On the Yankees beat

1. He has been one of the most amazing and productive hotters of all time. I have no problem with him passing Aaron.

2. If he stays healthy

3. No, no one making that much money will be "beloved"

Kat - good questions:

1. I don't have a problem with Bonds breaking the Aaron record because of roids. I think Bonds (and Mac before him) were on 'roids, but then again so too might many of the pitchers they faced so it doesn't make their accomplishments any less. My problem is Bonds is a jerk (though I would like to use stronger language). I would rather see the record go to someone with an appreciation for the sport's rich history than a ME first, ME second, ME always player.

2. Yes he will - easily

3. Depends where he's playing - if it's in NY then no, he will always be hated by about 75% of fans (more if the Yankees don't win titles in his time here) I don't think A-Rod will ever be "beloved" in the way DiMaggio or Puckett or even MacGwire were - but he'll be respected - more so because he did it clean.

The quickest way for A-OPT to become a "beloved figure", is to lead the Yanks to the "07" World Series. I believe A-OPT will be the all-time home run hitter, as long as he stays healthy. Not playing SS should help him stay healthy and lengthen his career. With all the "Bonds Haters" out there, A-OPT breaking Bond's home run record will be wildly celebrated, especially by MLB.

Roy,
THere is little doubt A-Rod will hit 800 HRs - crushing the roid freaks record. We just ned to make sure he does it in the new Yankee Stadium.

I respect bonds play , I think he has a chip on his shoulder , I think that there is AMO to give players like him a attitude or to fuel their ways of thought and action he witnessed the BS with Sosa and Mcguire two players whom he feels superior over. her witnessed the BS press coverage and decided that he too can challenge the Season total which he did. He can be very much an A$$ but so was Joe Dimaggio ,Ty Cobb, half of baseball before Jackie.

I think ALex can do it.

He will do it as a Yankee and if he does along with some WS titles it will Cement him with YANKEE GREATS. Moving him ahead of alot of current and former Yankee,s

Bomber,
Exactly right. Much as it would irk Jeter, if A-Rod leads the Yanks to few WS titles he (not Jeter) will go down as the greatest Yankee of his era. They are both looking to solidify their careers and probably aiming to be immortalized in Monument Park.

1. My feelings about Bonds are not affected by his passing Aaron's record. I will feel the same about him if he quits today and never passes that record.

2. AR, if he remains healthy, will surpass both. He takes very good care of himself, not only in terms of conditioning but in terms of not risking his body on 'dangerous' plays, so the odds are in favor of his remaining healthy.

3. That's two questions.
A. Yes, public reaction will be more favorable than to Bonds, partly because AR is reputedly clean of substance abuse, and partly because he is not a bitter, selfish personality.
B. Beloved, no. Admired, yes. AR has not been seen as a lovable personality anywhere he's played, but his great talent and very hard work do earn admiration and respect -- which should become even more general if/when he sets a new and perhaps much higher bar for coming generations to strive towards.

1. If there's any justice in the world, Bonds will be suspended indefinitely when he reaches 754.

2. Better A-Rod than Bonds, but there are so many homers hit today that it's the most boring play in the game.

3. A-Rod may never be beloved but, as far as we know, he's clean.

1. If there's any justice in the world, Bonds will be suspended indefinitely when he reaches 754.

2. Better A-Rod than Bonds, but there are so many homers hit today that it's the most boring play in the game.

3. A-Rod may never be beloved but, as far as we know, he's clean.

Jeter is going to have to graduate from the 2 hole. or that is going to haunt him

I believe AROD is the leading vote getter for the ALLSTAR game.That's never happened before.He's grown in popularity throughout the world.Also receives the most internet hits of all MLB players.Beloved ??

As far as 'solidifying their careers', Jeter is pretty much a lock to go into Monument Park. Rodriguez doesn't even have a Yankeeography, and won't get one unless and until he gets over the opt-out hump and is still with the team. Monument Park speculation isn't even worth it until after that.

that 13 jersey is a hot seller here in NYC especially for a odd number such as 13

NYY fans are notoriously prone to ignore the All-Star voting. Its figures largely represent opinions of other parts of the country, where people vote 25 times a day for their local hero and whoever has caught their eye in the national press.

A-Rod goes to strip club without wife and baby

Bonds calls Andy Van Slyke the "great white hope" cheats on his wife and takes steroids

Who would be more beloved?

What will A-Rod do in the future? Live well? Or not?

Will A-Rod pass Bonds?

Yes.

What should we think of Bonds vs. Aaron?

I think it is simple ... like Gayle Sayers, Aaron and his generation have class.

Today people are turning into animals, promoting all sorts sad things ... no one is perfect ... but you really can't compare.

