Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

1. The suddenly hot Mets will take two of the remaining three games against Joe Torre's Dodgers. But late Sunday night, when the team refuses to say what meal will be served on the overnight, cross-country flight to San Francisco, Carlos Beltran will grow upset, saying, "I think they should say that and come out with something like that. Because it is a distraction."

2. The Yankees will take three of four games from the Twins in Minneapolis, but it won't be easy. With Joba Chamberlain preparing for his new job as starting pitcher, Joe Girardi will see late-inning leads blown by Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins, Ross Ohlendorf, Edwar Ramirez and Chris Britton _ prompting Brian Cashman to make phone calls to Seattle, New Jersey and Florida in search of answers.

3. After reading Newsday's coverage of Jason Giambi's mustache and Jay Horwitz's improbably bright orange jacket, writer-director Paul Thomas Anderson will stand up and say, "Finally, I am inspired to make a sequel to my most famous film!"

4. Not sure who will prevail in the three-game set between the Tigers and the Mariners, but the loser will inherit this title from the 1992 Mets.

5. The information concerns Wally Backman, who has been mentioned (and supported here) as a candidate to replace Willie Randolph. Thanks to jb for providing the initial link and to Jim for getting it to work. Here it is.

If Backman were really dedicated to being a big-league manager _ if you remember, the Diamondbacks actually named him as their manager in the fall of 2004, then fired him four days later _ he would be completely humble, understanding that one misstep could cost him dearly.

But read the link, and see the trouble that Backman found: Multiple suspensions. A run-in with an opposing broadcaster. And then, he just quit; as you can see in this story, he did agree to come back, although the indepdendent South Coast League is currently shut down.

So I retract my semi-endorsement of Backman. There would be way too much baggage here - and, even more important, there's scant evidence that Backman can control himself, going forward. Richie G., you've cited the Mets' hiring of Darryl Strawberry as an SNY analyst. But there's an immense difference between hiring someone as a TV broadcaster and hiring someone as your manager. The bar is raised considerably for the latter.

The 2003 Yankees worked with a cloud over their head. Everyone knew that manager Joe Torre and owner George Steinbrenner were feuding like never before, with bench coach Don Zimmer serving as a pawn in this incredibly tense battle.

And yet that team tied Atlanta for the best record in the major leagues, because it had four above-average starting pitchers _ Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and David Wells _ and the world's best closer in Mariano Rivera. It also mounted an incredibly inspiring, curse-promoting rally to make the World Series.

The two players making the most money on the 2004 Yankees _ yes, this guy and this guy _ pretty much couldn't stand each other. Their best hitter was, to put it politely, paranoid and delusional. Torre didn't even try to hide his contempt for Kenny Lofton, meanwhile, and Kevin Brown alienated every homo sapiens that crossed his path.

Yet not only did that team post the most victories in the AL - it did so by trademarking the come-from-behind rally, the supposed indicator of a team's unity. If not for a blown save by Rivera, one of the best teammates in baseball history, they would've swept the Red Sox in the ALCS.

That's the sort of stuff I contemplate when we discuss chemistry, and these 2008 Mets. If you had spent the last two months in a biosphere and then gone straight to Shea Stadium last night, you would've watched the Mets-Marlins game and said, "Hey, what great chemistry here! Endy Chavez's ninth-inning homer! Carlos Beltran's and David Wright's perfect execution of the hit and run in the 12th! And how about Fernando Tatis, emerging from oblivion with the big hit!"

I don't think chemistry in baseball is completely bogus, not when you watch a team like last year's Dodgers implode, or last year's Phillies overcome absolutely brutal pitching to behind the strong play of strong personalities like Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Aaron Rowand.

And yet...what can you say about these Mets? I've been as guitly as anyone the last two weeks wondering what's going on in that clubhouse, saying that it's probably time for a change in the manager's office. But you saw the way they celebrated last night, in what at least felt like a huge victory. And if you read Anthony Rieber's game story, linked above, you'll see that the team is all fired up about a lucky, bright-orange blazer that the players ordered public-relations maven Jay Horwitz to wear Tuesday, and to keep wearing for the duration of the winning streak.

The jacket was originally owned by Jeromy Burnitz and is used as a "slump-buster." It's the sort of tactic used by a team exhibiting togetherness. Although, if Johan Santana had gotten bombed on Tuesday night, then it would have been a pathetically desperate effort by a distracted group of players, ya know?

