Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

"It's going to be a long winter, Mets fans, so let's stop _ now _ the suggested trade packages for Johan Santana."

I wrote that in the October 7 edition of Newsday.

Yeesh.

So how did I screw this up? Let us count the ways:

1) I figured that the Twins, if they couldn't get the high price they justifiably wanted for their ace, would have no qualms about sticking with Santana and making a very feasible World Series run in 2008. What I failed to anticipate was that the Twins, having completed their 2007 season in disappointing fashion, would not want to repeat the experience they had with impending free agent Torii Hunter.

You New York fans are accustomed to the "big-time player in his walk year" storyline. Shoot, in 2007 alone, we had Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera and Alex Rodriguez potentially leaving the Bronx, and Tom Glavine and Paul Lo Duca in Flushing. They know the deal: They're going to be asked about it, repeatedly. They answer the questions and move on.

Torii Hunter is one of the nicest guys in all of baseball. I was one of countless reporters last year who did the "Hunter on his free agency" story. When the Mets were at Shea Stadium, Hunter smiled and politely, colorfully answered about seven minutes' worth of questions.

And yet...for some reason, this freaked out the Twins. Frankly, it's a terrible reason for them to accept a low-ball package in return for arguably the game's greatest pitcher.

2) I underestimated how few teams would actually be willing to give up both the trading chips and money necessary to land Santana. The Yankees' interest waned once Andy Pettitte returned, and with that, so did the Red Sox's.

Perhaps the Mariners would have done it, yet it's pretty clear that Santana, who still makes his full-time home in Venezuela, preferred to be on the East Coast.

3) I underestimated the Twins' opinion of the Mets' prospects. It turns out that Joe McIlvaine, the former Mets general manager who is a respected voice in Minnesota, is high on Carlos Gomez. And the Twins tried to get Kevin Mulvey in last summer's trade for Luis Castillo.

4) I overestimated the savvy of new Twins GM Bill Smith. I am a fan of both Smith and his predecessor, Terry Ryan. But Smith terribly misread his potential trading partners. As I wrote in my column today, Smith clearly held the belief that Hank Steinbrenner would relent and give up a huge package. Yet no matter how much Hank blathered over the last month, there never existed even a remote chance that the Yankees were going to trade Melky Cabrera, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy for Santana.

So that's that. I wanted to be accountable, because I hate people in my business who slither away from poor forecasts as if they never happened.

But in the far bigger picture, give credit to the Mets for their sticktoitiveness. Once they sign Santana _ and they're going to sign him, and I feel very confident about this prediction _ they'll have the best pitching staff in the National League East, and perhaps even the entire league. Spring training will be dominated not by talk of The Collapse, but talk of Santana.

Congrats, Mets fans. You deserved this one. And in the future, ignore my pleas to leave me alone.