Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

The best way to describe what Opening Day means to me is that, professionally, it's the day of the year during which I am least cynical.

I'm a sucker for all of it: The pre-game introductions of both rosters (seeing who gets booed), the ceremonial first pitch. Seeing someone pick up his first hit of the season. Being in the winning clubhouse afterward, watching the players enjoy that, for one day, they are undefeated.

It's that feeling of renewal, of a fresh start, for which we all yearn.

I'll be at Yankee Stadium today for Yankees-Blue Jays, and this will mark my 19th Opening Day, if you give me some leeway and count home openers (rather than season openers) in three instances. The first seven came as a fan, from 1988 through 1994. The last 12 have come professionally, starting in 1997.

Since it's my blog, I'm going to list my previous 18 openers and what sticks out in my memory bank from them. I'm getting the dates, of course, from Retrosheet.

1. April 5, 1988. Yankees 8, Twins 0, at Yankee Stadium. Perhaps because this was my first, I remember plenty: 1) Dave Winfield, having just published his autobiography _ which ripped a then-highly unpopular George Steinbrenner _ received a huge ovation; 2) Frank Viola, the reigning World Series MVP, got bombed; 3) Rafael Santana, in his first day as a Yankee, grounded into a triple play; and 4) When we returned to my friend Scott's car after the game, the car had a flat tire.

2. April 7, 1989. Indians 4, Yankees 2, at Yankee Stadium. Jamie Quirk was the Yankees' starting catcher. This was a bad team.

3. April 12, 1990. Tigers 11, Red Sox 7, at Tiger Stadium. All I remember is that it was freezing.

4. April 8, 1991. Tigers 6, Yankees 4, at Tiger Stadium. I recall thinking, "I can't believe Tim Leary is the Yankees' Opening Day starter."

5. April 6, 1992. Blue Jays 4, Tigers 2, at Tiger Stadium. Jack Morris won his Blue Jays debut _ against his old team, to boot. That night, Duke crushed Michigan in the NCAA men's basketball final.

6. April 13, 1993. Tigers 20, Athletics 4, at Tiger Stadium. Check out the roster of the 1993 Tigers. What a fun team they had, as this game exemplified.

7. April 4, 1994, Yankees 5, Rangers 3, at Yankee Stadium. I remember that Jimmy Key started for the Yankees, but otherwise, it's just a fog of bitterness, for that is the year I stopped being a fan.

8. April 1, 1997. Mariners 4, Yankees 2, at the Kingdome. Now a reporter, I saw Ken Griffey, Jr. go deep twice against David Cone.

9. April 1, 1998. Angels 4, Yankees 1, at Edison International Field of Anaheim. LOL on the short-lived stadium name. This was the ballpark's "re-opening," with that cheesy "Magic Mountain" thing beyond left-centerfield.

10. April 5, 1999. A's 5, Yankees 3, at Network Associates Coliseum. Roger Clemens lost in his Yankees debut, and with Joe Torre getting treatment for prostate cancer, interim manager Don Zimmer dropped his record to 0-1.

11. April 3, 2000. Yankees 3, Angels 2, at Edison International Field of Anaheim. Paul O'Neill hit the go-ahead homer, and Orlando Hernandez, coming off what turned out to be his finest major-league season in 1999, won his only Opening Day assignment.

12. April 2, 2001. Yankees 7, Royals 3, at Yankee Stadium. Clemens became the AL's all-time strikeout leader, passing Walter Johnson. With one out in the ninth inning, Joe Torre went to new setup man Todd Williams, who committed a throwing error on Mark Quinn's dribber up the first-base line. Torre immediately replaced Williams with Mariano Rivera, and I seriously think that Torre never trusted Williams again, after facing just that one batter.

13. April 1, 2002. Orioles 10, Yankees 3, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Clemens injured his right hand trying to barehand a comebacker, and he got lit up after that. When Clemens, at an area hospital, agreed to conduct a phone interview with one reporter, I was selected as the pool reporter. I asked Clemens seven or eight questions, then said, "Okay, thanks, Roger." Clemens replied, "Okay, guys" _ confirming our belief that Clemens was just like the Chef in "South Park," who would say, "Hello, children!" to just one child.

14. March 31, 2003. Yankees 8, Blue Jays 4, at SkyDome. Hideki Matsui, making his big-league debut, was supposed to be the story, but he got overshadowed by Derek Jeter's gruesome dislocation of his left shoulder.

15. March 30, 2004. Devil Rays 8, Yankees 3, at Tokyo Dome. Mr. "I Hate Japan," Mike Mussina, got rocked. Paul Quantrill, facing his very first batter while in a Yankees uniform, collided with debutant third baseman Alex Rodriguez and had to leave the game with an injured right knee. Quantrill's knee was never right again.

16. April 3, 2005. Yankees 9, Red Sox 2, at Yankee Stadium. In Randy Johnson's pinstriped debut (as well as David Wells' Red Sox debut), the Yankees exacted the tiniest bit of revenge for the previous October collapse.