So I think that, yes, we generally overestimate the importance of chemistry _ but I would never altogether dismiss it.

I'm curious to hear the thoughts of Mr. Tufts on this. JoeNunz, I know where you're coming down on this issue. Dennis, after last night, do you still think the Mets are SOFT?

As first reported by Jon Heyman, part of the reason the Mets have stayed put with Willie Randolph is because team officials discussed and examined the history of clubs who changed managers midseason. They found that, more often than not, the switch didn't accomplish much.

"It's like going to a casino," one person in the loop said. "It's easier to remember the times it went well."

We all remember Jack McKeon (pictured above) replacing Jeff Torborg as the Marlins' manager in 2003 and winning it all, and even more so Bob Lemon taking over for Billy Martin on the 1978 Yankees and getting a World Series ring out of it. But the Mets regard those as aberrations.

I don't know. I think it might work better than the Mets believe. It's certainly easier to pull off than the roommate switch.

According to my calculations, there have been 23 in-season managerial changes (resulting from firings, rather than resignations) since the wild-card era began in 1995. But I can think of only four comparables, in that time frame, to the Mets' current situation: A team designed to contend, making the change early enough so that it can still have a high impact. And honestly, if McKeon had bombed with the '03 Marlins, I don't think I'd even include them on this list, since it's not like we all thought, at the time, "Man, Florida sure is underachieving." We just thought that Florida stunk.

Here are the four precedents (and please, if you think I'm omitting any other obvious comparables since 1995, don't be shy).

1) 1998 Dodgers. Fired Bill Russell (36-38), hired Glenn Hoffman (47-41).
2) 2001 Red Sox. Fired Jimy Williams (65-53), hired Joe Kerrigan (17-26).
3) 2003 Marlins. Fired Jeff Torborg (16-22), hired Jack McKeon (75-49).
4) 2004 Astros. Fired Jimy Williams (44-44), hired Phil Garner (48-26).

This small sample size bodes somewhat well for change. In addition to the '03 Marlins' World Series title, the '04 Astros advanced to Game 7 of the National League Championship Series against St. Louis. The '98 Dodgers fell short of the playoffs, but they put up a better record. And the '01 Red Sox fell apart, under the pitching coach turned manager Kerrigan, whom everyone knew was a puppet of GM Dan Duquette in the conflict between Duquette and Williams.

There were personality differences involved. McKeon had that image as the fun-loving, cigar-chomping type, whereas Torborg was more of a militant guy - although McKeon lost his players just a couple of years later. Compared to the odd Williams (I love that he's on this list twice), Garner was fiery. I'm not sure how different Russell and Hoffman were.

I still think Mets bench coach Jerry Manuel would present a good enough contrast to Randolph, in that Randolph has a persecution complex and Manuel doesn't. But maybe a greater change is needed. Richie G.'s Wally Backman recommendation has merit.

Of course, on nights like last night, it looks like the Mets can accomplish anything, even if Randolph remains in the manager's office.

Hope you all had a great weekend. In the midst of my holiday activities, I attended this game and saw no prospects of interest. But my son got himself a Connecticut Defenders cap, sweatshirt and mini bat, so it was a good night, nonetheless.

So I was among the many who had a better weekend than Willie Randolph, and at this point, I'm not sure what's motivating the Mets to keep him as their manager. The team is absolutely going into the tank, as a return home didn't help last night.

It is far from too late to salvage this season. A good week against the right teams, and the Mets can bring themselves right back into the race. But I don't see that good week occurring on Randolph's watch. Too much has happened now. As Carlos Beltran admitted, the whole thing is a distraction. Even if Omar Minaya deserves some blame, as well, I don't see how this roster could be performing any worse than it has in the last calendar year.

I don't buy the notion that the Mets need a "fiery" manager. They just need someone who will retsore peace and a sense of purpose to the clubhouse. I think they have that person on their staff, in the form of bench coach Jerry Manuel. No, Manuel will never be mistaken for Billy Martin, or even Dusty Baker. He does have significant managerial experience, however, having guided the 2000 White Sox to an AL Central title in his third year on the job. And you can bet he won't be watching coverage of himself on SNY, taking notes and voicing complaints.

