Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

So we're all done, and the trading deadline turned out not to be as quiet as anticipated _ yet still nothing compared to as recent as 2004.

In today's Newsday, you'll find my Winners and Losers. I didn't take many contrarian viewpoints here _ good moves by the Braves and Red Sox, and the Yankees still have a bullpen problem, unless they start hitting eight homers every game. In that case, Kyle Farnsworth can keep pitching with 11-run leads.

In Tuesday's blog entry, I accurately predicted just one trade, Scott Proctor for Wilson Betemit (thanks for the praise, Dad...err, I mean "Steve from South Amboy"). I didn't think the Red Sox would wind up making such an aggressive bid for Eric Gagne, nor did I think the White Sox would hold strong on their Jermaine Dye demands. It sounds like Dye, who can become a free agent this winter, is open to signing an extension with the White Sox, so maybe that will happen.

Chris, you commented, "...remember that there are actually people who dream about doing what you do for a living." I absolutely appreciate that fact, and I very much enjoy my job. I just thought I'd share with you that this can be a stressful time of year, just like each job contains its peaks and valleys. The trade deadline is quite exciting for reporters, but also draining. We're like general managers, only less intelligent (well, maybe not in all cases), worse dressed and worse compensated.

There has been an increase in comments since this blog turned into "Trade Patrol," and I hope you'll hang around now that we move into the next phase of the season _ and perhaps we'll rev "Trade Patrol" back up as we approach August 31. Thanks very much for all of the support.

It was about a year ago right now, as I type this, that Duaner Sanchez climbed into a Miami taxi cab. When he exited, he was done for the year, having severely injured his pitching shoulder in a crash.

The Mets, who had been hoping to land Houston's Roy Oswalt in a trade, shifted focus to their bullpen and took Roberto Hernandez and a young, flat-lining left-hander from the Pirates in return for Xavier Nady.

It's a dramatic example, but it does show: We can try to dig up every trade discussion as we approach today's non-waivers trading deadline, and yet the terrain is always changing. Different factors are constantly coming into play.

Now, with that being said, let's make some updated guesses:

Got a flight to catch in a few minutes (this is SFO, for those of you who don't travel much), but I wanted to check in now. I land at 6:21 a.m. Monday morning in Newark, and my hunch is that at the time, I won't be making much sense.

It certainly looks like we're going to have one big trade by Tuesday, with Mark Teixeira going to either Atlanta or Arizona. The Braves seemed like a certainty to get Teixeira, but as Kat O'Brien's mentor T.R. Sullivan reported Sunday night, Braves pitching prospect Matt Harrison _ one of the discussed pieces _ has shoulder problems.

UPDATE: The Braves are indeed getting Teixeira. Bold move by savvy Atlanta general manager John Schuerholz.

The Yankees and Mets are going hard after Eric Gagne, along with the Red Sox, and it's apparent that Texas GM Jon Daniels will have to decide whether he'll deal Gagne for second-tier talent _ he's not getting Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain, or Lastings MIlledge, or Clay Buchholz _ or hold onto him and try to re-sign him or simply accept the compensatory draft picks if Gagne bolts over the winter.

Otherwise, it appears, we're talking about smaller pieces. And, as I wrote in my Sunday Insider, you can expect August to be busy, as well. In that column, I mentioned that more players should pass through waivers than in past years. I neglected a more obvious reason: More teams will fall out of contention and will be willing to deal with the future in mind.

All right, gonna get on the plane now, then land, take my son to day camp, maybe take a short nap and then hit the phones.

I saw this story last night, and it prompted me to fire off an e-mail to a major-league official who would most certainly have interest in Dontrelle Willis _ as would the Mets.

"I still have not heard that Dontrelle is available," the official wrote back.

I hate to pick on this one story. Consider it more an attack on a perception, not completely unlike the Mets fans who keep pining for Roy Oswalt.

Dontrelle's case is a little different. As Fox Sports baseball guru Ken Rosenthal notes here, if the Marlins dealt Willis now, they would be selling low, given the lefty's poor 2007. Better to hang onto Willis and see if he rights himelf in the final two months, which would also help the Marlins' (very) longshot chance at a playoff berth.

It continues to appear as though no top-flight starting pitchers will change hands. As Rosenthal reports, the Braves appear to lead the chase for Mark Teixeira. Perhaps the Mets will jump in the Jermaine Dye hunt more seriously if Carlos Beltran doesn't rebound over the weekend. And on the relief hunt, the only guy guaranteed to be traded, it seems, is Octavio Dotel.

Four and a half shopping days left. But Mets fans should cancel those Dontrelle fantasies right now.

