearing out with the Yanks ahead by one run?

There are no fans like Yankees, Red Sox and Philly fans I guess.

Jim A,

Im with you on all points. I don't care who the president is, he should be shown at least the courtesy you would show a stranger. Also it never hurts to show you care for the country in which you live. It is made up of lots of Us's (new word). So if you don't like it then you don't like me you or yourself. Stand up and show some respect to Us and those around including the POTUS.

The power numbers are what I was referring to. Hey, Im not saying that they are the best team in the league. But who is going to win that division? If you think the Cubs needed things to fall the right way to win, look at the other teams...

Reds - they have some pop, but their BA is one of the worst in the league. They are depending on Griff making it through the year, while also depending on FA fodder Corey Patterson to lead off. Their bullpen is horrible leading up to new closer Cordero. Their staff is miserable after Harang

Pirates - No hitting or pitching...move along.

Cards - Will Big Al make it through the year? Who else is in their lineup? Their opening day starter is Wainwright. Carp and Mulder are hurt. They just picked up their #2 in Lohse??? Kyle Loshe???? Are you kidding me??? Who else..Looper? Wellemeyer? Thompson? Maybe the worst rotation in all the bigs.

Houston - Very solid hitting. I dont trust Valverde in the closer role and they lost their key setup men in the offseason. They have the least amount of depth in their rotation. After Oswalt, there is NOTHING. Wandy Rodriguez as their #2???

Brew Crew - The wild card in the division. Love their hitting. Their SPing is a little suspect. Especially if Sheets gets injured again..like he does every year. They have no #2. Is Bush, Suppan and Villenaveu really better than Dempster, Lilly and Marquis? Nope Their pen is going to fall off by trading down from Cordero to Gagne.

Look at those teams and you'll see that the Cubs have the best chance of winning that division. The only other team with a shot at it is the Brew Crew. Its a weak division and the Cubs look like the best team from top to bottom.

Jim A: Thanks for the write up on Nationals Park. I plan to take a trip down there sometime this summer. Probably for a Mets/Nats game since a few of my buddies are Mets fans, though they only play the Mets at home on weekdays, so that might not work. We were actually thinking maybe we could catch an afternoon game in Baltimore and a night game in DC or vice versa one weekend. Make our own day/night doubleheader.

It's kind of a shame about the tickets, but it's not like any of my friends are out that much money since they can't go. We picked up the $5 Fuji tickets, so even after the ticketmaster charges they only cost like $12 each. When those tickets are regularly $40, you can't go wrong for $12.

Email: wag279@gmail.com if you are interested

Jim A, while Im not a big Bush man ( thats what she said ). I cant see not showing respect for the national anthem. I love how the Yanks handle that situation. Everyone in the stadium sings along with Kate Smith. Love that and it always gives me the chills at the Stadium.

For some of the older fans on this blog, I thought you'd remember the name Roy White. I have to say, initially, the name meant nothing to me when I saw it, so I had to google it, but anyway, I wanted to hear what guys on the blog thought of him. The main reason I ask and the info I wanted to point out is that on May 16, he'll be signing autographs at the Trenton Thunder game. It's the promotion that night.

For those with kids 12 and under:

The Trenton Thunder offer a really great deal (makes me wish I had one myself). Basically, you sign up your kid and for $15 plus $5 shipping, you get 4 tickets to three different Sunday games throughout the season (that's 12 tickets total or a $120 value). They also give your kid a Kids Club T-Shirt, 10% off from the Thunder Team Store, a newsletter, entry into a raffle for autographed memorabilia, and to me, the best part, admission to an autograph session after the third game (August 24). I think it's a great program that they offer and I sponsor a few kids either at the Boys and Girls Club or Big Brother/Big Sister each summer. If you are interested and need more details on the program, let me know and I'll get you the info you need.

Yanks are best team and will win it all.
Tigers will not make playoffs.
Indians are 2nd best team in baseball.
Roy White was a good solid player. I remember him falling into stands at the stadium to take away a HR some 30 odd years ago. I forget the opponent but I believe Sam McDowell pitched for the Yanks that day.

Bill White played during the pitiful years. If Sudden Sam was pitching it was like 1973ish.

