I talked to a different scout today, this one an NL scout but one who sees all 30 teams. Here are a couple excerpts from what he had to say. What he said about Dan Haren surprised me a bit, but I did look at Haren's splits and his ERA jumped each month this year (granted it started really really low). Still, in September opponents batted .342 off him. Here's the scout's take:
On Johan Santana -- where would he rank for you among best pitchers?
"He's the highest guy on my list, on my chart, and (Josh) Beckett's second, and there's not much separation between the two."
Three high-end starters rumored to be on the trade market are Santana, the Athletics' Dan Haren and the Orioles' Erik Bedard. How would you rank the three?
"Obviously Santana would be No. 1, Bedard would be No. 2, and Haren would be No. 3. I thought Haren declined in the second half of the season with his delivery and his command."
So you're not as high on Haren?
"I think he's a middle-of-the-rotation starter. ... Santana's at the top of the list among pitchers, Bedard has the ability to ascend to the top of the list, I don't think Dan Haren does. I do not think Dan Haren is a No.1 starter. I think he hit his peak at the All-Star Break."
And also Torii Hunter, a longtime teammate of Johan Santana's in Minnesota, was on the Stephen A. Smith show on ESPN Radio. Here's what he had to say:
On playing for the Yankees, or Angels:
"I called the Yankees a couple times, and they were just kind of putting me on the back burner. They had other things to worry about. They really need pitching and were trying to figure out how they were getting pitching, so, I had to sit back on the backburner and wait, and I couldn't wait. I was still out there trying to look for different teams and letting them do what they wanted to do. Yeah, I wanted to play with the Yankees, but it just didn't work out. And the Angels came out of nowhere -- they swooped down with those wings and I met the Rally Monkey, so we're friends now."
On Johan Santana pitching for the Yankees or Red Sox:
"I never heard him say anything Boston . You know, I never heard that he wanted to play in Boston , but, you know, David Ortiz is over there. We all came up together, and he and David Ortiz, they act the fool in the clubhouse. They're funny, man. They crack jokes, they love each other, so, it could be true. It could be possible that he could end up in Boston , but at the same time, I heard him say something about New York a couple times. He would love to play in New York . But maybe he didn't know that Boston really had interest in him. You never know. I think the cast coast area is where he really wants to go, but you never know, those Angels might swoop up again."
Comments (110)
There's no comparison between Santana and Haren. It's like comparing Beckett and Wang. If the Yankees get stuck with Haren and the Sox get Santana, we can forget about the world series for the next five years.
EJ Fagan will be posting his as well as the combined Pending Pinstripes crew's top 30 prospect list this weekend. It won't have the full write-ups, but it'll be good to see. He also plans to write-up #26 this weekend.
Nice work, Kat.
I'm about ready for that fan club.
MinorLeaugeBaseball.com has compiled it's top 50 prospect list.
I would post the list but I have to agree with Diane about lengthy posts. Not all , just a ton today and I don't want to add to it :-)
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/news/top50/y2008/
I posted it on the other thread but it is becoming a Yankee/Sox p#ssing match ;-)
No one is saying Haren is as good as Santana -- he's not. It's about what you have to give up. Is it better to keep Hughes and get Haren than give up Hughes and get Santana? That's the question. The Yankees might be able to get Haren without giving up Hughes. But to get Santana, it seems like Hughes will have to be part of the deal. Haren is also under contract for three more years (and a mere pittance in the Yankee universe). Santana will demand 130+ million for many years. So you have to consider more than who's better.
Bedard might have better stuff than Haren -- maybe -- but Haren is a horse; he's thrown 200+ innings for three straight years; Bedard has never thrown 200 innings. Bedard is also always hurt and has had multiple surgeries. Bedard only has one really good year on his resume. I would list Haren above him because he's been much more consistent and dependable.
I think a trade of Kennedy/Melky/minor leaguer for Haren leaves the Yankees in a better position than a trade of Hughes/Melky/minor leaguer(s) for Santana. The Yankees might not have a 1-starter, but you could make the case that they have four number 2s (five if Pettitte came back). I think a rotation of Haren, Wang, Hughes, Chamberlain, Moose (or Pettitte is he was back) could easily take this team to another title.
Thanks Realist for the link.
I'm assuming Hughes is no longer considered a prospect and that's why he doesn't appear.
Joba number five? Can there be four better prospects in baseball? (Me, a homer?)
IPK number 26 and A-Jax number 49...
Bailey,
Agreed, as long as someone else beats Santana, Beckett, Matsu, Schilling, etc.
3 Yanks are in the Top 50 ... Joba # 5, Kennedy # 26, Jackson # 49 ... they have Joba one spot ahead of Bucholz. Hughes isn't on the list b/c he doesn't have rookie eligibility anymore (which was the criteria)
Any team have more than three in the top 50?
Correct, Hughes is not a prospect. I posted the Yanks' top 10 under 25 years old yesterday per BA and Hughes is rated #1. Yes, AHEAD of Joba.
Comments by Ken Rosenthal and his recent column - Yanks' deep pockets set them apart
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7506206?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=49
The Yankees treat the luxury tax in the same brazen way that certain celebrities treat rehabilitation centers — as part of the price for maintaining a gaudy lifestyle.
