Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

Fair points, and this made me laugh this morning. Thanks.

There's no arguing with Reyes's numbers, they of course are what they are. I guess I'm saying that if you want to know why he's thought of one way and others are thought of other ways, it goes back to last year, like everything else.

Reyes may be getting into one of those Alex Rodriguez things with the fans (money aside) in that you look at him and think he should be Rickey Henderson every night and he should be taking over every game he's in, and when he doesn't, people think he's overrated (like me, I'll admit). 'Course, memories are familiar things, and people forget how many games Henderson dogged for the Yankees in the 80's (and Lou Piniella called him on it).

Whatever. Thanks for the column.

Giambi continues to surprise. In the last few years it was easy wonder if he had anything left inside; if the fire was still there. He's got something left. It's probably to the Yankees advantage if they can work something out on a one year contract with an option/buyout. Obviously it will have to take into consideration the $5 million buyout he is due for next year.

Posada isn't the answer at first base and I wonder about Jeter's future there, too. Posada would need a tremendous amount of work there. He's worse than Giambi defensively.

Personally, I would like to see the Yankees move Matsui in the offseason if there is any market whatsoever for him. I'd then like to see a youngster take his spot and free up a couple of bucks. I am sure the Yankees will have to send some money with Matsui.

Thanks, Tim N.! Hope you keep stopping by.

Jim, one thing to keep in mind with Matsui: He has a full no-trade clause. Would he use it to stay put with the Yankees? Or to leverage an extension from the interested club? He kept his feelings close to the vest last year when the Yankees spoke with San Francisco about him.

Ken, thanks for the reminder on Matsui's no-trade clause. That makes it problematic to work out a trade, although only a big market team could probably afford him. I wonder what Torre's thoughts about him are at this point and if he would like to be reunited. The Dodgers have some interesting trade possibilities. Of course, who is going near an aging (rapidly aging) player with a bum knee who makes $13 million a year? Hence, the need to ship $$$ and for Matsui to return to the field and continue to hit. If the Yankees can unload him in the off-season, they should - and Cashman knows it. The team has to clear the way for some of the younger outfielders. If they can ship Matsui off somewhere, I think it raises the likelihood of Giambi coming back.

Ken, Reyes numbers have gone back up, but he is still immature. Someone needs to work with him on his instincts on the base paths so that he doesn't get pick off like he did against the Yanks last saturday. Also, assuming Hanley Ramirez wins the fan ballot as the starting shortstop, will Clint Hurdle and the NL have 2 shortstops or 3? Both Miguel Tejada and Reyes both deserve to go base on there stats. Will Tejada being on the Mitchell report and lieing about his age hurt his chances?
Pedro last night looks as close as done as a big time pitcher. He gave up 2 home runs and his ERA is now over 7.00. If the Mets think they can count on Pedro, forget about it. And once again the Mets can't get out of their own way. They win one, then they lose one. The Mets can't keep playing up and down, inconsistant baseball if they want to win the NL East.
Jim, clearly the Yanks need a new 1st Baseman and a new centerfielder because right now the solutions are not on the roster.

It's a strange, strange world. I could never have imagined the day I would defending Giambi but, here goes: Dennis, Giambi has 18 HRs, 52 RBIs, a .403 OBP, .562 SA, .157 OPS+ and is batting a respectable .268 and trending upward. Considering what is available, how can the Yankees upgrade? Give Teixeira a 6-year deal for $140 million. Thank you, but NO. Melky is going through a drought, but he's young. His OPS+ of 75 is disappointing, but again, let's see what the options are. You can't get rid of people when they are playing lousy. There's no return. If you were the GM players would need hourly hotel room rates because they would be on the team in the morning and traded in the middle of games.

Hey Bob - Have you managed to get any information on Murray Chass. Now, I know some people didn't like Murray or his disdain for those who believe in sabermetrics. But, the guy is a J.G. Taylor Spink Award winner and in the HOF. After a pretty distinguished career, to just disappear like he did on short notice and with virtually nothing said about the circumstances surrounding his exit, is discomforting. This is the kind of thing that happened in the Soviet bloc all the time. It's as if Murray never existed. He is now a "non-person." If Ken just disappeared one day without any mention wouldn't we want to know what happened to him, where he is? Murray was around for decades and was still reporting as late as this spring. Is he going to write for anyone else? What do you know, Bob?