HYD, Roy White was the man! Probably one of the least "bally-hooed" Yankees of the late 70's (you had Reggie, Dent, Munson, Nettles, Guidry, Mick "the Quick" Rivers, Sweet Lou, Goose and Billy Martin of course). Even, to a lesser degree, guys like Oscar Gamble, Chris Chambliss and "the chicken" Fred Stanley all seemed to garner more attention than Roy. He seemed like a quiet guy who just went about his business ... best part of Roy White was his batting stance ... picture this: stand at the plate and point your 2 knees in at each other. Classic! That was my batting stance for every wiffle ball game I played until the age of 14!

HYD: Roy White is a class guy and could play the game.

Was it Roy White and Paul Blair who had that terrible collision in the OF back in the what, mid 70's? Some of our old timers can tell us about it.

I admit it -- I'm selfishly pleased that the game will be played at a time that I can see it live...

Question for you guys:

Which streak ends first - the Cubs WS drought or the Mets No-hitter drought?

My bet is on the Mets - Santana's gotta have one in him in the next 7 years right?

I agree that what happened with the President Sunday night was disrespectful, but (and this pains me because I'm not a Joe Morgan guy) the interaction when he was in the booth was great - did not realize how tight Morgan and the President were.

Here's another question - which is the more loaded position right now in terms of good young players - 3b, 2b, or SS?

At 2nd we've got Cano, Weeks, Phillips, Kendrick, Utley, Pedroia, Uggla, and, if you want to put him in the mix, I would even include Aaron Hill as an up and comer on that list

SS has Rollins, Reyes, Ramirez (and that's just the R's in the NL East) throw in Khalil Greene, Stephen Drew, Yuniel Escobar and Brandon Wood if he's ever given a shot.

3B is Gordon, Wright, Miguel Cabrera, Zimmerman, Josh Fields and Evan Longoria on the cusp - not to mention the best player in the game (Alex - but he doesn't really fit on this list because of his age)

Roy White coached for the Yankees as recently as three or four years ago.

Here's good news - and I agree with him:

Mathematician foresees romps for Major League Baseball's American League in 2008

NJIT’s indefatigable math professor Bruce Bukiet is once again opining on outcomes for this season’s Major League Baseball teams. His picks are based on a mathematical model he developed in 2000.

Operations Research published Bukiet’s original mathematical model on which his predictions are based. The model computes the probability of a team winning a game against another team with given hitters, bench, starting pitcher, relievers and home field advantage.

His predictions follow, including expected number of wins for each team.

“The New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels should make the playoffs in the American League (AL) in 2008 with the other teams lagging well behind,” he said.

“The National League (NL) should see much tighter races, with the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves winning the East and the wild card, respectively, while in the Central and West Divisions only the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Francisco Giants have no real shot of making it to the post-season.” The Yankees and Red Sox should tie for baseball’s best record with 98 wins, with both teams making the post-season, one as AL East winner and the other as the AL wild card team. The next closest team in their division, the Toronto Blue Jays, should wind up 12 games back. In the AL Central Division, the Tigers should win, besting the Cleveland Indians by 9 games, while the Angels should win AL West by 14 games over the Seattle Mariners.

In the National League Central Division, Bukiet’s model calls for the top five teams to be within five wins of each other. With the model’s typical error, any team but the Pittsburgh Pirates (with 71 wins) could eke out the division championship. Bukiet calls for the Milwaukee Brewers to win 84, the Chicago Cubs to win 83, the Cincinnati Reds to win 81, the St. Louis Cardinals to win 80 and the Houston Astros to win 79 games.

In the NL West, the contest should be closer, said Bukiet, whose model has the top four teams within three wins of each other. The Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres, who had to play a tie-breaker to decide the wild card team in 2007 look like they might have to do it again, playing for the NL West title, both winning 85 games in 2008. The Arizona Diamondbacks should be close behind with 83 wins and the Los Angeles Dodgers can expect 82. Only the San Francisco Giants should lag with 75.