Have you noticed how similar our two baseball franchises are becoming? Both are opening new ballparks in 2009. Both spent last winter eschewing huge investments, looking to rely more on their own farm systems. Heck, they even split their season series, 3-3. It's a little freaky.

And now, as the non-waivers trade deadline approaches on Tuesday, it appears that the Mets and Yankees share the same focus. Both have prioritized relief help, according to people familiar with the respective situations. Anthony Rieber and Kat O'Brien reported so in today's Newsday.

The primary relievers available are Kansas City's Octavio Dotel and Texas' Eric Gagne. Since Houston has control of Brad Lidge, Chad Qualls and Dan Wheeler beyond this season, the Astros don't feel compelled to trade any of those guys. The Yankees talked about San Diego's Scott Linebrink, but that's not happening now.

The Mets have kicked the tires on second-base options like Kansas City's Mark Grudzielanek and Houston's Mark Loretta, but they actually like their current mix of Marlon Anderson, Damion Easley and Ruben Gotay. In the outfield, they still have faith that Moises Alou will be put back together again, and that Endy Chavez can help, as well.

Lastings Milledge would be a prime trading chip for a reliever, but he's probably playing too well right now, despite generating yet more controversy, to give away.

On the Yankees' side, you can pretty much forget any other position player joining the mix, even a part-time guy like Jeff Conine or Ty Wigginton. They're understandably satisfied with their offense at the moment. The reason you keep seeing the Yankees linked to Mark Teixeira is because general manager Brian Cashman always likes to stay in the loop on such big-time players.

Both clubs' bullpens could use some help, and the Yankees would gladly use one or more of their current relievers _ besides Mariano Rivera, obviously, and Luis Vizcaino, you'd have to think _ as trading chips. If the Yankees can't get a deal done, they could very well promote young stud Joba Chamberlain from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and try him as a setup man. And the Mets would hope that the eventual return of Pedro Martinez would strengthen the bullpen by putting Jorge Sosa there.

Strange things happen in the final days before July 31, and priorities could change. But these are the two teams' mindsets at the moment.

The Mets have now won four of five and five of seven, and this homestand (two more against Pittsburgh, four against Washington) provides them ample opportunity to build up a nice streak.

But the idea of "acquiring" Moises Alou and Pedro Martinez as midseason reinforcements is seeming less inspired by the day. Alou experienced yet another setback on Tuesday, just as he was finally ready to join the team. And Martinez isn't yet ready to start his 30-day rehabilitation clock.

So with July 31 so close, what do you think the Mets should do? As you know, the market isn't bursting with wonderful possibilities. But there are starting pitchers in Jose Contreras and Matt Morris (who pitched well for the Giants, in the game I covered), relievers in Octavio Dotel and Eric Gagne and bats in Jermaine Dye and Mark Teixeira.

The Mets could use some help at second base, with Jose Valentin out for a while. Their bench can't be scaring anyone. Their starting pitching is pretty consistent, and their bullpen has pitched better lately.

Whom should the Mets target? Houston's Mark Loretta at second base? Cincinnati's Jeff Conine for the bench? Contreras for the rotation? Or do you think they're good enough as is to make a run for the title?

One National League official predicted to me yesterday that we'd see "a flurry" of trades as we run right up to the July 31 non-waivers trading deadline. There are typically a lot of deals right on the 31st, although there's usually more chatter leading up to those trades than there has been this year.

It makes sense, because as long as you do your preparation _ as long as you know what players oppsing general managers want in return for their players _ you should be able to pick up the phone on the 31st and quickly execute a deal. And for whatever you want to say about our local GMs, neither Brian Cashman nor Omar Minaya has ever been accused of laziness.

Both Cashman and Minaya exhibited restraint last offseason, as many of their colleagues spent liberally. So far, the two men are being equally disciplined, not entertaining the possibility of giving up any high-level prospects. But what happens if the Yankees keep narrowing the gap on the Indians in the AL wild-card race? And if the Mets lose ground on the Braves and Phillies during what should be an easy homestand?

My prediction, here on Barry Bonds' 43rd birthday: Cashman won't make another move, after filling his biggest need of backup catcher. He'll even stick with his guy Kyle Farnsworth, refusing to pay his freight out of town. Whereas Minaya will acquire some bullpen help, although not a high-profile guy like Kansas City's Octavio Dotel or Texas' Eric Gagne.

If Mark Teixeira, Jermaine Dye and Mike Piazza get traded, then it won't have been such a horrible trade deadline, after all. We'll try and keep on top of this flurry forecast.

Arrived in San Fran at about 11:30 local time Sunday night, prepared for more Barry Bonds coverage. At the same time, I'll continue to monitor trade discussions around the industry, tame as they seem.