Aaron was a grat man, a true idol. Bonds is something you scrape off the bottom of your shoe. Once you abandon your family, that's it, it's over.

Anthony - I would actually be more disturbed if Alex took his baby to the strip club with him.

The difference between the two (well the one I'm going to point out for this comment) is that Alex has respect for the game and respect for those who came before him. Bonds has none. There was a really great article about Bonds about three years ago that pointed out that his feelings about the game are more or less resentment because of how his father acted when he was playing (stepping out on the family, never being around) while Griffey grew up with a love for the game by his dad making sure he was always around it growing up. Bonds treats the game as a job and things the fans and media should thank him every time he steps up to the plate. He's also a bit of a bigot.

Over 50% divorce rate in this country.So fire and brimstone right Anthony ?

More sox hatered!

Two boys are playing hockey on the pond on Boston Common, when one is attacked by a vicious Rottweiler.

Thinking quickly, the other boy took his hockey stick and managed to wedge it down the dog's collar and twist, luckily breaking the dog's neck and stopping its attack.

A reporter who was strolling by sees the incident, and rushes over to interview the boy.

"Young Bruins Fan Saves friend from Vicious Animal..." he starts writing in his notebook.

"But, I'm not a Bruins Fan," the little hero replied.

"Sorry, since we're in Boston, I just assumed you were," said the reporter and starts again.

"Red Sox Fan Rescues Friend from Horrific attack..." he continued writing in his notebook.

"I'm not a Red Sox fan either!" The boy said.

"I assumed everyone in Boston was either for the Bruins or the Red Sox. So, what team do you root for?" the reporter asked.

"I'm a Yankees fan!" the child beamed. The reporter starts a new sheet in his notebook and writes:

"Little Bastard from New York Kills Beloved Family Pet."

Aarron era a CLASS ERA???? are you serious??

If you trash bonds,

You might as well trash the Game before 1947!!

Just erase the whole records book from 46 and below.

Ty COBB WAS THE NASTIEST PLAYER EVER!!!!!!!! and he is in the HOF

I guess Mcguire is scum too right anthony?

Hughes, Tabata, and Melky for Texeria.

If Yanks are out of it, trade Mariano and A-Rod for prospects.

It's time to reload for next season when we win #27!!!

Chip -

Your wrong!!! bonds have a great deal of respect of those who came before him that is fact. His issues with the general public is his defiance of players like Ruth who he had issues with or etc. basically gloves off he is one of those people who is sick and tired of the overhype of white players while black players in history was ignored for a long time, you have to remember he is the son of a ball player in a nasty era in american time. he witnessed the brutality Aarron recieved during his homerun quest , he witnessed the onslaught the press applied. Just like a child who see his family or people that look like him or her get beat up by cops and dogs will have a hate for cops.

What people is going to have to remember, is that Baseball has a Ugly history and some wounds to soem is not easy to forget.

BB,

If you feel that way then you are definitely rooting for the wrong team since the Yankees were the 2nd to last team to integrate. Choose what ever history you like I guess.

BOMBER

Bonds grew up as a "Valley Boy" w/ a silver spoon in his mouth.He had father/son issues as many of us have had.His father was never around and had a severe drinking problem which affected his behavior towards his family.It wasn't until Bobby Bonds went into rehab and became the Giants 1B coach that father and son healed the wounds of the past.
Bonds remind me of Ted Williams in many ways uneasy w/the media and suspicious of others.

Bronx Bomber,
Again your lack of knowledge amazes me. I will start with the fact that Bonds grew up estranged from his dad with his mom in a rich white area. Bonds was not in tune with the hardships that Aaron was receiving as he tried to brake the homerun record. Bonds stated and I quote from a interview last year in with Pedro Gomez on ESPN and i quote him " He didn't have an issue with Aaron ,that he only wanted to pass Ruth in the homerun record." When he expounded on his answer he stated that "Ruth was the symbol for white america. He said he hated Babe Ruth" Why Barry? I know your answer Bomber but its much deeper than that. What kind of racist B.S. is that? Respect for the game? If he had respect for the game a) he would of never did roids b)he would of retired like Palmerio, McGuire because of the disgrace he perputrated on the great game of baseball. Regarding the past did anyone of the player's in the past take drugs that enhanced their game? That's the difference, if Bond's was just an ignorant racist he still would be given respect for his records. That's a disgusting truth. But to say that he's some kind of moral compass for major league baseball's former racists policies is being stupid. Please get a clue!!

Nudge -

Trust me , my family caught hell rooting for the yankees I'm a 70's baby so all was done as I became a Fan , my commuity from my elders words was basically Dodger and Giants, as was most of NYC, Until Reggie the Yanks was scorned especailly after turning down Aarron.