They check in, check out and proceed just as before.
The Yankees' signings of Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada for a combined $372.4 million weren't outrageous simply because each of those players will be 33 or older in the first years of their contracts.
No, they were outrageous because the actual costs will be far greater if the Yankees remain over the luxury-tax threshold for the durations of the three players' contracts — and if the tax remains in effect after the current labor agreement expires in 2011 and throughout Rodriguez's entire 10-year deal.
This is the reason Why Baseball needs a salary cap by Stupid writer and Yankee hater named Ken Rosenthal. He's blaming Yankees for ruining baseball like this stupid column He wrote today. He didn't mentioned the Redsox at all because they do it the right way of course. Where's Double Standard? Yankees are mimicking Redsox says Rosenthal by by developing young talent with frightening efficiency? Are you kidding me? Is this joke? Yankees aren't copying Redsox. It's other way Around , f*cking nimrod... The Yankees had homegrown players than Redsox. The Redsox are bunch of mercenary n their team. The Yankees brought up Wang,Cano,Cabrera in 2005. Pedrioa was called up this year. Who won The World Series this year ? Oh that's right Boston Redsox did, They beat lousy small market Colorado Rockies and Cleveland Indians.
Mr.Rosenthal never understand to be Ny Sports Fan like Myself. The Yankees are only team in NY that give me happiness and joy as Fan and they win... Others sports team in Ny like NY Jets and NY Knicks are obsolete joke. How many years since NY Knicks and NY Jets won a championship?. It's about nearly 80 years. Thanks to Larry "Lucifer" Lucchinno and Mr.John Henry took away happiness and joy as NY baseball fan when Redsox in 2004 .
The Bostons sports fan must be living in heaven right now because Pats are winning and undefeated, going to four super bowl title. The Celtics are back from dead and probably win their 17 nba title. Lastly, The Redsox just won their second world series title in last four years.
From reading The Article, Mr. Rosenthal it seems He doesn't want Yankees getting Santana and Let Redsox have him of course. They already have Beckett as their Ace and have better rotation than Yankees. They just won the world series
In that case Mr.Rosenthal , Redsox should let go Varitek in 2004 and don't offer him a contract. then.
If Posada leaves who will replaces him?
For crying out loud. Redsox gave Lugo a four year and Jd drew a five year deal.
Everyone blames the Yankees for driving free agent prices up, but imagine if they were the team to stand up to Boras and stop taking his sh#t.
The Media use The Yankees like a punching bag , hated and meanwhile Redsox gets the love fest. The Redsox have second highest payroll in baseball. How do Drays , Royals and their fans feel ?
The Yankees are big bad Yankees. How about the Redsox? The Redsox are now The Big Bad and New Bully on the block other than Yankees.
What year did Yankees won the World Series ? Did Yankees management waited patiently all this years without winning the World Series?.... Everyone hates Yankees, loves the Redsox so much.. It seems the Yankees are disrespected all these years from Media .. I think media scared of The Redsox, and doesn't have guts to kill them or either They're working with Redsox organization.. with Boston Mafia something. They love to criticize Yankees and kill them.
If you don't count Jeter and Posada, Rivera out of Yankees Payroll, What's the Yankees payroll will be? All these Players came out from Yankees Farm system, now Every Yankees haters complained how much they make. Against Redsox, The Media don't bring up their Payroll like Lugo, Lowell, Varitek, Jd Drew, Coco Crisp and Manny Ramirez.
Spoiled Arrogance are Redsox Fans and Bostons Fans.. The Redsox won in 2004, yet they still moaning and groaning that One championship is not enough... Enough with Redsox mentality that They're Underdogs. The Celtics won 16 championships and Pats won 3 supebowls , How would you feel as Jets and Knicks Fans like myself who never won a championships near fourty years. The Redsox are new Evil Empire thanks to Larry "Lucifer" Lucchinno. The Yankees have homegrown players than Redsox. Redsox are bunch of Mercanaries on their team. Don't tell Big Papi and Manny came up from Redsox Farm system. Also, Lugo, Jd Drew, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Crisp, Lowell [former Yankees farmhand]. I think Jason Varitek "aka Captain of Redsox" should not be captain instead of Trot Nixon which Redsox management decided not to resign.
The Red Sox are obsessed with the Yankees while Yankee fans are merely REACTING TO Red Sox fans. Who started with the anger and hatred and obsession? Who has more reason to envy the other team? Obviously the Red Sox have more reason to envy the Yankees and have been doing so for 100 years. So the Red Sox won in 2004 and are in the World Series. Big deal. It's not enough for the Yankees fans to envy and obsess over them more than Baltimore or Toronto or the Angels. The Red Sox started this relentless obsession while the Yankees are defending themselves. After all, when someone despises you and tries to hurt you and is obsessed with pulling you down, just because you're better than they are, it's natural to defend yourself and react with anger. And that's exactly what's happening between the Yankees and Red Sox. But the Red Sox started this 100 years ago and haven't let up since.
Competitive balance IS good for baseball.
