Sounds like Johan Santana is on the trading block. The Twins recently offered him a four-year, $80-million contract extension that would have extended through 2012. He turned it down, and they are now looking at trading him.
If you were Yankees GM Brian Cashman, what would you give up to get Santana in pinstripes? Just about anything? The guy is a 28-year-old lefthander who has already won two Cy Young Awards, has posted a season ERA above 3.10 just once in the last five years and has made at least 33 starts each of the last four seasons (since becoming a full-time starter). What would you give up to get him?
Comments (132)
First of all I would want to know the specifics of how he was different this last season from other previous seasons, and to get an idea of the reason(s) for any change.
Anybody know?
I would be willing to give up Kennedy, Melky and one Double A and single A pitcher plus he must sign a long term contract. There would be no Cano or any positional players thought to be future full timers. If this was not enough than I would pursue Kazmir or Bedard with a slightly different Package depending on the pitcher or team. Why Kennedy, he's quality and will be a very capable pitcher probably 150 win guy, eventually. Melky a very serviceable OF who has shown his ability and mettle to perform on the big stage. Double A and Single A their too far away to predict at this point plus could be replaced in the very near future.
If this does not do it I would be happy to watch Kennedy develope with the trade of Mussina to the Pirates or Phillies. We would have to pick up some of Mike's salary with Pittsburg.
Baltimore and Tampa may go for a similar package but less value.
No way give up Joba or hughes.
I thought this thread was about Rafael Santana!
Diane, Santana basically didn't finish very strongly. His ERA was 2.88 after eight shutout innings against the Rangers Aug. 19th. But in four of his final seven games, he allowed four runs, and in one game he allowed six runs. Prior to Aug. 19th, he had given up four earned runs four times in the season and six earned runs once. If you're looking at his win-loss record, a big reason it was worse is the lack of run support. The Twins ranked third-to-last in the American League in runs scored, and Santana averaged more than two runs fewer per game of run support than the Yankees' Chien-Ming Wang. His ERA still ranked seventh in the AL, and he was second in the league in strikeouts and sixth in innings pitched. That's in a "down" year.
Hope that helps.
He's won two Cys and he's the best pitcher in baseball, but he's also thrown 900+ innings over the last four years -- not to mention that you will have to pay him 25 million dollars a year to extend him. So not only will you have to START with Hughes to get him (and throw in Melky and at least one other big-time prospect), but you have to then turn around and give him a five-year, 125-million-dollar contract.
I would do Kennedy/Melky/prospect (though I wouldn't want the prospect to be Austin Jackson)/second prospect (a B-level guy), but I wouldn't touch Hughes/Joba.
Hopefully the Padres can't re-sign Peavy and he hits free agency. That would give the Yankees a change at the two best pitchers in baseball.
Thank you, Kat, now I can actually think about the question!
Kennedy and Melky plus a prospect will not get Santana. The Twins can get a far better package from the Sox or elsewhere.
For the Yankees to get it done I suspect it would take Hughes, Cano and Tabata. Perhaps Kennedy and Horne or Marquez could be substituted but I doubt the Twins would go for it. They want a quality package and for Santana they should get it.
High price, but probably the greatest pitcher of the day.
Would I pay it? I dont think so. But if the Sox send 3 top prospects it would not be fun for us.
Okay, I give him a pass on the win-loss part because he'll get better run support with the Yankees, and I ask they're up for a negotiating window so I'll be able to sign him up for an extension. If the answer is no, I drop out.
On his giving up an unusual number of hits in the last six weeks of the season I do a great deal of due diligence finding out -- from scouts who watched him, video of him pitching during that period, and buddies of buddies -- just what was different. Was he tired, was he injured, was he depressed, were his mechanics screwed up, did he have a sick child, is it his age, what? I don't proceed until I think I have reached an explanation that has a high probability of being adequate and true. I would go no further unless it's something very fixable. If not, I drop out.
If I'm satisfied that it's fixable I offer Hughes, Melky, one of the second-tier young arms, and a position player from the minors.