17. April 3, 2006. Mets 3, Nationals 2, at Shea Stadium. Paul Lo Duca, in his Mets debut, duped the umpire into making a bad call at home. This was also the game when everyone freaked out because new Met closer Billy Wagner had the same entrance song as Mariano Rivera.

18. April 1, 2007. Mets 6, Cardinals 1, at Busch Stadium. Deja vu of '05, with the New York team avenging a Championship Series defeat.

Okay, now it's your turn. Offer your favorite Opening Day memories. Or perhaps different images from the games I attended. Challenge my preseason predictions (previous item) some more. Do some (bleeping) thing, as Jimmy Serrano told Sidney in this movie.

Best of luck to you and your teams in this 2008 season.

Newsday's season preview is out today, and if you don't get the physical newspaper, you can check it all out here.

As conceived by editor Dave Whitehorn, the special section focuses on the notion of a pitching ace, what with the Mets deciding they couldn't afford not to trade for Johan Santana and the Yankees deciding against the Twins' asking price. Here is a story I wrote on this issue, while if you click "Photos: Ranking MLB teams' aces," you'll see that i attempted to, well...rank the teams' aces, from 1 through 30. In some instances, it was difficult merely deciding who constituted a team's "ace," and I'll be happy to answer any criticism concerning this selection process, as well as the actual rankings.

I'll re-print my predictions right here, with brief explanations:

AL East: 1. Red Sox; 2. Blue Jays; 3. Yankees; 4. Rays; 5. Orioles.
Thoughts: As I've attempted to opine here on the blog, over the last few months, Brian Cashman deserves praise for passing on Santana. But he'll pay a short-term fee for this bold non-move, as the Yankees' pitching carries myriad questions. The Yankees could even win 90 games and miss the playoffs, as the Jays are going to ride strong seasons by Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett into October.

AL Central: 1. Tigers; 2. Indians; 3. White Sox; 4. Twins; 5. Royals.
Thoughts: Despite Detroit's awful spring on the pitching front, I still love their lineup, ace Justin Verlander and manager Jim Leyland. Cleveland could feel some residual fatigue from last October's run.

AL West: 1. Mariners; 2. Angels; 3. A's; 4. Rangers.
Thoughts: The Angels should've picked up another bat over the winter (sorry, Torii Hunter isn't that great a bat). With John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar down, Seattle can make the division title happen with its deeping pitching staff and strong defense.

AL Wild Card: Toronto.
ALCS: Toronto over Boston. Love that Toronto pitching staff, both starting and relief.

NL East: 1. Mets; 2. Braves; 3. Phillies; 4. Nationals; 5. Marlins.
Thoughts: Yes, the Mets have questions about pitching depth and age, but Santana makes everyone so much better. And it's easy to forget they have three elite offensive players in Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and David Wright.

NL Central: 1. Cubs; 2. Brewers; 3. Reds; 4. Cardinals; 5. Pirates; 6. Astros.
Thoughts: Should be a cakewalk for the Cubs, and a bad Astros team means no donuts for four brave blog commenters (scroll down to #3).

NL West: 1. Diamondbacks; 2. Dodgers; 3. Rockies; 4. Padres; 5. Giants.
Thoughts: Love the D-Backs' overall depth, and the Dodgers have a ton of talent. Much like the Yankees, the Rockies will make progress, big-picture, even while posting fewer victories.

NL wild card: Dodgers.
NLCS: Mets over Dodgers. That front four of the starting rotation cures all other ills.

World Series: The Mets close out Shea Stadium with jubilation, overcoming the Blue Jays.

MVP: David Ortiz, Boston, and David Wright, Mets.
Cy Young: Erik Bedard, Seattle, and Johan Santana, Mets.
Rookie of the Year: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay (yes, I know he's beginning the year in the minors), and Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers.
Manager of the Year: John McLaren, Seattle, and Lou Piniella, Cubs.

Now's your chance. Rip away. Offer countering predictions. And we'll see how everything turned out, at the end of the regular season and then again at the end of the postseason.

Covering the Yankees-Devil Rays series at the Tokyo Dome, back in 2004, ranks as one of my professional highlights. It wasn't just the two games. It was spending a whole week in Japan.

I got to ride a black hawk chopper with Joe Torre, Brian Cashman and others _ remember Gabe White? He helped me with my seat belt _ after a Yankees contingent visited this place to spread good will. I also visited Hideki Matsui's childhood home, which is now a museum, in Ishikawa.

At the games themselves, guess which Yankee generated the second-most buzz, after Matsui? Not Derek Jeter, not Alex Rodriguez, not Gary Sheffield. It was Mariano Rivera. Every cut fastball produced an "Oooh!" or an "Ahhh!" It was truly an amazing cultural convergence.

Perhaps that first-hand experience explains why I wasn't offended by the manner in which baseball kicked off its 2008 schedule, with the Red Sox and A's splitting a pair in Tokyo. Yes, the games occurred before the conclusion of the Grapefruit League and Cactus League schedules, and yes, they started at 6 a.m. here on the East Coast.

