I was chatting with Johnny Damon yesterday, and we were discussing the Yankees' surprisingly impotent offense. You know, the offense that reared its ugly head once more last night, in yet another brutal loss to the Red Sox.
The Yankees entered last night having scored 635 runs for the season _ it's now 638, through 132 games _ and Damon said, "I wonder if I've ever played on a team that scored fewer runs for the season."
Off to baseball-reference.com (linked on the left) I went. Damon has played on worse offensive teams. But it has been a while. These Yankees are on a pace to score 783 runs. Here is how Damon's teams have done, going back to his first full big-league season in 1996.
2007 Yankees - 968 runs
2006 Yankees - 930
2005 Red Sox - 910
2004 Red Sox - 949
2003 Red Sox - 961
2002 Red Sox - 859
2001 A's - 884
2000 Royals - 879
1999 Royals - 856
1998 Royals - 714
1997 Royals - 747
1996 Royals - 746
Here is what went through my brain, as I complied these numbers: "1) Wow, Damon has really been on some superb offensive teams; 2) Well, to be more precise, it's not like he's just a bystander. He often has been a primary reason for teams' offensive excellence."
Anyhoo, when the Yankees put this team together, they figured they could surpass the 900 mark yet again. Why not? Any veteran attrition would be covered by growth from Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera and Shelley Duncan, right?
That they're on target to not even reach 800 runs is the story of their season. And to put it in perspective, let's say they had the 1999 Royals' offense. As you can see here, that club featured Damon in leftfield, AL Rookie of the Year Carlos Beltran in center, the very good Jermaine Dye in right, the decent Joe Randa at third base and a healthy Mike Sweeney at first base. It also gave a ton of plate appearances to catcher Chad Kreuter, shortstop Rey Sanchez and designated hitter Jeremy Giambi, all of whom proved well below avearge, as was highly-regarded second baseman Carlos Febles.
Through 132 games, those '99 Royals had scored 709 runs but allowed 761, resulting in a brutal, 51-81 record (thanks to Retrosheet, also linked on the left). So what if these Yankees _ who, just so we're clear, possess far more talent the '99 Royals _ had scored 709 runs, rather than their actual 638, and given up their actual 603?
Using the Pythagorean winning percentage, detailed in the middle of this item, we see that with a run differential of 709-630, the Yankees should have put up a .580 winning percentage, which computes to 77-55 after 132 games.
And that is exactly the Red Sox's record at the moment. So these Yankees didn't even need to live up to their standards of 2006 and 2007. An offense as good as the '99 Royals', a team that finished at 64-97, would have dragged the Yankees into a tie for the American League wild card.
Here is my column from last night's game. I thought Joe Girardi had interesting things to say about his dugout demeanor, and about the specter of being the guy who, in his first year on the job, ended the Yankees' 13-year playoff streak.
Here is a news story I wrote about visiting Major League Baseball's "command center" for instant replay.
And here is the evidence that Hank Steinbrenner actually attended a Yankees game. It's difficult to take seriously Hank's vows of "a lot going on this offseason," since his role is actually quite minimal.
"The demons of the past," Manuel said. "The rascals that have been hanging around us for a whole year. We have to face that. Every time we lose a game like Tuesday night, we're reminded of that. So we've got to face it, confront it, deal with it and move on."
How amazing is that? Isn't that like, a million times healthier than Willie Randolph's, "I swear, we're not thinking about it" nonsense?
We discussed all the way back here, thanks to a reader named Chuck. And now Manuel agrees with us.
AL
Tampa Bay (1) vs. White Sox (3)
Angels (2) vs. Boston (4)
NL
Cubs (1) vs. Arizona (3)
Mets (2) vs. Milwaukee (4)
I'll be at the Red Sox-Yankees finale today, so since I won't be running around, I hope to post more often than I have this week. Have a great day.
Comments (23)
Hey Ken.
On a night when Santana just wasn't his dominant ACE, the Mets and Carlos Delgado bailed him out. Yankees look like they're 'playing out the string.'
Oh, Gary Cohen's call of the 8th inning was the best of the season.
~H
Check out this NYT story about Sarasota Florida's huge effort to lure the Red Sox spring training operation, which is currently in Fort Myers. Sarasota might even build a replica of Fenway.
Here's the link: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/28/sports/baseball/28sarasota.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Pettitte couldn’t get out of the fifth inning the other night. Ponson couldn’t get out of the fifth inning last night. Robertson throws 95 mph but can’t hit his spots, not unlike Scott Proctor, who also threw hard and got hit hard. Maybe Robertson isn’t going to make it like I thought he was?