Most pathetic stat from last night's Mets game - the Mets are the only team in the majors yet to win a game in which they trail by more than 2 runs. Last night would have been the first, but...

A thought occurred to me as Glaus' second HR touched down in the left field seats - for most teams, if you asked a fan to name the worst loss of the season or the worst loss in franchise history, it would probably come down to a handful of games if not a unanimous choice. For the Mets, however, it's an embarassment of riches. You'd have to break it down by category - regular season or post season? Pre- or post-All Star break? Which decade? Home or road?

Just needed to vent - there, I feel slightly better.

On a semi-related note, I went to a Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs (the Phillies AAA team) game last Sunday and saw Kris Benson in a rehab start. Team officials told us Anna was in the house, but none of us saw her.

Jim, from my understanding, Murray is trying to get another job. He's not at all ready to retire. I think everything else reported out there, particularly on The Big Lead, has been accurate.

Re: Matsui, I wonder if even Torre, Mr. "Loyal to Veterans," would endorse acquiring Matsui, since it's not like Matsui could DH for the Dodgers.

Andy, that sounds like a future blog item: "Which is your worst loss in Mets history?" How did Benson look? Can he help the Phils?

Mr. Gardner has perfect timing. He waits to get his first hit while an offensive outburst is happening and then the crowd -- went -- nuts. Then he stole second and they went a little nuttier. You could feel the crowd's anticipation of him stealing third. And when he attempted it, they looooved it. They've already crushed on Gardner big time. They even started a "Let's go, Brett!" chant last night.

Gardner's a fun little player, but the big story for the Yanks is David Robertson, who I've been calling for them to call up forever. He's had to throw too many pitches, and his curveball hasn't been there consistently yet, but he looks really good. He basically battled the heart of the Mets lineup and the Rangers lineup with nothing but a fastball. And he still pitched well. Once he gets his curveball to drop again, he should be very impressive.

Ken, how 'bout them Rays? Huge comeback against the Sox, whose bullpen is a mess. Delcarmen and Hansen stink. Especially Mr. Delcarmen. Theo is going to have to make a move for a bullpen arm (if he can) and maybe even pick up a bat since Big Papi might not be coming back this year.

The Yankees are in rebuilding mode and few had them making the playoffs this year. The Sox, on the other hand, are already rebuilt and were the presumptive AL champs. So if the Rays are making anyone look bad, it's the Sox.

Dennis, let's talk Beltran again after the long weekend. (Happy Fourth!)

Ken, it is unfortunate that Billy Wagner is summoned to pitch the ninth inning with a three-run lead but not called upon to pitch when the game is tied to pitch to Pujols, Ankiel, and Glaus. This is a prime example of how a useless statistic (as opposed to VORP, BABIP, and, yes, OPS+) may have cost the Mets a baseball game. As everyone knows, just about any MLB pitcher can hold a three-run lead in an inning, even the ninth. However, Wagner is the guy you want in a game late when you cannot afford to give up even one run.

baileywalk, the first link in this post is my column about the Rays/Yankees/Sox. I agree with you - the Sawx are the favorites, and therefore the bigger victim of the Rays' success.

JE, that's a fair question, and one with which I always struggle. I don't consider it a "statistical" issue as much as a "strategic" one. On the road, obviously, you need to protect an extra-inning lead. So do you hold onto your closer until you take a lead? Or do you use your closer to keep the game scoreless, and worry about protecting the lead later? Certainly, last night, I would've rather seen Wagner against that trio over Muniz.

Jim, I'm loooking at the long term when it comes to 1st base and centerfield for the Yanks. Since you like writing about the Yanks minor league farm system, I'll talk about it. We Know Giambi can still hit, but he is a awful defensive player. He's 37 years old now. Would it surprise me if the Yanks decline his option and resign him for 1 year at a reduce saary? No, but he's not the long term solution. With all the money the Yanks have coming off the books at the end of the season, it would not surprise me if the Yanks go after Mark Teixeira. Their's no one in the farm system that is the long term solution at 1st base. I say either Giambi or Teixeira will be the Yanks 1st baseman next year.
Centerfield has been a black hole since Bernie Williams left. The Yanks sign Johnny Damon during the off season in 2005, but now he plays leftfield. I seen Melky play, and I come to the conclusion that he is a good defensive outfielder not great with a great arm. And he is a Ok hitter. Brett Gardner now will get his chance to play. I'll reserve my juglement on Gardner after I see him play a good amout of games. Unlike 1st base their are a couple of other outfielders in the system that the Yanks might bring up. One is Austin Jackson, and the other is Jose Tabata.

