September Monday, Part I
As a reminder of how humbling our favorite game can be, on Sept. 8, 2007, the Mets defeated the Astros, 3-1, at Shea Stadium. The winning pitcher, Tom Glavine, is out for the year, and his career could be over. The losing pitcher, Woody Williams, retired after the Astros released him at the end of spring training. And the man who picked up the save, Billy Wagner, appears done for the season, too.
Anyway, when we get to the second Monday in September _ the first Monday after Labor Day, if that helps you (scroll down for this underrated George Costanza line) _ I feel like we're really in the stretch run. We'll take this Monday and the next two to take a broad view of things and see what we have in the week ahead.
First, with the Angels winning and Rays losing yesterday, here are your updated playoff seedings:
AL
Angels (1) vs. Boston (4)
Tampa Bay (2) vs. White Sox (3)
NL
Cubs (1) vs. Dodgers (3)
Mets (2) vs. Milwaukee (4)
Now, what have we got?
Biggest series this week: Rays at Red Sox, tonight through Wednesday, and Brewers at Phillies, Thursday through Sunday. If the Sawx sweep the reeling Rays, then they'll leap over the young upstarts in the AL East. Meanwhile, the Phillies, trailing the Brewers by four games in the NL wild-card chase, can put themselves legitimately in two races with a strong weekend at home.
Best divisional races: Mets-Phillies, because of last year, and Dodgers-Diamondbacks, because there's no safety net. While the Phils could sneak into the wild-card berth, which ever team loses the NL West will head home. Rays-Red Sox has the fallback of the wild card, unless the Blue Jays put together another undefeated week. The White Sox now lead the Twins by two and a half games; let's see how that race looks a week from now. The White Sox open a series with Toronto tonight.
Most banged-up team: Gotta be the Mets, doesn't it? It looks like they're going to have to fake it with their bullpen the rest of the way, John Maine is no cinch to come back and Pedro Martinez is a mess. Good thing the Mets' schedule is so easy, which leads us to...
Easiest schedule: The Dodgers: Three at San Diego, three at Colorado, four at Pittsburgh, three against San Francisco at home, three against San Diego at home, three at San Francisco. Twenty games, and not one against a winning team. I don't think any of us can appreciate how much Joe Torre will revel in his success and the Yankees' correlating misfortune if the Dodgers hold on here.
Earliest champagne order: The Angels' magic number to clinch the AL West is three.
Three Most Important Players: Right now, it feels like 1) Carlos Delgado, who just keeps bailing out the Mets when they need help; 2) Manny Ramirez; can you imagine a Red Sox-Dodgers World Series; and 3) CC Sabathia, who is simultaneously leading the Brewers to a long-awaited playoffs invitation and boosting his free-agency resume.
Three Inspirations to the lowly Yankees: 1) White Sox, who saw young starting pitchers John Danks and Gavin Floyd blossom a year later than anticipated; 2) Red Sox, who missed the 2006 playoffs (to the fury of their fans) and lived to celebrate another day; 3) Rays, who are showing the Steinbrenners in their own neighborhood the value of strong player development
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Comments (28)
Good morning, Ken.
The Dodgers might have an easy set of games to close out the season, but those two series against San Fran also serve as an opportunity for Lincecum to claim the Cy Young. His numbers have been incredible so far, all the more impressive when one considers that the team has an anemic offensive and the defense is below-average.
I suspect that Webb is no longer the favorite, in light of his last three starts. Regarding CC, Rick Sutcliffe got the Cy in 1984, but it is also worth noting that neither Doyle Alexander nor Randy Johnson won the award following mid-summer, interleague trades.
By the way, here's a NY Mag piece of interest (Apres George Le Deluge) that was just posted: http://nymag.com/news/sports/49941/
The author, Chris Smith, discusses Hank and Hal and the future of the Yankees.
Ken/commentators:
Is there any significant strength of schedule difference in MLB this year that could have a bearing on a team making the playoffs and another going home?
Ken
Sorry if this has been asked elsewhere, but in regards to the A's and Orioles, when is the last time teams didn't have a game scheduled on a Sunday?
The Rays have officially feel the pressure of a pennant race. The Rays went 1-5 this past week, including being swept by the Jays. Big series coming up against the Red Sox in Boston.
The Mets bullpen will come back to haunt them one way or the other. Wheither it is for the NL East or in the playoffs. With Wagner now looks like he's out for the season, the Mets pen the way they are constructed is not going to a World Series.
Gotta disagree, Dennis: losing Evan Longoria to the 15-day DL was much more of a factor to the Rays' recent woes than "pressure". Frankly, if they take even one game in Fenway, a venue where they have not won all year, I think they'll be fine....
The only good news last night was about Phil Hughes.