1. With Willie Randolph's job in grave danger, the Mets will take two of three games in Colorado. But Randolph will continue to feel that the world is out to get him, insisting that, in addition to SNY, the anti-Willie conspiracy includes Major League Baseball, the NRA, the Clintons, The Simpsons and the people who came up with Bubble Wrap.

2. The Yankees will drop two of three to Seattle. Meanwhile, John McCain, trying to decide on a running mate, will dismiss Mitt Romney from consideration. "I'm sorry," McCain will say, "but I just can't respect someone who thinks Joba should stay in the bullpen."

3. Umpire Mike Reilly, enjoying a weekend off, will be a contestant on "Jeopardy!" and know the question to the Final Jeopardy answer, "This former Secretary of State occasionally sits in George Steinbrenner's box at Yankee Stadium." But fellow ump Bob Davidson will overrule Reilly, and the re-submitted question "Who is Ronan Tynan?" will wind up embarrassing all umpires.

4. On Saturday, Joe Girardi will throw his hat to the ground twice, then kick some dirt, until he finally gets his way: Pizza for dinner, it is.

5. Mike Piazza, now retired, will cackle with glee when it occurs to him that he and Roger Clemens will likely be on the 2013 Hall of Fame ballot together, and that Clemens won't get in. Piazza won't stop laughing until it's time for his induction speech on July 28, 2013 _ at which point he'll speak for 28 minutes, and then resume laughing.

Imagine if the Yankees were 30-16, rather than 21-25, and resided in first place in the AL East. And then the Yankees came out last night and said, "You know our phenomenal setup man, Joba Chamberlain? We're going to turn him into a starting pitcher, right now."

Forget about how the fan base would've reacted. The veteran players on the Yankees might have planned an insurrection. Winning teams don't blow up successful bullpen formulas.

Of course, the Yankees are not a winning team, so they could initiate their plan to convert Joba last night. What are the veterans going to say? They've got no hand, to borrow from Costanza.

It's the right call by the Yankees. As they've shown in the first 46 games, there's minimal value in having a dominant setup man when there aren't many leads to protect. If the Yankees don't make the postsesaon this year, then they very well might next year, and Joba is the guy best equipped to match up against opposing aces like Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander and John Lackey.

The eighth inning this year? It's up to Brian Cashman, Joe Girardi and Dave Eiland to figure that out. Kyle Farnsworth? That's why someone invented "LOL." Ross Ohlendorf? Maybe. Mark Melancon? Can't rule him out. The whole idea is, each year, we see surprise setup men emerge, be it Boston's Hideki Okajima or San Diego's Heath Bell or Chamberlain himself last year. But it's far more rare for surprise aces to emerge. Those, we see coming from a distance. And Joba can be one of those.

As to whose spot Joba takes in the rotation, that will solve itself. The natural choice right now would be Ian Kennedy, so maybe Kennedy takes more time in the minor leagues to work on everything. You certainly can't take Darrell Rasner out of the rotation, not after last night's gem.

Consider this a companion piece to this entry from last month.

In October of 2005, after the Red Sox had been swept out of the American League Division Series by the White Sox, Theo Epstein sat in a conference room with his fellow top Boston officials. Here is what Theo said, as reported in Seth Mnookin's best-selling book, "Feeding the Monster":

"What if we win 85 games [in 2006]? We're bringing up some young players that are going to be better in '07 than they will be next year. And they'll probably be even better than that in '08."

We all know what happened, right? The Red Sox won 86 games in 2006, missed the playoffs and Red Sox Nation thought their world was coming to an end. Then they won the World Series last year, and this morning, they are leading the AL East once again.

Look at the 2006 Sawx, here. Josh Beckett, in his first year on the Sox and in the AL, put up a 5.01 ERA. Jon Lester, a rookie, tallied a 4.76 ERA before being diagnosed with cancer. Kevin Youkilis, in his first full season as a big-leaguer, recorded a 106 OPS+. They had expensive, past-their-prime veterans playing out the string in Keith Foulke, Trot Nixon and the pictured David Wells (whom they traded back to San Diego in August). Mark Loretta was the stopgap second baseman.

Those Red Sox actually led the AL East at the '06 All-Star break, yet the infamous "Boston Massacre II" (a favorite of baileywalk's, if memory serves correct - you have to scroll down a few) highlighted a 9-21 August. They sleepwalked through September, their playoff chances shot.

