Playoff predictions, and Brian Cashman's return
Hope you all had a nice couple of days.
First, to look back, here are my preseason predictions, the reason I have to pick two new pennant winners. Stupid Mets and Blue Jays. Ay yi yi, did I get conned by the Tigers' and Mariners' 2007-08 offseasons.
So, looking ahead, I see the Phillies winning it all for the first time since 1980, when Pete Rose looked like this.* I love their lineup, including the red-hot Ryan Howard, and the way the team clicks in big moments. I like the starting rotation headed by Cole Hamels and Brett Myers and followed by the ageless Jamie Moyer. And I think they have the best closer, currently, in Brad Lidge, his struggles today notwithstanding
*Joe Posnanski style theft alert: I'm counting on my buddy Paul Lukas of Uni Watch (linked to the left, as is Joe's blog) to read this and notify me, immediately, whether Rose actually wore this uniform during the 1980 season, or whether this happened during a different time from Rose's 1979-83 run with the Phils.
UPDATE: Paul Lukas concurs with commenter John Phillips; the Phillies wore this uni just once, in 1979. Here are the details.
Here are my full picks:
AL: Red Sox over Angels in 5. Rays over White Sox in 4. Rays over Red Sox in 6. The Red Sox scored more runs than the Angels (845-765) and allowed fewer (694-697), so I hardly feel like I'm predicting an upset, especially when we're talking about the defending World Series champs. Meanwhile, the Rays should handle a fatigued White Sox club. Tampa Bay proved in September that it was not at all intimidated by the Sawx ,and that will carry through the ALCS.
NL: Dodgers over Cubs in 4. Phillies over Brewers in 4. Phillies over Dodgers in 7. Impending free agent Manny Ramirez _ hitting like crazy, on his best behavior _ will be enough to carry Joe Torre's group over the favored Cubbies, while the Phillies should easily take care of Milwaukee. And in the NLCS, Philadelphia, which didn't want Manny back in July, will match Manny with Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Pat Burrell.
And then we'll say Phillies over Rays in 6, in the World Series, our first Fall Classic to last that long since 2003.
2003 marked the Yankees' last World Series appearance, which makes this an acceptable segue to discuss Brian Cashman. Yes, he's back, and yes, I think Yankees fans should be pleased.
All you have to do is look at this year's AL playoff contenders and see the common denominator: Young talent. For the Rays, Red Sox and Angels, it's largely homegrown. The White Sox have more of a mix of guys they developed and guys they acquired, like John Danks and Gavin Floyd.
None of the four clubs experienced an entirely smooth transition. The Red Sox and Angels both missed the playoffs in 2006. The White Sox skipped the prior two Octobers after their 2005 championship. And the Rays took their entire lifetime to get here.
Cashman gets that. What happened in 2008 doesn't deter him from that. This is what he said to me back in February, when Hank Steinbrenner already was chirping about the decision not to get Johan Santana:
"I choose not to look at something as six months. Whatever happens, it's only six months. I've got a bigger picture in mind. And I think that the next five-to-10 years of the franchise, (people) will be very proud of a lot of the work we are doing, and I'm willing to walk through fire to get there."
I think this past season qualifies as "fire." Cashman was brutally honest today in saying that he was motivated largely by how others would regard him if he walked away now to Seattle (and it would've been Seattle, not Philadelphia or Washington or ESPN or anywhere else, according to friends of Cashman). It made him sound a little like the ultra-defensive Willie Randolph, to be making important life decisions because of stuff like this. But I guess he gets points for honesty.
Inside the baseball industry, Cashman is regarded with immense respect. For his forthrightness, his calm under pressure and his willingness to retool the Yankees with this emphasis on youth. I remember asking Theo Epstein last January whether he was happy Cashman passed on Johan Santana. Epstein responded: "I wish the Yankees were still operating the way they were five years ago," when they were constantly giving away young talent for expensive veterans.