The expected number of wins for each team is:

AL East: Yankees – 98; Red Sox – 98; Blue Jays – 86; Rays – 75; Orioles – 63;
AL Central: Tigers – 96; Indians – 87; White Sox – 79; Twins – 74; Royals 63;
AL West: Angels – 92; Mariners – 78; A’s – 75; Rangers – 70;
NL East: Mets – 92; Braves – 89; Phillies – 84; Nationals – 73; Marlins – 70;
NL Central: Brewers – 84; Cubs – 83; Reds – 81; Cards – 80; Astros – 79; Pirates – 71;
NL West: Rockies – 85; Padres – 85; Diamondbacks – 83; Dodgers – 82; Giants – 75;
"These results give a guide of how teams ought to perform during the season but there are so many unknowns, especially concerning trades, injuries and how rookies will perform that cannot be taken into account,” added Bukiet.

Chip, my man...you missed probably the best young SS in the entire league, NL or AL. Troy Tulowitzki. If it wasnt for Ryan Braun's silly year at the plate, Troy would have been NL ROY. That kid has it all! He can hit for average, hit for power, hit in the clutch and is right now one of the, if not THE best fielding SS in any league. Led all SS's in every defensive cat last year..AS A ROOKIE! He's also a natural leader and a real good kid. He tips the scales in favor of the SS's.

FYI - today was a prefect example of why Detroit wont win a WS this year. Their bullpen blew the lead, then blew the game late against the "Power House" KC Royals. Expect more of that same line in 08. Their O is Outstanding, but their Bullpen is Bullsh!t. Even if/when Zumaya comes back and Rodney can actually stay off the DL for 6 weeks straight, their will still have problems with Todd Jones giving up taters late. They seem to be everyone’s sweetheart team, but they even have issues in their starting rotation. After Verlander, the rest of the SP’s are suspect. I bet Bonderman doesn’t make it through this year without a DL stint or two.

ERIC GAGNE!!!!

Up by 3 runs in Chicago, here comes Eric

D. Lee - single
Aramis Ramirez - Walk on 4 pitches
Fukudome - 3 balls, then a strike..then a 3 run homer to tie the game.

In unrelated news Kerry Wood gave up 3 runs in the top of the 9th...lol

Man, it's a shame my boys didn't resign Gagne

GAGNE GOT THE WIN!!!!

Jim A: Paul blair was beaned and was never the same player at the plate.He played for the Yankees and would step in the bucket against certain pitchers. I don't recall Roy involved in a collision.

My choices for The AL East Yankees 96-66, AL Central Cleveland, Al West Mariners, Wild Card Boston. I could replace the Red Sox and Yankees but I'm taking the home boy approach. even the better teams have issues and it comes down to the DL and how often the better players are on it.

DRU,

Chicago is proving me right!

Round 1 to Nudge, damn U!

The Cubbies will win that division!!! "Knock on Wood"

Larry,
I remember Paul Blair clunking heads with someone in the Yankees OF a long time ago when I was a kid. I thought it was Roy White because I remember my mom being upset that he was hurt. Oh well, someone will come up with it sooner or later.

Gagne, K. Wood and Flash Gordon all spit the bit today....not a good day for closers.

Eat your heart out, Brian Cashman!

I deserved to get booed.

At this point in time Tampa, KC and the Washington Nats are all in first place.

And the Mets.

Jon K,

As a math wiz myself I always appreciate a Mathematical approach to things. But Math cannot be used to define physical competitions involving humans. The analysis is revealed to be completely insane by the conclusion that the Giants will be within 10 games of first place in the West.

Nice things to talk about but stick to the differential equations professor.

Last place and 75 wins in a weak division is so ridiculous?

I think how you feel about booing a President depends on what you see as the purpose of the appearance and who you see as its audience. Do you see it as a ceremony in which you are supposed to play a scripted part? Or as an opportunity for exchange between people?

Is the audience of your cheers or boos your fellow fan at the ball park? Is it the TV viewer at home? Or is your audience the President himself?

If it is the President himself, most citizens will never have another chance to express their opinions to him in person. It is not surprising that they take their one chance to communicate their views. Whether those views are favorable or unfavorable, there is no 'right or wrong' response, just a true or false one.

But to those who see the appearance as a ceremony in which the audience is to play a scripted part, people who boo are 'wrong' because the script for the ceremony called for them to play another role.

But maybe they just saw the interaction in another light.

Jon K,

That is a very good division and SF is far and away the worst team in it. That division could end up with 4 teams with winning records and SF the only losing team. Thats a potential 100 loss team. What would make you think thats a weak division? Ever see any of those teams play?

