Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

1. The Yankees will drop two of three to the Tigers at Comerica Park, with Kei Igawa picking up the lone victory tonight in his 2008 major-league debut. On Saturday night, following the game, Jose Molina will recommend that a group of players go see "Iron Man," but Joba Chamberlain will shake off Molina three times and insist on seeing "Made of Honor." Bad things will ensue.

2. The Mets will take two of three from Cincinnati at Shea Stadium. The Reds Ken Griffey Jr. will hit his 598th career homer on Saturday, then pine for a return for Seattle in his post-game conference, then wonder on Sunday what all the fuss over his comments was about.

3. Alex Rodriguez, rehabilitating his strained right quad in Tampa, will drive by a hospital and instantly faint.

4. The highly disappointing Mariners will get swept by the White Sox, despite a total of 10 hits in three games by Miguel Cairo. Seattle will fire manager John McLaren and replace him with his predecessor Mike Hargrove, going with the philosophy that every good manager has a good nickname.

5. The rationalization comes after reading David Lennon's Mets Insider on Aaron Heilman: It's not good that Heilman has switched from the Mets' eighth-inning pitcher to their sixth-inning guy. But on the bright side, he's moving closer to his eventual goal of pitching in the first inning.

M-Crash asked me this morning to check Derek Jeter's VORP, so I did. Here is his ranking among shortstops (13th overall). Here is his overall ranking (tied for 124th with J.D. Drew).

Of course, of course, it's still early, and Jeter historically hits better in the second half. He also missed a week with a quad injury. But still, are any of you alarmed by Jeter's lack of power? Wally Matthews discussed that with Jeter in his column today.

Here is the best explanation I've seen for how VORP is calculated. It's a particularly relevant stat given the Yankees' injuries. We're seeing how much their lineup is hurt by the absence of Alex Rodriguez (who led all of baseball last year with a 96.6 VORP) and Jorge Posada (who was eighth overall, and first among catchers, with a 73.4). VORP doesn't factor in defense _ for that, you need WARP, or Wins Above Replacement Player _ but right now, offense is the Yankees' problem.

At 7:43 last night, I commented here on the blog that I intended to do a column on Jason Giambi for today's Newsday. I figured it was time to check in on Giambi's horrid start to the 2008 season, and ponder whether the Yankees would actually consider releasing him.

When Giambi had a strong start to the game, beating out a double play in the first inning and ripping an opposite-field, RBI double in the fourth, I thought, "Perfect!" I began to put together a column reflecting my belief that, while Giambi has been anything but relentless when it comes to his work ethic, he is resilient. I was going to bet, and I'll do it now, that Giambi will indeed finish this 2008 season in a Yankees uniform, although I'll also bank on a visit to the disabled list.

Yet as I was finishing up this column, David Dellucci came up as a pinch hitter against Joba Chamberlain with two outs and two on in the eighth inning. And the next thing I knew, I was calling Newsday's king of the night, Jeff Weinberg, and informing him that I was going to have to write about Joba. When someone as popular and buzzworth as Chamberlain picks up the first regular-season blown save of his career, and allows his first ever runs at Yankee Stadium, that's not something to be ignored. Even if the game-turning homer takes place at 10:00 and you have to have the column in by 11:15.

Here is the column. The point I attempted to make was that, whether he winds up as a reliever or a starter _ and I think it's a no-brainer that he should be a starter _ Chamberlain has some growing up to do.

So that's a brief glimpse into the nature of my job. Next week, I'll explain to you how I choose my clothes.

In the process of reporting this story in today's Newsday, Astros owner Drayton McLane told me that he and team president Tal Smith met with Roger Clemens and his agents, Alan and Randy Hendricks, last December, following the release of the Mitchell Report.

The issue about Clemens pitching in 2008 came up. "They were totally undecided," McLane said. "They said they'd let us know when they were ready to talk."

That meeting took place before Clemens' case snowballed into the monster it is now, of course. At that time, it seemed feasible that Clemens could make a go at another half-season, especially back in the National League, after his 2007 with the Yankees left some people disappointed. And hey, there are Mitchell Report perpetrators all over the major leagues. The Astros shortstop, Miguel Tejada, is being investigated by the U.S. Department of Justice for perjury, just like Clemens.

Now, however, you can probably bet against such a comeback. A person close to Clemens told me that a fifth "unretirement" seems very unlikely, since Clemens is battling multiple battles with the DOJ investigation, the defamation lawsuit against Brian McNamee and the reports dealing with his infidelitities.