So what happened? They made three major expenditures the subsequent winter, on J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Only Dice-K helped significantly last year. Otherwise, the difference came in one low-risk acquisition, lefty reliever Hideki Okajima, and the improvement of youngsters: Beckett blossomed in Year 2 of his Fenway Park stay. Youkilis improved. Dustin Pedroia took over at second base and won AL Rookie of the Year honors. Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz showed up late and displayed some mad skills. And Lester returned in time to win the World Series clincher, and he made more history on Monday night.

More youngsters, like last night's winning pitcher Justin Masterson (it was his first career victory), are adding to the Red Sox's fun this year.

These 2008 Yankees are in last place, not first, and they're playing some brutal, brutal baseball right now. Yet the plan is in motion for a similar turnaround to their Rivals'. Once this season ends, then Bobby Abreu, Kyle Farnsworth, Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and Carl Pavano will all be off the books. Then Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui after 2009.

Even if Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy don't make it, there is an army of arms coming up behind them. There are position players, too, although none of the highly-touted outfielders at Double-A Trenton _ Colin Curtis, Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata _ is really lighting it up. Then again, neither did Ellsbury at Double-A in '06.

It's entirely feasible that the pieces won't fall in place for Brian Cashman and the Yankees like they did for Epstein and the Red Sox. But just as Epstein was willing to take a step back for the greater good, so are Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner.

It's worth a shot, since the alternative _ paying huge dollars for huge names _ simply hasn't worked to anyone's satisfaction. So no matter how frustrating this season gets for Yankees fans, it's worth reminding yourself that good things can happen to a team, even when it misses the playoffs.

I planned to take a break from New York ball this morning, looking around the industry, but then I read Ian O'Connor's column in yesterday's Bergen Record about Willie Randolph. Good Lord. It's Willie in full-court "Woe is me" mode.

Here's the quote that irked me enough to call his bluff:

"If you look at my body of work since I've been here, I'm proud of that, because prior to that Mets fans were hiding. You couldn't even find them...."

Okay, now to make clear where I stand: Art Howe was a joke as Mets manager. He was lazy and disinterested, he fell far closer to Homer Simpson than Professor Frink on the intelligence spectrum and, back in the days when Tsuyoshi Shinjo and Kazuo Matsui wore Mets uniforms, he dealt poorly with the always civil Japanese media.

Howe was part of the Mets' problem, unquestionably, of his two years in a Mets uniform, and he deserved to be fired.

BUT, by the time Willie managed his first Mets game in 2005, Omar Minaya had brought in Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran. In 2006, Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca and Billy Wagner came aboard, too. Even Art might have managed to make the playoffs with that group; after all, he didn't screw up the ultra-talented A's from 2000 through 2002.

And if Willie had a team centered around a broken-down Mike Piazza, he'd probably be out of a job, by now.

I think that Randolph did considerably good work in both 2005 and 2006, re-establishing a sense of professionalism in the Mets' clubhouse. But the bar had been set low by Howe, and Willie's reward for those seasons came with an extension through next year. Moreover, his strong performance those first two years gave him the rope he needed to get another chance this year, following The Collapse.

As I wrote in this column, which ran in Saturday's Newsday, everyone deserved blame for what happened last year. But this year, with Minaya giving him Ryan Church, Johan Santana and Brian Schneider, Willie needed to mobilize his team. Perhaps he has, now. But he hadn't prior to Friday, and he deserved criticism for it.

I was also amazed that Willie picked a fight with SNY. Really, really dumb, considering how few allies (approximately zero) Randolph has in the Mets' front office. Even Joe Torre never outwardly complained about YES, back when the network's reporters were being fed questions by anti-Torre forces in the front office.

I doubt this story will derail the Mets, but it does provide an unnecessary distraction. And it does pose more questions about whether Randolph can handle the job, long-term.

Well, Johan Santana won, and the Mets won on Sunday. So as far as I'm concerned, my Weekend Predictions were perfect.

In honor of the New York City subway system's seven numbered lines, plus the shuttle that runs between Times Square and Grand Central Station...

1. Yankees fans, you're surely hurting today, after last night's Mets smackdown. If you're looking for short-term hope, remember that your team started last year at 21-29, and you nevertheless made the playoffs. I don't see another such turnaround, although I do see the Yankees picking up their play as Alex Rodriguez returns tomorrow.