Ken, I like Reyes, but dude needs to grow up. He's the Mets most important player and they cant win without him.

But he's thrown two on field tantrums while Manuel has been the manager!! Name me on-field tantrum that any other Met has done in thier career? And even if you can, my point is he's supposed to be a young leader, and unfortunately he kinda is. Part of the Mets overall problem is Reyes attitude. I know he wants to win. I know he cares. And though at times he doesn't hustle, he hustles more than most.

But if Fernando Tatis did what Reyes did, he probably would be out of a job. We all know how great Reyes can be. We just wish Reyes would aspire to be that way. And we wish Mets management would let him know its not ok to act this way. And that hasn't happened because he continually acts in an immature manner.

You are an optimest. I am not a pessimest. I'm a realist. And this guy has been cajoled his whole life. Most athletes are. It's time that stopped. If they ever want the complete package with Reyes...the only way to do it is tough love. The tough is just as important as the love, and the love is just as important as the tough.

I would have benched him after each tantrum. Hurt the short term, help the long term.

Dennis, as Ken has written several times, the Yankees will most likely make Teixeira a take it or leave it offer and then move on. I think it is safe to say the offer will not be for more than 5 years and could be for only four (albeit for a higher annual amount). Giambi is a legitimate possibility while the team addresses other needs.

Granted Teixeira is just 28, but his stats this year are comparable to Giambi's and he is batting only .273 with a SA, OBP and OPS+ lower than Giambi's. Why give him $100+ million? Let the Mets go out on a limb with him. If Cashman goes the take it or leave it route I can live with it. The more I think about it, the more I am convinced the Yankees have to focus on starting pitching. Good pitching stops good hitting, now more than ever.

Melky's OPS+ has been below average every year since his debut. It's hard to argue with stats.

Ken

Benson looked okay in spots. He also got hit around pretty good at times by a lineup that included Kevin Mench, Russ Adams, Hector Luna and a bunch of guys I never heard of before. I think he was throwing in the upper 80s and I'm guessing he was on a pitch count because he only went 4 or 5 innings.

As a Mets fan, I hope he starts for the Phils this weekend.

First, thank goodness Giambi is playing to save his career, hopefully the Yankees don't fall for it.
Second and most important--Tampa is beginning to remind me an awful lot of the 1969 Mets. Think of it--neither team had ever done a thing before. Full of young players and especially good, young pitching. Everything seemed to go the Mets way and everything is going the Rays way. Nobody took the Mets seriously until the series they played against the Cubs (July 7th-10th?), the one where Seaver almost pitched the no-hitter that was broken up by Jim Qualls in the ninth. Nobody has taken the Rays seriously until the last 3 days when they took over first place and pulled away from the mighty Boston Red Sox. The big difference is this--the team the Mets chased, the Cubs, also came out of nowhere and didn't know how to win. The teams the Rays are trying to hold off, the Sox and Yankees, know exactly what they need to do to win things. I'm not saying the Yankees will beat them out for anything, but this type of expereince in September counts for a lot.

Giambi is still a good ball player. I would take him on a two-year contract if I was an American League team. But if I'm the Yanks I move on. Too much history with the guy.

Jim, Good pitching stops good hitting all the time. But as we saw the Yanks lose 2 game against the Rangers by the scores of 2-1 and 3-2, you do need some offense to score and support the pitching. You can't just win 1-0, 2-1 games all the time. And of course the Yanks have struggle in the clutch with RISP led by A-Rod.

Dennis in a 162 game season you aren't going to go 162-0. How many times has a team led the league (or major leagues) in homeruns and not even made the playoffs. With Jeter in the 270s and Cano and Cabrera in the .240s, the team is going to struggle to score runs. But, those players are better than that. You can't react to a couple of games. That's what George S. was famous for doing before he quieted down in recent years.

Ken, a question just struck me (slight bruise)... when was the last time the Yanks and Sox played with neither of them in first place? '93? Thanks.