Jon K,

I believe they had the best record in baseball last year with the 2 winningest teams in the NL. 32 over .500 whereas the Yanks division was only like 5 over .500. That division is loaded with quality pitchers and SF has gotten worse from last year when they only won 71 games. So what am I missing that makes them a contender this year in a division in which every team has improved but them?

Diane,
There are many ways to communicate your views with class and character. We call them "elections".
Believe it or not people can communicate to their Government in other ways too, they can write their local congressional representative and go from there. People who boo in that forum are just being obnoxious and cowardly because they would never have the guts to do it in any other forum besides hiding behind a crowd.

I better throw some baseball on here or I'll get yelled at....

I heard that attendance records were broken on opening day. As we predicted, the fans would forget all about the craziness of PED's and so forth and come out to watch baseball.

Yanks are gonna win 96-100 games this year. Win the division series against Cleveland and the pennant against the Bosox. We will play the NY Mets in the WS - Subway Series Part II

Mark my words.

Jim A, You are right. Stand up, take off your hat, and place your right hand across your heart when you hear our National Anthem, or leave the country immediately.

Go get 'em, King Wang!

Mike, it would be hard to find a bigger Yankee fan than me. however, with Mussina in the rotation, questions in middle relief and set-up, an aging team, and a tougher division (though not by much), I just don't see 96-100 wins for this team. Now, if Joba was in the rotation and both Hughes and Kenedy had seasons (it's unreasonable to expect all three rookies to be lights out), with an addition or two to the pen, 96-100 games would not be out of the question.

I now I'm quibbling over just a few games, but 92-93 for this team is more realistic. That said, predictions are silly since so much will happen between now and September.

Booing Bush is not cowardly, he is the worst president in our history.

See, we told you to come to the game yesterday and waste your money! Boy are we stupid. Oh my goodness gracious! It is high, it is far, it is caught! Oops, my bad.

Nudge - 10 games behind is not exactly contending - and most people think losing Bonds is a big plus - I see the divison as weak compared to the AL but I guess that's not a fair comparison.

So, I guess I will concede that it is a little optomistic to expect SF to win more than last year.

Is this happening to anybody else - I get this message:

Forbidden

You don't have permission to access /sports/baseball/yankees/blog/2008/03/2008_predictions.html on this server.

Additionally, a 404 Not Found error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.

Apache/1.3.39 Server at weblogs.newsday.com Port 80

and yet - my comment is posted - I double posted before I realized this was happening.

Jon K,

Unless they lose 15 of their first 20 and are 10 out all season from that point on, a 10 game ending generally means you are competing for the greater part of the season. That may be the best division in baseball.

Jon K.,

I too have seen the dreaded 'Forbidden' screen, and a couple of others here have mentioned it. I too double-posted the first time it happened. Now I just ignore it, get back to the blog, and find my post waiting for me in spite of my state of forbidden-ness.

Just another way those whiz-bang Tribune Co. IT guys have of making life hard for us.

Jon K,
If you get the dreaded "forbidden" screen, just refresh your screen once or twice, it will come right back to where you left off and the post you wrote will appear on the blog.

Also, for those of us still fighting the security code thingy, there is an easier way to get your posts....well, posted than I originally listed (cut, refresh, paste, post etc).
Simply type in your post, but right before you intend type in the security code, refresh your screen, if someone else has used your code a new one will appear and your post will still be there. Simply enter the new code (quickly so you don't have to do this again) and then click "post". It's much easier than the old way.

Jim A.,

We can agree to disagree, amiably I hope, on the whole booing question. I remain of the opinion that Americans can and should boo whomever they wish whenever they wish, even if it is Jeter at the Stadium or whoever happens to be POTUS on any given day.

But that's just me, and I know I am sometimes a bit too irreverent for some tastes... ;-)

But here's something I know we and most others here agree on -- Go 2008 Yanks! Get number 27!!

Diane,
Of course we can disagree on the issue, that's what freedom is all about.
Even if I don't agree with something you say, I'll always respect your opinion and I'll always think about it.

We certainly agree on our Yanks and the hopes for a championship quest beginning tonight! Halladay is tough, but let's hope Wang can keep our guys in the game long enough to get to the bullpen.