There was competitive balance before 1997, just like there is competitive balance after 1997. Just look at the facts:
World Series Champions, 1987 - 1997
1987 - Minnesota
1988 - Los Angeles
1989 - Oakland
1990 - Cincinnati
1991 - Minnesota
1992 - Toronto
1993 - Toronto
1995 - Atlanta
1996 - New York Yankees
1997 - Florida
Is that not competitive enough? Oakland, Florida, Minnesota, Cincinnati? These are the current welfare queens of baseball, raking in tens of millions in free cash every single season, which makes losing in 2007 as profitable as winning a World Series a decade earlier. If you're an owner simply looking to line your pockets that's the ultimate win-win situation.
AL East Spend: Internally Developed vs. Acquired Players
http://www.dugoutcentral.com/blog/?p=564
Thanks to Mike Pagliarulo for Breaking down The Al East teams
Here’s a (rough, unscientific) look at how much money teams in the AL East are spending on players developed internally versus players acquired via trade/free agency. Not sure how much this comparison tells us, but it’s interesting that the Red Sox have a much higher spend % on acquired players than the other teams. Updated 11/21/07.
In that case , Redsox should let go Varitek in 2004 and don't offer him a contract..
If Posada leaves who will replaces him?
For crying out loud. Redsox gave Lugo a four year and Jd drew a five year deal.
Everyone blames the Yankees for driving free agent prices up, but imagine if they were the team to stand up to Boras and stop taking his sh#t.
Enough with the Payroll
Okay, fine. The Indians beat the Yankees, and they have a much smaller payroll. So what? Payroll has never guaranteed anything, it just helps ensure more talent. The most talented teams often dont win the world series.
Spending more doesn't guarantee anything in any business. You can spend the most on advertising, but that doesnt mean your product will outsell a competitor. And you know what? You wont see the company that spent less on advertising wont gloat or mention the difference in spending if they made more of a profit.
When the Yankees won it all in 98, were you all praising them for having the 2nd highest payroll?
The Indians beating the Yankees isnt impressive because of the dispairity in payroll. Its impressive because they are young and less expierenced, and the Yankees have so many great players. Its impressive because the Yankees have the best player in the game, and hall of famers all over the roster.
I dont get why fans are using payroll as something to rub in the face of Yankee fans. Do you really think it bothers the Yankee fans that their owner invested more money in their team? All they care about right now is the fact that their season is over. They arent thinking about how many millions were spent. And it wasnt even a failure. They drew 4 million fans, made the playoffs, won 90+ games...24 teams WISH they had a season as bad as the Yankees. Are the White Sox happy they only spent 108 mil? Are the Rangers happy with how much they spent?
Im guessing if youre bringing it up, you probably think baseball needs a salary cap. But doesnt this season prove it doesnt? Or make for a difficult argument? D Backs 52 mil, Rockies 54, Tribe, 61 mil. Brewers made a heck of a run, 70 mil. Mets, Dodgers, White Sox, M's, Tigers, O's, Giants, Cards..all over 90 mil, and didnt make the playoffs.
SO be happy they lost. But to bring up payroll? Thats just silly. They play within the rules, so it isnt unfair. It might be time to change the rule, but the Yankees arent cheating. And they are in the playoffs every year, how many teams can claim that? How many fans have seen their favorite players have to move on becaues the team couldnt afford it? Look at how many home grown players they kept for 10 or more years. Jeter, Mo, Posada, Bernie. We all wish our teams did that with their best home grown talent.
I have beef with the Yankees about payroll too..because they overpay their own players, and that drives up salaries for everyone else. But t hats not their problem, thats MLBs problem. You dont like the structure, thats fine. Neither do i. But thats baseballs fault, not the Yankees. Glad they lost? Ok, enjoy the fact that a team with 4 Hall of Famers just fell. Take it to mean anythings possible. But to focus on the money that team spent? Thats dumb, sorry, it just is.
Jeter's contract was so large b/c of Tom Hicks
Yankees offered Bernie his contract in response to what the Red Sox offered him.
Rivera got what guys like Robb Nen got, and so on.
The Yankees never set the market, they went along with it.
Salary Cap in Baseball.
As a Yankees Fan, I want Salary Cap in Baseball Once a for All just to shutup Yankees haters and Media. Every Media and The Yankees haters criticizing yankees for buying pennants and championships thru free agency. Yankees needs to prove doubters and Yankees haters wrong that They can win thru building thru farm system and salary cap in place.. Is it me that Media loves the Redsox more than Yankees because of "Underdog" role and lovable losers mentality until they won a championship in 2004? And Fact The Yankees are Evil and Redsox are good since Mr Larry Lucchinno aka Lucifer shouted "The Yankees are Evil Empire" around the World.... The Yankees haters can't stand NY and what Ny represent for because They're Jealous . City like Ny has everything to offer unlike other cities in Usa. How would Larry aka Lucifer feel a team like Jets and Knicks haven't won championship for fourty years while Celtics won 16 championships and Patriots won 3 ? Every Boston sports Fan still moaning and crying because They haven't won championship for years.
Please Mr.Selig, I want a Salary Cap in Baseball once a for all . I had enough of media critizing Yankees more than Redsox... "Everyone loves Redsox because they do it in right way. Like spending on Matsuzaka, Jd.Drew, Lugo. Eric Gagne... I bet Manny and Ortiz came thru Redsox farm system. Jason Varitek doesn't deserved The Captain since He never came up thru Boston Organization. He was traded from Mariners Organization along with Derek Lowe on Heathcliffe Slocumb trade.
