Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

1. The resilient Mets, still very much in the playoff hunt, will manage to win one of three against the wobbly Phillies _ a moral victory of sorts, given how awful the Mets' roster is right now.

Of course, the weekend will not be empty of low points, none more so than on Saturday morning. When Jerry Manuel orders the entire team to visit the Philadelphia Museum of Art together, Fernando Martinez will trip while walking up the famous steps and execute another face plant. Johan Santana, meanwhile, will pick up a quarter that Alex Cora overthrew in the Museum Restaurant, but when Santana attempts to toss the quarter to David Wright, he'll put too much on it and hurl it all the way into the Delaware River.

John Franco will say, "Watching them almost every day, there's no leadership there. Nobody wants to step forward and be a leader. Something is missing and it's hard to put your finger on it. I mean, how could no one step up and say, 'Art is for dweebs, let's see the Liberty Bell'?"

2. The Yankees will continue to stomp through a soft spot in their schedule, taking three of four from the Blue Jays at the Stadium. Alex Rodriguez will continue his strong play, hitting two homers and driving in seven runs for the weekend while playing improved defense.

"The Philippon Rules make all the difference," A-Rod will say. "It's essential that we follow the Rules by the letter of the law. For instance, the Rules state that, after every game, Derek Jeter must make sure there's toothpaste ready to go on my toothbrush.

Mariano Rivera, meanwhile, will pick up two saves and three RBI for the weekend.

3. Manny Ramirez will return from his suspension tonight in San Diego and have a quiet weekend, going 2-for-11 with a double and one RBI as the Dodgers take two of three from the Padres.

Nevertheless, Manny will make his presence felt when he engages a swarm of bees in conversation, offers his reasoning for the suspension and, having won the bees' support, convinces them to leave the ballpark for the Zoo.

Billy Crystal, on site to support his pal Joe Torre, will crack, "Looks like another example of Manny Beeing Manny. Hey, have you heard the one about me being the Yankees' DH - Designated Hebrew? Wakka Wakka!

For my Midweek Insider, I offered a primer to this month's build-up to the July 31 deadline for non-waivers trades.

It seems that we condition ourselves sometimes to think that every July is drag-out, knock-down crazy, but that's not really the case. As a matter of fact, if you go over the past five years, you can track the "storylines" that emerged, if you will:

2008: Drag-out, knock-down crazy. CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Manny Ramirez (and Jason Bay), Ivan Rodriguez, Ken Griffey, Jr., Rich Harden, Xavier Nady and Joe Blanton get traded.

2007: The Rangers rebuild, trading Teixeira, Eric Gagne and Kenny Lofton. Not much else of interest occurs.

2006: The Yankees wait out the Phillies until the acquisitions of Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle become purchases, rather than bona fide trades, while Duaner Sanchez's decision to go out to eat, rather than order room service, has long-reaching ramifications for the Mets. Not much else, though.

2005: Boooooring. When Kyle Farnsworth is the biggest name, it's a dud July.

2004: Drag-out, knock-down crazy. The four-way deal involving Nomar Garciaparra. The huge Marlins-Dodgers trade that came to define Paul DePodesta's time as Dodgers GM; notice that it worked out pretty well for the Dodgers. Steve Finley to the Dodgers. The Yankees traded Jose Contreras for Esteban Loaiza. The Mets, deluded into thinking they can make the playoffs, acquire Victor Zambrano (can't remember for whom) and Kris Benson.

Conclusion: There are a lot of trades during the years in which there are U.S. presidential elections.

Seriously...right now, it looks like it could be slow. The economy, it appears, will define this trade period.

There are only a handful of teams completely out of it, and the best, potentially available player from that group _ Jake Peavy _ is on the disabled list.

Teams that are still in the race, even marginally, are going to be reluctant to draw the white flag, you'd think, because, since fans have less disposable income, will they be more less likely to purchase tickets for a club out of the race? And on the flip side, how many teams will be willing to take on a lot of money? You saw how the Yankees wouldn't even take on the entire $800,000 that Eric Hinske is owed.

As I noted in my story, even this close to the deadline, you just can't anticipate what sort of developments will emerge. Like Manny's rebellion last year. Like Sanchez's taxi cab accident in '06. It's always a fun month for fans, no matter the results.

Such is the way of our world right now that, while covering the Yankees game last night, I learned of the Fernando Martinez play via Twitter. My fellow media types in Milwaukee, including Newsday teammate David Lennon, Tweeted as though they just saw space aliens land at Miller Park

When I finally saw the play at 2:28 this morning, thanks to the MLB Network, it was not a letdown. Oh my goodness gracious. The only other person I could think of who would fall quite like that was Herman Munster.

What a symbol: The Mets' young hope, the supposed jewel of their farm system, falling flat on his face. It doesn't mean that F-Mart is a flop; you might recall that Melky Cabrera once turned a fly ball into an inside-the-park home run at Fenway Park, back in 2005, and Cabrera delivered the Yankees' game-winning hit last night.

But it sure looks like Martinez, 20, isn't ready yet for prime time. It's an embarrassment, no doubt for Omar Minaya and his vice president of development Tony Bernazard.