I would not include Cano in any deal for Santana, I'd rather go with more players from the system, those who haven't proven they can play in the majors yet, but Minnesota will get serious offers from other teams like the Mets who will probably clean out their farm and may even include Reyes.
I wouldn't mind it if the Yanks could get away with giving up Hughes, Melky and one other prospect but beyond that, I'd back off.
***Disclaimer****
It's been said before and I'll say it again before "Roy" jumps in:
Any deal involving Santana would have to include a negotiated contract extension. If no extension could be agreed upon before the season, I would give up nothing more than a couple of AA prospects.
Okay, I give him a pass on the win-loss thing because he'll get better run support with the Yankees, and I ask whether they're willing to grant a window for negotiation of an extension. If not, I drop out.
On the sharp increase in runs allowed during the last six weeks of the season, I do very careful due diligence with scouts who watched him, video of his performances, buddies of buddies, etc., to determine the cause. Was he tired, was he injured, was he depressed, were his mechanics screwed up, did he have a sick child, etc.? I don't quit until I have an explanation that seems adequate and true. If it's not something fixable, I drop out.
If it's something very fixable, I offer Hughes, Melky, a second tier pitcher, and a minor league position player conditional on his signing an acceptable extension.
Sorry folks I wrote my answer up again because I didn't believe it had posted successfully.
Not only that but I failed to get my name on one of them, more apologies.
Good thing Thanksgiving comes just once a year...
If there is a trade to be made... he'll be going to the Dodgers.
They have more ready for prime time talent to deal and the Yankees would have to give up Joba and the Red Sox would have to give up both Ellsbury and Buchholz and I don't see either team doing that
I would give up Hughes and Melky and Tabata and 1-2 more prospects. I would not give up on Kennedy. I thought he showed more then Hughes last year and had better minor league numbers then hughes.
I'm with Jim A on this. I say Hughes, Melky (they need to replace Hunter) and a couple of lesser prospects along with the extension of contract. I might even go Hughes and Kennedy and Melky, but only because our pitchers are still "prospects" and Santana is a PROVEN stud. And, we would be getting back the stud pitcher to replace two question mark pitchers.
I don't think Santana is going to sign an extension with any team, whether he is traded or not.
Why would he do that?
In one year, he'll be free to sign with any team he wants and be the biggest prize of the free agent market with multiple teams bidding against each other to further drive up his value.
Signing an extension will potentially screw himself out of a lot of money and he won't have the freedom to choose his next destination.
Bank on it - Santana will be a free agent next offseason and the Yanks have more money to spend on him than any other team - especially with at least $50M coming off the books (Giambi, Abreu, potentially Pettitte, Farnsworth, and Moose).
Giving up a ton of young talent now for him a year early makes no sense.
I wait a year. While we are proving out our young pitchers, Santana is reaching free agency, and he is also showing whether his poor showing late this season was just a fluke or has become a downward trend. If we still want him, we pay a lot of money but we get him for a reasonable number of years and don't empty out the farm.
Viper/Marianne:
the problem with the Yanks waiting a year is that the Redsox and Mets wont wait and are willing to deal just to keep him away from us.
One question.....does Santana give The Yanks a WS title? I don't think he does alone , hence my reluctance to trade young talent for a player that may be had for money only...down the line. Now The Twins asking price may come down by mid season but I still believe in being cautious with the young talent.
Mike FL,
See above comment.
He's not going to sign an extension with anyone, so he'll still be a free agent in a year no matter where he ends up this season.
Secondly, like the Yanks with Hughes and Cano, the Red Sox would likely have to part with top young talent like Ellsbury/Pedroia and Bucholtz to pry Santana away from the Twins.
The Red Sox would be insane to give up that much young talent for him - which is why it's not likely to happen.
Mike FL,
I'll take the risk that one of them will pay through the nose to rent him for a year.
Viper
Santana,up until this year was willing to give Minny a discount so I'm not sure he's a money first type.
He's made it clear he wants to be on a team that wants to win and has a front office that isn't willing to just give up on a season and trade away players for almost nothing like MIN did last year.