If Jorge Posada comes back at the start of June, then the Yankees will be in considerably better shape. But I'll believe that one when I see it. Posada's serious concern over his right shoulder makes me wonder whether he can return to the lineup without surgery.

2. Mets fans, on the other side of the spectrum, you must be sky-high. No matter how bad the Yankees are right now, it was a real display of character for the Mets to come into Yankee Stadium and play arguably their two best, all-around games of the year. They found contributions all over the field _ none larger than Billy Wagner's four-out save on Saturday, especially after Wagner's mouth had created a gigantic stir. Extremely impressive, and for now, at least, Willie Randolph is off the hot seat.

3. Just as Yankees fans should hope for a deja vu of 2007 (at least, until October), Mets fans should cross their fingers for a repeat of 1999. Remember, the Mets opened the year 27-28, and Steve Phillips fired the three coaches who were closest to Bobby Valentine _ pitching coach Bob Apodaca, bullpen coach Randy Niemann and hitting coach Tom Robson _ two days into a Subway Series at Yankee Stadium.

I was the Yankees beat writer for The Bergen Record at the time, but I attended the June 6 Mets news conference just to see the theater of Phillips, with Valentine sitting next to him, explain with a straight face how this wasn't a personal shot at Valentine _ all with a Yankees logo in the background. It was truly surreal, and Bobby V. raised the stakes when he said he deserved to be fired if he couldn't turn the team around in the subsequent 55 games.

The Mets won that night, Al Leiter prevailing over Roger Clemens, and proceeded to post a 97-66 record, defeating Cincinnati in a one-game playoff to get the NL wild-card slot.

In Yankee Stadium once more, with the team seemingly unraveling, Randolph held a lengthy team meeting on Friday. The results, so far, are extremely impressive. We'll see whether this becomes the second year in which the Mets salvage their season in the Bronx.

4. I spoke with Jose Reyes before and after last night's game, and it is remarkable how much simple mechanics can come into play regarding a player's turnaround. Yesterday afternoon, Reyes watched the tape of his Saturday homer off Kyle Farnsworth (who stinks again, by the way). The key, Reyes said, is to keep his stride short, not go too far with his front (right, when he's hitting lefty) foot. I noticed that more than I usually would as he went deep again, this time against Ross Ohlendorf.

5. Jason Giambi made his 31st start at first base for the Yankees, and as usual, he hurt them on defense. He has so little range, and even when he does get to a ball, as he did on Marlon Anderson's fourth-inning grounder last night, he can't make the throw to get an out.

I understand that Giambi is getting on base at a .357 clip and leading the team in homers, that Hideki Matsui is one of the Yankees' more productive hitters right now and that the Yankees want to get Johnny Damon going offensively. But when you're scoring so few runs, the last thing you want to do is extend innings with defensive miscues. The Yankees have put themselves into a box here. They're paying a high premium for Giambi's unusual offensive production (eight homers, seven singles).

6. If you were opposed to instant replay prior to last night, I'm not sure how you could watch the way the umpires botched Carlos Delgado's fourth-inning homer and still be opposed today. I don't buy Bud Selig's argument that replay would prolong the game. The game was prolonged anyway by the umpires' conference and the Mets' protests. Might as well get it right.

And how about the normally placid Jerry Manuel getting ejected for arguing the call? In light of all the pleas for a more "fiery" manager, was Manuel auditioning for the Wilpons?

(I'm very much kidding; Manuel is a very good man, and I don't see him as the back-stabbing type, unlike others who have served as a Mets coach. But it was funny to envision Manuel hopping in his car following the ejection and driving straight to Jeff Wilpon's house in Connecticut, ringing his doorbell _ with his uniform still on _ and asking, "Did you see me get thrown out there? I have the DVD, if you didn't see it.")

7. I greatly admire Chien-Ming Wang's work ethic and his desire to improve and add pitches. But he still doesn't belong in the elite group of starting pitchers (Josh Beckett, Jake Peavy and Johan Santana, for instance) because he can't get strikeouts to escape jams as often as they can. With the exception of Reyes' leadoff double in last night's four-run fourth, the Mets didn't hit the ball hard. But those grounders and Moises' Alou's check-swing, soft liner found holes, and Wang was shot.

It is worth noting that Wang's strikeout rate has increased this season. Yet he's coming from so far down low that he's still not even close to the leaders of this crucial stat.