Really, these last five games reflect very poorly on the Mets' front office. We all understand how crushing it is to lose Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes at the same time, but most of also were clamoring over the winter (I was admittedly late to this bandwagon, but hopped on just in time, like the protagaonists in "The Darjeeling Limited") for improved roster depth that never arrived.

Maybe Jerry Manuel's post-game meeting, and his insistence that the entire team take the bus together to the ballpark this morning, will deflate some of the pressure the club appears to be feeling. Or, maybe they just have no shot with the team they're throwing out there every day. If it gets much worse than last night, then Citi Field is going to be an ugly, ugly place for the rest of this season.

Good Lord. Have we ever had a baseball season like this? Rain, rain and more rain. The word here at Yankee Stadium is that the rain will stop at 6:45, although The Weather Channel thinks it will be closer to 8:00.

In baseball news, Joe Girardi and Brian Cashman discussed the Eric Hinske trade. As we discussed earlier, Hinske will be used in the four corner positions. The Pirates provided $400,000, roughly half of what Hinske is owed.

"We’ve spent a lot of money," Cashman said. "We’ve been out there. We’ve spent a lot of money."

Joel Sherman reported that the Yankees will send Ramiro Pena to Triple-A Scanton/Wilkes-Barres to make room for Hinske on the roster. That might not happen tonight, as Hinske's flight was delayed by bad weather in Pittsburgh. But whenever it happens, Joel reported, the Yankees want to try to develop Pena as an outfielder, to make him a "super sub."

I admittedly didn't see this trade coming, but Yankees fans should be pleased. Hinske is a perfect bench player for a contender. He's versatile, and at this point in his career, he's content with the complementary role. He can can give the corner infielders and outfielders a rest and, when he's not starting, he gives Joe Girardi a bona fide weapon off the bench.

It's also interesting that the Yankees received "cash considerations" from the Pirates, and gave up a couple of minor leaguers. They surely could have inherited the roughly $800,000 Hinske is owed and gave up less in talent, but they opted to go this route. This model of trade became en vogue last year when the Dodgers acquired both Casey Blake and Manny Ramirez and paid neither player's salary, instead giving up prospects.

Imagine that, the Pirates paying the salary of a Yankees player. That's a twist.

I've never gotten worked up over which players make the All-Star teams and which don't. I'm fine with the fans selecting the starting lineups, and the players picking most of the reserves, and the managers choosing the last few.

The whole "This time it counts" campaign, in which the winning league gets homefield advantage for the World Series? Works for me. No, the format will never be commended by Mensa, but it adds some buzz to the game.

Every team must have a representative? Sure, bring it on. We wouldn't want to offend Oakland mayor Ron Dellums, right?

Yes, when it comes to the All-Star Game, I'm easy to please. But (you knew there would be a but, didn't you?) Major League Baseball caught my eye last week when it released its weekly package of notes and tidbits to the media.

MLB detailed some close races for the fan vote, to start in the game, and I thought to myself, "Self, as someone who will be covering the All-Star Game, whom would you like to see win these close races? For 'show-business' reasons, if you will.s"

MLB included shortstop and outfield among the NL close races, but as you can see from yesterday's release, Hanley Ramirez has pulled away from Jimmy Rollins at shortstop, and Carlos Beltran from Alfonso Soriano for the third outfield spot (although Beltran, as we know, is unlikely to be healthy enough to play).

The AL update will be released today, and I'll post it when I can. But in a pre-emptive strike, let's look at the tight races, and I'll offer who should start, based on 2009 performance, and who would start, based on the more compelling (IMO, of course) storyline.

First base: Mark Teixeira (1,561,292 votes), Kevin Youkilis (1,525,660)

Who should start: Teixeira, by the slightest of margins. He has played in 10 more games than has Youkilis, and he therefore has tallied a higher count of Wins Above Replacment Player (3.3 to 3.1). If you say it should be Youkilis, I won't get into a fist fight with you.

Who would start: Teixeira. Just because of the attention Teixeira received over the winter for his free agency.

Second base: Ian Kinsler (1,791,177), Dustin Pedroia (1,732,787)

Who should start: Kinsler, clearly. Not even close.

Who would start: Pedroia. At the risk of Yankees-Red Sox overload, I think it would be cool to have a double-play combination of Pedroia and Derek Jeter. I also like the idea of both reigning MVPs, Pedroia and Albert Pujols, starting.

Outfield: Jason Bay is comfortably in first place, with 2,0777,504. Then come Ichiro Suzuki (1,455,266), Josh Hamilton (1,385,212), Torii Hunter (1,186,097) and Carl Crawford (1,172,241)

Who should start: Ichiro and Hunter. Hamilton has missed a good chunk of the year on the disabled list, while Crawford's numbers aren't quite as good as the other guys'.

Who would start: Ichiro and Hunter. While Hamilton was a great story last year at Yankee Stadium, Ichiro and Hunter have been around longer both possess that showman's electricity _ Ichiro with his speed, Hunter with his defense (yes, we know, not as good as he used to be, but still...)

Whom would you like to see in the starting lineup?