But I'd ask you to take a step back and think globally. Contemplate what it means to the great fans of Japan to host 3 MLB openers over the last nine seasons (the Mets and Cubs played in the inaugural series, back in 2000). Realize the huge marketing potential that Asia holds for MLB. It seems that the Red Sox fans in Boston made the best of a unique situation, much as the Mets fans did in 2000 and Yankees fans in 2004.

It's a great thing for baseball to expand its brand, particularly in Asia, which has such a rich baseball history of its own. Maybe you do have to be there to fully appreciate it. In which case, I'd ask you to trust me when I tell that the Japan trip is a wonderful event.

What I remember most of all, from when "Juiced" came out three years ago, was how passionately the baseball establishment tried to discredit it. Both sides, management and the players, worked aggressively in the media to portray Canseco as a dishonest, money-grubbing rat who should be ignored.

This time, as Canseco releases his second book, "Vindicated," it figures to be different. My bet is that the powers that be opt to no-comment this one, instead of militantly speaking out against it.

Part of that is because "Vindicated" is pretty thin. I speed-read it yesterday and last night, and for the most part, it's a 259-page victory lap. But mostly, it's because Bud Selig, Don Fehr and the rest of the Canseco-bashers came out looking so foolish the last time.

Is Canseco money-grubbing? He concedes that point in "Vindicated." But is he dishonest? Nowhere close to 100 percent, that's for sure. Look at who he accused in "Juiced," of illegal performance-enhancing drug usage: Jason Giambi, Juan Gonzalez, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro and Ivan Rodriguez. Since then, Giambi has fully confessed, Gonzalez made the Mitchell Report (down in this story), McGwire had his day in Congress, and Palmeiro failed a drug test. That's four out of five, with only Pudge coming away clean (although Canseco's book caused skeptics to raise eyebrows at Rodriguez's weight loss).

You could argue, authoritatively, that Canseco has done more to clean up baseball than Congress, Selig and the Players Association. It was his work that spurred the rest into action.

In his sequel, Canseco offers just one eyewitness account; he writes that he injected Magglio Ordonez with steroids and HGH when they were teammates on the 2001 White Sox. The A-Rod stuff, as detailed in my story linked above, is amusing, but pretty flimsy. Can I envision A-Rod asking Canseco hypothetical questions about purchasing steroids? Sure, I can envision pretty much anyone asking that of Canseco. But I certainly wouldn't use this material when contemplating A-Rod's Hall of Fame candidacy down the line.

A-Rod shrugged it off yesterday, and this book definitely won't have the same impact as the first one. Yet down the line, history will remember Canseco somewhat fondly. He's a dirtbag, but, like the people who brought down Pete Rose for gambling back in 1989, he's a dirtbag who accomplished something impressive.

I managed to get a copy today of Jose Canseco's new book, "Vindicated." Here are details. Proper credit should be paid to freelance writer Joe Lavin, who got the first look, and to Deadspin (link on the left side), which made sure that Lavin's discovery got play.

Red Sox and A's are tied, 4-4 in the 10th, as I type this _ not exactly your typical Opening Day, although I applaud taking regular-season games abroad _ but we're still sort of in a preseason mode here.

In the wake of last week's entry concerning five teams that would post worse records than 2007, here is the flip side: Six teams that will improve.

1. Mets (88-74 in 2007). Yes, there are imperfections here, but that starting rotation is sublime. And Jose Reyes will be motivated to prove that last September was a fluke. Throw in a Phillies team that won't repeat last year's success, as mentioned last week, and you have a team set to return to October.

2. Mariners (88-74). They outperformed their Pythagorean record by nine games (as noted here), so you might expect a fallback. But with two new starting pitchers in Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva, and an emerging ace in Felix Hernandez, the M's are in pretty good shape to make some damage. Especially with the Angels' front of the rotation hurting, as noted last week.

3. Tigers (88-74). If your team went 88-74 last year, it looks like, you're going to get better. If you've been following the Tigers this spring, you know that they have neither a sixth starter nor a setup man, issues that normally don't bode well. But the Tigers have an outrageous lineup. Remember, not only did they acquire Miguel Cabrera, they also picked up Edgar Renteria, which allowed them to move Carlos Guillen to first base, improving them at two positions.

As for the pitching, I think Dontrelle Willis will thrive in this intense environment, after struggling with a miserable Florida team last year. And I'm putting faith in skipper Jim Leyland and general manager Dave Dombrowski to figure out the rest.

4. Dodgers (82-80). Yes, it's partly because I think Joe Torre is a better manager than Grady Little. But more than that, the Dodgers are a really talented team. To an already impressive group, they added Andruw Jones, who will be determined to rebound from last year's bad season with the Braves, and Japanese starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda. The bullpen is so deep that it's possible _ possible, not definite _ even Torre won't be able to overuse anyone.

One potentital pitfall here: Torre has to play Andre Ethier over Juan Pierre. Dodgers GM Ned Colletti's biggest mistake, by far, was to sign Pierre to a five-year contract after the 2006 season. That deal shouldn't justify playing time for Pierre when he's clearly the inferior player.

