As first reported by Jon Heyman, part of the reason the Mets have stayed put with Willie Randolph is because team officials discussed and examined the history of clubs who changed managers midseason. They found that, more often than not, the switch didn't accomplish much.
"It's like going to a casino," one person in the loop said. "It's easier to remember the times it went well."
We all remember Jack McKeon (pictured above) replacing Jeff Torborg as the Marlins' manager in 2003 and winning it all, and even more so Bob Lemon taking over for Billy Martin on the 1978 Yankees and getting a World Series ring out of it. But the Mets regard those as aberrations.
I don't know. I think it might work better than the Mets believe. It's certainly easier to pull off than the roommate switch.
According to my calculations, there have been 23 in-season managerial changes (resulting from firings, rather than resignations) since the wild-card era began in 1995. But I can think of only four comparables, in that time frame, to the Mets' current situation: A team designed to contend, making the change early enough so that it can still have a high impact. And honestly, if McKeon had bombed with the '03 Marlins, I don't think I'd even include them on this list, since it's not like we all thought, at the time, "Man, Florida sure is underachieving." We just thought that Florida stunk.
Here are the four precedents (and please, if you think I'm omitting any other obvious comparables since 1995, don't be shy).
1) 1998 Dodgers. Fired Bill Russell (36-38), hired Glenn Hoffman (47-41).
2) 2001 Red Sox. Fired Jimy Williams (65-53), hired Joe Kerrigan (17-26).
3) 2003 Marlins. Fired Jeff Torborg (16-22), hired Jack McKeon (75-49).
4) 2004 Astros. Fired Jimy Williams (44-44), hired Phil Garner (48-26).
This small sample size bodes somewhat well for change. In addition to the '03 Marlins' World Series title, the '04 Astros advanced to Game 7 of the National League Championship Series against St. Louis. The '98 Dodgers fell short of the playoffs, but they put up a better record. And the '01 Red Sox fell apart, under the pitching coach turned manager Kerrigan, whom everyone knew was a puppet of GM Dan Duquette in the conflict between Duquette and Williams.
There were personality differences involved. McKeon had that image as the fun-loving, cigar-chomping type, whereas Torborg was more of a militant guy - although McKeon lost his players just a couple of years later. Compared to the odd Williams (I love that he's on this list twice), Garner was fiery. I'm not sure how different Russell and Hoffman were.
I still think Mets bench coach Jerry Manuel would present a good enough contrast to Randolph, in that Randolph has a persecution complex and Manuel doesn't. But maybe a greater change is needed. Richie G.'s Wally Backman recommendation has merit.
Of course, on nights like last night, it looks like the Mets can accomplish anything, even if Randolph remains in the manager's office.
But before you give me a "Yankees should have traed for Santana!" remember: The whole idea behind Brian Cashman's strategy is to throw quantity at the pitching crisis. Hughes and Kennedy have bombed, so far, but Darrell Rasner has paid off in the starting rotation. And as Joba Chamberlain joins the rotation, perhaps someone else will fill that setup role. LaTroy Hawkins has been as bad as we first envisioned, eh?
Comments (21)
Manuel is the guy to replace Randolph. An outsider would take longer to settle everything down. Backman would become a story unto himself. Hiring him under such conditions is exactly what neither he nor the Mets need. I think Backman deserves a shot somewhere, but not in NY. He would be crippled in the opening weeks, which would be crucial for a replacement.
Dennis, last night showed exactly why the Yankees will have trouble making the playoffs.
Thank God Hawkins has only a one-year deal. Could Ohlendorf have been worse. I wonder if he can do it in NY?
Ken, the Mets lack toughness. The Mets when they are facing adversity get hit in the mouth and fold up like a cheap suit. They play SOFT, and show no resolve, character,or grid. The Phillies and Braves have the toughness. The Yankees we know have the toughness the last 3 years. The Mets don't have the toughness PERIOD!!!
Message to Jim, last night's game was also a example why you need to have Joba in the Pen. Everybody in the pen except for Rivera, stinks.
What the Mets need to do is rehire one of their former managers whom they fired unfairly. A man who played for them as a part time player. A man who rallied them into a hotly contested world series they narrowly lost to one of the greatest dynasties in baseball history. A man who knows how to get along with the all-knowing and all-powerful New York sports media. A man famous for his brains and financial acumen
I am referring to Yogi Berra.
How about Billy Crystal? After all, he did wear a Mets hat in City Slickers!
If Mets ownership really wants to stick it to Yankee fans, they should buy Don Mattingly out of his Dodger contract and hire him. (Is he still dealing with his wife's problems?) I think the Yankee Universe would riot.