Agreed, as long as someone else beats Santana, Beckett, Matsu, Schilling, etc.
-------------
Beckett v. Yankees 2007: 4.39 ERA.
Schilling v. Yankees 2007: 5.51 ERA.
Matsuzaka v. Yankees 2007: 6.12 ERA.
I think the Yankees can beat them on their own. And who says Santana will end up with the Sox if he doesn't end up with the Yankees? Sounds like the Sox don't want to give up their precious centerfielder, so the deal might die.
I'd put Haren, Wang, Hughes, Chamberlain, Mussina/Pettitte against Beckett, Schilling, Mats, Buchholz/Lester, Wakefield any day.
Marianne, yes a few teams due, the Rays, Reds, and Dodgers to name a few.
marianne ... no surprise but Tampa Bay has 5 on the top 50 list (2, 11, 12, 20, 32 ... impressive 4 guys in top 20), Reds have 4 on top 50 (1, 9, 34, 47). Dodgers and Rockies have 3 each.
Thanks, OYF, just wondering where we stood competitively.
I am impressed that The yanks have 3 as they are usually drafting on the back end of each round. Nice work!
Yankee Bri, great rundown. So TB and the Reds have more than NYY, LAD and Rox the same.
Hey Anonymous of 16:34...
That post wasn't long enough.
do us all a favor and post it 16 or 17 more times
Realist,
They've been drafting a lot of highly-rated picks that other teams pass on b/c of fears they'll be tough signs or will opt for college. They also have one of the better international scouting systems in the league.
Hey Sully ... all Anon's (or are they all one in the same???) have gone posting happy today ... I really have a headache trying to read these things .... I've banned them going forward. Anyone who won't attach a name to a post can't know what they're talking about anyway
If we can't get Santana don't trade any of these prospects for Haren. He had a good last year but what did he do before that. It's Santana or bust.
DC Yank,
I agree and credit them for their stance! Top to bottom The Yankees have a formidable, well oiled machine........now let's get number 27 already!
Not that that applies to those 3 picks, especially, but those are two ways they've managed to improve the quality of the system so quickly.
Just read an article by Heyman on SI.com that Twins want Hughes and will make the deal with Yanks if Hughes is the pitcher included, not Kennedy.
I say, make the deal. Love Hughes, but we need Santana.
Make the deal. Good luck Phil. Win 20 and beat the Bosox 2 times a year. We'll get ya back when the Twinkies can't afford to pay ya.
Since several of you missed this post from yesterday:
Baseball prospectus top Yankees under 25 #1 is Phil Hughes, AHEAD of Joba. The top 10:
1. Hughes (MLB)
2. Joba
3. Kennedy
4. Jackson
5. Tabata
6. Horne
7. Betances
8. Montero
9. Cabrera (MLB)
10. Brackman
And on top of that, why don't you read this article and buy the t-shirt...
http://riveraveblues.com/2007/11/29/save-hughes-save-joba-save-ipk-save-the-future/
These guys wrote some great stuff.
Hear! Hear!
Hip! Hip! Jorge!
Uh. . .
Does anyone know if the schedule's out? Do the Yanks play the Nats this year, by any chance?
What I meant was, when does the schedule come out? I saw the Mets' published yesterday. Doesn't the league publish them all at once?
Sully, LOL.
The Anemone is channeling Nostrodamus. Very spooky indeed! Had to go to the Thesaurus 1/2 dozen times on those long posts.
Some interesting doings in YankeeLand...
http://mvn.com/mlb-yankees/2007/11/30/yankees-close-to-deal-with-mark-loretta/
http://mvn.com/mlb-yankees/2007/11/30/cano-and-melky/
If we have to give up Hughes just so Boston doesn't get him, I think I would have to do it. Santana is just that good.
Ooops the 17:00 post was me.
Kat: I appreciate your efforts with the prospective of a scout on Santana, Haren and Bedard. It really puts the proper slant on the three pitchers. It looks that if the yankees want an improved rotation. We might as well look to Santana and or Bedard. So, the info provided by the NL Scout must be an opinion shared by others.
If its Hughes than it can't be Kennedy plus the remainder of the package in my eyes.
If Yanks sign Loretta, that would help make the Santana trade by including Betemit to fill their 3rd base/Shortstop problem. Might not need to include Gonzalez - although Twinkies historically like defensive whiz's in the infield.
This looks like it might be a done deal by Saturday.
Welcome to NY, Johan!!! (Andy, just one more year. Then you can become Mr.Mom)
Santana
Pettite
Wang
Joba
Kennedy
I like it. I like it
Is the lack of a salary cap the problem in baseball?
By EJ F of MVN
[quote]
http://mvn.com/thelastpage/2007/11/30/is-the-lack-of-a-salary-cap-the-problem-in-baseball/
I constantly hear people clamoring for a salary cap in Major League Baseball. Fans have an image of a broken league where money rules all and the little guys just can’t win. However, the empirical evidence clearly states otherwise: that Major League Baseball is as competitive now as ever.