Gotta run right now. I'll try to check in later with more...

UPDATE, 12:54 p.m.: Very sorry about that. I intended to start this blog last night, after the Mets game, but I fell asleep around the fifth inning. So I didn't have enough time this morning, and I had to take my son to school and run a few errands...yada yada yada. Here I am.

Back to Clemens, it sounds like it's for the best that he's retiring. The Yankees can't take him back, not after they were hurt more than anyone else by the Mitchell Report, and not with Andy Pettitte in their clubhouse. As for the Astros, McLane wouldn't rule out bringing back Clemens, but it sounded like a longshot.

"I think a lot needs to develop, in my opinion," McLane said. "I think there's got to be a lot of questions answered."

When asked, in a follow-up e-mail, what those questions would be, McLane responded, "1) Does Roger want to pitch again; 2) What will result from the congressional investigation; 3) What are the Houston Astros’ needs, etc."

The answer to number 1 appears to be "No." Number 2 could take years to answer. As for number 3, the Astros would certainly be a better team with Clemens taking the ball every fifth day. But it appears to be a moot issue.

I was chatting with one of Newsday's copy editors, Greg Gutes, yesterday, and we were wondering how much better off Clemens would've been if, the day the Mitchell Report was released, he put out a statement confirming the illegal PED usage, with something like, "As a competitor, I couldn't handle not being the best anymore, so I bought into the culture at the time. I wish I could do it all over again."

Greg thinks that Clemens would be in dramatically better shape. I think that he would still be in pretty bad shape. Obviously, Clemens' family wouldn't have been dragged into this, but his Hall of Fame candidacy, and his status as one of the best pitchers of all-time, would be shattered nonetheless. Thoughts?

There's a doorman at my apartment building who loves to vent about the Mets. Loves to rip Willie Randolph, and Aaron Heilman and both of the Carloses, and Billy Wagner, too.

But there are times when the Mets are playing well, and I put my hand up and declare a moratorium on Mets complaints for the day.

So in that spirit, with both the Mets and Yankees coming off strong weekends, I'm declaring it a No-Complaint Monday.

(Disclaimer: Of course, this is all just for show. Of course I want you to complain, if that's how you're feeling. What, I'm really gonna encourage people not to post comments? I'm just trying to make the point that the New York teams both registered good weekends. I'd do anything for comments, just like Sonny would do anything for Cocoa Puffs).

The Yankees finished off a sweep of the Mariners yesterday. Here is the column I wrote off of the game. I found it interesting that, on the day the Yankees demoted Ian Kennedy to Triple-A Scranton, another homegrown product whom we once all wrote off, Melky Cabrera, further asserted himself as an offensive force.

Darrell Rasner, yesterday, proved the perfect antidote to the demoted Ian Kennedy and injured Phil Hughes: He threw strikes. Mike Mussina, meanwhile, continues to display signs that he's not quite dead yet.

The offense, despite the continued absences of Jorge Posada and Alex Rodriguez and the continued incompetence of Robinson Cano and Jason Giambi, has woken up some. You can thank the quintet of Cabrera, Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter and Hideki Matsui for that.

Now, with all of this kept in mind, I wouldn't throw too big a party if you're a Yankees fan, as the Mariners looked awful. I can't believe some people picked Seattle to win the AL West. The Mariners just don't seem to get the most out of what is now an above-average pitching staff. I knew their offense would be no better than average _ and it hasn't been even that good _ but I didn't anticipate the lousy defense, to boot. They played like they didn't care.

As for the Mets, there are no qualifiers necessary. They went into the home of the best team in baseball, a team that hadn't so much as lost a home series this year, and they won two out of three.

I listened to yesterday's crucial top of the ninth on WFAN, as I drove from the Bronx to Manhattan, and it sounds like they caught a big break. But hey, good teams capitalize on their opponents' mistakes, and that's what the Mets did. That top of the ninth was a thing of beauty. The first two outs advanced runners, and Marlon Anderson's pinch-hit single was the kind of knock that could spark a winning streak.

I want to see this Ryan Church throw in the eighth inning, meanwhile. Like everyone else on the planet who doesn't draw a paycheck from the Mets, I ripped the Lastings Milledge-for-Church and Brian Schneider trade, but so far, it looks pretty smart. Look at Milledge's pedestrian numbers in Washington.