I'm in the middle of a new book from the Baseball Prospectus folks, titled, "It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over." Gotta deduct points for the Yogi-esque title, but it's another great effort, anyway. One essay covers the most lopsided trade-deadline deals, and it gives the all-time nod to the 1964 Cardinals, whose acquisition of Lou Brock (and Jack Spring and Paul Toth) from the Cubs for Ernie Broglio (and Bobby Shantz and Doug Clemens) paid huge dividends both in the short term and the long term.

What deadline trade do you remember the most? Perhaps it gave your club the edge it needed, or perhaps it killed your team. Personally, I'd have to go with the Yankees' swap of Jay Buhner (and Rich Balabon and Troy Evers) to Seattle for Ken Phelps on July 21, 1988. At the time, EVERYONE agreed it was a horrible deal for the Yankees. And it has been immortalized, thanks to "Seinfeld."

So what comes to mind for you? Kazmir for Zambrano? Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz? Whatever it is, it's looking like it won't be surpassed this year.

I'm off to Milwaukee this morning to join _ and help create, I suppose _ the Barry Bonds Circus. I think this is a terrific story, one that touches so many themes, from greed to pride to race to groupthink, from journalistic ethics to medicine to law. Looking forward to it, although admittedly hoping it doesn't drag.

But in the spirit of the trading season, let's narrow our focus and discuss Bonds the player. Let's say, just for kicks, the Giants resolved to trade him as soon as number 756 left the park. And Bonds, in the hopes of getting his first World Series ring, signed off on it.

I can't stress enough that this is a hypothetical; Bonds is going nowhere. But if you could have him for your team, would you want him? Would his on-base skills and occasional power be worth the media influx and clubhouse negativity?

P.S. Any restaurant recommendations in Milwaukee? I haven't been there since 1997, when I watched Dwight Gooden, Hideki Irabu, Andy Pettitte and David Wells (who recorded his 100th career victory) start games for the Yankees and met a young Brewers left-hander named Ron Villone. Also, this happened.

It had to have been no more than 48 hours after the Yankees' 2006 season ended. I was chatting with a stunned Yankees official (there was no other kind of Yankees official, at the time), and the person lamented, "Why did both Sheffield and Matsui have to get healthy in time?"

For when Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui both returned from wrist injuries last September, the Yankees had such excess that they shifted Sheffield to first base and benched Melky Cabrera. The lineup chemistry that had developed the prior two months vanished, and while you could label the pitching as the top culprit in that AL Division Series loss to Detroit, the offense underachieved, as well. And Sheffield was awful at first base, to boot.

There's a lesson to be learned there. As teams search for help outside the organization, particularly when it comes to everyday players, they must make sure "the pieces of the puzzle fit," as an NL talent evaluator put it yesterday in a phone conversation.

The Milwaukee Brewers are missing their centerfielder Bill Hall, for instance, and they expressed some interest in Texas' Kenny Lofton. But what would happen to Joe Torre's nemesis Lofton upon Hall's return? The team considers such consequences.

It's a fine line. After all, the Yankees felt they needed to acquire Bobby Abreu last summer because they weren't sure whether Matsui and Sheffield would return at all last season. And Abreu provided a huge spark, helping to lead the way as the Yankees leapt over and buried the Red Sox.

The trade-off, however, was that short-lived October (and yes, to reiterate, these details wouldn't have mattered if Mike Mussina, Randy Johnson and Jaret Wright had pitched better). So it's something to contemplate.

Back in July 2004, the Yankees desperately tried to acquire Randy Johnson from the Diamondbacks. The Yankees told Arizona officials that absolutely no one in their farm system was untouchable. But the D-Backs, having been burned by the Curt Schilling trade just a few months prior, opted to hold onto Johnson _ crushing the Yankees, who perhaps wouldn't have been embarrassed that October. Arizona, meanwhile, underestimated a couple of interesting, talented players.

Fast forward to three years later, and the Yankees could land pretty much any available player out there, thanks to their vastly improved farm system. An impressive group of pitchers, featuring Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy and Alan Horne, not to mention Phil Hughes, has the industry buzzing.

So what should the Yankees do with their well-earned stash of pitchers? Should they utilize some of the youngsters to acquire Akinori Otsuka and Mark Teixeira from the Rangers? Or should they pocket the arms and see how many thrive in the Bronx, consequently saving untold millions down the line by not having to rely on untrustworthy outsiders?

It's not an easy call, given the Yankees' distance from a playoff spot and the way their needs have been a moving target. Don't think for a moment that Brian Cashman will let his supposed job instability influence his thinking. The bet here is that Cashman (pictured here from a New York magazine story that same '04 sesaon) will absolutely be back in 2008, no matter whether the Yankees make the playoffs.