8. Yankees fans, what would you have thought if, after the Mets made it 11-2 in the top of the eighth, Joe Girardi had lifted Derek Jeter, Giambi and Bobby Abreu _ conceding the game _ and told them, "Take off the final inning and a half and Monday, and we'll go get 'em Tuesday"? I think that would've had value, just to wipe some of the stench off this weekend and clear the players' heads. I think that's what Joe Torre would've done.

Of course, Torre had far more capital in the bank. Perhaps Girardi felt like he couldn't concede a Mets game, no matter how large the deficit.

1. With Willie Randolph's job security now a legitimate question, Johan Santana will calm the waters tonight, pitching the Mets to a 4-1 victory over the Yankees in the Subway Series opener. An angry Hank Steinbrenner will remind reporters that he wanted Santana, and he'll vow to share his displeasure with GM Brian Cashman _ as soon as he can find Cashman's phone number.

2. The Yankees will come back to win Saturday's game, 8-3, as Morgan Ensberg, not showing much as Alex Rodriguez's replacement, will slug two homers off Oliver Perez. "Now that was a __ shocker," Billy Wagner will say afterward. "I'm not being sarcastic this time. I'm sincerely shocked."

3. The Mets will prevail in Sunday's rubber game, 4-3, with Carlos Beltran's seventh-inning homer off Kyle Farnsworth proving the difference. The game would not have been so close if not for a series of ill-advised decisions by Jose Reyes. The Mets' shortstop will try (and fail) to stretch a single into a double; neglect to run out of the box on a long flyball, turning a triple into a double; and buy into Blackstone.

4. In Tampa, meanwhile, Alex Rodriguez will hit two homers in extended spring-training action on Saturday. During Sunday's simulated game, he'll reach base safely in his first two at-bats, but when he is told to simulate October, he'll strike out three times.

And at an undisclosed location, Nelson Figueroa will watch a girls' softball game and realize, "That wasn't very nice of me to disparage these kids."

5. The discussion today falls on our two struggling local clubs. It should be a very busy weekend, with both teams underachieving greatly and dealing with internal strife (Randolph vs. everyone, Wagner vs. Carlos Delgado, Steinbrenner vs. Cashman).

In my preview for Newsday today, I tried to mix it up from your standard, "Position by position" comparison. Here is where I stood on the matchups, which are explained further in the story:

David Wright over Derek Jeter
A-Rod over Santana
Reyes over Robinson Cano
Jason Giambi over Delgado
Beltran over Bobby Abreu
Chien-Ming Wang over John Maine
Mariano Rivera over Wagner
Joe Girardi over Randolph
Omar Minaya over Cashman
The Wilpons over the Steinbrenners
Pedro Martinez over Carl Pavano
Yankee Stadium over Shea Stadium
Citi Field over the new Yankee Stadium
The Yankee Stadium countdown over the Shea Stadium countdown
SNY over YES
The Yankees' future over the Mets' future

As always, I welcome both agreements and disagreements.

Yeah, I figured this was too easy. But this past week, I finally saw "Pride of the Yankees," and I felt like I had to check in on this topic.

I can't believe that people think of this film, a Lou Gehrig biopic, as an all-time classic. I was taken aback by the poor acting and the surprisingly slap-sticky plot. Perhaps some of its flaws reflect its era, both in terms of baseball culture and Hollywood culture, but "Citizen Kane" came out the year before "Pride," and "Citizen Kane" is still brilliant. So it's not like it was impossible to make a great movie back then.

Gary Cooper was 41 years old when this film came out, so to see him as a student at Columbia is absurd. And Cooper doesn't even try to take on Gehrig's persona. He carries the aura of "Hello, I'm Gary Cooper, and you'll accept me as Lou Gehrig." The scene in which Gehrig makes his big-league debut _ first, he slips on a bunch of bats and falls on his rear end and then he gets hit in the head by the opposing first baseman's throw _ seems like something out of "The Naked Gun." Very bizarre.

The film redeems itself somewhat at the end, as Cooper handles Gehrig's terminal illness well. But this is still a movie that has not aged with dignity, assuming that people at that time viewed it as high-quality.

My two favorite baseball films both star Kevin Costner: "Bull Durham" and "Field of Dreams." The former works as an incredibly unsentimental look at the game and its players. I love all of the minor-league touches, including the presence of Max Patkin, who used to stop by visiting clubhouses at the old Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia and shoot the bull with the players.