5. Blue Jays (83-79) and Rays (66-96). I'm cheating and declaring a tie here, because I feel so strongly about both of these clubs. The Jays have an outstanding pitching staff and will benefit from Scott Rolen's defense and intensity, once he returns from the disabled list (and this was a freak injury, not anything consistent with what has sidelined him in recent years). Franchise player Vernon Wells also wants to justify his huge contract, after a bad 2007.

As for the Rays, they've got to be better, if for no other reason that the Orioles are going to be much worse. But with their offseason pickups of Cliff Floyd, Matt Garza and Troy Percival, and the continuing maturation of their talented youngsters, they could even make a run at a .500 record.

One caveat: If Scott Kazmir's elbow problems are worse than they appear right now, then .500 is out of the question.

The last week of spring training feels like the last week of sleepaway camp, if you've ever been fortunate enough to experience that. Boxes are being packed, hearts are being broken and people are preparing to move on with their lives.

Of course, the stakes are a little higher among the adults at spring training. But the main problem teams face this time of year is figuring out which concerns are real and which will fade away and be laughed at, come September.

So let's throw in our two cents regarding the local clubs' issues, using two fictional characters and one real person as our measures. If the problem will blow over quickly, then we'll say, "This is NOTHING!!!" a tribute to Dustin Hoffman's character (Stanley Motss) from the brilliant "Wag the Dog." If it seems manageable but could get worse, we'll cite Mr. McNamee's memorable, "It is what it is" from last month's Congressional hearing. And if this looks like a full-blown crisis in the making, then we'll go to Jim Lovell, the real-life astronaut portrayed by Tom Hanks in "Apollo 13," who said, "Houston, we have a problem."

Mets starting pitching. Yesterday was a brutal day for Orlando Hernandez and Mike Pelfrey. El Duque, given his salary and his experience, deserves the first shot at this opening, and Pelfrey should go to Triple-A New Orleans and try to right himself. It shouldn't be forgotten, however, just how strong the Mets' front four of Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez and John Maine is. That will give the Mets a great deal of leeway in that fifth spot.

Also, if the Mets can't solve their fifth starter problem internally, then Freddy Garcia will be available in a few months, when he's healthy. And if they get really desperate prior to that, then Jeff Weaver and David Wells are still free agents, although Willie Randolph's personal experience with both from their collective Yankees days might not prompt positive recommendations from the managers.

Most of all, remember the Mets' competition: The Phillies and Braves are looking to Jamie Moyer and Tom Glavine to fill their third starters' roles. Both Perez and Maine are considerably better than that duo.

Analysis: This is NOTHING!!!

Mets offense. If Carlos Delgado declines beyond last year's bad numbers, then the Mets are going to have a real headache here. They are banking heavily on a revitalized Jose Reyes and rehabilitated Luis Castillo to get things going in the top two spots in the order. They do have two supreme offensive players in Carlos Beltran and David Wright _ and likely a third in Reyes _ so that shouldn't be forgotten.

Analysis: It is what it is.

Mets bullpen. It sounds like Duaner Sanchez won't be ready by next week, but that's not tragic, as long as he's good to go by the end of April. Bullpens are, by their nature, volatile. It seems like the Mets have coverage in their group, and with Santana around, their workload should lessen somewhat. But it wouldn't shock anyone if the bullpen proved a problem again.

Analysis: It is what it is.

Yankees starting pitching: Andy Pettitte's back didn't improve yesterday (second item in the story), and this is a bad sign in what has already been a foreboding season for Pettitte. Expecting a repeat of last year's numbers is probably unrealistic.

If you're a Yankees fan, you've got to hope that Chien-Ming Wang's horrible playoff performance was just an aberration; that Mike Mussina can turn back time a little bit; and that Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy mature and progress without any speed bumps.

In the American League, which is ridiculously more challenging than the NL _ and I'm going to keep pounding that point home, because that plays such an enormous role when comparing the Yankees to the Mets _ all of this is a lot to ask. I think Brian Cashman absolutely made the right call in not dealing for Santana, and that his master plan will pay off in the long run. But this year could bring some serious growing pains, most of all in the rotation. And yes, you can count on the Yankees to also be in the mix for Garcia.

Analysis: Houston, we have a problem.

I've spent the bulk of the last two weeks writing material for Newsday's baseball preview section, which will come out next week. Here's one item I felt worthy of a sneak preview:

Brian Cashman, in discussing his decision to pass on Johan Santana, offered this: "Johan Santana will win the Cy Young Award for the National League this year."

I agree with Cashman. Santana's smooth spring training continued last night, and the bet here is, after eight years of pitching in the fierce American League, Santana will regard the NL, and Shea Stadium, as a virtual vacation.

Okay, he probably won't enjoy pitching in Citizens Bank Park very much (although it'll help that the Phillies' two most feared hitters, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, are left-handed). But a steady diet filled with the Marlins and Nationals is quite the bunny slope, compared to lineups like the Tigers', Indians' and (in their better days) White Sox's. A league filled with hitters unfamiliar with Santana's stuff and patterns will be a godsend for the Mets' new ace.

Ideally, I would've held off all of my predictions until the preview comes out next week, but I couldn't think of any other blog subject.