Although I agree with you that he'd be financially stupid to not explore the free agent market he may be more comfortable just taking the extension and not having to risk his arm/skills/"Stuff" declining for whatever reason or another...
Not to mention the "extension" I'm sure if it were the Yanks/Sox/Mets would not exactly be chump change either.
For this reason like most on the blog I'd be willing to gamble Kennedy or Hughes/Melky and another nice piece (positional player not currently on the big club).
PS. Diane Happy Thanksgiving!!
PTRS,
Santana's willingness to sign with the Twins for less money is apples and oranges compared to other clubs because MIN has been his home for years and the place he became the best pitcher in the game. That doesn't mean he'll take less money to play in another town.
Secondly, ballplayers of Santana's caliber and success don't lack confidence by any means and won't view not signing an extension as a "risk."
Quite the contrary, he'll see it as motivation like A-Rod did this past season and a huge opportunity to drive up his value even further by having another Cy Young like season in 2008.
Nothing. Pass.
Michael, Happy Thanksgiving. Glad to see you.
Realist brings out a very good question. Does Santana give us the WS ring. If we make the playoffs. I'd say "yes". But do we make the playoffs with Pettittee, Wang, Chamberlin, Hughes or Kennedy and Santana. It will be close because of the possible wins from the big three of Pettittee, Wang and Santana = 50+; Chamberlin and or Hughes or Kennedy = 25. Its still a crap shoot with middle relief picking up at least 20 more. This is asking alot. The kids have to be 25+ which is alot to ask for.
So, do we gamble and throw away plenty of young talent for Santana when we may not have the horses to pitch with him especially if Pettittee does not come back.
We cannot let Johan go to Boston. A 1-2 punch of Beckett and Johan would be deadly.
1) Wang - The twins will need a cheap # 1 starter to replace Santana. Plus he proved to us that he is worthless to us in the playoffs. why not get rid of him?
2) Melky - They need a CF to replace Hunter
3) Karstens, Clippard, Wright, etc. - Any number of lesser prospects that it takes to get the job done. If it takes all three, then so be it.
I would try to keep hughes, chamberlain and kennedy.
Interesting findings......
I just hit all the team MLB sites for the teams that made the playoffs this past year.
Each team that made it, proudly displays a log of some sort on their front page that states their claim to a title for the year: Philly: NL East Champs, Angels: AL West Champs and so on and so fourth.
Colorado has the NL League Champs display. Would they have showcased their Wildcard holding if they had only won that this year?
Interestingly, the Yankees front page has no mention of their team winning the wild card? Why? Was it because no one seemed to want it and the Yankees got it really by default?
I hope they get use to it. Becasue that's the only way they're going to get into the playoffs the next several years. What with the BEST team in baseball and your 2007 World Series Champs in their division. The Sox have set themselves up for several AL East Championships to come in the next few years to come (and sevearl more WS Championships).
Starnge that the Yankees have not emebraced their new title. One, that if they are lucky enough, and everybody else is worse then them....will be AL wildcard for the next few years to come!
Behold the "New Order", the next dynasty in pro sports behind the Patriots: The Boston Red Sox........with the Celtics starting their own this year too!
Boston Mass: the BEST sports town in America....and don't you forget it!!!!!!!
When your franchise has won 26 , yes 26 , World Series Championships being a wildcard doesn't cut it. I am sure it might be considered as an accomplishment for some but
not for The New York Yankees. I am sure that even someone with nothing better to do , as yourself , would conceede had they not had such bad fortune early in the season...things possibly would have been different? You know , the sweep by The Sox when The Yanks were forced to run out AA pitchers....but I digress and it matters not.
Enjoy what is happening for your teams now , oh bold one who hides behind the guise of anonymity , as they are fleeting. Much like the satisfaction you must use to fulfill what is lacking in your own life , by living vicariously(sp?) through your teams , trying to make yourself bigger than their respective sports.
You know what? I'd give up Joba, Melky and Juan Miranda and nothing else.
Joba carries a lot of weight and best case scenario, Joba becomes another Santana. So why not bypass the arm worries and get the current day Joba?