Enough LaTroy Hawkins, please. The media and the fans hated this deal, and we were told it wasn't a big deal because they could cut him easily. Well cut him already. He's horrible and the biggest strength in the Yankees' minor leagues is pitching -- they have more relief pitching than they know what to do with. Bring up Scott Patterson or David Robertson (or even Chris Britton) and let Hawkins go back to the NL.
The Mets need to play better. People still think the Mets will get into the playoffs and play in the World Series. Not in my eyes. The Mets are a SOFT team that can't get any type of consistant run together. Right Now the Mets are like the Yankees, 2 games under .500. At least we know the Yanks have been able to overcome adversity in the last 3 years. While the Mets, facing adversity last year and so far this year, have not response.
If Willie does get axed, I think that Art Shamsky should be given strong consideration for the position
The Mets organization seems so ill prepared for this mediocre state of things. Over the winter, they got committed to Willie and sang an old slogan: Our Team. Our Time. They just didn't prepare any backup plan for manager so they are sticking with Plan A. They can still win if they focus and stop making mistakes and take more batting practice... maybe a new coach on Willie's staff can bring some oomph.
Considering the mess Steve Phillips left to clean up (I thought it would be 3 years before they could even contend for anything again) Minaya did Ok in quickening that pace by bringing in grizzled veterans to fill in while the "Yoot" developed in the minors. Unfortunately most of them are now useless and unproductive and unhappy and the Yoot didn't develop properly, like Pelfrey and Heilman and maybe Reyes is showing his real self. The managerial and coaching staff is bad, Minaya is out of plans and the fans, who are clueless, have no patience to even try to rebuild while the Yankees still compete. With a new stadium and guaranteed big crowds for at least 2 years, I think next year is a good year to tear down the team and rebuild it from the bottom up and start by getting Mark Teixiera and look into C.C. Sabathia. Then work in some more Yoots.
As far as Yankees' set-up man, what is wrong with trying Edwar Ramirez in that spot? I know this isn't saying much but he is better than hawkins and Farnsworth. Eventually it should be his job, so why not right now?
Hawkins was a terrible signing that all of us here knew from the beginning.
Ohelndorf is going to be good, I think, but is more mis-used than anything. He needs to go to the minors for more developing.
Hughes and Kennedy DL stints and demotions: 3
Hughes and Kennedy wins: 0
Cashman will be gone at the end of the season.
The Mets are a simple case: they sold their souls to win it all in 2006 and lost. They almost did it, but they came up short. People seem to skim over the part where Omar traded away the entire farm system to bring in Delgado and Do Luca. They had a decent farm system at the time, but Omar cleared it out on those two deals (he basically told the Marlins they could have whatever they wanted). And after that he never did anything to replenish it. The Santana trade moved their one decent prospect (outside of Pelfry and F-Mart). And now they're an old team without anyone to stem the tide of inevitable injuries.
It's happened before and it will happen again. When you sell the future to be a win-now team, you have to WIN NOW. When you don't, you suffer the consequences.
Ken, Mike Francesca said on the radio that the bullpen impacts the game more now in than in the past. Last night's Yankees game was a perfect example of why Joba should be in the pen, not in the rotation. The Yanks will lose more games in the 8th inning than Joba will win games as a starter this year
Joba belongs in the rotation. He might become an ace. He was a starter in high school, college and the minor leagues. The Yankees drafted him as a starter. The Yankees are looking to the future. Cashman has a plan. The hierarchy signed onto the plan. Ownership wants Joba to start. Girardi wants Joba to start. Joba is going to start. M & MD aren't baseball experts. They don't talk to people on the inside. They don't know what Joba "has." Someone else on the staff now has to step up and into the role. Let Girardi put 4 or 5 people in the role and see what happens. Perhaps bring one or two minor leaguers up and see how they do. Ramirez might fill it. I do worry about his over-reliance on the change-up, but he has earned an audition.
Dennis, I'm going to have to insist you stop citing Mike Francesa here as an expert. I like Mike & The Mad Dog - they are highly entertaining - but they can't be taken seriously when it comes to hard-core baseball analysis.
The bottom line is that your best pitchers start. It ain't brain surgery.
Ken,
I normally find you insightful, a good read and well informed. That is true for much of this post (including noting that Mike Francesa is not a baseball expert), until you cite Wally Backman as a possible replacement of Willie. Not sure if you are aware of what happened in his second to last stint (http://lioninoil.blogspot.com/2007/08/wally-backman-done-managing-for-peanuts.html) but Wally is done as a viable candidate for any important managerial position.
Lastly, from the start Willie has been a lightning rod for fan frustration, all the way back to losing to the Cardinals. It is far in excess than should be. This goes for fans at the park, FAN callers, and blog posters. It is at least equal to the vitriol Bobby Valentine received, but he is an arrogant guy who rubs many the wrong way. I'm not saying race is part of the anti-Randolph reaction, but there is more there than just him being a long-time Yankee.