Man, Theo Epstein really walked right into this entry.

Here's my take on the Yankees' official decision _ this was decided a while ago _ to make Joba Chamberlain a setup man again. What do you think? What would you do with Joba if you ran the Yankees?

Haven't quite finalized all of my 2008 predictions, but here are five teams that I believe will post fewer victories than they did last year:

1) Phillies (89-73 in 2007). It won't be because of Cole Hamels, pictured to the left, who is awesome. And if you don't believe me, read this. It's because of who's behind Hamels and Brett Myers in the starting rotation.

Maybe Jamie Moyer, now baseball's oldest active player at 45, can survive for yet another year, although he displayed signs of slippage last year. Perhaps Kyle Kendrick wasn't a rookie fluke, but his rough spring training doesn't bode well. Adam Eaton? Yeesh.

You've got to respect the lineup, particularly reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. But last year felt magical, and it will be difficult to duplicate that magic.

2) Rockies (90-73). What general manager Dan O'Dowd has built here is real, the proverbial "player development machine" that all organizations aspire to be. They should hang around in contention for the bulk of the year. I'm going to peg this dropoff _ not a significant one, but a dropoff nonetheless _ on the belief that the Diamondbacks and Dodgers will be tougher in the NL West, and that even the post-Bonds Giants will be a feistier group, and that some of the Rockes' pitchers are bound to feel the physical effects of last year's October run.

3) Angels (94-68). The early injuries to top starting pitchers John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar don't bode well. And while I, like the rest of the human race, am a big Torii Hunter fan, Hunter isn't really the big-time hitter that Mike Scioscia uncharacteristically, publicly (albeit somewhat subtly) requested (near the bottom of the story) last October, following the Angels' playoff loss to the Red Sox. The Angels really should've gone harder after Alex Rodriguez last November.

4) Padres (89-74). They could use Barry Bonds more than anyone, as their outfield (Scott Hairston, Jim Edmonds and Brian Giles, from leftfield to rightfield) isn't going to scare anyone. Their pitching staff has the potential to be great, but that's only if Randy Wolf and Mark Prior (who's not ready yet) get and stay healthy. And the offense could be brutal.

5. Twins (79-83). The easiest call of all. I still say that, if the Twins had retained Johan Santana, with Francisco Liriano back as a second ace and Delmon Young, Mike Lamb and Adam Everett aboard as interesting additions to the lineup, they might have been able to hang tough with the Indians and Tigers. Now? It's all about the future.

So I was lifting weights with POSTOFFICEDUDE5000 last week, when he asked me, "Are the Mets bringing the apple and top hat to the new ballpark next year?"

As luck would have it, I saw Mets COO Jeff Wilpon the very next day at Shea Stadium, and I asked him the question.

"We're either going to take it over (from Shea), or we're going to put up a new one and display the old one in some form," Wilpon said.

It's only now, when I Googled "Shea Stadium top hat apple home run photo," that I realize how behind the rest of the blogosphere I am on this one. There's this, and this, and this. So everyone who has a vested interest in the Mets, it seems, has a vested interest in the apple.

I am pro-apple. The Mets were awful during my formative years, and my earliest memories include Rusty Staub (in his second Shea stint) going deep and setting off the apple. The apple matches the team's history of cheesiness. It's one of many components that give the Mets their warm, fuzzy image, their persona as lovable underdogs with the most humble of beginnings, as opposed to the Yankees' more corporate feel.

Thoughts?

As another season approaches, and we prepare for arguments and counter-arguments and the like here, let's set the bar high.

Please, don't bring up batting average, RBI or pitchers' wins when making your case. If you do so, you will be fined (in imaginary money. It's not like I'm gonna track you down). Using those stats, here in 2008, is the equivalent of playing your music on cassettes.

The brilliant Joe Posnanski wrote a blog entry about new stats and old stats recently _ how do you think I got the idea for this entry? Original thought? _ which argues that the old stats aren't necessarily easier to comprehend. We just grew up with them, so they seem easier.

Since Joe's blog posts are, in his own words, "curiously long," I'll copy/paste my favorite part. Here he is, imagining a world in which batting average didn't exist, envisioning what the reaction would be if a blogger proposed it:

Blogger: I have come up with a new statistic. It involves balls put in play. I call it batting average.
Establishment: Great! How’s it work?
B: See, what we’ll do is, we’ll take the number of hits that the batter has and divide it by the number of at-bats that he has in order to determine how often he gets a hit.
E: That sounds like on-base percentage. What’s the difference?
B: Well, it’s all in what you call “at-bats” For one thing, we don’t count walks.
E: What do you mean you don’t count walks?
B: They don’t count. We take plate appearances and subtract walks. They never happened.
E: How can a walk never happen?
B: It just doesn’t.
E: Aren’t walks good things? Like in Little League, we always say “Walk’s as good as a hit.”
B: I hate walks. They’re gone. So let’s say a guy comes to the plate 12 times, and he gets four hits and walks twice …
E: Right … that’s a .500 on-base percentage.
B: Exactly, but if you just subtract the walks, you will see that he has a .400 batting average.
E: Um, OK.
B: But there are other things. If you hit a fly ball, and someone tags up and scores a run, that does not count as an at-bat.
E: Why not?
B: Because you are sacrificing yourself for the betterment of the team? I call it a sacrifice fly. Get it?
E: Well, what are you sacrificing if it doesn’t even count against your stats?
B: You just are, OK?
E: What if you hit a ground ball and the runner scores.
B: How’s that?
E: Let’s say the infield’s back and a guy hits a ground ball to get the run in. How do you score that?
B: No, that’s not a sacrifice fly.
E Why not? Doesn’t that accomplish the same thing?
B: It just isn’t. Come on, pay attention. What’s it called. Sacrifice FLY? Hello! He didn’t hit a fly ball.
E: It just seems to me …
B: Sacrifice bunts also do not count as at-bats. And when you get hit by a pitch … doesn’t count.
E You don’t get any statistical notice for getting hit by a pitch?
B: Like it never happened.
E: I’m afraid to ask this: What happens if you reach on an error.
B: That’s the beauty of this system. According to my new batting average, you’re out.
E: But you’re not really out.
B: I know. Isn’t it great?
E: Why does this have to be so complicated?
B: It’s batting average! It will take over the world!

The other two banned stats, in my mind, are pretty simple: RBI and wins reflect a player's team more than the player himself. Randy Johnson won 17 games for the 2006 Yankees even though he was largely awful, thanks to tremendous run support. Barry Bonds drove in just 66 runs last year because he played for a brutal Giants team which rarely put runners on base. And so on.

So join me. I'm not asking you to fully embrace VORP, or MLVr, or WXRL, although I will occasionally use these and encourage you to do the same. On-base percentage, slugging percentage, ERA (while quite imperfect), innings pitched and strikeouts are a fine starting point.

In the same vein, I don't want to competely discount the old-fashioned "human element" when discussing the game. I just want to use better stats, is all.

Slowly, the Mets are getting healthier, and based on the current lay of the land, it looks like only Moises Alou will definitely have to start the season on the disabled list. Although it wouldn't shock any of us if Orlando Hernandez joined Alou there, out of habit, and Brian Schneider could need an extra week or so to get ready.

So the Mets' 13 position players on Opening Day could be:

Catchers (2): Ramon Castro, Schneider

Infielders (6): Marlon Anderson, Luis Castillo, Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, Jose Valentin, David Wright

Outfielders (5): Carlos Beltran, Endy Chavez, Ryan Church, Damion Easley, Angel Pagan

What do you think? I think I agree with the masses that suddenly, the Mets' pitching staff is their strength.

The key will be Delgado, who is coming off a poor 2007 and has looked awful so far this spring. If he further deteriorates, then the Mets could really struggle to consistently put up big numbers. We already know the team will take an offensive hit, with a defensive gain, by replacing Paul Lo Duca with Schneider.

In the outfield, you want to see whether Pagan can carry over any of what he's showing now into the regular season. I don't see a huge need for a trade there, right now.

The Mets could really use a right-handed hitting first baseman as a safety net for a Delgado downfall. One team official recently mentioned Valentin to me, which is why I put him on the roster. But Valentin isn't a picture of health and productivity, himself, and he hasn't hit right-handed much in recent years, either

I ain't exactly splitting the atom here _ this has been out there _ but it seems like the best outside option would be Baltimore's Kevin Millar.

Millar can still get on base and slug, as you can see by his numbers. He's no Keith Hernandez defensively, but neither is Delgado. I also think Millar's personality would be a good fit in the Mets' clubhouse. He's boisterous and fun, and the club could use some more of that. He loves speaking with the media, and you might remember that last year, Lo Duca publicly expressed his frustration that not enough players were doing their share on this front.

The Orioles are clearly thinking toward the future, given their winter trades of Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada, so there's no reason Baltimore shouldn't deal Millar. Here's the problem, though: The O's have no use for the Mets' key trading chips, Scott Schoeneweis or Jorge Sosa. Baltimore wants prospects. The Mets have anything but a surplus of prospects, after the Johan Santana deal.

So stay tuned. We probably won't see any significant trade action until the final week of spring training. But suggestions here are always welcome.

I finally got to see the Shelley Duncan footage at about 11:30 last night, on the Channel 2 news, and Good Lord. That was as blatant a cheap shot as anything I can remember seeing in baseball.

So now the Yankees will begin their season with a 24-man roster, since there's no way that Duncan will avoid a suspension for that, and this feud with the Rays has even more life to it.

Duncan is a good kid whom you have to admire for sticking it out through all of those years in the minor leagues. And you know he had good intentions here. He was expressing his support for catcher Francisco Cervelli, who took a beating from Tampa Bay's Elliot Johnson last Saturday, breaking his right wrist.

But come on, now. Johnson and the Rays were wrong, but at the risk of sounding like an elementary-school teacher, two wrongs don't make a right. Duncan had better be careful here. He doesn't have enough room for error to be doing much more of that nonsense.