Oops, forget it. I just checked the link.

Giambi had a .971 OPS in 2006, when he was not playing to save his career. When he's healthy, he hits. Which -- yeah, I'm totally tooting my own horn here, big time -- I said early in the year, when I think both Ken and Jim thought I was a little nuts defending Giambi.

Ken, I thought of a funny scenario today... maybe it's been kicked around elsewhere. But anyway... what if it's Cubs v. Rays in the World Series and the Rays are going up against Piniella, who that organization blames for setting them back a few years with his bullying, unhappiness and inability to develop/work with young players. The youngsters of the Rays beat the vets of the Cubs and make the miserable Cubs fans miserable yet again. Seems like it would be a fun series from a writers' standpoint.

baileywalk, I didn't forget about your statements concerning Giambi. I'm fine with saying I was wrong. I'm not advocating the Yankees sign him and see the downside to it, too. All I am saying is that he is a legitimate possibility if the dollars and years make sense. I don't know how big a player he'll be in the Bonds case. I don't think that should play into the Yankees decision on him. If the Yankees let him go, they have to make up for the power loss somewhere in the lineup.

It was a gentle ribbing at most, Jim. Mostly I wanted to point out that every once in a while I actually get something right. We still have to keep our fingers crossed that he stays healthy.

I really was thinking about what you said. I did think he was done, and Mussina, too. Patience is a virtue. It might make economic sense for the Yankees to keep Giambi in light of his $5 million buyout. If they can negotiate something to take that into account and he does next year what he is doing this year . . .

Keep in mind 2006-Mussina playing for his career-look what he did.
2007-Mussina not playing for his career, look what he did
2008-Mussina playing for his career again--look what he's doing.
Buyers for Giambi and Moose beware--no more than $4 or 5 million per two-year (at the most) contract. Moose should only get one year tops.

Sandy, do you mean $2 - $2.5 million per year for a total of $4 - $5 million or $5 million a year?

Sandy, come on -- Mike Mussina is the model of consistency. He's Mr. 10+ Wins a Year for Seventeen Years Mike Mussina (that's every year but his very first). It's kind of hard to accuse a guy like that of turning it on and off for money. Mike said he wasn't physically right last year, and he was also learning to pitch with a 85-mph fastball. He's learned to do that this year.

Mike Mussina was last truly "great" in 2003. After that, especially in 2004, he's been a physical wreck. His numbers have been all over the place since.

If the Yankees want Mussina back, I don't think he'll take another paycut on his yearly salary total. Nor should he.

It is $5million per year. I'm cynical, when guys really do well in contract years, I get suspicious. Maybe they work out harder in the off season, maybe they concentrate more on the field. Myself, I believe Mussina is close to being washed up ala a guy like Schilling, who even though he was through last year could pitch well on occasion. And he got himself an $8 million contract running his big mouth, even though there was absolutely no market demand for him anywhere. I'm not accusing this on him, but look at Posada last season, it was his career year, was it lucky timing or what?
So, if someone looks at the stats after the season and says "this guy Giambi/Mussina can help us" all I say is be careful.

Bailey, Mike Mussina will never duplicate what he's doing now. I would never be able to match what he could get elsewhere if I was a GM. If I was Cashman, because he's been a model Yankee and a vet, I'd reward him with a one year 6 million contract.

But if I was any other team, I'd offer him $3 mill for one season. I just dont think he has another half season left in him. Which means he will stink the rest of this year, though I kinda hope I'm wrong.

When players are in the walk year of their contract, they work very hard to get a new deal wheither it is with their current team or with a different team. Baseball is a sport that have guarnteed contracts. I think if baseball have no guarnteed contracts like the NFL, players would play more harder. You give these players long term contracts, sometimes they become lazy. Cano is a perfect example of a guy who got a $32 million contract from the Yanks. And what does he do? Cano started out badly hitting under .200.

Dennis, although it is a short history, Cano's M.O. is slow start blazing hot finish.

Thanks for all of the action, everyone. I'm sitting here at the Stadium - after an inning and a half, Yankees trailing, 4-0.

