For some reason _ perhaps Steve from South Amboy can shed some light on this _ I don't suffer fools gladly. I'm not able to just shrug off what I perceive as ignorance by others.
So these live chats we're doing now at Newsday.com have presented a challenge, in that effect. We had another one yesterday _ thanks to Jim, Bob T., Dennis, J-Rock and Steve for checking in _ and I was taken aback by the number of people who asked something to the effect of, "Should the Mets start rebuilding toward next year?" I just re-counted, in the chat below. There were six questions built around that theme.
Look, I know the Mets have been "inconsistant," as Joe Morgan would put it, and SOFT, as Dennis would put it, and disappointing and head-scratching and aggravating and everything else. But today, with 79 games left to play, they sit three and a half games behind the Phillies in the NL East. Even if they lost the remaining six games on this road trip, it would still be too early to throw in the towel.
And I don't think they're going to lose the remaining six games on this trip. Their pitching is too good. Maybe their offense is too bad to pull off a sustained winning streak. I'm betting that enough pieces click, shortly enough, to put together some sort of positive stretch. Jerry Manuel showed a nice touch last night by starting Ramon Castro over Brian Schneider at catcher, and then seeing Castro produce a couple of big hits.
I thought Carlos Delgado's game last night was more encouraging than last Friday's 9-RBI game. First, because Delgado has performed so poorly at night. Second, because, the way he's been struggling, a few hits to the opposite field might speak more to his swing than a few homers he pulls off mediocre right-handed pitchers.
Getting back to the main point, the Mets play in the National League, where the Rockies began their 2007 season with a 76-72 record before turning it on to make the World Series. Right now, their record notwithstanding, the Mets are hanging in there in the NL, where you don't need to be great. You just need to occasionally pitch well.
Finally, if they actually decided to bail, how much would it benefit them? They're not trading Jose Reyes, and I think we all need to calm down about him. As Joel Sherman pointed out yesterday, how come Paul O'Neill was regarded as a "warrior," but Reyes is a big baby every time he expresses disappointment or frustration? They're not trading Carlos Beltran, either.
Whom could they trade that would actually bring back value? I guess Billy Wagner. But then you're giving up on next year, too. Oliver Perez? He could bring back a second-tier prospect, perhaps. Delgado? The Mets would have to pay most, if not all, of the freight on him.
So these are your Mets, Mets fans, and love them or hate them (more the latter, understandably), they're going to make a run at it. You might as well enjoy the ride.
Interestingly, the most famous, questionably timed surrender in baseball history came when the 1997 White Sox pulled off what's now known as the "White Flag Trade." All of the details are here. As you can see, the White Sox were three and a half games behind the Indians in the AL Central, precisely where the Mets are now, when they gave up on the season. Their fans and the remaining players were devastated.
The trade did pay off down the line, though, when Keith Foulke and Bob Howry played significant roles on the 2000 White Sox, who won the AL Central. And that team was managed by...yes, Jerry Manuel.
I do think this part of it is interesting, however: A-Rod is now so settled in with the Yankees that a story like this can be essentially shrugged off and laughed at. A-Rod may have something to prove to Yankees fans about his October play, but he has proven that he can play through potential distractions such as this.
Meanwhile, the Yankees just can't hit. If you're really going to be upset when the Yankees miss the playoffs this year, you should fault Brian Cashman for overestimaing his offense more than relying too much on the young pitchers. It's not surprising that the young pitchers haven't all excelled. It is surprising how little the Yankees have produced offensively.
Comments (38)
Ken, I'm glad you are staying away from the A-Rod story. Who knows if any of it is true and who cares? As long as he produces on the field, what he does after hours is his business - and maybe that of his wife. Sometimes the tabloids get it right. Often they are wrong, wrong, wrong.
I'm with you on the Mets. While I am no fan of the team, I do think they are going to be "there" in October. The fact they are this close to first place after what they have been through is a testament to their staying power and shows how lousy the division really is.