Also to add I'm not a child of a player who played in the rough times so my view is different

Bronx Bomber,
Baseball before 47. What the heck do you know about baseball before that time period? Yes we know that it was not integrated. But how many teams were there? How many minor league levels were there? How about the travel and the wool uniforms that were worn by the players? Plus pitching was dominated by white players up until the 70's. So really again as you post something please let's think things through first. How about this for the final insult. How many more a bats did Aaron have over Ruth? Let's start the education of the BB with that question.

Josh Phelps cliamed off waivers by Pitt. Pirates

Ruth was the symbol for white america. He said he hated Babe Ruth" Why Barry? I know your answer Bomber but its much deeper than that. What kind of racist B.S. is that?

Is is as much racist as the fact that there was a NEGRO league because MLB did'nt want no part of negro's??

No Phil It's your lack of knowledge and history that makes you look suspect. MLB started in the late 1800's it was racist until 1947, it glamored it's white athletes and left many talented blacks rotting in secondary leagues. that is the Problem with some of you people yes I'm saying it you seem to think that blacks is to just easily forget what happened in history, so he was raised in a Rich White town ?? and ??? a white can be raised in a black town and have 100% racism towards black, half of the black panthers went to High end schools. I taken aback to the lack of your intelligence that you display the facts , you want blacks to be happy and be sambo to the history of the game it's AMERICA;s sport , Why should'nt he hate babe ruth do the research he was as racist as the rest of them.

Furthermore consider the word ALLEGED ALLEGATIONS regarding steroid use people are in jail due to this , but to apply conviction on specualtion.

Babe Ruth Drank Bootleg products .

Again study your history of the game , I will give you historical facts, Even after Jackie arrived he was getting cursed at , spat on , and other disrepectful acts.

Phil -

You asking a question with a question all i need is a drink and we can play a game.

Stay on the facts buddy we can do this all night.

As easy as you can accuse Bonds I can accuse you of being a racist.

Bonds ruth comments is taken out of content,

Stop going with reptilian part of your brain aka the Gut feeling you need to go with the logical part.

That ruth comment is aimed at the potrayal of the game for ruth and the dimissal towards Hank Aarron Pursuit of the record.

My mother and family was around since ruth times.

If he used drugs (bonds) and it's proven then he get no love from ne.

Phil:
Stop using talking points ,

You and Bomber have a decent argument

talk about the deficiant pitching that was in Babe time. the curve ball was hardly used the slider and there was no 100mph fastballs

Ted Williams may also have been 'ethnically challenged' in the eyes of MLB as his mother, by whom he was primarily raised in a poor neighborhood in San Diego, was Mexican. In his publicity materials she was said to have been of Basque heritage -- whether there were Basque forebears or this was another example of the sanitizing that PR departments of those days did, she was born in Tijuana and Spanish was her native language. Williams remained in touch with what he referred to as the Mexican side of his family at least into adulthood and had at least some Spanish.

Since we are going to bring up facts.

here is some ... while the MLB was not a HR feast in the 20's 30's etc the Negro League was many players hit many Homeruns as the negro league resembled MLB games of today more than MLB of the past done so. what was the reason for the huge HR difference between the leagues? was it the pitching? well for starter when negro league pitchers WAS FINALLY allowed in MLB they done pretty well even in adavnced age. in fact when the two leagues played many exibitions against each other The Negro Leagues won a fair share of games.

Have a nice day
Lets go yankees!

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2913104

Cards get Maroth from the Tiggers

Diane and trust me in no way was that surfacing especially in Boston , and too add on it is long rumored that the Babe Himself has African American heritage prompting many remarks from Cobb (N-word)

Bomber:

It wasn't that MLB was segregated, the entire country was - MLB was certainly not progressive but they were just a reflection of what was going on in the country at the time.

Yes, Ruth drank, cheated on his wife, probably did a lot of other things, and has been canonized as a "colorful character" Ty Cobb, a viscous racist, is celebrated as one of the game's greats and I can understand why Bonds would rather celebrate Mays, and Aaron than Ruth. My point about him being disrespectful of the past is that he is dismissive of Ruth's accomplishments. The man out homered TEAMS in an era of huge ball parks, dead balls, and no steroids. Bonds dismisses all of that because he didn't play against black or Latin players. At the same time professing that anyone who discounts what HE has done is a racist.

He denies flatly and with an air of superiority, that we know to be true (that he has used steroids) and charges some great racial conspiracy out to get him and prevent him from breaking Aaron's record - because I guess all of a sudden Henry Aaron is not an African American? He wonders aloud if McGwire would have faced the same - because I guess he missed Mac not getting elected to the Hall-of-Fame despite his obvious credentials. He uses racism as an excuse for his actions when truth be told the man has never faced a day of REAL racism - the kind that GREAT men like Aaron, Robinson, Clemente faced.