Melky has to be included in any deal because Hunter left.
Juan Miranda has a lot of hype but first basemen are the easiest of positions to fill, it seems like we had 9 of them last year.
I seriously doubt that the Twins would start with Kennedy when Boston can start with Bucholz and the Dodgers can start with Kershaw.
Joba is hotter than both of those guys and if we include him, we don't have to give up Tabata, Hughes or Kennedy.
(Sully reads MLB Websites Wanderer's posting and slaps his head)
Thanks for making my life easier buddy
Sully,
You are not responsible for the transgressions of others as we Yankee fans are not for those who do the like.
Btw, my Father played High School ball against The Yaz and I have always respected him. I am sure many don't realise that he was from Bridgehampton New York. Fred Lynn was a close second followed by Rice....that is as far as RedSox go ;-)
I know this is a non sequitor and we are supposed to just stick to baseball...
But I rewatched Close Encounters this weekend.
God D-mn that film is still great!
OK, as we were
Sully,
Close Encounters far surpassed StarWaes and the like , imho. Dreyfussuch(sp?) was awesome in that! It's funny how it got lost in all the hype surrounding StarWars. I felt CE and "Logan's Run" were far superior :-)
Wow! My new laptop has me adding ssssssssss and all kinds of other mistakes. Figures that I have to catch up to technology yet once again;-)
I would give up Hughes and Melky and Tabata and 1-2 more prospects. I would not give up on Kennedy. I thought he showed more then Hughes last year and had better minor league numbers then hughes.
++++
How exactly can you say that Kennedy had "better" numbers than Hughes? They were there at different times at different levels (save a brief rehab stint in AAA for Hughes) and Hughes has more IP. They both dominated -- period. Kennedy had a slightly lower overall ERA, but Hughes was more of a strikeout pitcher. In 275 minor-league innings, Hughes only gave up 171 (!) hits; he only walked 66 batters and struck out 311. His WHIP -- for his minor-league career -- was 0.86.
Hughes flat-out embarrassed minor-league hitters.
Anyway, it's shocking to read the short-sightedness of people when they casually say "Yeah, I'll give up Hughes..." There's this sense of "disappointment" about his season. Seemingly people can't see comprehend the fact that he was a 21-year-old rookie dipping his toes into the majors for the first time. People seem to forget he's the only Yankee pitcher to have a post-season victory in '07 -- coming into a game when an old man broke down on the mound.
Hughes in on another level than Kennedy, and it's still to be determined who's better among Hughes and Joba. Don't assume what you saw in '07 is all Hughes had; he's a kid that should have been in AAA.
Giving up Hughes would be a big, big mistake for this team. They should stick with their young pitchers. You consider giving up Kennedy because Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, but not Hughes or Joba. And definitely not Cano either. Melky, yes. Kennedy, yes, reluctantly. Yes on Tabata if you have to. But trust me -- trading Hughes (or Joba) would come back to haunt them.
thanks JJ!...
finally someone else has brought up the obvious solution - include wang in any santana scenario. he is a proven AL starter, so grouped with melky, high end AAA prospects and such he can make it happen.
wang has hit his ceiling, losing him is much safer than one of the kids.
Trading away Wang would be stupid too.
First off, why would the Twins want a sinkerballer to pitch half his games in a home ballpark that exploits his biggest weakness? That would be like the Rockies trading for Kei Igawa so he can pitch half his starts at Coors Field.
That hardly makes sense, does it? The Twins will not be interested in Wang.
It's amazing how many people dismiss what Wang has done for this team the last couple of years because he had a bad postseason. His poor showing in October doesn't mean he can't rebound next season if given the opportunity.
The Yanks have to play well enough in the regular season to have a shot at October glory and Wang is a big cog in that rotation because he averaged 6.2 IP per start and saved the pen a lot of wear and tear every fifth day.
Wang and Pettitte were the only Yankee starters they could depend on going 6-7 IP most every time out last season. In fact, I’ll take it a step further and point out that Yankee starters in 2007 went at least 7 IP just 43 times all season with Wang and Pettitte combining for 31 of them (Pettitte - 17, Wang - 14, everyone else - 12).