Pettitte has now thrown several horrible games. You can’t sniff at his wins, but I don’t think the Yankees can count on him. The Yankees desperately need a No. 1 starter. I think Hughes is going to be good. I haven’t given up on Kennedy. Zambrano? I’m not counting on him. Rasner? He’s only a starter in a year like this one. Wang will return and be effective for many years. Ramirez? Much too reliant on his change. When he can’t set it up, he’s toast. Bringing in Ramirez is rolling the dice more than usual with a pitcher. Marte? I like him but not for $6 million a year. Veras? He’s a keeper, but might not be the workhouse Girardi wants him to be.
Pettitte’s younger than Mussina by several years. But, Mussina is clearly more effective. I’m starting to really believe the Yankees should part ways with Pettitte. Devote the $16 million annual salary toward trying to bring in a legitimate No. 1. I support what Cashman is trying to do, but it’s tough to take the pitching situation right now and it cannot be allowed to continue in 2009.
Ken, let me beat you to the punch: I know the real problem this year has been the offense, not the pitching. That said, there is a still a need for a No. 1.
You made a strong case that the Yankees would be in the thick of the playoff race if the offense just hummed a little bit more.
Kevin Long is a hard worker and is well liked, but I wonder if he will be able to survive after this year. I expect a couple of coaches to be let go and for a remaking of the offense. I would think Giambi would be gone, but the $5 million buyout is lurking. However, there is no way the Yankees are going to pay him $22 million next year so is a two year deal on the horizon for him?
Oh, and Ken, sorry for repeatedly calling Cot's Baseball Contracts, Colt's yesterday.
I didn't even notice the Cot-Colt thing, Jim. Long is safe. He is in the first year of a 3-year deal. The players seem to still like him.
I think Giambi is gone, given the presence of so many other potential 1B-DH types still being here (Damon, Matsui, Posada).
But, as you know, those personnel decisons/predictions are constantly evolving, as more info comes in. We've got a month of info left.
Right now the Yankees rotation in 2009 is Wang, Joba and 3 open spots. Either Pettitte or Moose will be back, maybe both. I can't count on Hughes and/or Kennedy at the the moment. And I expect them to make a run for Sabathia.
For some unknown reason, Charlie Manuel decided not to bring in Brad Lidge with 2 outs and no one on in the 8th inning to face Delgado.That was a total brain lock by Charlie Manuel. We saw what happen after that.
If you notice what Hank said, he used the word "they" instead of "we" when he said they suck.
Looks like McCain has made his choice for veep and will announced his choice on Friday in Dayton, Ohio.
Ken, in your link with the Mets/Rangers series (I wont mention what I said about Castillo) you said Peterson didn't deserve to get fired. He may not have deserved it, but I think its a good thing that he did. It seems like its benefited the starters but not the relievers. (Though Santana is always better in the summer)
I dont think its fair to say not making the playoffs will be part of Girardi's legacy. As you've stated 1000 times, the plan was to not win at all costs this year. I think much like when he managed the Marlins, he got a lot out of his team before they crumpled. Any team that got riddled by injuries like the Yanks did would have probably wilted. And just because they have the highest salary, doesn't mean they had a great starting point. A lot of the high salaried players were on the back end of their contract, when you know you're not going to get a lot in return.
As for the Mets...I really think you can throw away the "perceived" toughness. I'd say the game Tuesday night was the worst loss of the season, except they've had a million of those. Then their Ace gives them a pedestrian performance and the Phillies have a lead. A SOFT team does not bounce back. If the Mets finish the job, Jerry Manuel gets my MOY vote. He is the anti-Willie.
And the better and grittier the Mets play (though I'm still thinking Schneider should have been on 2nd on his 8th inning hit, though they never showed how he ran to first) the less and less of a chance Willie will have to manage again. I hope he does because I like him a lot, but I wouldn't hire him.
BTW, love the name-dropping link though its not really name-dropping since it is your job. Unless you saw him at the golf course or CVS.
Interesting stat last night on SNY. Fernando (My New Boy) Tatis has a lower batting average in the 7th inning and beyond than in the first 6 innings. Made me sad ;(
But also made me realize how misleading stats could be. Because his BA wasn't good but he has been so clutch no matter what those #'s say.
i think it's time to stop harping on willie randolph. for better or worse, the guy is gone and jerry manuel. can we move on, please?
I have no doubt that Hughes will be in the 2009 rotation. I am not holding my breath for Sabathia. I don't think he is coming east. He doesn't want to play here and will get plenty of money from a west coast team. Mussina will be back. I think its 60-40 in favor of Pettitte coming back.