What would you do if you were Cashman?

Mike Piazza used to joke that, for his Hall of Fame plaque, he wanted to wear a Marlins hat. It was, after all, a memorable run in Miami: five games, no homers _ but hey, a triple! Just one of six for his career.

It's looking like his stay with the A's will be about as memorable.

The Most Popular Person in Flushing has been out since May 3 with a right shoulder injury, and by the end of the month, he could very well be wearing his sixth big-league uniform. The A's quickly replaced Piazza at designated hitter with Jack Cust, who has finally displayed his long-discussed potential. That caused the A's to ask Piazza to rehabilitate as a catcher, to help the offensively lagging Jason Kendall. But the slumping A's traded Kendall to the Cubs yesterday, a move signalling Oakland's philosophical shift toward 2008.

Kendall didn't leave, in other words, to get Piazza more reps behind the plate. Piazza is far better off as a DH, and he could help an AL contender like the Twins. How about a stint in the Bronx? Do you think Piazza could play first base? (Kidding).

Given this trade market, the A's will have to pay most of Piazza's salary (he's making $8.5 million this year) to get anything of value in return. The A's surely would rather have a Grade B prospect to show for Piazza, rather than trying to shoehorn him into the lineup. So here's hoping he is in a relevant place come August and September, adding some memories for that plaque _ perhaps even his first World Series title.

The mere words "Jose Conteras" evoke strong reactions everywhere, whether it's Cuba (fist-shaking), the Bronx (more fist-shaking), the South Side of Chicago (gratitude) or Boston (gratitude - that they never signed him). When you look at his career numbers, you confirm that the likeable righthander has only occasionally approached the hype that accompanied him into the big leagues.

Contreras lost his 11th game on Sunday, and his ERA jumped to 5.32. His velocity has dropped, and an industry source said that Contreras has experienced discomfort in the back of his shoulder. This discomfort is preventing him from full extension and therefore impacting his arm speed.

So. You want him, Mets fans?

The White Sox, having locked up Mark Buehrle, are open to trading Contreras, the pitching star of their 2005 World Series title winners. Contreras is signed through 2009; he's not a rental, which is what disinclined the Mets from making a heavy bid for Buehrle. I bet a reunion with Orlando Hernandez, his former teammate with the Yankees and White Sox, would help, and Rick Peterson makes nearly everyone better (although White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper is pretty good, too). And he would surely improve, like most, by facing National League lineups.

Drawbacks? A potentially serious injury, for starters. His career-long inconsistency. Is he afraid of New York? I'm not sure about that one. In his disappointing Yankees tenure, Contreras was dealing with a new country, a new language, the knowledge that his wife and daughters were still in Cuba (they're not anymore) and the Joe Torre-George Steinbrenner feud of 2003, nastiest of them all, in which Contreras was an essential pawn. That's a lot beyond your typical adjustment to the Yankees. He might be better equipped now to handle Shea Stadium's passion and scrutiny.

I think the Mets should seriously consider it, although they'd have to perform a physical examination of Contreras before signing off on the deal. Contreras has shown that, when right, he can carry a staff. And the Mets need someone to fill that role.

What do you think?

We pre-empt the usual Friday fare, Weekend Predictions, to honor the spirit of the season. From today through August 1, I'm going to include at least one daily element about the July 31 non-waivers trading deadline - be it original reporting, an opinion, a question posed to you or an attempt to clean up some of the more ridiculous stuff being floated out there.

I'm going to start with something out of the last category today, because it's a buzz that hasn't gone away and has been perpetuated by the player in question, of all people. Roy Oswalt, the Astros' ace, recently told the Houston Chronicle that he'd be open to waiving his no-trade clause.

What prompted Oswalt to say such a thing;, I don't know. Perhaps he's simply annoyed by the Astros' subpar season. But to think for a moment that Houston would be looking to give away Oswalt is intellectually dishonest.

The guy is a great pitcher, and he's in the first season of a five-year, $73-million contract, a deal that became a supreme bargain the moment Barry Zito finished signing his name on the seven-year, $126-million contract with the Giants. And the Astros certainly don't need to trim payroll, not with their nice, modern stadium, The Ballpark Formerly Known as Enron Field.

Just because team stinks in a particular season (as is the case with this year's Astros), that doesn't mean the team detonates its roster. The Astros will be looking to compete next year, and they'll have a far better chance to do so if Oswalt is taking the ball for them every fifth day.

So, Mets fans and anyone else engaging in Oswalt fantasies, give it a rest. The package that it would actually take to get Oswalt is unfathomable; figure something like John Maine plus multiple prospects, and maybe another established big-leaguer, too. It's simply not happening. Let's discuss other names, but let's leave Oswalt out of it.