I love "Field of Dreams" because it is SO sentimental, and fantasy-based, and the acting by Costner, James Earl Jones, Burt Lancaster and Amy Madigan is terrific. If you don't get choked up during the final scene, then you're more cynical than I am.

For the record, I am a big enough Costner fan that I thought even "For Love of the Game" was watchable.

What's your favorite baseball movie?

As I flipped channels late last night, between the Mets' post-game show on SNY and the Yankees' extra-inning contest on YES, I was trying to come up with an analogy to illustrate the difference between our local clubs' general managers.

Is Brian Cashman a point guard, and Omar Minaya a shooting guard? Is Cashman a scrappy, middle infielder and Minaya a swing-for-the-fences slugger?

In short time, I gave up and decided to play it straight. My point is this: Cashman, in my humble opinion, has more of a long-term vision for what he wants to do with the Yankees than Minaya does with the Mets, and Cashman possesses more patience, too. But Minaya makes far more trades that make you say "Wow!" in admiration.

Where would the Mets be without Ryan Church so far? Would they even have a winning record?

As you know, Church, who excelled again last night _ here he is congratulating Carlos Delgado at game's end _ became a Met last November 30, when Minaya acquired Church and Brian Schneider from Washington in return for prodigal outfielder Lastings Milledge.

Like most of my media brethren, I panned the trade, and trust me: It was hard to find Mets support in the baseball industry. It's too early to rip the Nats _ Milledge has obvious talent, as he showed in running down that Delgado blast last night _ but it's not too early to already praise Minaya. I just don't think Milledge could've had the impact on the Mets that Church has so far, this season. And Schneider has proven the perfect replacement for Paul Lo Duca, both in his strength as a defensive catcher and in his more laid-back personality.

A "Wow" trade, in my mind, is one that is surprisingly high-impact. The Mets' current active roster features the products of three such trades: Church and Schneider, John Maine and Oliver Perez. Maine was a virtual nobody when the Mets acquired him and Jorge Julio from Baltimore in return for Kris Benson on January 21, 2006. And Perez appeared a has-been when he and Roberto Hernandez joined the Mets from Pittsburgh on July 31, 2006, in return for Xavier Nady.

Three "Wow" trades, in roughly three and a half years on the job, is pretty good. I can't think of a Cashman move that blows me away similarly, and Cashman has been on the job far longer.

Now, to reiterate, I think Cashman has put the Yankees in better condition, long-term, than has Minaya with the Mets. And Omar has to be accountable for his share of bombs, most notably Brian Bannister to Kansas City for Ambiorix Burgos on December 6, 2006 and Heath Bell and Royce Ring to San Diego for Jon Adkins and Ben Johnson on November 15, 2006. Moreover, the decision to not protect Jesus Flores in the 2006 Rule 5 draft (Washington selected him) was an awful one.

But Minaya admits that he'll employ his instincts in some deals, and while those instincts are far from perfect, they have produced some real beauties in the trade department.

In Friday's Newsday, I'm going to compare our two local organizations, from players to on-field staff to front offices to management. Whom do you think is the better GM, Minaya or Cashman?

As I mentioned here recently, I loved the "John Adams" mini-series on HBO, so I watched all of the "Making of..." stuff on it. Tom Hanks, who is one of the executive producers, says something like, "We wanted to show people how difficult it was to live in this time."

Translate that sentiment over to baseball, and you have "When Boston Still Had The Babe: The 1918 World Champion Red Sox." It's a new book by a group of SABR members, and it exhaustively researches everyone who so much as played in one game for those World Series champs, the last Red Sox team to win it all prior to 2004.

What amazed me is just how different these players' worlds were. Yes, we know that players didn't make big money until the advent of free agency in 1976, but stilll. These guys would play exhibition games on off days, just to make a few extra bucks. They would play minor-league ball for years and years after their time in the majors, because it's not like they saved enough money to retire comfortably.

And it was an entirely different game, of course, since the Babe had yet to become a full-time hitter; he hit 11 homers in 317 at-bats and went 13-7 in 20 games on the mound. There was so little power in the game. There were no people of color in the game, either.

What this book made me appreciate more than anything was how futile it is to compare eras in baseball. Each has such a dramatically different context. That's why it's very valuable to have statistucs like ERA+ and OPS+, for they allow us to see how each player performed among his own contemporaries.