Concerning Cashman and the offense, I don't blame him. Cano and Cabrera are really having sub-par years. If even one of them was doing better, the team would be much improved. I'm starting to wonder about Cabrera. Maybe the team should have sold high. I had always wished he had more power, but his overall offensive decline is surprising.
Ken, the Mets have not show me or anyone else so far that they can make a run. I know they they play in the National League that is terrble and the NL East is there for the taking. But at some point the Mets can't keep playing inconsistant, up and down baseball. Their pitching has been up and down. And their offense is hit or miss just like the Yanks.
A-Rod is playing with fire with his personal life. At some point Cynthia will put her foot down and tell A-Rod "enough is enough" and file for divorce. A-Rod hanging out with Madonna may or may not be the last straw for Cynthia.
The Yanks could have easly won Monday and last night against if they have score more runs. I'll throw out sunday's game against the Mets because for some reason Oilver Perez pitches well against the Yanks. But the last 2 games against the Rangers, they should have won. If you can't scroe more than 2 runs against a Rangers pitching staff that stinks, shame on you.
In a 162 game season there are going to be periods of offensive droughts. No reason to panic. Cano had two hits last night. That's a good sign. He's up to .245. That's a good sign. He's too good of a player not to hit. The Yankees will be fine. No reason to panic.
Well, you have upgraded today by referencing Joel over GLB. Score one for Dave Davidoff.
And you also scored points by referring to the White Flag Trade without the accompanying (and extremely lame) story told 10 million times by Milli Quinilli, whose "big part" in that drama was to "break the news" to Robin Ventura when he walked into the clubhouse.
I'm surprised Milli hasn't edited the Wikipedia entry to make himself part of the transaction.
Even if Madonna is only serenading A-Rod with songs from Evita, I love this re-incarnation of DiMaggio and Marylin Monroe. While very bad and sad for A-Rod's and Madonna's marriages and families, it blows away the shock value for any other A-Rod scandal. But who cares? Maybe A-Rod will play better now. But, like I said, who cares?
Ken, as much as I hate to admit it, the Amazins are probably a .500 or slightly above .500 team in their current incarnation. The past year-plus of play ought not be viewed as an aberration.
Perhaps the question should not be why the Mets are doing so poorly as opposed to why the Phillies have not yet opened up a larger lead within the division. Philadelphia has been unlucky in recent weeks and their Pythag record indicates that they should be four games better.
Having said that, the Mets will probably be close enough at the trading deadline to either the top of the NL East or the wildcard so that a sell-off including Beltran, Wagner, and/or Church will not take place.
Ken I agree with you the Mets have few Major League chips that they would be willing to trade.
Reyes is considered a baby and O'Neil a warrior for a few reasons. But the biggest reason is O'Neill won championships. Also, there is a different kind of pouting that Jose does that just turns you off. Personally, I love fire and enthusiasm, but I also like someone handling losing. I remember covering a Mets Yankee game on a Sunday night and going into the Mets clubhouse after they won. Then I went to the Yankee clubhouse pretty late and tried to get an interview. I saw O'Neill and I was like, uh oh. Me: He Paul can I get an interview? O'Neill: No! (As he walks quickly past me) I thought it was hilarious how much of a baby his was.
As for the Mets...I just dont see it. It's an intangable. They are lucky to be only 3 1/2 games back and that # doesn't bother me at all. It's just not one player has stepped up. They haven't shown any indication that they can get past last year. I wouldn't give up on the season, but I'd bet against them.
Richie, for whom did you work as a reporter?
And as for the biggest difference between O'Neill and Reyes...does that mean if Beltran had taken Adam Wainwright deep back in '06, then all of Reyes' actions now would be excusable?
M-Crash, welcome back! I might have to start posting an "M-Crash to English" dictionary, but then I'd really get in trouble.