It's silly to declare the Santana saga over, one year into it. I'm not saying that Phil Hughes will wind up a superstar and Santana will wind up injured. But don't you think we should let some more time pass before casting final judgment?
Thanks for all of the chatter while I took off for the Jewish holiday.
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Comments (31)
Phillies over Brewers, Cubs over Dodgers.
Angels ovrer Sox, Rays over Sox.
Angels over Rays
Cubs over Phillies
I thought I was gonna type Angels but I cant see the Cubs getting this far and losing. Cubbies in 7. Though the ridiculous 2-3-2 format could hurt them.
Every NY baseball fan who says he doesn't care now that his NY team is eliminated should be rooting against the Red Sox. Yankee fans may hate the mets and met fans may hate the yankees but we all hate Boston. It's the same as in football, the NFC East fans all hate each other, but when we all play Dallas, we root against Dallas against anyone.
I had the Tigers vs. Arizona in the World Series in March, I now have the Cubs vs. the Angels with the Angels winning when Steve Bartman shows up in the first base box seats and costs the Cubs the win in the bottom of the ninth of the 7th game which the Angels had been trailing.
1st round winners...........Phillies, Dodgers, Angels, Chisox.
2nd round winners...... Dodgers, Angels.
Angels win it all.
Wow...those old Phillie uniforms were ugly. I remember it now...I was in Phila at the time. I don't think they wore those threads too many times.
Epstein really said that ?
Cashman's motivation for retooling and youth came from Epstein so, in effect, Theo is complimenting himself.
I agree. I think the Phils run the table. Pitching is a little underwhelming but Lidge is having an unbelievable year and the momentum from the final 15 games should carry over.
JE to answer your question to me on the other thread: Raul Ibanez should be who the Mets get. He's really a good player and would help the Mets. Certainly a superior player to Adam Dunn.
And, I don't think Ryan Howard should be voted MVP based off of one month of superior production, and my favorite NL team is the Phillies. When you hit .220 all year and try to break your own record for strikeouts in a season for five months, then become Albert Pujols for the last month of the season and enable your team to win the division on the next to last day of the season, doesn't make you MVP. It makes me wonder why you didn't do it the first five months and let the Phillies clinch on September 10th like the Angels.
Phillies make the Cub fans cry again
Angels end the Rays fine season
Angels sweep the Phillies
Sandy I agree with you 100% about Howard. He should not be the MVP. However it maybe the sickest month in the history of months.
Ken, you definitely shouldn't reveal it in the comment section of the blog, but I would love to know how long you took considering all of the considerates. Your whole 10 votes. And how much different it would have been had the Mets made the playoffs instead of the Brewers.
ALDS: Angels in 5, Rays in 4
NLDS: Cubs in 4, Phillies in 4
ALCS: Angels over the Rays in 6
NLCS: Cubs over the Phillies in 7
World Series: The Cubs have a one run lead heading into the bottom of the 9th. But then Vlad Guerrerro hits a walk-off 2-run controversial home run down the leftfield line that the umipires rule a home run because it hit the fair/foul pole. The umps review the play with instant replay and then they ruled the play stands even thought the ball clearly didn't touch the fair/foul pole according to the the replays on TV. Lou Piniella after the game will see the replay and then tries to go after the umps and has to be restrain by police. Angels in 7 and the Cubs World Series drought continues.
Ken, some of your colleagues said that the Twins should have hosted the 1 game playoff at home last night because they won the season series over the White Sox 10-8, instead of having a coin flip decide where the game is play, Also, Buster Olney in his blog today said that the Padres will trade Jake Peavy in the off-season. Your thoughts?
Ken - two questions...
Keith Hernandez (and others) have suggested the Mets need a grab 'em by the scruff of the neck leader (kind of like him) - based on the positions they need, who do you think fits that mold? I've heard Eric Byrnes and Orlando Hudson suggested, but was curious what you thought (assuming you agree with the premise in the first place).