Richie G., I really wouldn't say I'm an optimist. I'd say I'm the realist, as we once again debate your idea of what a "good player" does. Can't we move on and develop our relationship with different topics? ;) Of course, you're right that only Reyes has thrown two tantrums since Manuel took over. But only Reyes has been a consistent force on offense since Manuel took over. If you poll all 30 general managers, all 30 will tell you that the latter trumps the former - especially because Reyes is a likeable guy who apologized immediately for the first tantrum. The second tantrum was just toward himself.

Andy, thanks for the Benson info.

baileywalk, you're right, I thought Giambi was toast back in April. Good call by you. To reiterate, I think the Yankees will take every second they have to make the Giambi decision. It's not an easy call.

Re: Sandy's point on Mussina, the Yankees did think that Mussina showed up out of shape for camp in '07. Baseball Prospectus did a study that showed that players generally do perform above their career norms in their walk years.

But Sandy, you're wrong about Schilling having no other offers last winter. He probably could've signed a two-year, $20-million deal with an NL team like St. Louis. As a matter of fact, the Red Sox's offer was such a lowball offer that Boston was surprised when Schilling accepted it.

"you know who" and I recently wondered who we'd rather have batting leadoff for any team, purely about delivering as a leadoff man should, and regardless of fielding ability - Reyes or Damon, and we agreed on Damon. What say you?

I'd probably go with Damon, TBOC, although it's a tough call. Say hi to YKW for me! Or even better, don't!

Ken, how about baseball take a page from the NFL and make contracts non guarnteed. I know the union will never agree to this. But if you make contracts not guarnteed, it will give players incentive to play harder for a contract. Some baseball players don't seem to play hard partly because they have guarnteed long term contracts.

Dennis, I'm responding to this one only because you're such a loyal reader/commenter. Are you insane? That the NFL doesn't have guaranteed contracts shows what a joke the players' union is there. That is never happening in baseball, and it's an awful idea.

Ken even I dont think the contracts shouldn't be guarenteed! Though of course I would love it.

And we're both on the same page with Reyes probably. If we were talking over a beer instead of quickly typing between breaks in our jobs, we'd communicate better about this. I saw Reyes ground out to second today and I figured he would barely be on my screen when Pujols caught the ball. But instead he was out by a half step. I was so happy!

And I have always been a Reyes supporter. I never would trade him. He's the most valuable Met by far...way more than Wright. I just think he also needs to grow up. Because if he did grow up and lead this club like a mature leader would, the Mets would win more games.

And I certainly agree that its more important to have immense talent than be mature. But to be fair to me, you brought up the topic of being nice to Reyes, and I'm just saying why he should be scrutinized. Also, I wasn't negatively comparing him to the "Warrior" Paul O'Neil. I was simply saying what I thought the publics perception of both were.

My point is make these players earn their paychecks. While the NFL union is weaker than the players union in baseball, NFL players are playing harder because their contracts are not guarnteed.
Meanwhile, maybe Hank should yell and scream after every game. One night after the Yanks score 18 runs against the Rangers, they get shutout tonight by Jon Lester and the Red Sox.
All I can say he theYanks offense is hot and cold. When their hot they score in bunches. When their cold they hit like garbage.

Dennis what you are asking for is, "The Dream." I would LOVE LOVE LOVE it if they went to non-guarenteed salaries and I do think we'd see a more enthusiastic brand of baseball. But it will never ever happen. I mean why would the players give it up? And as much as I dispise Fehr, and Orza, I would agree with them on this one. Our fights with the union have to be logical fights. I'd love to see a salary cap but that wont happen either. Personally, I think both sides are greatly benefiting from this status quo.

Richie G., why do you despise Fehr and Orza? They are close to being geniuses at what they do. Why would you be for a salary cap? It's inherently un-American. Employers should be able to pay their employees whatever they want to and employees should be able to earn every last cent they can get out of their employer. If a city cannot afford a team they shouldn't have one. Revenue sharing, salary caps, redistributed of the luxury tax - it's all socialism. The owners and the players are both awash in money. Good for them.

Jim, I feel badly for going over this again, because Ken and Bob are getting tired of the same ol song. But since you asked...I despise those two because they dont care about the game one bit. The have no problem ruining it as long as their players make extra money. Yes they are great at what they do, but it doesn't mean I have to like it. Sorta like for me, Johnny Cochrane. He was amazing at what he did, but I was ecstatic when he died because it meant more innocent people would live (because he'd stop getting obvious murderers back onto the streets). Now I shouldn't compare Orza and Fehr to Cochrane because they are not endangering my life like Johnny Cochrane. And no, I dont wish any bad health to either of them (or all defense attorneyes, mostly just all of OJ's lawyers)

But I'd like to be able to afford to go to more than three games a year, and I cant in large part because those two are so good at their jobs.