The Yanks need MORE starting pitchers and innings-eaters like Wang - not fewer, especially given the current state of the Yankee bullpen.
Compare the Yankee rotations the last few years to the dynasty years and you’ll see exactly why this team hasn’t had the same kind of success in the postseason - they lack the horses in the rotation.
Here’s how many times a Yankee starter has thrown at least 7 IP since 1996:
1996: 54
1997: 77
1998: 91
1999: 69
2000: 67
2001: 64
2002: 79
2003: 87
2004: 53
2005: 56
2006: 44
2007: 43
Let’s hope Pettitte returns and the Yanks keep the kids. Paying a king’s ransom for Santana a year away from free agency makes no sense at all.
If I were the Yankees, I wouldn't give up a thing for him (this year). I'll just wait until he becomes a free agent next year and then buy him.
As I've said before on several other threads, I do not trade for Santana if I'm GM. I buy him next year.
I'm in the Viper, Marianne, Realist, Whoa, Baileywalk, Eric camp.
And I love having Viper here to point out, repeatedly, why we should wait (why, in fact, we'll almost certainly have to wait.)
I know I may be mad, but I could care less if he went to the Mets or Dodgers. (which almost certainly be for a rental anyway.) Just keep him away from the Bosox. That WOULD be scary, as somebody has already pointed out. I just don't see the Sox being crazy enough to do that deal for what they'd be asked to give up.
Sully, you agree?
Anyway, as Viper says, Santana has a huge pot of gold waiting at the end of next year's rainbow and I think he's thinking like Dorothy - he'll find his own lucky star there; a bidding war unlike any we've seen for a pitcher up to now. Gee whiz, if Zito the Zilch got the money he got, what visions of riches must Santana have?
By the way, I'm glad to see you back Viper. Hopefully you'll also be around today on this thread, because nobody wants to help me out (or can't!) with this question that I've posed a couple of times already! But being persistant and really curious, do you (or anyone else) know if there's ever been a study conducted to determine how trades in which the principal players concerned involved a pitcher for a position player.
Two infamous position for pitcher trades in BB history are Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas and a couple of 'extras,' and Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio and extras. We know how THOSE deals turned out. I just have a sneaking suspicion that the majority of such trades have favored teams getting the position player in the deal (I'm talking deals involving high level, high promise players, not the many minor deals also made over the years.)
No way do I give up any of our young pitchers for Santana. Yankee track record with obtaining big name high priced starting pitching has been a disaster going back to their days of Don Gullet! You never know how many more dominant pitches they have left in their arms. We need a solid young staff that can give us innings for a longer # of years than having an ACE for who knows how long, & 2 or 3 sub par starters who will destroy our bullpen. I like our young guys who seem to know how to PITCH & some may turn out to be very good for a long time. We need to strengthen our bullpen & we'll be set, especially with Girardi at the helm.
I would prefer not to deal Joba or Cano. Otherwise, I think everything is negotiable assuming Santana signs a long-term extension. Even with Wang, potentially Pettitte and the young arms, the Yankees lack a #1 starter. There's potential for Joba or perhaps Hughes to be that guy, but not next year.
Can you imagine a 2008 rotation of:
Santana
Petitte
Wang
Joba
Mussina
And a long-term top 3 rotation of:
Santana
Joba
Wang
I am a fan of Hughes/Kennedy/Horne but if takes two of these guys and Cabrera to get Santana, I think you have to consider that.
Realist,
Go to Start, Control Panel, Keyboard and then change the Repeat properties. That might help.
I think it will be a good thing if Johan goes to the Mets and not to Boston, from the Yankees POV.
Remember the Frank Viola trade? It was not a good thing for the Mets. They gave up so much, Aguilera, Tapani, David West ...
I remember that day. My beautiful, sweet and late mother's name is Viola. On the back page of Newsday there was huge Second Coming type saying "Mets Get Viola!" What a headline!!!
My mother picked up the paper and said, "Wow, I've been waiting for this day my whole life!" It was pretty funny.