To Bonds, racism is a crutch he uses to explain why the world is out to get him and if I were African American or Latino I would be insulted at how he uses it as a shield to defend against his own misdeeds.

assume that Babe was 21 yrs old today...and played until he was 41...or 20 eyars....how many homers would he have in todays era?

Bonds deserve the HOF for his accomplishments....in spite of roids....he was one of many, and I believe that ballplayers have been taking "suppliments" since the game has been played as a ML sport.

That said, Bonds is an a-hole, who is likely one of the most racist people of his era. He can cry "racial" all he wants..but in fact, it is he who is racist.

Ruth played in the Hot Dog and saurkraut era.Would he have a personal trainer? Omnivore or carnivore? Alcoholic or not ? 52 ounce bat or 34 ounce bat ?

Observer -

1. Is he playing for Yankees and Red Sox?

2. If not, for whom?

Bomber,

I know ethnicity is often impossible to judge by surface appearance, and that would be even more true having only seen photographs. I have wondered for years about Ruth' possibly being multi-racial, just from his appearance in photographs, but it is so hard to ask something like that without its sounding like a very dubious kind of question. Do you mind my asking whether you have knowledge of any information that would indicate whether it might be true?

[Or anybody, really, doesn't have to be just Bomber.]

Ty Cobb, Babe, Williams are just a small dose of ballplayers who were larger than life and who were not very nice people by the standards that we set. All of them are revered for there accomplishments...and should be. This is why I believe that Rose should be allowed in the HOF...his accomplishments on the field, while playing the game, should be in Cooperstown...period. Same goes for Bonds...and now Sosa...and perhaps even McGuire.

Chip,

He played the majority of his career in NY, and was a great pitcher for Boston for a short time...so let's assume he played in NY today.

DIANE

No basis in fact.

Or,...turn it around.

Choose the best three power hitters of todays MLB....say Arod/Pujhols/Manny....and put them back in Ruth's era...with those parks, and those pitchers.....how would they fare?

Then Shoeless Joe Jackson belongs in the HOF.
The "Babe" was w/ Jack Dempsey the most revered figure in sports in the roaring 20's.He was also a man of the people spent alot of time doing charity work for underprivileged children.Never forgot his roots.So he had guargantuan appetites for food,sex.

Casual and Chip,

'Great' and 'nice' don't necessarily go together. HOF decisions should in my opinion be about the 'great' factor, not the 'nice' factor.

Same is true of the Nobel Prize, the Oscars, and the Poet Laureate. And, by the way, their winners are often not a bit nicer!

well, you have an argument about ol shoeless.....except for one thing....didn't he get banned for intentionally throwing a game?....it is definitively different than betting on games, no?

DIANE

or talented.

ruse,

There is that.

I think the evidence at the time to convict Shoeless Joe was trumped up and shoddy at best.I don't see the difference between throwing a game and gambling.Durocher got suspended for a yr allegedly betting on baseball.

“For last year’s words belong to last year’s language. And next year’s words await another voice… Let me disclose the gift reserved age.”—T.S. Elliot

THE REPORTS OF THE YANKEES DEMISE ARE GREATLY EXAGGERATED

Have you received the death notice? Did you attend the funeral? Did you send flowers or make a charitable donation? I hope so. Because in case you missed it, the 2007 Yankees died. The experts declared it. Time of death: late May.

The Yankees cannot resurrect the magic of 1978, WFAN’s Yankee correspondent Sweeny Murti wrote (“This is Not That 70's Show,” May 29, 2007). The New York Post’s Joel Sherman advised the Yankees to start investing in tomorrow (“Cut-Bloat Biz, 05/30/07). John Heyman of SI.Com titled his article on the first installment of the ‘07 Subway Series, “Dead Yankees Have Issues” (May 18, 2007). While an anonymous scout informed The New York Daily News’s Yankees beat reporter Mark Feinsand that the Yankees won’t “pull this out... This is not a good team,” and described Bobby Abreu as “a piece of garbage.” (“Scout Rips Yankees” June, 1, 2007).

The press corps even consulted a doctor to confirm the diagnosis. Dr. Rany Jazayerli calculates that the Yankees will finish 80-82: 20 games out of first place in the AL East and 9 games in back of the wild card winner. (Wild Card: Yankees Down, SI.COM, June 1, 2007) A prediction that has about as much scientific validity as Marx’s prognosis that capitalism would perish. The Good Doctor relies on the customary failure of teams which falter in April and May to qualify for the playoffs. Of course, his premise betrays an obvious fallacy. Few teams that have faltered in April and May in years past rival the 2007 Yankees in talent, payroll, recent accomplishment or have suffered a spate of debilitating, short-term injuries.

