Instant trade analysis: The Yankees get Pudge Rodriguez for Kyle Farnsworth
Wow, do I not like this trade.
I'm not even sure where to begin, so I'll just enumerate my points, as they come to my head:
1. I understood and supported the idea of shifting Joba Chamberlain from setup man to starting pitcher. Because, obviously, Chamberlain was still going to be on the team, in a more important role.
But to replace Chamberlain, they had managed to take Farnsworth _ who had been a complete waste of space for two years _ and turn him into a dominant setup man. Dominant, with that upper-90s fastball and slider. The credit went to Joe Girardi and Dave Eiland. The blame went to Joe Torre and Ron Guidry for what transpired the prior two seasons.
So now they're going to have to rebuild that eighth-inning bridge again, and as good as Girardi and Eiland have proven themselves to be in this area, they'll have no one with the sort of tools that Farnsworth possessed.
2. Pudge. Maybe he can keep up his recent hot streak (42-for-110 with three doubles and four homers, according to the Yankees' press release on this trade). But the prior three years _ including last year, which was a virtual walk year, since the Tigers had a team option on him _ he has been a below-average offensive player. Look at his walk totals since 2005. Brutal.
Now, is he an offensive upgrade over Jose Molina? Of course. And defensively, he still nails an impressive share of baserunners (18 of 50, as you can see on his baseball-reference.com page). But was he worth giving up Farnsworth? I don't think so.
3. The Dave Dombrowski factor. Here are the three major trades that Cashman has made with Dombrowski, prior to today:
1) February 1, 1999. Mike Lowell to the Marlins for Mark Johnson, Todd Noel and Ed Yarnall.
2) July 5, 2002. Jason Arnold, John-Ford Griffin and Ted Lilly to Oakland; received Jeff Weaver from Detroit, as part of a three-way deal.
3) November 10, 2006: Gary Sheffield to Detroit for Anthony Claggett, Humberto Sanchez and Kevin Whelan.
The first two were horrendous _ and those were Cashman's deals. They weren't pushed ahead by George Steinbrenner, or Tampa people, or anyone else. The last one, well, the Yankees benefited by disposing of Sheff. And the Tigers are worse for having him. So far, the trio of young pitchers the Yankees received hasn't panned out, although, to be fair Sanchez needs another year to be at full strength after his 2007 Tommy John surgery.
So this is a case of buyer beware. Dombrowski and Jim Leyland are as sharp a GM-manager duo as there is in the major leagues. What does it tell you about Pudge that the Tigers were willing to trade him, despite his respectable statistics?
4. Oh, and forget about offering Pudge arbitration and getting draft picks out of it. He's making $13 million this year. If the Yankees offered him arbitration, he'd get a raise from that, whereas he'll absolutely have to take a pay cut when he goes into the open market. So he would accept the arbitration, without question.
From reading your early comments, it sounds like many of us are going to be in disagreement. That's all right. It's all in the spirit of debate.
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Comments (32)
I think you're way off on this one, Ken (which is rare).
"What does it tell you about Pudge that the Tigers were willing to trade him, despite his respectable statistics?"
It tells me that the Tigers have another catcher who can hit (Inge), so Pudge has much less value to them than he does to the Yankees.
I know this isn't MVP Pudge anymore, but his offense is still a HUGE upgrade over Molina, who is literally one of the worst hitters in the big leagues.
Farnsworth's success has been an illusion this year, in my opinion. He'll more than likely be back to the 4.75-5.00 ERA guy all Yankees fans know and love. The Yankees are better off with Marte, Ramirez, Robertson or possibly even Melancon pitching the important innings before Rivera.
Ken, a few comments:
1. You make several excellent points. I wish I had already eaten dinner before reading them. I didn't realize he has only 7 extra base hits in his last 110 official at-bats. He really has no power left in his steroid free, almost muscle free body.
2. I was glad when Farnsworth starting getting people out this year, but have never trusted the guy and never wanted to see him on the mound. Like you said when they put Joba in the rotation: "Someone has to step up and fill the role." I would be surprised if Cashman brought in bullpen help, but he just might not be done yet.
3. The fact that Leyland/Dombrowski agreed to this deal doesn't necessarily mean they think Pudge is not worth much. He is an upgrade over Molina, who can still enter the game late as a defensive replacement, if need be.
4. Thank God Pudge's contract expires at the end of the season.
5. I don't think Bruney is anywhere near to being ready. I don't think he looked good at all in his last game and I never really liked him. I think Robertson could be the answer. He has real potential.
No matter how maddening or mediocre Farnsworth might be at times, I don't like the idea of getting rid of pitching. If the World Series run of the 90s taught us anything, it is pitching will get you much farther than a Hall of Fame/All Star laden line-up.
It almost makes me wonder whether the Yankees are starting to think about the hopeful return of Hughes, Kennedy, and Wang, and how that would change the rotation and result in additions to the bullpen.