There are two (logically flawed) reasons that I’ve heard fans use to justify a salary cap:
1. High Salaries encourage high ticket and concession prices
2. A salary cap would alleviate competitive balance issues in baseball
Would a salary cap make it cheaper for me to go to the Stadium?
Baseball games are ridiculously expensive. It can cost a family of four close to four hundred dollars for an afternoon in good seats at Yankee Stadium. A salary cap would lower payroll expenses for MLB teams, so wouldn’t this mean they wouldn’t have to charge so much to compensate?
Unfortunately, that’s now how a business works. The Yankees will maximize revenue by charging the as much as people will pay for tickets – just like any other product. The high ticket prices in baseball stem from a supply and demand problem. Baseball stadiums haven’t grown much in size in recent years – Yankee Stadium held 55,000 in 1980, and 55,000 today. A lot more people want to watch the Yankees than did in 1980. Supply stays the same, and Demand increases, causing price to increase.
I think that an important issue arises here: who does a salary cap hurt? We’ll talk about competitive balance in a second, but let’s look at this just in the context of money. Fans play the same. Owners, theoretically, collect the same. However, the players lose out. Any salary cap would necessarily mean less money going to the players, money which they deserve.
I’m going to go out on a limb here at state that MLB players are underpaid. That’s not a popular sentiment among baseball fans – pretty much everyone reading this article would play for the Yankees for free – but its reality. The players are the product. Tens of thousands are willing to pay huge sums to come out and watch them play every day. Millions will watch them on television, buy their merchandise, and do all the things fans pay to do. However, the owners have a favorable system in place to hold down salaries – the draft, entry level salary structure, and a favorable arbitration system. When players are at the height of their athletic careers, between the ages of 25 and 29 for most, the free market cannot determine their salary.
Revenues have risen much faster than salaries in recent years. Over the past two off-seasons, the gap has narrowed, but the free agent problem persists. Miguel Cabrera was worth much more to his team than the 7.4 million he was paid in 2007. Owners certainly deserve some money – they take investment risks, provide facilities, marketing, and branding, but I don’t think anyone can argue that they deserve a higher proportion than the status quo.
Luckily, the salary structure of baseball has a very beneficial side effect: It ensures a competitive league.
Would a salary cap solve a competitive balance problem in baseball?
I’m going to tackle this in two steps. First off, I’ll ask is there a competitive balance problem in baseball? Second, I’ll ask what would a salary cap do?
There is no competitive balance problem in baseball. None at all. Parity in baseball is so healthy that personally, I think that it’s ridiculous that it’s even a question. The best team in the MLB last year had a winning percentage of 59.3 %. The Boston Red Sox – owners of a 140+ million dollar payroll, couldn’t even win 60% of the time The worst team in baseball, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, managed a 40.7% winning percentage. What does that mean? I means that if I’m a fan of the worst team in baseball, I’ll still see my team win roughly 3 out of every 7 games.
Let’s compare this to the NFL – a salary capped leagues. In the NFL, the average winning percentage for a last place team was 27.3%. Two teams – the Oakland Raiders and Detroit Lions – weren’t able to crack 20%. The worst teams in Football win half as much as the worst teams in baseball. Five teams posted winning percentages over 75%. The NFL has some non-cap related issues here – namely the 16 game schedule, but it helps to put baseball in perspective. Imagine being an Oakland Raiders fan? Why even show up?
What about the playoffs? Since the Yankee dynasty was broken up in 2001, only five teams in the American League and four teams in the National League have failed to make the playoffs. Five years! Over 2/3 of baseball fans have had the opportunity to watch their team in October baseball in a very short period of time. I’m no expert on the NFL, but I’d wager that less than 2/3 of NFL teams in the past five years have made the post-season.
Winning in the playoffs? Since the Yankee dynasty ended, only three teams have managed to make two World Series – the Cardinals, Yankees and the Red Sox, and only the Red Sox were able to win. The Giants, Marlins, Yankees, Angels, Diamondbacks, Astros, Rockies, Red Sox, Cardinals, and White Sox are a diverse group. They come from large, medium, and small markets.
What would a salary cap do? Would a salary cap really make the Pirates competitive? No it wouldn’t. The only thing that would have made the Pirates competitive would have been intelligent management. Salary cap or not, poor organizations aren’t going to win ballgames. Teams that start Angel Berroa at shortstop for years, insist upon treating Mike Sweeney like a real hitter, or throw in Oliver Perez to a trade without the opposing GM asking for him are going to lose, and it’s their own fault. It sucks to be a fan watching your team waste away, but it has nothing to do with a salary cap. The Marlins are still going to maintain a pitifully low payroll compared to their competition whether their competition is spending 120 million or 95 million.
Eventually, smart people will replace stupid people in the Pirates organization, and stupid people will replace smart people in the Braves organization. It’s the nature cycle of baseball. We’re seeing one smart GM’s work with the Dodgers being dismantled by a stupid one, distributing talent throughout the league. We saw the Colorado Rockies build a team on scant resources into a World Series contender – one that should stick together for a few more years at least. We’re seeing the Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Devil Rays assemble potential powerhouses, using young and talented players combine with good scouting and good timing.