The way we Met fans have been acting and treating our players and coaches, maybe we deserve this mess.
-JB
How many teams are after Mike Francesa to be general manager?
I will believe having a pitcher in the bullpen is more valuable than being a starter (if he can do both successfully) when teams do it more often. There are plenty of successful relievers who were failed starters (Rollie Fingers, Mariano Rivera). But the only successful starter ever moved to the bullpen was Dave Righetti and that was for his health. The 1980s Yankees contended but never won. Their starting pitching was weak..
Francesa loves to talked about "Mariano and Wetteland in 1996". He forgets after 1996 the Yankees let Wetteland leave, put other guys as set up (Nelson was a throw in in the Tino Martinez trade. Mike Stanton was an unheralded free agent signing). The Yankees won three staraight mainly because they were a lot better importing starting pitchers (Cone, Wells/Clemens, Hernadez) than now (Pavano, Vasquez, Wright, Weaver).
I couldn't get that link to work, jb, and now you've piqued my curiosity on Backman. If you get a chance, share it with us...As for Mets fans' behavior toward Willie, I agree that it is generally disgusting. But I do think that Willie is, in a way, even more arrogant than Bobby V.
Jim C., while I agree with your general point re: starters vs. relievers, I will quibble with your characterizations of Nelson and Stanton. Nelson pitched extremely well against the Yankees in 1995, motivating Gene Michael to try and get him included in the Tino trade. And Stanton got a three-year deal as a free agent, pretty significant (and heralded) for a setup man. Stanton was a rare case of a long-term investment in a relief pitcher that worked out.
Ken, in today's game the bullpen is more important than the starting pitching because games are won or lost out of the pen. A starting pitcher at best will go 7 innings maybe 8. Relivers can be hot or cold. Closers can blow up and lose the game unless you have Rivera or Papelbon as your closer. I'll give you example. The Mets and Cardinals were tied at 1-1 in Game 7 of the NLCS in 2006. What Happens? Aaron Heilman gives up a 2-run homer to Yadier Molina in the Top of the 9th inning, and then Adam Wainwright loads the bases, but he strikes outs Carlos Beltran to end the series. The thing is you definitely need starting pitching to win, but the bullpen especially the closer, decides these games.
Dennis, I give you points for resilience.
Since you are a Yankees fan, let's talk about the Yankees' postseason action of the prior four years. Let's start with the '04 ALCS collapse, and go loss-by-loss in the postseason.
'04 ALCS
Game 4 - Rivera blows lead in 9th, Quantrill loses in 12th
Game 5 - Rivera blows lead in 8th, Loaiza loses in 14th
Game 6 - Lieber (starting pitcher) loses.
Game 7 - Brown (starting pitcher) loses
'05 ALDS
Game 2 - Wang (starting pitcher) loses
Game 3 - Small blows lead in 6th and loses.
Game 5 - Mussina (starting pitcher) loses.
'06 ALDS
Game 2 - Mussina (starting pitcher) loses
Game 3 - Johnson (starting pitcher) loses
Game 4 - Wright (starting pitcher) loses.
'07 ALDS
Game 1 - Wang (starting pitcher) loses
Game 2 - Chamberlain blows lead in 8th, Vizcaino loses in 11th
Game 4 - Wang (starting pitcher) loses.
So of these 13 losses, just four were decided out of the pen. And in three of those, the leads were given up by Mariano Rivera (twice) and Joba Chamberlain (once), precisely the guys you'd want in these scenarios.
The primary reason the Yankees have struggled so badly the last four Octobers is that their starting pitchers were badly outpitched. The idea is that Joba can be their Beckett, their Carmona. It's a good idea.
Dennis regurgitates a portion of yesterday's Mike & the Mad Dog show fairly accurately. What he conveniently leaves out is the many examples mentioned of teams that won the WS without a "great closer." Yes, relief pitching is important. Yes, a closer helps. But the Yankees have had the greatest closer in baseball history and haven't won a championship since 2000. Case closed!
I am all for blackballing all woman beaters in Major League Baseball. But as long as Darryl Strawberry (who allegedly punched his wife in the face along with a million other discretions) is on the Mets payroll, then why not Backman? It's not just because he's "fiery" though that helps. He wins. Yes he's a little nutty, but dude knows how to win.
As for the starter vs. reliever battle. Why not Johan in the 8th? Why not Beckett in the 8th?? Because obviously starters are more valuable!! But I heard a great idea by the Milwaukee GM. He is thinking of starting relievers the first three innings and then putting in his starter (not Sheets). Surprised LaRussa didn't think of it.