Just got back from an extended Thanksgiving break and it seems as if everyone has been busy carving up Johnny Estrada with the same knife they used on last week's bird.
Since the Mets traded for Estrada, the best thing said about him in most circles is that he is not Guillermo Mota. Don't get me wrong. That's a huge plus in itself. But Estrada, who may or may not be the Mets' catcher in 2008, has more going for him than that.
As someone in the industry pointed out -- a friend of this blog, let's say -- Estrada has helped good pitching staffs get better, and isn't that what the Mets are in the market for anyway? If they wanted (some) offense, they would have re-signed Paul Lo Duca, so dismissing him without so much as an offer is a refection of the team's mindset.
Maybe Estrada didn't have a great success rate throwing out runners last season. Neither did Ramon Castro, for that matter. But here's a few factoids to consider before urging the Mets to dump a prospect or two for Brian Schneider, Gerald Laird or Ramon Hernandez.
Anyway, here's what our FOTB pointed out:
In 2003, with Javy Lopez as primary catcher, the Braves had a 4.10 ERA, 12th best in baseball.
In 2004, when Estrada took over, the Braves had a 3.75 ERA, No. 1 in baseball.
---- The Braves improved their ERA by 0.35 and their ERA rank by 11 spots.
In 2005, with Chris Snyder as primary catcher, the Diamondbacks had a 4.84 ERA, 25th best.
In 2006, when Estrada took over, the Diamondbacks had a 4.48 ERA, 13th best.
----- The Diamondbacks improved their ERA by 0.36 and their ERA rank by 12 spots.
In 2006, with no primary catcher (Damian Miller was the closest), the Brewers had a 4.82 ERA,
25th best.
In 2007, when Estrada took over, the Brewers had a 4.41 ERA, 15th best.
---- The Brewers improved their ERA by 0.41 and their ERA rank by 10 spots.
For reference, the Mets had a 4.26 ERA in 2007, ranking them 12th in baseball. You can bet GM Omar Minaya is familiar with these numbers, and in a story written last week by my colleague Ken Davidoff, it certainly appears that Estrada is motivated for a bounce-back season with the Mets.
Comments (9)
Two points:
1) "Estrada, who may or may not be the Mets' catcher in 2008..."
He could be part of a platoon with Ramon Castro. I don't know why everyone dismisses that so quickly.
2) "If they wanted offense, they would have re-signed Paul Lo Duca..."
Hahaha! Thanks for the laugh.
Maybe the Mets need a trouble maker on the team. Right Willie.
I agree with Blastings! on both points. Castro is going to get ABs next season regardless of how Estrada plays. One good thing about this move is it sets up clear situations in which Castro should play (Estrada goes into a mini-slump, a tough LHP takes the mound against the Mets, etc). Estrada/Castro ? Castro/Estrada ? Ramon sees more playing time either way. Had Omar re-signed Lo Duca, one of "Willie's guys", Castro could slug .600 and not see increased playing time. Why ? Because he's the backup, and Lo Duca is the starter. Can't play the backup over the starter (even if the backup's OPS is 200 points better than the "starter's"), that's crazy talk !
While the past acqusitions of Estrada and subsequent decline in team ERA is hardly a causal relationship (no one calls *that* good a game behind the plate), it does appear to refute the argument that he is a negative influence on a team. We've heard about the dugout incident dozens of times since the Mets acquired Estrada (even though if a Met did that this past September, he'd would have been praised for "showing fire" '86-style !), did that incident hurt the Brewers any more than Lo Duca's tantrum that lead to his ejection and the inserting of a AAA catcher in the 10th inning of a tie game against Philadelphia hurt the Mets ? I doubt it highly.
Jon from NJ is crazy. Lo Duca one of "Willie's Boys". Lo duca almost decked Witless Willie because Willie wasn't playing him. Willie and Omar never liked Paul, and they showed all season that they had no intentions of keeping him around.
As far as Castro not getting playing time because of Paul. LOL LOL. It's hard to get playing time when YOUR OVERWEIGHT AND HURT!!!!!!!!!! Every season that Castro has a chance to play more, He GETS HURT!!!!!! He's only good for about 40-50 games a year. Unless he loses about 30 pounds and starts swallowing Advil for that Arthitic back of his.
I like being the backup. I don't have to stop eating.
It will truly be sickening to have to watch the yanks acquire J. Santana!!!!!! And would just add further proof to fans the Mets organization is amenable to 2nd. Class status in this great baseball city!