They are able to do so because baseball’s current economic structure allows them to do so. Player development is cheap – the salaries of two dozen scouts is often far less than the salary of one major league player. Returns on investment are high because young players are paid peanuts. Ryan Braun didn’t even make 380,000 dollars this year. Phil Hughes made less for the full season than Roger Clemens each start. Miguel Cabrera made half of what Scott Rolen makes. Clubs are able to control these players during the prime of their career – the average free agent doesn’t hit the market until he is 28 or 29 years old.
Free agency is a gambler’s market. Teams spend a lot of money on often uncertain investments. Mike Mussina was paid 19 million dollars in 2006 at the age of 37 because when he was 31, he was among the game’s top pitchers. Teams can spend a lot of money, but the reality of long term deals often means teams end up with dead weight on their roster – the Yankees have Jason Giambi, the Dodgers have Juan Pierre, the Athletics had Jason Kendall, and so on. Spending more money on free agents creates a system of diminishing returns – decreasing monetary advantage.
Money isn’t the problem. Management is. Baseball teams are getting smarter, which is highlighting the differences between the good managers and the bad managers. The Rockies learned their lesson. The Devil Rays are learning their lesson. The Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, and San Francisco Giants clearly are going the other way. But that’s an issue for another day. It has nothing to do with a salary cap. Can’t we stop being distracted by this issue and focus on baseball?
[/quote]
One point of statistics: the spread of winning percentages in baseball will be closer than in football because of a larger sample size (162 games vs. 16).
“Since the Yankee dynasty was broken up…” obscures the fact that like death and taxes, the Yankees making the playoffs is a certainty every year. In fact, none of the “other” three teams (O’s, J’s, Rays) in the AL East has made the playoffs since 1997. Anyone want to hazard a guess on that one? Sure, other teams in the AL have made the playoffs, because someone has to win the AL Central and the AL West. I find it intriguing that the teams that compete directly with the Yankees-Red Sox duopoly are on the outside.
When people really argue for a salary cap they’re really deep down complaining about the Yankees. The Yankees are a lot like Paris Hilton. A lot of money can cover a whole lot of stupid. A low-budget team can’t afford any mistakes and the nature of projecting baseball is a process fraught with mistakes. The issue of Pavano’s contract comes to mind. An in-retrospect-stupid signing like that would have crippled a lot of teams. The Yankees simply went out and signed Clemens to an outrageous contract to plug the gap. The Yankees can bring in reinforcements, eat contracts if necessary, and afford to have $13 million spare parts and fourth OF around every year. Other teams don’t have that option. Do you think the Royals didn’t notice that Angel Berroa is awful? What were their other options though? Another replacement-level (and replacement-level salaried) player? Berroa was a player who was a “maybe.” When you don’t have the pocket power to sign a sure thing, you have to bet on maybe’s. When it works, great. When it doesn’t, you look like a fool.
The current Johan Santana situation sums things up perfectly. Santana is worth $20M per year, and the Twins can’t pay him that. So, they either have to trade him or get nothing for him other than a few draft picks. Guess where he’s probably going and why? The Twins are forced into a move because they don’t have the same cash that the Yankees have. GMs should certainly be held responsible for the decisions they made when not under duress, but can the Twins really be held responsible for what ultimately is a stupid baseball decision (getting rid of one of the best pitchers in the game), but one that they have to do because of the system being stacked against them?
I’m sure that there would still be dynasties in a league with a salary cap. (Hi there, Patriots fans!) As you point out, there are two forces at work: money and brains. Equalize the money out, then it simply becomes a competition of brains. If a team honestly out-thought and out-worked the others for a period of years, I wouldn’t mind tipping my cap. But, if it’s just a matter of out-spending based on a structural advantage, well… no one likes a bully.
Competitive balance isn’t about everyone making the playoffs/winning a championship at roughly the same rate. It’s about the results on the field being linked more to an actual understanding of the sport than to the size of the team’s checkbook.
It’s really easy to say that the other folks should just be smarter with their money, hunt for bargains, and hope for a little luck when it’s the only option they really have. At the same time, your team doesn’t have to abide as much by those rules if they don’t really feel like it.
M from J,
Agreed -- love Hughes, need Santana.
About your rotation -- what's not to like?
Just one thing?
?????????????????????Andy?????????????????????
(or Hamlet, as Michael PTRS has re-christened him)
Mike From Jersey,
I thought the same! Wow , I am not alone in my own little "Yankee land'
Flawed reasoning in that entry, Anon.
"Santana is worth $20M per year, and the Twins can’t pay him that"
It should read "The Twins don't choose to pay him that".
They have by far the richest owner in baseball.
They get twenty million bucks charity from teams like ours every year.
The public is paying for their new stadium with tax dollars.
Wipe your tears, they're not poor. They're welfare cheats.
A very good point, NSH.
Pohlad can spend whatever he wants, but chooses to cheat his fans instead.
Pohald has a lot more money than Steinbrenner - but it's the Yankees who give him money because of the luxury tax.
Pathetic.
Pohlad is probably the worst owner in sports.
He had a good last year but what did he do before that.
----------
Looking up his numbers might tell you that. He's been good the last three years and he'll only be 27 in 2008 (plus he's signed till 2010 for practically nothing).