Now, baseball reporters, I concede, are a myopic and morbid lot to begin with. Each game demands a compelling story line. And what better than the sudden, unexpected death of the wealthy and powerful to furnish a climatic plot, wrenching pathos, and riveting drama? Still, a collective reprimand is in order. Before you publish an obituary, it is customary to wait for a corpse. But New York’s baseball scribes seemed eager to sign the Yankees’ death warrant with the body warm and a pulse still audible.

Well, if 20 games in June can illustrate any large truths about a team’s fate, it is as follows. The reports of the Yankees’ demise are greatly exaggerated.

To be sure, the body has not yet experienced a full recovery. Whether it will or not, only time will tell. For now, Yankee fans can take heart however, that the cancer is in remission.

BEWARE THE LESSONS OF HISTORY

Perhaps, it was only natural that the Yankees 14-game deficit last month would recall to many 1978. In fact, to illustrate how fickle the tabloids are, when the Yankees closed the division gap to 9.5 games on June 12th, The New York Daily News’s back-page read, “Spirit of 78.” God forbid! Beware the scribe’s comeback fantasy. It’s the death wish narrated in reverse.

In any case, the analogy to ‘78 is inapposite. The ‘78 Yankees were 14 games out of first-place on July 20th (and in an era without the wildcard, besides). Only the Baseball Gods’ intervention delivered them. Jehovah visited six plagues upon Boston. As the Red Sox lost Luis Tiant, Bill Lee, Jim Rice, Jerry Remy, Dwight Evans and Rick Burleson to injury. To embellish upon something Otto von Bismark once said, “God has a special providence for fools, drunks, the United State of America” and, it would seem, the New York Yankees.

As Americans celebrate the Spirit of ’76 every summer so should Yankee fans cherish the Revelation of ‘78. (I highly recommend reading Roger Kahn’s October Men to his end.) However, we shouldn’t confuse history with prophecy. That is, the Baseball Gods aren’t likely to stage the Resurrection twice in one century. Red Sox Nation would have to sustain injuries not only to its Reich’s Marshall Curt Von Schilling but to Jonathan Papelbon, Manny, Pedroia, Lugo, and J.D. Drew as well to portend a Second Coming. In other words, if the 2007 Yankees fall 14 games out of both the division lead and the wild-card race in late July, start praying.

BUT EMBRACE YESTERYEAR

Still, recollection of the recent past should have chastened those eager to draft death notices in May.

Just last year, the Minnesota Twins won the AL Central despite being 25-33 on June 7th, 11.5 games behind the first-place Detroit Tigers and 11 games behind the Chicago White Sox in the wild-card race. In fact, as late as August 7th , the Twins were 10.5 games behind the Tigers.

In fact, the ’07 Yankees-- with the MVP season Alex Rodriguez is having and their switch-hitting catcher Jorge Posada challenging for the batting title—bear an odd resemblance to the ’06 Twins led by Morneau and Mauer. Perhaps, Wang and Pettitte can’t match the dominance Santana and Liriano achieved in the second-half of the season. But the Yankees top four starters are every bit the equal of Santana, Liriano, Silva and Bonser. And for all the confident assertions that the Red Sox won’t collapse because their starting pitching is too good, ask yourself the following question. Are Beckett, Dice-K, Von Schilling, and Wakefield really better than the ‘06 Tigers rotation of Rogers, Verlander, Bonderman and Robertson that went 19-31 over the last seven weeks of 2006? Is the bullpen of Timlin, Okajima, and Papelbon stronger than the Tigers’ late-inning triumvirate of Rodney, Zumaya, and Jones was last year?

A few other recent precedents that should hearten Yankee fans:

• In 2005, the Yankees were 10-14 on April 31st and 39-38 on June 30th-- 5 games behind the Red Sox in the AL East. On June 30th, they also were in 5th place in the wild-card standings, 3.5 games behind the then wild-card leading Twins. The Yankees finished with 95 wins that year and won the AL East.

• In 2005, the Indians also happen to have had a wretched start in an AL Central race that the White Sox appeared to clinch in May. The Indians were 42-35 on June 30, 2005, 11 games behind the White Sox and as late as September 24, 2005, they closed that lead to 1.5 games. In fact, had the Indians not lost three straight games the last weekend of the season, they would have qualified for the Wild Card, not the loser of that final Red Sox-Yankees series.)

• On May 30, 2005, the Houston Astros were 19-32, in 12th place in the wild card standings, 10.5 games out of 1st. (On June 30th, they were 35-41 and in 9th place, 6.5 games out.) The ’05 Astros, of course, eventually won the wild-card and the NL pennant.