Also, it sucks that the Pirates and Royals can never win the World Series again in our lifetime. Lets see what team Doumit and McClouth are on in five years. I bet its NY, LA, Boston etc. A salary cap would even out the playing field. Just look at football...Green Bay almost made the Super Bowl! Look at hockey, the Penguins made the Stanley Cup!

So that's the answer.

giambi is the salt of the earth. yeah right!

Richie G. we are going around in a circle. I say Fehr and Orza love the game. If they didn't, why would they want to be around it 24/7? If the game goes down the tubes, they lose big time. Why would they want the game to be anything but financially strong and wildly popular? For every less dollar the players earn, the owners earn another dollar. If you think the players are greedy, take a look at the owners.

New stadiums have been substantially financed with tax dollars, allowing the owners to increase revenue streams, sell their teams at huge profits, borrow money to finance other ventures and line their pockets with untold cash. Some owners pocket money from revenue sharing and the luxury tax. The owners have always been creeps. A century after Lincoln freed the slaves, the owners were still clinging to the concept that they could control a player in perpetuity, also known as the reserve clause.

Ticket prices are a direct result of the law of supply and demand. Attendance is at an all time high. Prices are at an all time high. If attendance dropped, so would ticket prices.

Cochrane helped pervert justice. Fehr needs the game to thrive in order for his members to benefit financially. He doesn't operate in a vacuum.

Salary caps smack of socialism. Why do we need to artificially even out the playing field. If KC can't support an MLB franchise, why should it have one? Having a franchise isn't a city's God-given right. Like Bob Tufts, I would have been in favor of strategic contraction.

Richie, every time I'm out, you keep pulling me back in!

How can you say that the Royals and Pirates will never win a World Series when the Marlins won in '03, when the Rockies made it last year with a tiny payroll, and when low-payroll teams like the A's, Twins, Indians and Diamondbacks routinely compete?

And really, you've just got to stop saying the union is the reason that tickets are so expensive. What in the world makes you think that the owners would cut their customers a break, even if the players made less?

OK, I'm gonna put up a new post just to change the subject.

Ken, I was thinking the same thing about small market teams either winning championships or at least competing at a high level. They do it with superior scouting and smart front office moves. The Yankees are spending $200 million and take a look at where they are at in the standings.

I am glad that Girardi and Damon seemed to call out the team last night. This is a funk that is getting tiresome. I do agree with the sentiment that this might merely be a collection of good players and not a championship TEAM. But to look so anemic for more than a couple of games is ridiculous.

Jim, When you spend over $200 million in payroll like the Yanks have, people expect your team to win under any circumstances. Right now, its not working. Girardi has every right to be angry with this team. Same thing with Hank, althought he talk too much to the media. Clearly the offense has been the culpa this season. The offense has been hot and cold. When their hot, they score in bunches. And when their cold, they hit like garbage.

Dennis - Give us 5-10 moves you would make today if you were the GM instead of Brian Cashman.

If I was Yankees GM, this is what I would do. The first thing I would do is look at my roster and see what we need. Looking at this team, there is certainly some spots that need to be shored up. The lineup is not performing and its too relying on lefthanded hitters. A-Rod and Jeter are the only righthanded hitters in the lineup. I would go after a righthanded hitter who can play either first base or the outfield or DH. The starting pitching has been a huge question mark. Injuries and ineffectedness have hurt the rotation. Hughes and Kennedy have been busts, and Wang got hurt not on the mound, but on the base paths. We need pitchers that can throw strikes and eat up innings. A guy like C.C. Sabathia would be nice, but I wouldn't break the bank to get him. I'll give pitchers in the farm system at chance first, but by the time we get to the trade dealine and nothing has work, then i'll make a trade for a starter. The bullpen definitely need some work. Farnsworth and Veras have pitch better of late, but that wouldn't last. We need guys who can throw strikes and not nibble. Another thing the pen needs is a lefthanded. How this team doesn't have a effected lefthanded reliver is beyond me.