Hey Anonymous of 17:43
Anyway you can give us the Cliff Notes on that or are we expected to plow through Anna Karenina while at work?
Yankeeland is not small, my Realist friend, and you are not alone. There are many of us in here, HYD,Roy,Chip,NSH,Jim A,Diane, Marianne, Viper,Mike, etc.... and we have one thing in common:
WE LOVE OUR YANKEES!
Time to kick some Bosox butt!
Down with RS Nation!
Lets go Yankees!
(Sully the Seamonster, and that lady Cas Ob are okay once in a while too).
Man, remember all of those trade rumors swirling about the Mets and how the Mets wanted to hold onto Lastings Milledge?
And now they get a mediocre catcher out of it?
Should have pulled that trigger!
One reason I am not that tied down to making Jacoby Ellsbury untouchable.
He's a nice player, played great in the World Series, got a ring and will always have a place in Red Sox fans' heart.
But if he's what keeping Santana out of Red Socks, then have fun in Minnesota, ya!
See also Hughes, Phillip
Man I can't wait for the season to start!
It's not even DECEMBER!
Mike From Jersey,
I am glad you picked up on the "Betemint(sp?) factor" as well............
A man once said , great minds think alike...I hope that the " Betemint(sp?) factor" saes Cano in the aforementioned scenario.
Ellsbury is a good player and I can see why Bosox are hanging on to him. He is gonna be a spray to all fields type of hitter, who will hit in the .300's. Probably "Boggs-like". And a very good defensive player. You don't get many two-way players like that, so it is hard to give 'em up, especially when you have CoCoa Crispies in centerfield. This is the best CoCoa Pebbles will ever be, but Ellsbury may(will) be a future AllStar.
Stop tryin' to fake us out, Juan Epstein! Go get Haren already!
SAVES not SAES...........doh!
Sully, it's known as WITHDRAWAL.
And its two and a half months till Valentine's (better known among us fans as Pitchers and Catchers) Day.
I am suffering withdrawal big time
It doesn't help that I work for a sports show and we are constantly reading and working on sports stories... AND NONE OF THEM ARE BASEBALL!
Did anyone see the Teddy Bear on the cover of the NY Post?
I had to buy it even though it is US$ 1.66 or so in Florida. Petrol costs!
What a cover!
Anyway ... they on the back cover that Johan may go to the Red Sox. That would not be good but it could weaken them too. All the possibilties for the trade gave me a headache.
Fox Sports ran a story I posted saying the Yanks were offering Troy Percival many millions for a deal to be the 8th inning guy. I had thought we should get him. Why? I saw him with St. Louis and he was ok. He's a real pro. Sometimes it takes two years to come back from a big surgery. He is a tough guy. When he was on the Angels and healthy he was as good as Mo. He will have to suffer in Tampa now for US$ 10 million.
About Haren ... a middle of the rotation man? Well, I think he's better than that!
If Johan goes to Boston then we can try for Bedard or Scotty K. But will they deal within the division? Who can say? Angelos is not a friend of the Yankess. FOY
I would be happy holding on to Hughes, Ian and Joba. And Cano, why not? It is what it is.
I still think with the best payroll the Yanks should have the best team. And with the highest equity too. They should copy the few elite remaining U.S. entities and do what they do.
Microsoft
New England Patriots
82nd Airborne
You look at the Patriots and EVERY guy on that team is there for a reason. Brady, Klecko's son, the kickers, whom ever. You think they look for a certain racial or cultural or regional mix? No way. They just want the best of the best. And they have it. (Aside from the cheating which is not cool!)
The Yankees need the right players, not only the best players and not only the most marketable players to let's say Japan (Godzilla and Igawa). It hurts the team if the wrong decisions are made.
There's still something missing but they will sort it out.
I still think Toronto has better pitching than anyone, including Boston, just with the starters if you weigh all five. But maybe I am wrong. Probably most will disagree.
Halladay
Jesse
McGowan
AJ
The other M guy I can't think of. (Marcum!)
With BJ back they could surprise. Or just be mediocre.
Klecko's Son plays for the Colts.....MY team:-)
Hughes in the mix??????????????
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3135740
Yanks have just offered Hughes, who the Twins covet.
We better not gave to give up Kennedy or Horne as well.
just read ananymos post about ken rosenthal and the yankees salary. if you want to bash the yanks for salry that is fine, but can we at least include the red sox in te converstation? there payroll is pretty high too and it doesnt count te 50 million the gave to dcek just be fair about it.
also where the yanks payroll comes into play most often is in signing their own players. how can you critisize a team for spending on all their own players when they are supporting half the teams in MLB which by th eeay turned a mighty nce profit last season. The ritisism should be focused on teams that take the luury ta and revenue sharing and actually spend it on their own teams. The Marlins a couple of years ago got about 35 million in welfare and had a payroll of 14 million. How can anyone justify that team's eistance let alone whine when they dump salaries.
Sully and fellow Yankee fans,
Going back to Sully's post about the Milledge trade leads me to post something I posted as much as a year ago and probably again recently and that is that sometimes you have to gamble that a prospect's value may be as high as it is going to get so you have to have a little bit of a gambler mentality if you're a GM and make a tough decision. Last year I thought Melky may have hit his ceiling as far as trade value was concerned but he did nothing to lower it this past summer, and he probably raised it a bit by playing good defense. If he doesn't start playing better offense, it will probably go down. He also needs to stay awake more often during the games as his lapses caused some issues at times.