During my travels of the last month, I completed reading "The Best Game Ever" by Jim Reisler. It's a really well-done book, featuring vivid details of 1960 World Series Game 7 and a historic backdrop of Pittsburgh and the Pirates _ who, if you don't know, won this game and World Series on Bill Mazeroski's walkoff homer in the bottom of the ninth.

I was a decade and three months away from being born when this game took place, so I can't put this on my personal list of best games ever. My list featuers two games from my fan life and three from my professional. I'll present it in chronological order:

1. Yankees 5, Red Sox 4, October 2, 1978. I remember it was one of the Jewish holidays, although now I'm not sure whether it was Rosh Hashanah or Yom Kippur. But there was no school, and I watched the game at my Aunt Evelyn's apartment in Brooklyn _ although not the entire game, because I recall hearing Yaz's second-inning homer off Guidry in our car, on WINS' broadcast. I still can feel the shock waves of Bucky Dent's seventh-inning homer, and the relief when Graig Nettles caught Yaz's foul pop in the ninth to leave the tying and winning runs on base.

UPDATE: Newsday's grand poobah of the sports night shift, Jeff Weinberg wrote in to say it was indeed Yom Kippur. Thanks, Jeff.

2. Mets 7, Astros 6, October 15, 1986 (National League Championship Series Game 6). Can't remember the first-pitch time, but I got home from school at about 3:00 in those days, so I might have even caught the bottom of the first inning, when the 'Stros jumped out to a 3-0 lead off Bobby Ojeda. Those Mets were so incredible with comebacks that it wasn't a shocker when they scored three runs in the ninth to tie it up. Then, the extra-inning tension: Roger McDowell pitched five shutout innings! Billy Hatcher's game-tying homer in the 14th secured this game's status as an all-timer. And Jesse Orosco, pitching on fumes, struck out Kevin Bass in the 16th to secure the Mets' first pennant since 1973 _ and keep them from a potentially fatal outing against Houston's Mike Scott in Game 7.

3. Red Sox 11, Yankees 10, July 24, 2004. I was standing outside the Yankees' clubhouse when Jerry Laveroni, the director of team security, informed the media that the game had been called due to rain. The Yankees were actually packing up their possessions and preparing to return to their hotel rooms. But it turned out to be a miscommunication. The Red Sox players convinced ownership to try and get the game in, and what a game it turned out to be. You had the infamous A-Rod-Jason Varitek brawl, and even when the Yankees took a 9-4 lead in the sixth, you knew this wasn't done yet. Bill Mueller's walkoff blast off Mariano Rivera made it a highight game in a highlight year for the Sawx.

4.Red Sox 5, Yankees 4, October 18, 2004 (American League Championship Series Game 5). What I remember most about this game, and this week, was how exhausted I was from merely covering it. And this game was the pinnacle. When Derek Jeter punched a three-run, sixth-inning double off Pedro Martinez, it looked as though The Captain was poised to add another item to his resume. But Tom Gordon had nothing left after working so hard all year, and Rivera actually pitched very well to keep the game tied into extras. And there was so much to savor in those extra frames: Varitek's inability to catch Tim Wakefield's knuckleballs (why didnt Joe Torre send his runners?). Esteban Loaiza, a complete regular-season bust, pitching brilliantly for the Yankees. And Big Papi delivering one more clutch hit, muscling the single to center off Loaiza to score Johnny Damon in the 14th.

5. Astros 7, Braves 6, October 9, 2005 (NL Division Series Game 4). My only non-New York game, although it featured some people we know well. In a must-win for the Braves, manager Bobby Cox went with Tim Hudson on three days' rest, and that decision paid off, as Hudson went seven-plus strong innings. But when Hudson tired, Cox went to his closer, Kyle Farnsworth, who blew a five-run lead _ five runs! _ culminating with Brad Ausmus' two-run, solo homer with two outs in the ninth. Roger Clemens, who had lost Game 2, actually entered the game as a pinch-hitter, a first and only such entrance for The Rocket, and stuck around to pitch three shutout innings. Chris Burke's solo homer in the bottom of the 18th advanced the Astros to the NLCS. Roughly 20 years apart, a second all-timer in Houston.

What is your best game ever?

Honeymoon phases with established sports entities are different than many actual honeymoons, for there is a victim. By praising a new manager's good vibe, you are, in some form, denigrating the work of his predecessor.

So with all of the positivity surrounding Joe Girardi comes some gentle media jabs at Joe Torre, who wears his own honeymoon gear with the Dodgers while Grady Little takes hits. Specifically, the talk of Yankees camp has been Girardi's emphasis on conditioning, a noticeable contrast to Torre's camps.

With this has come criticism in myriad circles _ from here to here (near the bottom) to here (a Feb. 29 entry) _ that the media should have ripped Torre last year and previously for instituting poor conditioning, if that were the case.

I see a few different factors at play here. Is wimpiness one of them? Probably, yes. Let's face it, as a whole, we're not a very impressive species, and the media is no different. Perhaps there were times in the past when people, myself very much included, cut Torre some slack because of his likeability.