• On May 30, 2003, the Florida Marlins were 26-31 on May 31st, in 8th place in the wild-card standings, and 8.0 games behind the wild-card leader. On June 30, they were 42-42 and 5.5 games behind the wild-card leader. The ’03 Marlins, as we all remember too well, won the wild-card and went on to beat the Yankees in the World Series.

• Finally, in 1995, in the 144 game strike-shortened season, the Yankees were 26-31 on June 30th, 7 games behind the Red Sox in AL East. That lead increased to 16 games, incidentally, on August 28th. In fact, as late as August 31, 1995, the Yankees were in 7th place in the wild-card standings and 9.5 games behind the Angels, the team they overtook to make the playoffs for the first time in 14 years.

To be sure, no one should conclude from the history I list above that the Yankees necessarily will recover fully from their spring coma and qualify for the playoffs. Remember: history isn’t prophecy. However, the so-called baseball experts who wrote the Yankees off on Memorial Day should be ashamed of themselves. Many of them have covered baseball for decades. By now, they should know better: April and May do not a season make.

THE PATIENT’S VITAL SIGNS HAVE STABILIZED

True, the Yankees’ recent play bodes well. Pitching, as always, is winning’s keystone. And if the team’s starting rotation stays healthy, Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, and Clemens will join the company of the AL’s three elite starting staffs—the Tigers, the Angels, and the Red Sox. (The Indians won’t deserve mention among this group until Paul Byrd, Cliff Lee, and or Jake Westbrook match Sabathia and Carmonas’ performances thus far.)

Nonetheless, the Yankees’ inability to find a reliable starter to fill the fifth spot in the rotation will continue to plague them unless Igawa can replicate his recent success at AAA or Philip Hughes heals more quickly than anticipated. Ordinarily, a team can flourish despite having an erratic fifth starter. But the Yankees abysmal start foreclosed that luxury. For the Bombers to entertain designs on the AL East, they’ll need a quality start every fifth day to overcome a seven to nine game deficit. And lest you think the Wild Card is a desirable consolation prize, keep this in mind. If the Yankees qualify for the playoffs via the Wild Card, they’d likely have to travel 3,000 miles to open a five-game series against the one team they can’t seem to beat-- the Anaheim Angels.

Four other players whose performance holds the key to the Yankees success or failure are Abreu and Damon, on offense, and in the bullpen, Vizcaino and Farnsworth.

The Yankees owe their June revival, at least offensively, largely to one player-- Bobby Abreu. Through 17 games in the month of June, he’s batted .403 with a .523 OBA, 2HRs, 12RBIs, and 4SBs. More importantly, he’s averaged 5.72 pitches per at-bat. Both the number of pitches Abreu sees and his perpetual presence on-base, in turn, have catalyzed A-Rod. In fact, the two players’ statistical vagaries coincide: each thrived in early April and in June and foundered in May. Because of Abreu’s discriminating eye, A-Rod, while on-deck, can evaluate almost the entirety of an opposing pitcher’s repertoire, identifying his pitches’ speed, break, and location and gauging the quality of his stuff. (All the more critical for a batter like A-Rod who likes to outthink pitchers and to guess what they intend to throw him.) What’s more, with Abreu on-base, opposing pitchers can’t walk A-Rod or throw him pitches out of the zone. Abreu, accordingly, is the pivotal hitter in the Yankees lineup, as the third batter often is. Indeed, whether he thrives or falters in the second-half of the season will go a long way into deciding the Yankees fate.

Damon fulfills a similar role. He’s the lineup’s catalyst, enabling them to hit-and-run, to steal bases, and to generate runs via speed. He enhances Jeter’s strengths in the way Abreu helps A-Rod. With Damon on first, the first-baseman has to hold on him on the bag. This expands the hole between first and second and allows Jeter to maximize his in-side out swing to go to right-field. Damon and Jeter’s importance as catalysts will only increase if Giambi remains on the DL for all or most of the season. Without Giambi, the Yankees will have to generate runs through “small-ball” rather than homeruns. Indeed, at the moment, A-Rod is the only Yankee with a double-digit home run total. Posada has hit 9 and Matsui has 8.

Which makes the recurring injuries that have sapped Damon’s power and bat speed so troubling. As they’ve proven, the Yankees can win without Giambi. But to lose Damon to a prolonged stint on the DL or to chronic, nagging injuries which accomplish the same result will deal them a mortal blow. It’s no coincidence that the Yankees’ offense has sputtered in games when Melky Cabrera leads off. No hitter with a .308 on-base percentage belongs in the leadoff spot. Actually, it might behoove the Yankees to place Damon on the DL to allow his strained oblique muscle and aching calves to heal and to acquire a DH or an outfielder who can alleviate the loss of Damon’s production. The Oakland A’s just designated Milton Bradley for assignment. He would fill this role adequately. Besides, because the A’s have only 10 days to trade him, the Yankees also wouldn’t have to surrender much to obtain him.