Johan pitching on a bum knee is a great story, but does that mean he wouldn't have been available if the Mets made the playoffs?
Richie, answers on the MVP will be coming - some sooner, some later.
Dennis, I saw that in Buster's blog. Very, very interesting. I'll address more tomorrow.
Andy, I don't agree with Hernandez's premise in the first place. I think the Mets scored 799 runs, good enough for second place in the National League, and had one of the most horrible bullpens in recent memory.I think it's reasonable to expect that Reyes and Wright will mature with age - and to me, those guys are already leaders to an extent just because they play every day.
I can't imagine that Santana would've missed the playoffs.
Ken looking forward to the answers. I'm curious as to when the deadline was and when it was in the A.L. considering they started after? Also, does someone get an AL and NL vote?
I'm going to give my top 10. Andy, I think the Mets need someone who will keep them loose when the going gets rough.
I was on a team that lost a lot in the playoffs and one year we added this crazy fun guy with talent. He wasn't like us but he wanted to win busted it but always did it with a smile. We won the championship that year and I'm convinced it was his attitude more than anything else that helped us.
I know mine is a rec league and the Mets are pros, but I think the concept would work there. The good Manny would be perfect.
If you read anything about Manny in the LATimes (especially from TJ Simers, who normally wouldn't praise anyone) you wouldn't think this is the same guy from Boston Red Sox. They love him. OTOH, I understand how Boston press depicted Wade Boggs, and he was nothing like that as a Yankee. And Pedro who was selfish etc. when he was up there, was nothing but a masterpiece while a Met. Roger...Roger is a phony but I can't say he was treated fair up there either. What everyone needs to understand is this--the reporters in Boston are fans of the teams they report on, and many of them are racists (see Shaughnessy).
Sandy - ouch
I don't believe your characterization of the "curly haired boy" is accurate, warranted nor desired to be mentioned in thsi blog.
I you want to discuss the situation upon reserach, read "Shut Out" by Howard Bryant or come to the debate armed with facts.
I grew up in the Boston area in the era of busing and Louise Day Hicks and Southie's opposition to school integration. I sat with Frank Robinson and Reggie Smith while they discussed their problems playing in Boston (and in Smith's case, living there).
The fans are the issue - not the reporters - well, ever since Howard Kaese declared he would only vote for the most valuable white man when considering the merits of Jackie Robinson.
Pardon my typo - I meant Harold Kaese said that a writer in 1949 would not vote for JR because he was black. Profound apologies
I have written here before I believe Shaughnessy to be a racist and Ken allowed it (ironically), even though he thinks Dan is a tremendous writer. As far as evidence, I'll produce Jim Rice, Manny, Pedro, and Carl Everett, who had a fight with Shaughnessy over something that was written. Rice certainly didn't like being covered there and the hostility was very bad (now it's different). Manny claims they were racist to him to Simers. Pedro isn't anything like he was portrayed (although I never liked him). I dont know these people personally and never dealt with them, so why would I think these players are so bad? It comes from the media, and their biases toward players (and to that I'll add Bonds). Yes, I agree the Boston fans are extremely racist, but the reporters shouldn't suck up. It was worse before when Bill Russell was there, from what I have read.
Hey Ken - What's the story with the troll Jim?
Curt Schilling and other current Sox players hate Dan - does that mean he's also anti-white?
Sandy, I'm not there but I have a feeling its a lot less racist now than it was then.
Its probably a lot easier playing and living in Boston as a black person.
As for Carl Everett, go read his wiki page ....gays, dinosaurs, no moon landing, fights, crotch grabbing and fights with umpires..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Everett
he's not exactly a character witness I'd trust..
I saw Carl Everett play this summer for the LI Ducks. He was at least 40 lbs. overweight.
Bob, who do you think the best owner has been over the past 30 years?
There aren't that mnay that have positive characteristics, but..