He went 8 innings, walking none and striking out 11 to send Scranton (AAA) onto the next round of the playoffs. Watched the game online and he was dominating.
There's no greater sign of the ridiculous win-now culture than when you hear people say "You shouldn't give up on Phil Hughes yet." Give up on him? How could you? He's only 22! He dominated the minors, got rushed to the big leagues, held his own, won a playoff game with stellar relief, broke with the team the next year, struggled a bit, and then got hurt. Even if he wasn't 22, what has he done that was so horrible to make people lose faith? People nowadays assume that what you have when you come up as a 21 year old is all that you have -- as if a ceiling drops over your head the moment you step on a big-league field.
Baileywalk, you bring up an interesting point. Any struggling, but highly-touted pitcher 25 or younger can be explained away as an investment in the future. The same may be said about most young position players.
Tim Marchman discusses the issue in revealing this year's LEAST valuable player:
http://www.nysun.com/sports/who-is-the-least-valuable-player/85340/?print=3964880221
Huge win for the Mets last night as they only give up one game to the Phillies. Imagine the headlines had been swept? It also shows that they are going to survive without Wagner. Ken is good at predictions, but I don't believe anybody had the mets winning with Stokes as the 8th inning guy and Ayala as the closer. But as Al Davis always said, Just Win Baby!
As I have opined before, the easiest way to fix bullpen woes is for the offense to produce more runs. Matt, I trust Stokes in the eighth and Ayala if the Amazins are up by three. Ahead by only two and I am nervous. A one-run lead? I am a friggin' wreck!
Please, please, please, Jerry, let Church bat second all the time. He CRUSHES fast balls!
Gerry, the Rays also lost Carl Crawford also, and Crawford is as important as Evan Longoria.
If the Mets had been swept by the Phillies, were be talking about last year all over again. As I said before and I'll say it again. If the Mets bullpen has to be a factor late in the game, they are in trouble.
JE, nice piece by Chris Smith. I like Chris and enjoy his work. However, I can't stress this enough - the Steinbrenners want Cashman back. There is no doubt about that, no mystery. This decision is Cashman's, not the team's.
Bob, I should've included "Hardest schedule," and it would be Boston: Home against Tampa Bay for three, home against Toronto for three, at Tampa Bay for three, at Toronto for three, Cleveland at home for two, Yankees at home for three.
Andy, great question. I can't think of a prior, scheduled Sunday off day. I do remember that in the '80s, when the Padres shared Jack Murphy Stadium with the Chargers, the Padres often had a Saturday off in August so that the Chargers could play an exhibition game.
baileywalk, agreed 100% on Hughes and the impatience we have with young pitchers. Pelfrey and Edwin Jackson are the latest proof that many kids need time.
Matt T. I don't predict the journey, I just predict the destination ;)
Dennis, this is Jason, not Gerry.
Crawford: .273 .319 .400, 25 steals in 32 attempts
Longoria: .278 .352 .533, 7 steals in 7 attempts
Clearly, Longoria was missed more. Moreover, Baldelli is back.
Nonetheless, the Rays are not cracking under "pressure". For the past two weeks, they fielded a weaker lineup.
My mistake for calling out Gerry. It was JE who I was answering about his comment.
Ken - now for the entire 2008 season.
Due to division play and interleague games, has any team been helped/hurt significantly due to a favorable 2008 schedule? Enough to make a possible playoff/wild card race?
No worries, Dennis. Usually, I get "Josh" or "Jacob" or "GE" when folks mistake me for someone else, but "Gerry" works too! ;-)
Ken -
The Yanks are dead in the water..and I have accepted that.
However, I was surprised by the schedule. Back in early August Francessa warned about the 9 games they had to play with the Angels.
Don't the AL East teams typically only play the AL West teams six times a year...?
JE when Crawford went down he was just getting hot after a pretty mediocre season. The Rays were lucky that Baldelli was ready to come back the next day and they had Hinske having a career year for the most part. When Longoria went down, Erick Aybar took over and began producing at a career season pace as a regular which contributed to a terrific west coast road trip and the stretching of the lead. The Rays major problem is they aren't any good on the road and they have more road games than home games left.
To the Yankees detriment, the farm teams are going deep into the playoffs preventing them from bringing up all the prospects they want to see in the majors. Particularly Hughes and Kennedy which are important decisions to make to see if either one should be kept or traded in the off-season (since it appears the Yankees are way down on both, moreso Kennedy)
I'd say the Angels benefited the most from their schedule, Bob, especially because the A's bailed halfway through the season and the Mariners were so much worse than some (like me) anticipated. Who was hurt the most? I don't see any team in particular. Every division has teams that should have represented oases.