Sure, Mark Teixeira would make an excellent addition to the lineup, strengthen their infield, and insure the Yankees’ against gaping hole A-Rod’s possible departure in the off-season could leave. (Look for my forthcoming post about why the Yankees otherwise cannot afford to let A-Rod opt-out of his contract.) However, if the Rangers insist one or more of the following prospects-- Philip Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, or Jose Tabata—then the Yankees should (and probably will) decline. No team should yield premiere young pitching prospects for a player who qualifies for free-agency in a year and, because he’s a Scott Boras client, won’t forgo it by signing a contract extension, especially one who has intimated he wants to play for the Orioles some day. Still less, should the Yankees, in particular, mortgage their future by squandering young pitching talent because their farm system is so deficient in promising position players and their major league roster is so old. Of the starters the Yankees play everyday only Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera are under 32. (A-Rod turns 32 on July 27th)

On the pitching side, if Vizcaino can solidify their respective roles and pitch consistently, the Yankees’ bullpen will evolve from a liability into strength.

Farnsworth’s role is critical for the obvious reason he pitches the 8th inning and sets-up Rivera. At the moment he has a 4.76 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP and opposing batters are hitting .261 against him. If these stats don’t improve, the Yankees are going to have trouble winning 90+ games.

Vizcaino, on the other hand, is the Yankees best insurance against Torre’s tendency to overuse Proctor and Bruney in the innings before Farnsworth and Mo. As Vizcaino’s past four outings demonstrate, when he can throw his slider accurately and with the necessary tilt, he paralyzes left-handed batters. This would enable Torre to limit Myers, in late inning situations, to that one power left-handed bat most productive lineups boast-- an Ortiz, Hafner, Carwford, or Morneau, for example-- that can wreck a game. And it would give Torre something of the versatility and flexibility to mix and match pitchers that the combination of Graeme Lloyd and Mike Stanton bestowed in the late 90’s.

THE TIMES THAT WILL TRY THE YANKEES, BODY AND SOUL

To qualify for the playoffs, the Yankees will have to garner approximately 95 wins. Since the wild card’s inception, only three AL wild-card qualifiers have fallen short of the benchmark: (i) the ’96 Orioles won 88 games; (ii-iii) ’98 and ‘99 Red Sox won 92 and 94 games respectively; and (iv) the ’00 Mariners won 91 games. (I exclude the ’95 Yankees because the strike truncated the season to 144 games.)

• The AL wild-card qualifier won 95 games in ’06, ’05, and ’03.

• In ’97, ’01, ’02 and ’04 respectively, the wild-card winner earned 96 wins, 101 wins, 99 wins, and 98 wins.

Now, history, to reiterate, isn’t prophecy. In fact there’s good reason to argue that this year the AL wild-card winner won’t need to amass as many wins because of the league’s parity. The AL Central has three good to very good teams, the Tigers, Indians, and Twins. Even the White Sox can win 80+ games if Konerko and Dye begin to hit. While in the AL West, Oakland and Seattle each could win over 85 games.

At first glance, one could surmise that this hurts the Yankees because more teams could contend for the wild-card. But the strength of the West and the Central division actually helps the Yankees. First of all, it dramatizes how weak the AL East is by comparison. The Yankees’ current record of 35-35 would place them in 4th place in either the Central or West; they sit in 2nd in the AL East. And with the unbalanced schedule, it’s the AL East teams the Yankees play 18-19 times. The corollary to which is that the AL Central and AL West teams each have to play their division rivals 18-19 times, which, in turn, would diminish their overall win totals and thereby reduce the win total the Yankees would have to amass to surpass them. With Cleveland, Minnesota, Detroit, and Chicago, on the one hand, and Anaheim, Oakland, and Seattle, on the other, all knocking each other off, the Yankees might not have to earn 95 wins to qualify. And if they do need to reach 95, well then their route is easier. The Yankees remaining games against the AL East divisional rivals below them in the standings are as follows:

• Baltimore 15 games Estimate (11-4)
• Toronto 14 games Estimate (9-5)
• Tampa 14 games Estimate (10-4)
• [Royals] [10 games] Estimate (7-3)

Yankees play 43 games against division opponents who are 80-117, .406

Compare this to the remaining schedule of team like the Cleveland Indians.

• Detroit 11 games
• Minnesota 13 games
• Chicago 12 games

Cleveland plays 36 games against opponents who are 107-92, .537

The Yankees also play the Kansas City Royals 10 times in the second half of the season. Add the AL East games enumerated above and the Yankees have 53 games of their remaining 92 (that’s 58% of their remaining schedule) against teams with a combined won-loss record of 109-161, a winning percentage of .403.

How to get to 95 wins?

