I think I first read the point in Joel Sherman's blog, a couple of days ago: Can you imagine if the current Mets or Yankees teams, or a Yankees team of recent past, dropped the first six games of the season? In all seriousness, I'm not sure whether Joe Torre would've survived some of those years. Willie Randolph's neck would be on the line at this very moment, if the Mets were 0-5 rather than 2-3.
I got to see a good amount of the White Sox-Tigers game last night on ESPN, and wow. What a fiasco. They could just not get anything going, and you could see the shock in Justin Verlander's face (there he is pitching, in the right-hand corner) when Jim Leyland lifted him in the sixth inning.
The team that made the biggest trade of the offseason, that trails only the Yankees and Mets (barely) with a payroll of over $137 million, opened the season by losing six straight games, at home, to two AL Central foes, neither of whom is regarded as the primary challenger (that would be Cleveland).
Can any of you remember a similar plot line in baseball, or any sport - where a highly touted team got off to such an awful start? I can't, which is why I brought up Giuliani, the former New York City mayor. At one point, the experts regarded him as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for President, only to see Rudy bomb once the caucuses and primaries began. But that is a very imperfect comparison, given the different arenas.
Yes, we all knew the Tigers had some issues with their bullpen and starting rotation. Nevertheless, no one foresaw this. There is so, so much time to come back, and I'll stick with my preseason prediction that Detroit will win the AL Central. Yet this first week shocked the senses like none other has.
Everyone moans about how bad the Yankees' setup crew was from 2001 until Joba's arrival last year. That's not altogether inaccurate (although it does overlook Tom Gordon's contributions), yet the Yankees still managed to make the playoffs every year.
No, the Yankees problem has been winning the playoffs, not making the playoffs, and a lack of dominant starting pitching tops the reasons for such failure. Maybe Phil Hughes and a remade Chien-Ming Wang, with slider and changeup, can fill that void. But Chamberlain has the best stuff of all.
As for the in-season transition from reliever to starter: Brian Cashman points to such precedents as Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano and Chad Billingsley. But none served as the primary setup man for his team. Those three, and others, dabbled in setup work but also worked as long relievers. Check the day-by-day records on Baseball-Reference.
To blow up such a successful combination as Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera, in mid-season, seems foolhardly. No, the better plan would've been for the Yankees to wean themselves off of the "Joba in the eighth" addiction at the outset of spring training, develop other guys to fill that role and install Chamberlain as part of a six-man starting rotation.
Comments (18)
The 1992 Mets, after adding Bonilla, Murray and Coleman plus Saberhagen in a trade, started off 2-6. Perhaps people shouldn't have been surprised after a 77-84 season in 1991 but they did spend heavily in the offseason.
As for Joba in the bullpen...considering the Yankees have to throw some young pitchers and Mussina, they probably have a bigger need this year for someone to throw the seventh and eighth inning (if they have a lead) , as these starters would be fortunate to go six innings. Isn't this a Bill James theory also?
And what about James' bad joke/implication in his book that Gaetti and Puckett used steroids?
or...in April and May Joba throws more 2 inning stints, some 3 inning stints in June - and he could start after the All-Star break if Mussina and/or one of the kids cannot hack it anymore
Ken, though Santana got the Loss...Smoltz did deserve the win.
Not to sound like Phil Mushnick, but the real stat that holds very little value are holds and saves. Todd Jones and Joe Borowski had a lot of saves last year, but neither one pitched great (though Borowski was a lot better than I expected).
I do agree with your Joba take. They fell in love with the Mo/Wettelend and Nelson/Stanton/Rivera combo...so now they think the 7/8 is more important than the 1-6 innings.
BTW, did Borowski win a ring with the Yanks?? I had no idea he was a Yankee until I looked up their 1998 roster.
Good one, Jim C. I was thinking about the "Worst Team Money Could Buy" '92 Mets, although for some reason, I thought they got off to a better start.
rmt, it's one of my many goals in life to work you past your Bill James hatred.
Richie, I agree with you 1,000 percent on saves and holds. Worthless statistics.
I hope that Anthony Rieber's and Jim Baumbach's careers are progressing better that Ricky Schroder's at the moment. Nice call, Ken, during the off season, on Trey Hillman. I think that you were the only in the New York press, prior to last week, to have given him any recognition, at all.