What I'm getting at is this, regarding the Santana proposed trade: It is probable that eithr Joba, Hughes or Kennedy has hit the ceiling as far as their trade value is concerned so Cashman has a very tough decision ahead of him as he has to decide who to let go of and who to keep. I don't envy his position one bit because if he screws this up, he's a goner.
Minaya could have had a good pitcher, probably even Santana had he decided to trade him in a package last year but he insisted the kid had the 5 tools and was a superstar in the making and he didn't know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em on this one. I still think he could have gotten more for Milledge than two mediocre players but that's what happens.
There, I joined the long post parade!
Great day on the blog by the way, lots of good discussions- great job HYD, Casual, Sully, Mike from Jersey, Diane, Marianne, Realist, Yankees Bri, DC Yank, Chip, Roy and my buddy Rick....well done my friends. I only wish we were at a bar w/ some frosty mugs in front of us.
Maybe a little off topic, but if Andy P. would clue us in it would make the Yanks decision on Santana a little different. If he commits to coming back maybe the Yanks can back off on Santana. And not have to give up the future stars. To give up so much and spend all that $$$$$$$$$$. Is a tough pill to swallow. They have to have some faith. But Andy is the key.
“Here’s how you gotta look at it, it’s simple, you put together a team to try to win a championship every offseason right?” Papelbon said. “OK, if you can do that, and obtain a guy that could help you do that, which you know he can help do that, you do it. Yes, you do have a lot of faith in these young kids, but whoever may be in the equation as a young kid, you don’t know what they’re gonna do at a big-league level. You don’t know if they’re capable of being on a championship club. You know that with Santana.”
Quote from Papelbon He is right Yo play for 3008 and wory anout 2023 when it come. I love Hughes but if that it what it takes then so be it. If Pettte comes back and the Yanks stregnthen their pen (HELLO CASHMAN!!!) and get a good defesive centerfielder (I rush Jackson if he isnt traded or bring up gardner until Camerons's suspension is finished) I have to make them the favorite in 2008.
Even without Hughes - that minor leahue pitching s strong I know there is an emotional attachment to him among Yankee fans, myself included, because he was the first real hope for the farm system, but emotions aside the only reason not to do the deal is moneu which the Yanks have plenty of.
Get ready for the fun - this deal is going down this week possibly as early as a leaked sory for the Sunday paper (Hank mau take after Faf and like to leak news for the Sunday sports section.
I wonder what it would take to get Huston Street from the A's?
A spring training deal of a healthy Sanchez/Shelly Duncan amd Gonzalz enough for him? I dont follow the west coast so much so I dont know if hat is fair - let me know. I try not to be a fan who puts up ridiculous proposals "couph couph mets fans couph couph
Mariano's replacement in 2 or 3 years down the rad and a great set-up am until then
Back to the pen -- the dynasty was built upon an unstopable bullpen
The pen has been pitifu; the past few yeas nad need fixing, This is where we need Cash to get creative
Steve,
I think the general feeling is that Pettitte is waiting to see what moves the Yanks make if he is going to come back. If he is going to depend on a rotation of himself, Wang and three kids I don't know if he will come back as he wants a legit chance at another ring. If the Yanks get Santana, that could convince him to come back.
But I do agree Steve, he needs to get off the pot!
No Chris, the dynasty was built upon rotation depth that no other teams could match.
It's much easier on your pen when the starters are eating 6-7 IP every night.
I wouldn't get too excited about the Yanks now being considered the front runners for Santana, just as I wasn't alarmed when up until two hours ago the Sox were considered the front runners. It's all about B.S.ing and posturing right now.
John will wear 57, I reckon!
Wasn't that Steve Howe's number...isn't it retired then? hahahaha
A Red Sox fan on another forum just made a very good point:
[quote]
AutomatedTeller:
How the game has changed.
Yankees are trying to make PRECISELY the type of trade they made to build the dynasty (how do you think they got Knoblauch and Justice?), exactly the type of trade the Sox made to get Beckett...
and they are getting ROASTED???
[/quote]
Actually a very good point.
PARTY AT THEO EPSTEIN'S HOUSE TONIGHT - Everyone is invited
It is going to be one heII of a party. They must be laughing their a. s ses off right now.
I am furious.
I just went to a Red Sox message board and they are celebrating
"hook line sinker"
I think I am going to get an ulcer.
You know something is not right when people are angry about acquiring the best pitcher in baseball.
Yankees just got screwed over by Boston. Yankees haven't learned a thing.
MISSION ACCOMPISHED IN BEANTOWN.
They made the Yankees get rid of Hughes and now they will be adding Haren( who is an ace who had better stats then Santana in 2007) to their pitching staff.
Beckett vs, Johan
Haren Wang
Matz Joba
Schilling Kennedy
Lester Mussina
WE STILL LOSE.
What happen if Redsox sign Hughes or trade for him five years from now. Remember Phil who used to be a Redsox Fan growing up?