If Johan can be had. Get him. Maybe Horne will be as good as Ian? If you have to trade Cano, go ahead and take your best shot. Melky and Cano are not disciplined at the plate and we need a Knoblauch to the work the counts, steal, get on base, whatever.
I mentioned getting David Eckstein but Cashman, like Omar Minaya, does not like white players for some reason.
If we can get Armando Benitez or someone like Jeremy Sowers, why not? I mentioned Gregg. I mentioned Percival. Kazmir could be traded at some point. You put a healthy Sowers, or Johan or Kazmir on Boston and that would lock up the division.
And remember that Toronto has very good pitching too! Jesse L. will be a year older, AJ is one of the best and Marcum and McGowan are pretty good too. They all throw hard, but you can only tell so much on TV.
I cannot believe Joe Kennedy is dead. He was only 28. Tall and strong, nice looking and clean cut and now he's gone ... it's upsetting ...
Anyway, just my two cents ...
I have been in the Everglades (all the way to Flamingo which is incredible) and the Keys so I have not been able to study all of the posts. But it seems it will be a crazy off season.
Still don't know why the Yanks are spending like crazy with the bad economic news of gold, oil and the Euro. Are they foolish or can they weather the coming storm? I don't know. I just don't know.
A few more things ...
Johan Santana speaks Spanish which is good. He can fit in and be a real star with the Spanish language network. I would urge everyone to learn Spanish. It's part of America's future like it or not. A beautiful European language for sure!
Since he is from Venezuela ... if he is an anti-Communist, then through the NY mass media can be of help to expose Hugo Chavez and his anti-America machinations (allied with Iran, Russia/KGB/FSB, North Korea, ANC, Mugabe/Zimbabwe and so forth. Wanting global Communist revolution, Hammer and Sickle parades, oil threats, drug cartel connections and so forth.) Who knows, Johan may not want to get involved. There are few Ted Williams archetypes left. (Yes, we saved the head!)
What would I give up to land JS?
I would weigh what the Mets and Boston might give up, and if we could get Kazmir or some other lefty. Right now we have NO lefties, only Igawa, since Ted Lilly is persona non grata. (Beat up his coach, uncoachable, beanball maniac bla, bla, bla)
I would say any three of the following could be traded for him ...
Cano
Melky
Ian Kennedy or Horne
Smith
Tabata
Austin Jackson
Go to four players if you need to.
And set up an AMERICA based academy for American players while we are at it and find more talent. Go to prisons, go to inner cities, go to Florida, Arizona, Alaska league, Cape Cod. I can't believe we have a baseball school in the Caribbean, nothing against those kids cause I have lived there, but 16 year olds are children and should be in school, not in the U.S. minors. It's just so wrong. I think 18 should be the signing age. It's child abuse.
Plain and simple.
Like doing business with the Politburo in Beijing, shame on the Yanks for signing these kids and carting them off. I don't want to hear about the opportunity. There will be an opportunity two years down the road. Let kids be kids. No need to draft embryos. What is our deceny and traditional values? True Joe Nuxhall pitched for the Reds when he was 15 but that was in the darkest days of WWII and there were no players around. They were all fighting fascism.
Santana might not be available next year but...
He just turned down 4 yrs @ $20M so he'll be looking for at least $25M and maybe a 5 or 6 year extension. He's only 28 so he might get that. Clubs will need to offer Santana that much money in addition to offering the Twins some hefty talent.
Therefore the Yankees should offer him a 6 year extension @ $25M. If Santana knows he can get that much money and the Twins don't agree to the talent being offered by the Yankees, he may wait until next year if no other club offers him that kind of money. Tons of talent is needed to appease the Twins in addition to tons of money needed to appease Santana -- but there may not be that many teams out there willing to pay that much money while giving up tons of talent. Yankees need to dangle the $ carrot.