Let assume for argument’s sake the Yankees go 37-16 (.698) against the Orioles, Blue Jays, Devil Rays, and Royals. That would give them 72 wins. They will need to win 23 more games against the opponents listed below.

• Angels 6 games Estimate (2-4)
• Detroit 8 games Estimate (5-3)
• Cleveland 3 games Estimate (2-1)
• Mariners 3 games Estimate (2-1)
• A’s 3 games Estimate (2-1)
• Twins 4 games Estimate (2-2)
• Giants 3 games Estimate (2-1)
• Red Sox 6 games Estimate (3-3)
• White Sox 3 games Estimate (3-0)

That means they would only need to go 23-16 (.590) in the above 39 games to win 95. Not an impossible prospect, by any means. And as I argue above, this year the Yankees might be able to qualify for the wild-card with less than 95 wins.

The Yankees may not make the playoffs in the end, but start planning their funeral at risk of your own.

Diane -

I don't think there's any question about it - personality shouldn't dictate who gets into the hall or not. But while the leaked Grand Jury testimony may not be usable in a court of law against Bonds it is usable in the court of public opinion. The public knows that his numbers are artificial and thus he will not get the recognition for them that he wants.

What's truly sad is that while this is going on, a clean player who has played the game the right way for years (Frank Thomas) is about to get 500 and no one seems to notice or care.

Read this on my blog.

Casual - the answer to your question is I have no idea. I've given it a lot of thought and there is just no way to project players across era's. Too many variables from equipment to training to stadium sizes to different pitches to expansion and integration.

MATT

I probably won't ! Thanks !

Off Topic and a bit random...But I think I heard that Ted Williams had his head frozen in Arizona.

Is that true?

What's your take on Rose?

Mine is that for better or worse Rose accepted a LIFETIME ban from baseball rather than have baseball probe deeper into his gambling. Therefor he is only eligible for consideration after he dies.

Hey do you guys stay up until 10 pm to watch the Yanks on West Coast road trips?

Diane,

I am of the opinion that the HOF should be about what the ball player did while playing the game of baseball....nothing more, or nothing less.

Although I strongly believe it is up to each and every one of us to set the example for our children, and to teach them right from wrong...which includes social behavior, by example...I dont think we should "cop out" and expect that sports stars should be held to unreasonable standards because we may be afraid of what "little timmy or susie" may discover about their hero....that's life. In any event, it has nothing whatsoever to do with pure baseball statistics...which is what the HOF should be.

MICHAEL

Wasn't that before through a court order they had to defrost ?

There is a guy who hangs on a Sox blog I frequent that goes by the moniker of "Ted's Head"

As an aside...Ted's genetics may not necessarily produce another .400 hitter......just look at his son...who played for the Sox in their A ball league......pitiful.

"Ted's Head"

You have to love redsox fans.

actually Phuck...this guy is a Yank fan.

Think of it as me calling myself "Billy's ditch" or "Thurman's airplane"

Here's my take on Rose...

He has ZERO class and not much more in the way of IQ score.

That aside it's ridiculous that he's not in the Hall of Fame.

As Cas stated for what he did on the field it's absurd to lock him out for being an imbecile.

DOesn't he have the all time hit record?

Chip,

You're right....there is no way of projecting. It is, however, interesting to think about.

Casual,

I'd agree with one little amendation: 'anything directly related to his playing the game of baseball' rather than 'while playing the game of baseball', since every job and profession has legitimate requirements that all need to follow. Infractions not directly related to his play should not affect his induction.

Chip,

You provide an elegant solution to the Pete Rose problem. LIFETIME ban means just that. He can be voted in very justly and appropriately when his lifetime is over.

Diane,

Tell me....how does that change anything? Does it make it more "justified"? I stand by my words.....the HOF should be, and always was ..about what a player did while playing the game....dont think for a moment that scandalous behavior is anything new to ML sports.

It strikes me as highly ironic that a society that is becoming more and more "socialistic" each and everyday...a society that stacks one entitlement upon another to the point where people are not only taught to be dependent, but are FORCED to not take responsibility for themselves or their actions, that we feel the need to "punish" a guy who was unquestionably one the best to ever play the game...because he bet on sports. He NEVER affected the outcome of one single game due to his gambling, which happened AFTER he retired from playing the game.....but he is banned for life because of it. Then, there is a guy who happens to be black...who happens to be an arrogant a-hole that no one likes...who loves to cry and play the "racial card", and who took steroids.....like a majority of players did when it was NOT banned by MLB....and who likely did nothing worse than ball players from all era's have done....yet he is the new whipping boy.

Tell me how anyone of us can justify this? We are utterly hypocritical and absolutely smug in our disdain of a MLB players behavior....when we cant control our own.