As I noted in an earlier post, Johnny Bench's numbers in throwing out baserunners were remarkable, considering the frequency of the attempted steal in the days when he played. Stolen base attempts this decade are down significantly from the 70s and 80s.
Kennedy is ready to return now and Hughes will be in about 3-4 weeks - at most. Wang, I wouldn't count on, but after reading a report yesterday about his condition, I wouldn't count him out either, although he would be a very late season addition.
Maybe the Yankees thought that what they were getting out of Farnsworth wouldn't last? I can believe that Cashman made the following statement without qualifying it and specifically indicating it covered only the last two months:
"Farnsy did a hell of a job for us," Cashman said. If he is including the first 2.3 years of the contract I think it might be time for him to stop evaluating talent.
1/ I can't accept the designation of Farns as a "dominant" set up man. Yes, no doubt, he has been better this year. But just watching him on the mound, his demeanor, his reactions to when balls were hit hard off of him, he has never impressed me as a guy with a "pitcher's mentality". I have too often seen him look into the dugout after a couple of batters as if begging the manager to come get him. I posted on the live game blog after he got pulled in Boston the other night that this would probably waste him mentally for the next 6 weeks. And then wasn't he hit hard by the O's? (I forget).
That is not what I want in "dominant reliever".
2/Is Pudge worth giving up Farnsworth for? Sure, we needed an offensive catcher. We have a number of guys who can fill the 8th inning role....Veras, Marte, even Giese and I am still confident in Roberston.
3/Perhaps Dombrowski and Leyland are smarter about Farnsworth than me. Perhaps Farns will go out there and become Mariano Rivera. Good for him. He wasn't gonna do it here. We have guys who can fill Farns' role. We needed a replacement for Posada. Molina was not it offensively. Maybe this will work out great for both teams. So be it. Nothing wrong with a win/win.
(But I gotta wonder what Leyland and Dombrowski are thinking now as they hear that Farns was crying in the Yankee locker room...That CANNOT inspire confidence in them about Farns--cuz afterall, THERE IS NO CRYING IN BASEBALL!!).
4/At this point, in THIS SEASON, who cares about what we can or can't get for Pudge or what salary he will command next year.
WHO ARE WE BEATING TOMORROW NIGHT??
Just my opinion.
505 you are right that after Farnsworth debacle (falling down) in Boston he did get pasted the next night at the Stadium, giving up two hits, including a HR in his one inning. He has given up 11 HRs in 44 innings this year. That's pretty bad, especially for a reliever who is supposed to be holding the line. I know he has been good over the past two months, but that doesn't mean he would have continued to be good in August, Sept and Oct. (hopefully). The guy is a head case. We all know it.
From the previous thread.....
Jim said..
"505...has anyone ever walked up to you on a NYC sidewalk and asked: "Kenneth, what's the frequency?"
No, the only thing I have ever been asked was whether I was the guy Waiting for Godot.
and JE...
As far as Bench. My comment about him was strictly snarky.
I think Bench was a great catcher.
Any guy who could get his picture on the cover of Sports Illustrated while gripping FIVE BASEBALLS in his right hand was CERTAINLY DESERVING OF A VOTE INTO THE HALL OF FAME.
This trade solves one problem and created a new problem. Pudge certainly upgrades the offense bahind the plate. The Yanks fear that Molina won't last the rest of the season and they couldn't stomach seeing Molina's and Moeller's bat be a liable. As I said Farnsworth has pitch better under Girardi, but he still makes me nervous in big games. Heck last Friday against the Red Sox, Girardi took Farnsworth out after putting 2 runners on to bring in Rivera for a 5 out save. Veras and Marte will be the set-up men for the Yanks.
Ken, did Dombrowski talk to other teams about Pudge before he traded him to the Yanks?
Okay, Ken, all is forgiven over that Jose Reyes thingee.
As you can probably tell by my prior posts, I completely agree. The bullpen was starting to cook, Farnsworth was productive for the first time in however many years he's been here, and Pudge is, well, Pudge. His numbers have dropped off precipitously, and sadly, his attitude hasn't.
We'll see. I'm just not sure there was any reason to make the trade. Like you say, Dombrowski is sharp. The fact the he called Cashman to propose the trade (see Peter Abraham's blog) really makes me nervous. When Dombrowski calls, hold on to your wallet.
Dennis, don't sell Robertson short.
Detroit talked to the Yankees because they knew the Yankees needed a catcher if they are going to make a serious run and they need help in their bullpen. They know Farnsworth because he was there in 2005 and they like how he is throwing.
Ken the Tigers didn't trade for Farnsworth to be their new closer did they? Jones is done and they really need a guy.
That track record of trades between Cashman and Dumbrowski is alarming. But this one isn't going to be anywhere near as bad.
Sandy, yes, I believe Farnsworth is going to close for them.
Dennis, I have no idea whether Dombrowski called other teams on Pudge. I'm not sure why it's relevant.
Okay, upon further review (and a google) it was a picture of 7 baseballs in Bench's right hand and it didn't make the cover of SI, but it was an inside article picture.