Now, let's see where this goes with Willie Randolph and his Teases. Joe Torre's Dodgers are tough, and Oliver Perez goes tonight in trying to wipe out his awful last start that drew Wagner's wrath.

1. The Yankees' struggles will continue when they get swept by the Mariners at home. Even worse, they'll begin to feel cursed when Yankee emertius Mickey Rivers, while pulling the "Regular Season Countdown" lever after the fifth inning, suffers a Grade 2 strain of his right quad and a stress fracture of a rib on his right side. Joe Girardi will exacerbate his problems with the the media (scroll down) when he says, testily, "There's nothing wrong with Mick. He's still quick."

2. The Mets will rebound from Wednesday's abomination by sweeping the Diamondbacks in Arizona. But when the team arrives in Los Angeles Sunday night for its next stop, and Billy Wagner gets a hotel room close to the noisy elevator, the Mets' closer will blame Oliver Perez.

3. Carlos Delgado will see this play Saturday night in Phoenix, and he'll grow enraged when the actors decline to come out for a curtain call.

4. The beleaguered Roger Clemens, a longtime friend of George H.W. Bush, will find sympathy from the other side of the political aisle. Hint: It's someone who will feel his pain.

5. And now, the correction. I have been communicating with Gary Mintz of South Huntington for probably about three years now. Gary is a huge Giants fan, and he is involved with the New York Giants Baseball Nostalgia Society. In my Midweek Insider on Wednesday, I improperly connected some dots, and I concluded that Gary rooted for the Giants back in their Polo Grounds days.

Gary politely notified me this week that he's 47; he roots for the Giants in honor of his late dad, Louis. So Gary doesn't remember the 1962 World Series, let alone the days in Harlem.

My apologies to Gary.

Happy May Day. No longer can we dismiss the results of our favorite sport with the "It's only April" tag.

Just for the heck of it, let's look at where baseball stood at this very moment last year, to get a feel for what we can expect in terms of the trend/aberration percentage.

Thanks to Retrosheet (link on left), we see that these were the division leaders at the end of play on April 30, 2007:

NL East: Atlanta 16-9
NL Central: Milwaukee 16-9
NL West: Arizona 16-11
NL wild card: Mets 15-9

AL East: Boston 16-8
AL Central: Cleveland 14-8
AL West: Angels 15-11
AL wild card: Detroit and Minnesota, 14-11

So that's four of six division leaders (all three AL clubs and Arizona) that proceeded to win their divisions. Although, it should be noted, the Indians and Diamondbacks fell out of their division penthouses for extended periods before regaining their respective leads. The Phillies, whom, you might have heard, won the NL East last year, were 11-14. The Cubs, who overcame the Brewers, were 10-14.

None of the three wild cards went onto the playoffs, and the two teams that did wind up capturing the wild cards, the Rockies (10-16) and Yankees (9-14), both had losing records.

For the individual stat leaders, I called the Elias Sports Bureau, which was kind enough to provide this info. I am violating my own rules by posting traditional stats here.

Joe Mauer was the AL batting leader at .369. He finished at .293. Magglio Ordonez (.344 on April 30 - thanks to baseball-reference.com) won it with a .363.

Alex Rodriguez led the AL with 14 homers and 34 RBI, and he finished with league-leading totals of 54 and 156, respectively.

Dan Haren led the AL with a 1.60 ERA. He finished with a 3.07, third in the league behind John Lackey's 3.01 and Fausto Carmona's 3.06. Lackey had a 2.19 on April 30.

Josh Beckett led the AL with five wins, and he went onto record a league-high 20 wins.

In the NL, Derek Lee was hitting a sparkling .392. He wound up at .317. Matt Holliday (.385 on April 30) led the league at .340.

Jimmy Rollins had an NL-high nine homers, and while Mr. Team to Beat won the NL MVP award, he finished with 20 homers. Prince Fielder (six homers on April 30) topped the NL with 50.

Jeff Francoeur and Adrian Gonzalez were tied for the NL RBI lead with 25. Neither finished among the top 10, as Francoeur tallied 105 and Gonzalez 100. Holliday (19 RBI on April 30) led the NL with 137.

John Maine had the NL's best ERA, a sparkling 1.35. He finished at 3.91, well behind Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy (2.06 in April) at 2.54.

Finally, Dontrelle Willis, of all people, had a league-leading five victories last April. He picked up just five more for the season, while Peavy (three April wins) won 19 games.

Any predictions on which teams and players can keep this up, and which can't?