Over the entire period - I have to say Steinbrenner despite his antics. Over the past few years - Henry, Werner and Lucchino
Asking who the best owner is like asking who your favorite Bengal is that isn't a criminal. Very few options.
Bob, I agree. It's hard to believe but I also think it is Steinbrenner. I like the fact he was on the losing end of some lopsided owner votes. George did some bad stuff, but he also did some great stuff.
Seriously, what's with the troll? Bob, I was thinking either Steinbrenner or Lucchino when I asked the question.
Sandy, I was pointing out that Ryan Howard is an MVP candidate, not that he's no. 1 on my list. Pujols is my first, second, and third choice for the award. No one else comes close.
Regarding Ibanez: agreed, he is a very good ballplayer, but keep in mind that he will turn 37 next June while Dunn will be 29. If the Amazins do go after Raul, let's hope that the contract length does not exceed two years.
Previously, I had predicted the Cubs over the Rays in six games.
Ken, WasWatching featured your most recent article ("Cashman aims to win with dysfunctional Yankees") in its latest post:
http://waswatching.com/2008/10/01/are-yanks-still-a-house-divided-against-itself/
His conclusion:
"The Yankees, “today,” sound like the same splintered organization that they were before Cashman got his “autonomy.” So, has anything really changed in the Yankees front office since that church service for Otto Graham (back in December 2003)? Maybe not…in fact, maybe now it’s worse?"
For those who are not familiar with that site, WasWatching is no fan of Cashman and went off on the contract renewal earlier today.
http://waswatching.com/2008/10/01/why-bringing-cashman-back-was-a-mistake/
The picture is from 1979. The Phillies only wore those uniforms once before retiring them forever due to negative fan reaction.
Good move by Cashman and the Yanks. He's got a mixed record, to be sure, but when you think about it, who doesn't? And let's remember, an off year in Yankeeland is 89-73... it's not like they went 70-90.
I wouldn't be surprised if they passed on both Sabathia and Texieria this off-season. I could see them doing less splashy things like signing Derek Lowe and trading for Peavey.
I think, and it's only MHO, that the issue with Shaughnessy is that he thinks who he is... most players and some observers up north believe that he invented the whole Bambino Curse to sell his dopey books. The guy can write, no question about that, but it seems that players look at him the way they look at a teammate when it's all about them. And he does have a history of going after minorty players more than others. Given the history of race relations in Beantown, it's understandable how folks would connect the dots.
As for Schilling, well, what can you believe, really? Shaughnessy will write a column tomorrow lauding Curt, and after that Curt will write on his blog that Dan's the best scribe since Damon Runyon. Then that will change as well. It's all hot air with number 38.
Tim - CHB wasn't the one who went after Jim Rice early in his career. Rice made a report wait for him and the steaming scribe told him he'd break him. Manny - please! if you're using him as an example, the entire Sox roster is now prejudiced. Everett? He's totally divorced from reality! Oil Can Boyd? Pedro? That one I cannot answer.
Is it racist for every non-white player to lash out at a white reporter? To "show then the Bronx?".
Is it racist for there to be so few non-white reporters?
The cottage blog industry that Dan is racist is ludicrous. Print a criticism in one of his columns that is appaling or shut it down.
Bob... I agree with you. Shaughnessy's just an example of how you don't have to be a racist to be a jerk. I just think Boston is extra-twitchy given the town's history, which (having said that) I would defer to you on, as a native.
But you're right: Rice never got along with any reporters, and you need only look at the HOF vote every year to see them (wrongly, IMHO) taking it out on him. Everett and Boyd were both, I think the clinical term is... nuts. Shaughnessy did seem to take a particular delight in going after Manny, but you could certainly argue over who turned out correct there in the end.
Tim - another reason that writers shouldn't vote is that their friends and sources get a vote while the players who diss them are put on the outside...as the writers petulatntly get the last word.
In retrospect, Rice's stats look pretty damn good pre-steroids.