Age clouds the mind.
Even so...he deserved to be in the HOF.
With or without the help of Bowie Kuhn or Marvin Miller (he always reminded me of "Dastardly Dan" from the silent pics...not that I am old enough to have watched them for a nickel or anything).
Okay, I'm done now... It's wednesday.....bars are open, time to cloud the mind a little more.
505, just for your peace of mind, "JIm" is not "Baumbach." At least, I don't think he is.
This trade is really a win-win. Both teams filled needs. Ivan is replacing Molina, not Jorge. He's not an automatic out. We don't need an all-star, just an upgrade. Tigers need bullpen help big time. They get a guy in Farnsworth who is on his best roll in 3 years. Not every deal is a fleece. Looks like equal value to me.
Regarding Manny, Ken, ESPNews said something to the effect that any deal involving him would have to be consummated 24 hours before the trade deadline, which, if true, would mean that time has already expired. Does that have to do with his 10-5 situation? Would you be able to elaborate? Thanks.
Ken: Dennis may have asked that question because the Marlins need a starting catcher. It was written up today they may trade for Greg Zahn. And, of course they are getting Manny tomorrow :(.
Farnsworth isn't going to close any better than Jones and Rodney, but he isn't our problem anymore. :)
I heard a few days ago that the TIgers have given the closer role to Fernando Rodney over Joe Zumaya to replace Todd Jones. With Farnsworth now with the Tigers, that might change.
Jim, Veras and Marte will get first crack at being the setup men for Rivera. I'm sure David Robertson will get a chance. He has pitch well since he got call up. The only game he has pitch poorly was against the Orioles on Monday.
Dombrowski did trade for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis and so far Cabrera has switch positions and has be OK at the plate and Willis has been a disater to the point that the Tigers send him down to A ball. Don't forget Dombroski did give new contracts to Willis, Nate Robertson and Jermey Bonderman and none of them are having good years.
I didn't see that, JE, but that sounds like baloney. If Manny is willing to waive his 10-5 rights in return for the Marlins promising not to exercise his team option, that takes about 5 minutes.
Thanks, Ken.
Guys, other than McCarver, is there a more annoying color analyst than Sutcliffe? (Yeah, Brantley has to receive an honorable mention, too, although at least he's only doing Reds games these days.) Ugh! I'm turning the sound all the way down....
The Astros just traded for LeTroy Hawkins. I can't believe the Yanks got a minor league 2nd baseman for Hawkins. The fact that the Yanks got something for Hawkins is amoral victory. Meanwhile the Astros are a clueless franchise. The Astros were in the World Series 3 years ago. And now they are a laughing stock franchise. Right now the Astros are going no where fast, yet for some reason they have acquired Randy Wolf and LeTroy Hawkins the last few weeks. Clearly the Astros don't know what they are doing.
Stop the presses! I agree with EVERYTHING that Dennis just wrote about the Stros and Hawkins! ;-)
Dennis thinks that Marte will be given a crack at the set-up role being vacated by Farnsworth. Do you see that Ken? I didn't think the Yankees got him for that role. I know with Farnsworth going, changes are coming. But, I am interested in your analysis of how this changes Marte's role.
Yeah, I think Marte, Veras, Ramirez and Robertson are all in the mix, Jim. At the time of the trade, Marte had actually pitched better against RH hitters than LHs.
OK. Thanks. Have a good night's sleep. You have earned it.
"505, just for your peace of mind, "JIm" is not "Baumbach." At least, I don't think he is.'
Thank you. I figured and got past that.
Actually,
I like baumbach, (if you cut and paste this ...well,,,)
from 2 time zones away.
regarding Pudge not declining arbitration. can anyone name a Scott Boras client who ever accepted arbitration. the guy will want a multi year deal and why would he take a chance at playing second or co-fiddle to Posada?
On arbitration, a lot of times the agent has a deal with the team to offer arbitration and then decline it so team can continue to negotiate. San Diego did this a few years ago knowing they weren't serious and received I believe 6 picks.
Potentially with Arbreu, Mussina, IRod, Giambi and Pettitte that yanks can get 10 extra picks!!!
Tim Boat: Pudge could command big bucks in arbitration while at the same time not be able to get a multi-year deal from other teams because of his complete lack of power at the plate. He is pretty worthless as a DH and is an aging catcher. Posada won't be ready in time for opening day. Hence, the opening Pudge might see when he makes his arbitration decision, assuming the Yankees offer it to him, which I don't think they will in any event.
Tim Boat, Boras uses that "arbitration acceptance" trick more than anyone. Here are three prominent examples:
1) Barry Bonds, 2001-02 offseason (Giants)
2) Greg Maddux, 2002-03 (Braves)
3) Kevin Millwood, 2003-04 (Phillies)
A big problem solved by this trade is that Molina as #2 catcher is a huge improvement over Moeller in that slot. Moeller is perfect as the #3 catcher you hope you never need to use.