I happen to know one of the book's writers (there are roughly 30), Rob Edelman. Rob teaches fiim history at the University at Albany, and he has become a regular contributor to the "Pop Quiz" I run every week with my Seventh-Inning Stretch. Rob wrote about Lore Verne "King" Bader, who pitched in five games for those 1918 Sox. He would never pitch in the majors again.

Rob dug up countless details about a man who pitched a total of 22 games in the major leagues, including how he spent his final years (farming in Kansas). Bader died on June 2, 1973, and his funeral service was held at LeRoy's Mattingly Funeral Home. The proprietor was named Don E. Mattingly.

"The Bader piece took a couple of months of intense research," Rob e-mailed me, after I inquired how much work he put into this profile. "I love doing this sort of thing. During the next few months, I'll be writing similar pieces for SABR-produced volumes on the New York Mets and Brooklyn Dodgers."

I am a complete sucker for this kind of stuff. I love that there are people willing to invest so much time and effort to learn about players from the past, both distant and recent. If you're like me, I recommend this book (or, you could wait for the Mets and/or Dodgers books that are coming).

My apologies for the delay this morning. Crazy technical difficulties.

Anyway, I've been to two of Johan Santana's starts this season, and in both, he labored like crazy against bad teams. On April 29, he threw 114 pitches to the Pirates and lasted just 5 2/3 innings, needing Pedro Feliciano to bail him out of trouble in the sixth. And on Saturday, the Mets' new ace fired 116 pitches for six innings in a victory over the Reds, and if he hadn't struck out Corey Patterson with Reds on first and third, he might have been lifted.

So I now admit: It is somewhat vexing that Santana isn't mowing through the NL with more ease. Yes, his overall numbers are just fine, and yes, we know he historically improves alongside the warm weather. But still. I'm surprised that Santana has needed to work so hard to not even get very deep into games.

Consider this: Santana has thrown 110 or more pitches in four of his eight starts this season. Last year, he reached that number in just six of his 33 starts. And it's not like Willie Randolph and Rick Peterson are pushing Santana late into games. They're just trying to get him to finish six innings.

What do you think, Mets fans? Something to shrug off, or not? I'm beginning to get a tad curious, myself.

1. The Yankees will drop two of three to the Tigers at Comerica Park, with Kei Igawa picking up the lone victory tonight in his 2008 major-league debut. On Saturday night, following the game, Jose Molina will recommend that a group of players go see "Iron Man," but Joba Chamberlain will shake off Molina three times and insist on seeing "Made of Honor." Bad things will ensue.

2. The Mets will take two of three from Cincinnati at Shea Stadium. The Reds Ken Griffey Jr. will hit his 598th career homer on Saturday, then pine for a return for Seattle in his post-game conference, then wonder on Sunday what all the fuss over his comments was about.

3. Alex Rodriguez, rehabilitating his strained right quad in Tampa, will drive by a hospital and instantly faint.

4. The highly disappointing Mariners will get swept by the White Sox, despite a total of 10 hits in three games by Miguel Cairo. Seattle will fire manager John McLaren and replace him with his predecessor Mike Hargrove, going with the philosophy that every good manager has a good nickname.

5. The rationalization comes after reading David Lennon's Mets Insider on Aaron Heilman: It's not good that Heilman has switched from the Mets' eighth-inning pitcher to their sixth-inning guy. But on the bright side, he's moving closer to his eventual goal of pitching in the first inning.

M-Crash asked me this morning to check Derek Jeter's VORP, so I did. Here is his ranking among shortstops (13th overall). Here is his overall ranking (tied for 124th with J.D. Drew).

Of course, of course, it's still early, and Jeter historically hits better in the second half. He also missed a week with a quad injury. But still, are any of you alarmed by Jeter's lack of power? Wally Matthews discussed that with Jeter in his column today.

Here is the best explanation I've seen for how VORP is calculated. It's a particularly relevant stat given the Yankees' injuries. We're seeing how much their lineup is hurt by the absence of Alex Rodriguez (who led all of baseball last year with a 96.6 VORP) and Jorge Posada (who was eighth overall, and first among catchers, with a 73.4). VORP doesn't factor in defense _ for that, you need WARP, or Wins Above Replacement Player _ but right now, offense is the Yankees' problem.