The 2 biggest problems with the Mets are: they are fundamentally stupid, not dumb--they just don't know what to do and when and how to do it. That is management's fault. Second there isn't one guy on that team that is a winner. Wagner would love to be but when the time to show up in a big game comes, Billy isn't there--his entire career. Wright may turn out to be one, but he hasn't learned how yet. The rest of them, nah. Well, maybe Pedro, in any case he's really the only thing close to what they need.
In any case, the way things are falling into place right now, the Phillies need a lot of pitching, Howard and Rollins aren't hitting, Utley and Burrell aren't hitting like they did earlier and if that continues, the Mets certainly have a great shot at taking the division and maybe getting to the League Championship series.
Can someone please tell me what exactly was Girardi doing last night in the 9th inning?
With the tying run on base and no one out, why not bunt if he was going to allow Melky, who has been dreadful lately, to hit, or even PH Melky for Jeter?
Ken -
When someone asks me who the three most famous people who have attended UM, I say Madonna, Lucy Liu and Jeff Salinger. Stephanie Izard, this year's winner of Top Chef, comes in a close fourth.
JRock
The beauty of all of this is that if, somehow, The Mets win 12 or 13 in a row then you will have all kinds of people jumping on the Mets bandwagon. Minaya will be a candidate for GM of the year and Russo will proclaim Manuel as one of the great managers of all time!
Agreed, Jeff - that was a brutal decision by Girardi.
JRock, touche.
Sandy, I'd love to know what it takes to be anointed "a winner." Clay Bellinger owns two World Series rings. Is he "a winner"? Are Ernie Banks, Rod Carew and Don Mattingly losers because they never competed in a World Series?
Sandy, the Mets lack the gamers that the Phillies have. While the Mets have better pitching than the Phillies, the Phillies have a lot of players that play hard and get down and dirty. The Mets don't seem to respond when face with adversity while the Phillies do.
As Joel Sherman pointed out yesterday, how come Paul O'Neill was regarded as a "warrior," but Reyes is a big baby every time he expresses disappointment or frustration?
Ummm... because O'Neill occasionally won something, wasn't selfish, and didn't climb into a funk-filled hole when his team really needed him. He showed up and played hard every at-bat. Reyes went AWOL for half the year last year (the half where he was really needed) because his manager hurt his itty bitty feelings. Not what one would expect for someone who many in the media pre-ordained to go to Cooperstown.
Reyes is a good ballplayer, but terribly, terribly overrated. If "potential greatness" was a stat, he'd be among the league leaders. But there comes a point where you've got to put it on the field, day after day after day.
Calling Don Mattingly a loser is only useful when comparing him to Keith Hernandez.... ;-) (Sorry, guys, but I couldn't resist!)
Dennis, the Phillies are not "gamers". Rollins, Utley, Howard, and Burrell are very talented ballplayers, plain and simple. If grittiness was so critical to a team's success, then they would not have forgotten how to play the game during last year's NLDS, when the Rox thoroughly embarrassed them.
Ken, good column on the mid-season awards. If the Yankees ever do sign the 33-year old Japanese pitcher they are scouting it will be mind boggling in light of the fact Cashman went into this year with such a shaky rotation when vets (much younger than 33) were available as a stopgap measure.
I heard Stuart Sternberg interviewed this morning on WFAN. He's downplaying expectations of a playoff appearance and said he doesn't think the Rays will make it. I think it's said for obvious reasons. The guy is impressive and is on top of every aspect of the club. His base of knowledge is outstanding.
Girardi has had a few lapses this season. Hard to figure out what exactly he is thinking in those situations.
Buster Olney was brutally pessimistic this morning about the Yankees. Every dynasty comes to an end. Teams are usually hesitant to pull the plug on veterans (sometimes for contractual reasons) until the dynasty is toast, but I don't know what the Yankees could be doing right now other than what they are doing. Did he want them to follow the Mets model or do what Cashman is doing. This year is a necessary evil, so to speak.