CC is crazy if he goes back to the A.L. If Milwaukee offers him something close to another team, I'd take it. I always thought Jeff Weaver was insane to leave the Cards for more money. Sometimes a great career is more important than money, especially when you have more than enough.
Sorry Steve, but I think its hard to move past Willie. He managed this same group of guys that Manuel did and sometimes the urge to compare is there for me. At least I'm not talking politics!! (Yet)
CC is going to the west coast. He is fro CA. He wants to play there. The Brewers will not retain him.
Richie, who are voting for?
Ken, did you see this? "In a bombshell announcement in the world of sports journalism, star columnist Jay Mariotti has abruptly resigned from the Chicago Sun-Times." He said newspapers are "dying."
Here is the link to the story: http://cbs2chicago.com/sports/jay.mariotti.quits.2.803995.html
Jim, the Padres and A's are not going to pay Sabathia . The Giants have Barry Zito and his contract and I doubt that the Giants will pay what Sabathia wants. The Angels have John Lackey to re-sign to a new contract. If they sign Sabathia, then Lackey would want what Sabathia would get. Frank McCourt is ac heap owner. The Dodgers are going to try to re-sign Manny first before they go after Sabathia. All this talk about Sabathia wanting to play on the West coast is myth. If the Yanks offer Sabathia the most money, is Sabathia going to turn it down/ I doubt it. I heard that Hughes and/or Kennedy will not be call-up when the rosters expand on September 1st if they don't pitch better at Triple AAA.
Somewhere in Chicago, Ozzie Guillen had a party when news broke that Jay Mariotti has resigned from the Chicago Sun-Times. Guillen and Mariotti can't stand each other.
Jim no one will miss Mariotti he sucks. He actually makes Matthews look like a genius, and that's saying a lot. As far as CC if the Dodgers offer him the money he goes west, the Angels really don't need him and the padres can afford him and why would he go to the Giants or A's, so big money teams like the yankees have a shot at him, but I bet since he's so popular in Milwaukee they offer him what they need to to get him to stay. The money they make by contending (and winning?) the division next year will make up for his salary. They sell out nearly every game now.
I think its best Andy P. moves on. Something is wrong with him and he knows it and is trying to pitch through it, so he will quit and Moose will make the #3 returning man in the rotation and its Cashman's job to find 2 more.
I meant to say the padres can't afford him. And Mariotti also makes Lupica look good as well as Matthews, let him take his hatchet to whatever website wants to waste money on his lack of talent (probably ESPN).
Loved the Manuel quote - it appears he has performed an exorcism on the team - has Carlos Delgado become Pedro Cerrano from "Major League"?
Dennis, it is not "myth" that Sabathia wants to go West. I have reported it, and I do not report mythology. I am confident in my sourcing.
Richie, I agree on Peterson - while I think he did a great job during his time as Mets coach, it's not apparent that people had simply tired of his personality. He definitely wears people out.
Bob what quote? Did the Mets bring back Kaz Matsui to inspire Delgado?? I cant believe Cerrano was the President on 24. Jobu, if you no work for me now, I'm dine with u! What a movie! Though ML3 was perhaps the worst movie of all time.
CC may want to go west, but I bet he goes where the money is. I think it would be a mistake for him to take 130 million from the Yanks or Angels if he can get 120 from the Dodgers or Brewers. I'm just making up money figures but my point is he should stay in the N.L. and the way he's pitching, stay with the Brewers. They have possibly the best fans in baseball there. I had the 2006 MLB package and they cheered Fielder even though he struck out like his first 9 at bats. They loved Turnbow. They are so passionate and supportive. Not like here.
Richie, Milwaukee will go nowhere near the 9 figures necessary to get Sabathia. Also, re: Girardi and his legacy. I'm not saying it's Girardi's fault. I think he is only minimally to blame. But I do think it's unavoidable that people will think about how he, in his first year, ended the playoff run.
If all stays the same and the Yanks do not make the playoffs, maybe...just maybe Girardi will be remember as the manager who ended the streak of getting bounced in the first round. Gotta look on the bright side for this dismal overpaid team.
Does Ronan Tynam have any career besides singing God Bless America for the Yankees? What ever happened to that cop who used to sing it?
Ken the Girardi point is fair. But I think if he wins a World Series, most people will realize he was not to blame for this season.
I maybe in the minority, but I think he did a very good job this season. A few weeks back I wrote what a lost season this has been and how impressed I was that the Yanks had the record they had.