But Torre also earned much of that slack, for making the playoffs every single year (yes, with the highest payroll in baseball his final eight years). No matter how out of shape Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon and Mike Mussina were, the Yankees made the playoffs, anyway. Would they have won the American League East and homefield advantage in October if they had conditioned better in February and March? Perhaps. It's rather impossible to say.

The other reality is that it's far easier to notice something that already happened as oppose to something that is occurring in the present. It's not like Abreu and Damon were chain-smoking and gorging themselves on Ho Hos during the rundown drills last year. Maybe I'm dumber than the pack, but I never once did I think, "The Yankees will get off to an awful start due to their poor conditioning." But now, with Girardi working the team hard _ and it should be noted that Brian Cashman was going to shake things up even if Torre had accepted that lame, one-year offer to come back _ the contrast between now and then strikes you more clearly.

We'll see if this has any tangible impact. I do think the Yankees will get off to a better start than they have the past few years, in part because of Girardi's enthusiasm and this extra conditioning. Looking back, more years than not, Torre's teams got out of the gate slowly and then surged toward the finish line. The key will be how well Girardi and his players can sustain that energy. And, far more important than any of this, how well the pitching holds up.

Hope you all had a good week.

10. I know I wrote here recently (scroll down) that teams should pass on Barry Bonds, but at that time, the Mets had yet to begin their salute to the infamous "Homer at the Bat" episode of "The Simpsons," with so many players going down. I wasn't thinking specifically of the Mets when I wrote that. Yet given what has transpired in the last week, I think the Mets should seriously consider signing either Bonds or Sammy Sosa.

In covering Bonds' pursuit of Hank Aaron last summer, what stood out most of all was how much Bonds' teammates resented the influx of media around the club. With the Mets (or Yankees, or Red Sox, for that matter), a huge group of media already surrounds them. The players are used to it. They might not like Bonds, but they wouldn't be able to blame him for making their lives considerably less comfortable.

If signing an indicted player is just too difficult for the Wilpons to stomach, then how about Sammy? His numbers against LHPs (.410 OBP, .613 SLG) while with the Rangers last year shouldn't be ignored. He could give Ryan Church a rest against lefty pitchers and, when he doesn't start, serve as a vaulable, late-inning weapon on Willie Randolph's bench. And he proved last year that he has shed his prima donna ways.

9. If you take your 4-year-old to see "The Lion King" musical, and you're thinking, "He won't understand the plot, he'll just enjoy the music and the scenery!"...he'll understand the plot.

8. I've yet to see replay of the collision (the aftermath of which is pictured above) between young Yankees catcher Francisco Cervelli and the Rays' Elliott Johnson, so I don't feel comfortable passing judgment. But it is nice, regardless, to see Joe Girardi speak so passionately about any issue. Considering that Girardi arrived in New York with a reputation for holding back with the media, that really hasn't been the case, so far.

Odd sidenote: In this story, Don Zimmer recalled Joe Torre telling the Yankees in a team meeting that they shouldn't slide into Mike Scioscia when he blocks the plate. That would've been odd advice for Torre to dispense, since Scioscia retired after the 1992 season and Torre didn't start managing the Yankees until 1996. Perhaps Zim was confusing Torre with old Giants skipper Roger Craig.

7. This spring hasn't been easy for the Mets, but their prime challengers aren't exactly cruising, either. The Phillies' Adam Eaton has back problems, so don't count on a rebound year from him. And of course Philadelphia already lost Brad Lidge at the outset of spring training. And the Mike Hampton comeback with the Braves isn't going so great.

6. If you take your child to London, and he or she is cranky from the time change, take him or her to Hamleys. The visit will have the effect of a legal performance-enhancing drug.

5. Let's make it clear: Joba Chamberlain will not begin the 2008 season in the Yankees' starting rotation. It doesn't matter who else does what. In order to stick within his innings-pitched limit of 140, he has to start out in the bullpen _ unless the Yankees went to a hybrid, six-man rotation, which they don't seem inclined to do.

4. Randy Johnson makes his first start of the spring today. Here's betting that the Big Unit, 44, with 284 career victories, reaches the 300 mark before his final scowl.

3. Speaking of wagers, we have four takers on the "Astros make the playoffs" bet. In addition to Andrew, Jason H. and Tim, Bill V. signed up. If Houston qualifies for the postseason, I owe each of you a box of Dunkins. If the 'Stros fall short, we'll arrange for a nutritionally superior, economically equivalent donation to a homeless shelter in Newsday's neighborhood.

2. Since my wife and I struggled with the time change in London, we purchased "No Reservations" on the pay-TV channel. Thumbs down, and it featured what is now officially my most tired movie cliche: When the character comes home, hits "Play" on the answering machine, and hears "You have no new messages," to indicate the character's loneliness. Please, Hollywood, come up with something different.

1. Maybe it'll prove to be absolutely nothing, but with Josh Beckett's back hurting, it's worth a reminder just how much teams' pitching staffs tend to break down following a late-October run, particularly in the much more challenging American League. Look at the 2005 Red Sox, 2006 White Sox and 2007 Tigers, all of whom suffered huge pitching setbacks following postseason glory.