If anyone out there thinks the Yankees should not pursue Santana with all their resources is crazy. I would hope the Yankees would be willing to part with one of their young arms for him. If they asked for Hughes and Chamberlin I would have to say no. But if it was Hughes and Kennedy I would have to say yes to that trade. If we know our history of young pitchers more often than not they don't pan out. Remember Generation K for the Mets? Regarding Santana's poor second half..remember Clemens had a poor season the year before he came to the Blue Jays. Santana is a fastball changeup pitcher. They are not the type of pitchs that corresponds to high stress and injuries on a pitchers arm. Remember their are people out there who would find fault with anything..that's the nature of fans and newsreporters in general.
The Sox have Crisp...who the Twins, evidently, covet.. as a low cost replacement for Hunter. I suspect that any trade for Santana would be built around Crisp. Word is that it would take either Lester or Bucholz, not both, along with perhaps a Micheal Bowden and Jed Lowrie wrapped around Crisp as the centerpiece. Pedroia and Ellsbury are untouchable.
Santana's performance speaks for itself...but I seem to feel some hesitation in giving up that much talent for a guy who has pitched a ton of innings...AND is a power pitcher....is he worth all that talent, plus all that money, for such a long contract? I'm not sure. It appears that Cashman and Theo may engage in a game of "keep away" that could cost the "winner" more than Santana is worth
Just one mans opinion.
yanks61 said:
"I do not trade for Santana if I'm GM. I buy him next year.
I'm in the Viper, Marianne, Realist, Whoa, Baileywalk, Eric camp."
Folks from this camp, help me out. What is your Plan B?
Stand pat -- next year's rotation is made up of current pieces already in the system?
Shop elsewhere -- look for a front-of-the-rotation pitcher not named Santana that can be had for lesser pieces of ours?
What?
The question was posed - Do the Yankees win a WS next year with Santana? There is no way to tell, but let's not forget that a deal for him would be not only for next season but the future. He is 28 and can be the Yankees Ace for years to come. Prospects in the majors have become such a commodity that people forget that they are prospects.
Pitching wins - offesnse does not. This team had arguably the best offense in baseball and could not hack it in the post-season. Unpopular as it may seem - I would giv up Cano, Melky, Kennedy, and a good prospect (Bettances, McCutchen, White). I try and keep Horne because I have been reading that the Yanks are very high on him comparing his stuff to a less polished Joba with regard to his first two pitches - he could make for a very nice set-up man late next year.
Why Cano? Yes, I see him being a great hitter for years to come, but look no further than Boston to see why you give up a great 2B for a great pitcher. Do you think the Red Sox regret trading Hanley Ramirez who is probably the best offensive 2B in all of baseball now? I would guess no.
I havent posted in a while, but for those of you who remember, I love Kennedy, but he is a prospect. Great minor league numbers and 3 major league starts do not make a proven comodity. As for Melky, I still believe he is overated and the time to trade him is right now to get optimal value (see Kevin Maas, Ruben Rivera after their first seasons)
As for trading Wang - that defeats the purpose of getting Santana. Wang is a proven major league pitcher who has won 38 games the past 2 years. How many other pitchers in baseball can say that? People have seem to forgotten that after the abysmal erformance in the ALDS, but remember who won their only game in the 2006 playoffs and pitched very well. Oh yeah, that was Wang.
Losing Cano would hurt a lot and watching him blossom into a star would be tough, but this line-up can sustain his loss. Perhaps they can go out and add some speed at that position making for a more balanced line-up. Remember also that, if the Yanks get their Ace this offseason, they will go after a bat next year and 1B will be waiting for Texiera.
My main points are:
1. Pitching wins
2. Offense is easier to replace/obtain than good pitching
3. Prospects are just prospects until they prove themselves. None of the Big 3 has proven to be in the same universe as Santana.
4. How many Aces are their in baseball and how many have changed teams in the past 5 or 6 years. I count ONE and it has shifted the balance of power dramatically in the AL.
The deal I propose is very expensive, but to get someone like Santana - you have to give up a lot. As a Yankee fan, I would much rather watch Santana, Wang, Joba, and Hughes in pinstripes for the next 8 years than watching this team bash the ball around the park and then get shutdown by the Becketts Sabathias Verlanders and Sabathias of the world when it counts in October.