Gerry, because there are only four teams in the AL West, those clubs have just 57 intra-division games (as opposed to the 76 of the AL East and Central and NL East and West, and 95 for the NL Central), and therefore have another 19 games to fill. Therefore, it is quite common for AL East and Central teams to play three series against AL West teams. This year, for instance, the Yankees also played three series with Seattle (two at home). Last year, they played three series with the Angels, but two at home, and three series with Seattle (two at home).
Sandy, I'd be very surprised if the Yankees traded Hughes, assuming Cashman returns. I wouldn't say they're "way down" on Hughes - the guy has barely pitched.
JE, just listened to that Carson Palmer radio interview you linked. That seemed pretty innocuous, no? Just having a little fun with trash talk.
Sandy, I don't disagree that WILLY Aybar has done well (Erick plays for the Halos, no?), but Longoria was giving the team roughly a .590 SLG and excellent defense in June and July. As well as Aybar played, Longoria was still missed.
You commented that the Rays don't play well on the road but subsequently said that they had a "terrific west coast road trip." (They also took two of three on the South Side.) Also, they do get the Red Sox for three in Tampa next week, where they have not dropped a game to Boston.
Ken, I went to SUNY Albany, then a Div III school, not some Big Ten behemoth, so admittedly I don't have allegiances when it comes to college football. Still, when you play for a professional team that calls Ohio home, don't you think that Palmer should have spent more time hyping SC and less tearing down the Buckeyes? I mean, what's the point, unless you're looking to skip out on future local endorsement deals....
Perhaps Joe Girardi didn't understand the Steinbrenners, or there was some "failure to communicate".
They "fired" Joe Torre becuase the Yankees lost in the first round of the playoffs three years in a row. Did Hank, Hal and/or George tell Girardi that they must not lose in the first round in 2008?
Well, they probably won't!
I don't know, JE - to me, it was all in good fun. I hate when athletes speak in platitudes, so I admire that he spoke from the heart. If he leads to Bengals to the playoffs, he can crush Ohio State all he wants and the fans won't care.
JE before the Rays went on the road trip they were 6 under .500 on the road when they came home they had a nice lead and were .500 on the road. All those Aybars get me confused. :(
I think the Rays have lost something like 24 of their last 25 series in Fenway park where they are right now working out the weekend kinks in Toronto.
It's probably too little too late, but my vote for this year's Colorado Rockies award goes to the Houston Astros. They are 6 out of the wild card with a pretty soft schedule. They have gone 31-16 since the break and are worth keeping an eye on this week.
Sandy, until this year, the Rays "lost something like 24 of their last 25 series" EVERYWHERE! ;-)
I don't disagree that there's a tough "road" ahead, but following the Sox those games are against the Yankees, Tigers, and Orioles, three teams that will be playing out the string. The seven home games are against Boston and Minnesota.
I liked the NY Mag story even though it really didn't break any new ground and got some facts wrong, including stating that Matsui was a free agent after this season. I was also reminded about Madden bio of George. Is he getting full access or at least some honest answers?
Hughes is going to become an ace. I really believe it. I think next year he will make legitimate contributions. I'm not sure about Kennedy, but I hope they hold onto him. He took a few steps back this year but he still has lots of talent and it would be a mistake to trade away a young pitcher, partly out of emotion.
The Steinbrenners clearly want Cashman back and I think he will come back. But, I also think Cashman has made more than a couple of mistakes and I am not entirely comfortable with Cashman having complete control in large part because of his spectacular mistakes.
I admit that I was all wrong on the Rays, believing they would fall apart over the summer. I was right on the Yankees not having enough to make the playoffs, especially once Hughes and Kennedy failed, Posada and Matsui were hurt and all the other injuries.
The NY Mag article reminded my of Steinbrenner's threatened cancellation of employee dental insurance. A friend was working in the front office at the time and he went to the dentist every day for a couple of weeks getting 10 years worth of work done in anticipation of the dental plan being eliminated over the winter. The guy was in agony from all the drilling, root canals, etc.
Bob, you should become executive director of the HOF. You would love Cooperstown. It is a great little village, especially if you have a vacation spot somewhere south for when the snows come.
Jim - I interviewed for the HOF presidency when Don Marr got the job in the mid-nineties. Then again, considering the way that Don and Dale Petroskey were treated upon their departure by the non-baseball members of the board, I should be glad that I did not get it.
At the time, Bowie Kuhn was a board member and in a phone call BK said that he'd support my candidacy. He was lying, as he actually was supporting Marr, who he knew from other MLB work.
I lone mixing some of your favorite subjects into one comment!!!
Oh, Bob, imagine what you could do as HOF prez? First order of business would be moving BK's plaque into a back hallway closet. Next, changing the ludicrous voting system.
I read that when BK's law firm went belly up and declared bankruptcy, there were many unhappy campers that went after him. Somehow that fact was omitted from the flowering praise heaped on him over the past year.