Ken it's simple show up, play the game, produce, don't whine, project an attitude that says "I can do it." A winner is someone who succeeds in life--now, if you say a major league baseball player has already succeeded in life, you are also right there. But some succeed more than others. And some are more major league than others. Jose Canseco played for winners, but he's a loser. Don Mattingley will always be a winner in my book, it's not his fault George screwed the Yankees up. In fact, that is what made me appreciate those Yankees more. While the Mets were dancing and prancing and taking curtain calls up 10 and 12 runs a game at the time, the Yankees were losing, but had a lot more class in a real tough time than most teams (especially those Mets) ever have.
JE, where are the Mets "gamers" last year and so far this year? Something is missing on this Mets team. Since June of last year, the Mets cannot get out of their own way.
Jim, what were Sternberg's reasons for being down on the Rays? Hopefully, it did not come down to being able to perform in "pressure" situations in August and September.
Regarding Buster Olney's analysis, would you agree that Yankee management is a little too caught up in the youth movement mentality? Everyone cites the aborted attempt to acquire Johan, but Haren, Bedard, and Blanton were also available. None of those pitchers would have required a long-term commitment and the Yankees almost certainly had the prospects in the system to satisfy Beane and Bavasi.
Sandy, I noted earlier that the Mets are probably just a .500ish team. The Phillies have a better lineup and, without Pedro being Pedro, then the Mets pitching staff is not considerably superior.
Sternberg never gave any specific reasons but the conversation pointed to the fact that the Rays are young and first half performances are not an indicator of the second half, per se. He said four teams that were in playoff position at the break last year didn't make it. When he said the Rays weren't going to make it he was matter of fact. When one of the hosts said he thought they would, Sternberg told him to prepare to be disappointed. He sounded up on the Rays in general - very up, but just didn't think they were "there" yet.
Angelos would have never dealt Bedard to NY. I don't think the Yankees are too caught up in the youth movement. If they had shipped three highly regarded young players to the Twins for Santana and committed $150 million (I think they would have overpaid), Cashman, ownership and us the fans would have been sick to our stomachs with a 7-7 record.
Jim, my bad. I said Bavasi by mistake. Still, Beane would not have hesitated to trade with Cashman.
By the way, Matsuzaka has a 9-1 record going into tonight's game. What does that tell us? Santana's 7-7 is a byproduct of the Mets ineffectiveness at the plate, just as the Red Sox offense keeps bailing out Dice-K. Not to rehash the whole Santana argument, but the question is whether he has been good or great, not whether he sucks.
Thanks for elaborating on Sternberg. Of course, he may be correct, but then again, few of us back in '05 thought that the "inexperienced" ChiSox were going to hold on to their division lead. In all likelihood, if the Red Sox win the division, and they probably will, then they will have earned the title by playing much better in the second half.
On Santana - Cabrera and Cano have had lackluster first halves. Kennedy has bombed out so far. Hughes has done nothing. All of that taken into consideration, I'm glad the Yankees didn't commit long term and tied up a tremendous amount of money getting him. He might win the Cy Young for the Mets and take them to a World Series title, but I am shell-shocked still from the Pavano and Farnsworth debacles, and they were for a lot less years and money. Agreed, Santana is a different pitcher, but I just don't favor long term mega contracts for pitchers. Too many clubs have been burned.
But you do agree that a trade for any of Oakland's pitchers would have made more sense? True, Haren cost the D-backs a pretty penny in terms of prospects but the trade appears to have worked out for both teams. And Blanton would have cost the Yankees considerably less.
It is unfortunate that Yankee fans bought management's PR campaign during the offseason and drank the Kennedy Kool-Aid, causing them to scream bloody murder anytime word got out that Hughes AND Kennedy were being sought by other teams in exchange for big-name pitchers.
Thanks for reading, Jim.
JE, regarding the pitchers you mentioned: As Jim noted, Angelos instructed MacPhail that he couldn't trade Bedard within the AL East. You saw the kind of package that Arizona gave up for Haren - I don't think the Yankees' system is deep enough to sustain that kind of hit. And I don't think Beane would've given Blanton to the Yankees without getting Hughes in return.