Casual O, nice to see you back, Sully has been holding the sane-bosox-fan fort all by himself. And a belated Happy Thanksgiving!
uh...Hanley Ramirez is a shortstop.
Why thank you Diane.
Same to you...hope you and the family are well.
I dont think Santana can be bought next season.....my guess is he will be under a 5 year contract with someone.....for oodles of ka-ching.
Yes, Cas, I missed you, too. I was the only soul on here who left a post about their holiday cooking!
SS - 2B - still a MI --- sorry for the mistake - point remains the same though
If Santana is interested in the big money, the Twins will have to deal with those teams that offer him those big bucks. The Twins may then take whatever they can get in lesser talent because they will lose Santana after next year no matter what. In other words if Santana focuses on the team offering him the big money, the Twins will be forced to deal with that team as well and take whatever talent they can get from them -- since Santana has now become a one-year rental for the Twins. So the best strategy is to offer Santana the big, big bucks and offer the Twins lesser talent (forcing the Twins hand).
LOL...Marianne...believe it or not I did not cook this T-Giving....well...only my semi-famous squash casserole. My two sons, one of my nieces, and two other young people (who all live together in this big farmhouse...which we have affectionately dubbed "the frat house") hosted T-Giving for my and my sister's family this year. They did a marvelous job....we ate off from their ping-pong table as it was the only thing they had that would hold all 13 people. The menu consisted of the usual fare...Turkey/oyster stuffing/gravy with twice baked garlic potatos, swiss bean casserole, rolls (sis made them), peas and pearl onions in a rich cream sauce, my squash casserole, cranberry jell with ground pecans...and tons of pies for dessert. It was a "slam-dunk"....AND...the wife and I got to take home doggie bags of great food...NO clean up!!!....I could get used to that
Many think Santana is not interested in getting as much money as he can and he may think he's not interested in the highest bid -- BUT when the money is on the table it becomes a different story. He turned down $20M a year for four years. He wants more money and he can get it. The Yankees can offer him $25M for six years -- and there's no way he's leaving an extra $150M on that table. Show Santana the real big bucks and force the Twins to accept lesser talent. That's the way to go.
you want to pay a 35 yr old pitcher 25mm/yr?....I would of thought you Yankee fans had learned your lesson.
Santana is 28. The contract will expire at age 35. I think he'll make it that far.
Make sure you can sign Rowand--no one wants 150 k's in CF from Andruw Jones. Deal Melky, Kennedy + AAA/AA package to get it done. I'd hang onto Tabata, Jackson, Hughes & Joba (of course), and Ohlendorf. Any of the other rookie tossers from last year should be made available. Tough to give up on Ian K. & Melky, but you gotta give to get.
Happy Thanksgiving & RIP Joe Kennedy.
Santana is not a flame-thrower and his best pitch is his change-up. Mosre importantly the guy knows how to pitch - he has that Pedro Martinez quality about him that indicates he will continue to have success even after his fastball begins to lose a few MPH.
Also remember that he got a late start as a starter and hasnt logged nearly as many innings as most 28 year old starters - that should give him an extra couple of years. 35 is not that old - it is few years removed from the typical "prime" years - 26 to 32
Well....that's the risk aint it? Will Santana be able to be as dominate for the next five years? He is a power pitcher, and is not likely to be anywhere near as effective, and certainly not as dominating if he develops arm trouble, or loses 5-8 mph off his gas for whatever reason. Was this past summer an aberration?...or a sign of a guy who may not be as sharp with his command as he was before? My point is, before I give up 2-3 "cant miss" prospects, AND commit $150mm, I'd want to be very very sure that this guy will be what he has been.
Only 4 years so far @ 200 plus innings. I would trust that arm until about age 37
LOL Cas, lucky you! 'Frat house' kids who spend Turkey Day feasting their families are something to give thanks for... :-)
Well Chris,
I respectfully disagree.....Santana is a flame-thrower...his stuff is typically mid 90's...and it is because of his 95-96 mph gas (which, by the way, is usually thrown with precise command/control on the black) that makes his change up effective. He is clearly a power pitcher, who has put a certain amount of wear and