Ken, I think Bill James is part genious part baseball fool. I watched that 60 Minutes package and there were stuff that made a lot of sense. But saying there is no clutch hitting and that a closer is not important is just wrong. I understand his concept, but it just doesn't work out.
On another note, not a fan of the pitcher batting 8th by LaRussa.
As far as the 0-6 Tigers...I dont want to get banned Ken, but what about the 07-08 Michigan Wolverines???
Richie G - ouch! I'm still wating to hear if it was true that the UM folks gave Larkin a hockey scholarship, as thye has run out of baseball ones at the time.
Ken - I don't hate Bill James. My take is that as it says on every mutual fund prospectus "past performance is no basis for future results".
As for extremely hard core anti-sabr people, any take on the apparent "retirement" of Murray Chass?
Just read that James comment on Kirby and Gaetti. Was James not making fun of those who try to draw broad conclusions: "Ken Caminiti died because he took steroids" and all that?
Richie, that is PERFECT about U-M football! I am jealous that I didn't think of it myself. It's probably because I try to live life as if that Appy State loss never happened. Seems like hitting the pitcher 8th is working well so far not only for the Cards, but for the Brewers, so I have no objection there.
As for Murray Chass departing...it wouldn't be prudent to go there, to steal from Dana Carvey's impersonation of George H.W. Bush.
And Steve, thanks for the kind words.
Ken, you are right that Joba belongs in the rotation - and soon. Good call on the Yankees losing 2-of-3 over the weekend. Any ideas on tonight's lottery numbers? It's hard to believe how poorly the Tigers have played and even harder to believe they will continue to be this bad. I think they will right the ship, but don't think they will win the WS.
Ken: if you want another example of a highly regarded team getting off to a poor start, how about the 1951 Giants? In 1950 they won 41 of their last 62 games to finish 5 games out. After starting the 1951 season by winning two out of three games, they lost 11 straight so they were 2-12
Saves and holds do have flaws but is it possible to tighten the standards? Like you have to pitch one inning with a one run lead? Or if you come in in mid inning, the tying run must be in scoring position. All statistics have flaws which is why we should use a variety of them with a skeptical eye. But they are better than nothing for players we seldom see.
'51 Giants are good, Jim C. What stood out about these Tigers, to me, was just the immediacy of their poor start. I mean, 0-6, after making that trade!
Point well taken about the stats. It would be nice to tighten the standards for saves. But then what do you about the past 40 years? Re-calibrate the saves, or just leave them as is with an asterirsk?
Oh, and Richie G., I assume that Borowski got a ring from the '98 Yankees. He was only on the big-league team for a little while but spent the entire year with the organization. I remember he picked up a win in an extra-inning game in Kansas City that August.
I imagine they would use whatever the ruling was at the time. Baseball did that with game winning home runs were changed to hits that made the winning run score with games before 1920. They left the previous decision stand..Babe Ruth would have 715 home runs by today's standards.
Ken, The Yankees will be nuts to put Joba in the rotaton. I understand your point about about the Yanks not having a dominant starter. But considering what's happening right now with these Bullpens in baseball. You metion that you saw K-Rod blow a save for the Angels. These days the bullpen is much more important than a starting pitcher. We already know how good Joba is in the Bullpen. But we don't know how good he is as a starter. Joba might someday be the closer when Mariano Rivera retires. The Yanks have no reliable relivers besides Rivera and Joba. Hawkins and Farnsworth Stinks, everybody else is unknown. As for the Tigers, they are right now 0-6. But the Tigers better not dig too deep a hole like the Yankees did last year otherwise their season is ruin.
How about the '92 World Champion Dallas Cowboys, who started off 0-2 before taking the title? Of course, that's when Jerry Jones relented and gave Emmitt Smith his money, which makes it an exception, but I wanted to bring it up anyway.
Also - how about Tango & Cash? Penn & Teller? Hall & Oates? Lewis & Martin?
How about J-Rock and Teiccholz? (sorry, inside joke).
Dennis, I know what you're saying about bullpens, but it's pretty simple in my mind: If you don't have starters that can keep you in the game, then it doesn't matter who's sitting in the bullpen. In the last four postseasons, the Yankees' starting pitchers have not kept them in the game way too often.