I understand your point, and I agree - Cashman has been ultra-conservative. But I think times have changed so much even from when Stick Michael built the '96-'01 team. Contracts are larger than ever, despite the fact that we continually see guys not living up to shoe deals. And playing in New York is harder than ever, due to the exploding popularity of baseball that brings in more media and scrutiny. It makes a great deal of sense to try to develop their own, both because they're cheaper and because those kids "grow up" seeing what it's like to be a Yankee, by attending spring training.
Sandy and Tim N., with all due respect, your definitions for "winner" are pretty vague. Paul O'Neill used to practice his swing in the outfield. Does that define "focus"? Or "putting it on the field"? Reyes has his problems, obviously, but the guy has a 120 OPS+ right now. Most teams, including the Phillies, would gladly take that from their shortstop, especially given Reyes' team-friendly contract.
JE: the Mets lineup as currently constituted should not be a .500ish team. Wright, Reyes and Beltran should be All-Star caliber players equal to Utley, Burrell and Rollins at least. Beltran is a complete joke. Right now the Phillies pitching is awful, the only reliable starter they have is Hamels, Myers just got sent to the minors yesterday. They are hoping that Benson can be useful to them in 2 weeks. At least the Mets have 2 1/2 (Santana, Maine and Perez) with Pelfrey coming on. I'll allow the Mets their injuries as part of the mediocre record. Now. my favorite NL team is the Phillies, so admitting they might not have the team to beat out the Mets is pretty hard, especially since I despise the Mets.
Ken: I really don't know how much more I can define winner than what I already said. Most of the Mets don't even project an attitude that they care, especially Delgado and Beltran.
I guess you're saying, with all due respect, that if stats are more important than wins, then Reyes is your man.
But on the stat of PLPGWTNHM (Performed at level of potential greatness when team needed him most) I think, off of last year, that Reyes gets about a zero. But that OPS+ is imporatant, too.
Tim, it is quite amusing when those who are scared of advanced statistics like VORP and OPS+ feel free to judge a player by other statistics such as a pitcher's won-loss record or runs batted in, numbers that are considerably more imperfect. And don't get me wrong: I am no math major. However, I don't instinctively turn my back on a statistic just because it's new to me.
Sandy, when you field a lineup for part of the season that has from 5-8, Delgado, Tatis, Chavez, and Schneider, what should we expect?
How is Beltran a complete joke? Just because he is the Mark Bavaro of baseball (i.e., quieter than a silent film) doesn't mean that he is a bust. The guy is no superstar but his numbers this year are good (.266/.368/.471) do not deviate very much from previous seasons. Compare with Jeter (.280/.340/.388) or Abreu (.283/.351/.454). Remember too that he has Delgado hitting behind him, so he doesn't get very many meaty pitches.
Reyes' tantrums notwithstanding, he is not doing poorly at the plate (.291/.352/.474). Wright's numbers are improving (.288/.387/.529).
Still, the bottom of the lineup is weak and I would argue that Church is more valuable to the team hitting second as opposed to sixth.
Sandy, the Mets pitching is not that bad -- Ollie's shakiness notwithstanding -- but the defense is underperforming. Whether you look at Revised Zone Rating (RZR) or infield errors committed, it is clear that the pitchers are not getting help by the infield, save for Brian Schneider's ability to throw out would-be basestealers.
Philadelphia's pitching is mediocre -- you are correct about Hamels being the only good starter -- but not awful either.
By the way, in case anyone is still online, check this out:
http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/07/your-2008-yankees-not-magical-enough.html
FJM goes off on Buster Olney for accusing this year's Yankees of not possessing "aura" or "mystique". It's pretty funny.
JE - I think it must have been a slow day for Buster. He was out in leftfield on this one. Time doesn't stand still. I think Cashman sees the team he has and doesn't want to perpetuate it. Throwing money at "names" and merely collecting players isn't the answer. Just look at the Mets. Cashman is doing what he has to do. There really isn't a viable alternative if the team wants to be competitive over the long haul. I expect the Yankees to be involved in the free agent market and perhaps swing a big trade, but I am glad the days are gone when the farm system was allowed to go barren.