Published reports stated Santana turned down a 4-yr. 80MM extension by the Twins. They will now entertain trade talks for Santana. It's believed the yanks have the most talent of anyone in baseball to acquire Santana. Says who???? If the Mets were to package Reyes, Milledge and Humber would that trump the yanks offer of Hughes and or Chamberlain and or Cabrera and or Cano??? You betcha!!!!!!!!! And since it’s unlikely the yanks would trade BOTH Hughes and Chamberlain it stands to reason the Mets could offer more value for Santana.
The inclusion of Reyes a possible franchise / MVP player (not in my opinion) in a trade is twofold. For one it makes for quite an impressive package and secondly with a direct link to the future, it would help avoid the fleecing of our minor league talent. Starting in '08 and then '09 the Mets are going to be in the market for corner outfielders. Who is going to play LF in '09 after Alou?? Resign him for another year at the age of 43?? Probably not a wise move. With another year under his belt Carlos Gomez would make the seamless transition to LF in '09. A future star that would provide an immediate upgrade in defense and blazing speed. Who is the starting RF for '08 especially if Milledge is traded?? It could be the highly touted Fernando Martinez who will be 19 in '08.
Anderson Hernandez would more than adequately replace Reyes at SS.
The Mets should trade from their strengths not their near-future needs.
GET SANTANA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dan -
If Willie never liked Lo Duca, why did he continue to play him last season as Castro was outperforming him badly ? Either he favors him, or is afraid of him. Don't give me that "Castro breaks down with extended playing time" garbage. The only evidence of that is one 5-game span around the beginning of August where he went 3-23 with 2 HRs and 4 RBI. That's all you, and any other Castro detractor, has in support of the opinion that he breaks down.
Sean -
If the Mets dealt Jose Reyes, let alone Reyes + young players/prospects, for Santana, they'd be crazy. Mega deals for pitchers near, at, or over the age of 30 usually do not work out too well. Next year's crop of FA pitchers is excellent (Peavy, Sabathia, Chris Young, etc). If the Mets are patient, they can keep Reyes AND add a #1 starter in 2009. All this talk about how SS is such a replacable position - what SS are you going to get in the near future who has half the talent and potential of Jose Reyes ? Had the Mets dealt him after the season ended, the best option this offseason would have been Juan Uribe. Guys like Julio Lugo are making 9 mil a season, and Eckstein is asking for 4 yrs-40 million. Insanity. Anderson Hernandez can do an adequate job ? LOL - He was so bad offensively in 2006 that his awesome glove wasn't nearly enough for him to keep the 2nd base job on a very talented offensive team.
And I am so friggin sick of this inferiority complex among the Met fanbase. Who cares what the Yankees do ? Worry about your own team. The Yankees have 26 WS Championships, the Mets have 2 - better find a way to deal with that because it's going to remain lopsided for awhile. And Santana isn't changing that.
The NY Mets SS is:
- Immature
- Over hyped
- Undisciplined
- Prone to bouts of lost focus
- For a premier base stealer in his 4th. Yr. in the league he STILL gets picked off base with regularity - regularity!
WHO are we talking about here?! D. Jeter, A-Rod, E. Banks?????????????????? The fact is the Mets would be quite fortunate to be in a position to acquire Santana by offering Reyes!! Santana is only the best pitcher in the game today!!!!!!!!!
What kind of defeatist attitude concedes ’08??????????? YOU! So we can keep cry-baby Reyes and go after FA’s in 09?????!!!!!!!
To make this point CRYSTAL CLEAR: I couldn't give a rats a$$ what the yanks do!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! If I had my druthers the yanks would lose EVERY single game they play for the next decade. What I do care about is the effect a (needed) player traded / signed has on my team, the New York Mets!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
METS MUST ACQUIRE AT LEAST [1] STARTING PITCHER.THE A'S BILLY BEANE WILL DEAL HAREN AND BLANTON FOR SOME POSITION PLAYERS THE METS DOMT NEED, LIKE MILLEDGE, HERNANDEZ, GOMEZ & WHATEVER BULLBEN GUY THEY CHOOSE, EXCEPT WAGNER OF COURSE!!MINAYA MUST MAKE A DEAL & OAKLAND HAS THE PITCHERS THEY NEED MOST!!A METS FAN FROM DAY [1] GO METS!!!!IF THEY DONT TRADE FOR THESE STARTERS, THE 08 STAFF WILL BE SHORT HANDED, IF MARTINEZ OR EL DUQUE GO DOWN!!!