JE: For what he is being paid, Beltran is a complete joke. He's a clean-up or 3 hitter and you are comparing him to 2s and Abreu. Like I said, I will give the Mets injuries as an excuse for their current record, and Schneider isn't that bad, give him a chance. Delgado is washed up, but he still doesn't give a crap which makes things even worse. Reyes' problems aren't at the plate, it's that he doesn't know how to play the game overall, he doesn't know when to steal, he's a lousy defensive player and his attitude needs to improve.
It's July now, the Yankees usually start making a run this month, if they don't, well we had since 1996, we'll give you one. If they do, they've got a good shot at a wild-card, depending on the Rays falling apart or not. Everyone says they will, I'm not so sure.
Ken I worked at a lot of places you never heard of. Most of my sports work came from WMBC-Channel 63 in NJ. I also worked in news and some sports at LI News Tonight, which is the best internship if you want to be a TV reporter or videographer. I was one of the teachers there that trained students. I also worked strictly news at ABC-WUTR in Utica. I used to work for Minorleaguebaseball.com (thank you for introducing me to Dan Uggla!!) and the worst magazine ever, cardplayer during the 2006 World Series of Poker. If you have any poker questions, let me know. Phil Hellmuth is really that way btw.
And yes, I think if Beltran takes Wainright deep and the Mets beat the Tigers (big IF) then Reyes would not be perceived as badly as he is right now. But for the record, I said I think thats why they are perceived differently. I felt O'Neill was a bit of a baby anyways...though I did like him.
The Mets should try to win it this year since I doubt they could repeat 2004 and make a Kazmir for Zambrano trade even if they want to. But I don't think the will make the playoffs. They have been under .500 for 190 games now. But more importantly they don't hustle. Phil Mushnick pointed out recently that in the first game of the year Luis Castillo, with a new $32 million contract, doesn't run when he's on first when a double is it with two outs. The game following Willie Randolph's firing, Jose Reyes doesn't run hard. I don't
care about silly things like arm pumping, long hair, beards, salaries. But for the love on Mike, hustle when you are on the field.
I may be stretching the point a bit but the Wilpons are a lot like Teresa Earnhardt in NA$CAR. She is more concerned with her dead husband's legacy than winning races with the team Iron Head left her. As a result DEI is losing drivers and sponsors but top management doesn't care. Wilpon is more interested in building a new version of Ebbets Field than in making sure it has a perennial winner. Which is why people remember Ebbets Field is remembered. Nobody cared about that team before Walter O'Malley bought it. He cared about winning. And Money. And got a lot of both.
Jim C., the day after Randolph's firing, Reyes got lifted with an injury in the first inning (and threw a tantrum for it, and immediately apologized to Manuel). So I'm not sure where you're getting the "He didn't run hard" thing.
Ken -
I applaud your effort to politely deflect the idiotic comments here, but I'm gonna petition Sam Zell to pony up for a full-time moderator for your blog...
The Reyes/Beltran bashing is getting out of control; the O'Neill love won't stop; but I don't think we'll see better than:
"The Yanks could have easly won Monday and last night against if they have score more runs."
Really Dennis? You don't say! Please! Explain more baseball to us!
LOL, JoeNunz. Talk to the Dolans. Good to hear from you! I address the Reyes-bashing a little harder today.
Richie G., thanks for the background.
Joel & Ken -
Free pass for Paul the Warrior ?
O'Neill never pulled his shirt out of his pants and skipped around the field after a win or good player like a 4th grader on the last day of school...
Just my $0.03...
Paul O'Neill is the biggest crybaby I've seen in baseball the past 25 years. He complained on EVERY single strike call against him. He did not run hard to first base. He broke things in the dugout and clubhouse constantly after making out. He was unapproachable by his teammates when he was in a slump. A good hitter but a very bad sport.