Ken Davidoff talks baseball and answers your questions today in a live chat at 11 a.m.

Off the 2009 Subway Series finale, I wrote about the great Mariano Rivera. What a memorable night for the Yankees' closer - his 500th career save, and his first career RBI.

Reggie Jackson told me, before the game, that he thought Rivera might be the most dominant player in baseball history, and certainly the most dominant pitcher. I'd probably disagree, if we were going to really break that down, but I certainly appreciate the spirit of Reggie's argument.

Yes, like any closer, Rivera is wholly dependent upon his teammates, to build that lead and take it into the eighth or ninth inning. He acknowledged that early this morning, in his post-game interview. Yet Rivera's efficiency, durability and postsesaon success _ and yes, he has had many chances there and failed, on some notable occasions _ make him a slam-dunk Hall of Famer, and the way with which he carries himself _ no trash talk, no fist pumps, not that there's anything wrong with that _ gives him a regal air.

With Rivera and Trevor Hoffman both still near the top of their games, I'm intrigued to see who will peter out first, and who will windup as the all-time saves leader. Hoffman has a healthy, 71-save lead right now - about two seasons' worth.

This is your second and last chance to win "Munson: The Life and Death of a Yankee Captain," the outstanding biography of Thurman Munson written by Marty Appel. Read yesterday's contest item for the full review.

I'll give this copy to the first person _ besides Dennis, yesterday's winner _ to e-mail me at kdavidoff@newsday.com with the correct answer to this question:

Name the first pitcher that Munson caught in a big-league game.

Not much of a Subway Series so far this season, eh? Since Luis Castillo dropped the Alex Rodriguez pop fly on June 12, we've had four straight yawners, including last night's A.J. Burnett masterpiece.

I wrote about the fact that the Yankees might be sick, but they're not ailing. With a four-game winning streak, they look very good again.

Wally Matthews, meanwhile, takes the Mets' ownership and front office to task for the poor roster construction.

If the Mets (37-36) lose today for the Yankees sweep, they'll be right at .500. And then they'll embark on a seven-day, seven-game, three-city road trip that's looming as huge: Three games at Milwaukee, one at Pittsburgh and three in Philadelphia. They need to go 4-3 on that just for their own mental health, what with Jerry Manuel threatening (facetiously, we think) to jump off a bridge if the Mets fall under .500.

This looks like a win-win. The Cardinals, who have wavered between sublime and subpar baseball this year (but more of the former) receive a lineup upgrade that should appease Tony La Russ and Albert Pujols. There's no reason why the Cards can't win the NL Central this year, and this acquisition increases the likelihood that it will happen. DeRosa will probably spend most of his time at third base, but he has the sort of versatility that allows La Russa to flex his managerial muscles.

This trade officially signals the Indians' concession for 2009, and that's three out of the last four years in which they've gone into white-flag mode. Which is of course an indictment of their front office. Say this, though: They are good at these "sell" trades, when they unload impending free agents to stock their player inventory. Christopher Perez is a high-end pitcher who should help the Indians.

Why didn't the Mets get DeRosa? Because they don't have a pitcher like Perez _ who misses bats, and who is major-league ready _ in their farm system.

This book, "Munson: The Life and Death of a Yankee Captain" (the photo is from the link), is spectacular. If you can get through this book without getting choked up, then you possess impressive resolve.

The author, Marty Appel, worked in the Yankees' media relations department for most of Munson's time with the Yankees, and this book has sort of a meta quality to it. Appel and Munson actually worked together on a Munson autobiography in the late 1970s, partly in order to pre-empt any unauthorized books on Munson as his star rose. But at the time, Munson had little interest in discussing his childhood.

Now, nearly 30 years after Munson's shocking death, Appel decided to make another run at it. He tracked down a brother and sister of Munson, neither of whom had much of a relationship with Thurman when he died. So you learn about Munson's unhappy childhood. And then, with Appel as a first-hand witness, you get great inside information on the '70s Yankees. And incredible details on the days immediately following Munson's plane crash.

Sorry to be so over the top. It's just fantastic, IMO.

And I'll give one copy today to the first person who e-mails me - at kdavidoff@newsday.com - with the correct answer to this question:

Name the last pitcher that Munson caught in a game.

Since the Subway Series Part II opener started 52 minutes late, due to the nightly rain delay, I wound up writing two columns.

As the game progressed, with a deadline of 10:25 (about the seventh inning, it turned out), I wrote about CC Sabathia and his love of the National League.

But once Alex Rodriguez hit his 564th homer, passing Reggie Jackson _ who attended the game _ I switched up to A-Rod and Reggie for Newsday's later editions.

One item I found interesting, in A-Rod's post-game interview, was his mention of "The Philippon Rules." These, named after Dr. Marc Philippon, who performed A-Rod's hip surgery, concern a-Rod's maintenance and rest through the duration of the season. A-Rod made it pretty clear that Joe Girardi and Brian Cashman are in the loop, and will be expected to not push A-Rod to the bad place he was last week. A-Rod said that, at Philippon's urging, he has cut back his pre-game hitting considerably.

Greetings from Citi Field, where the storm just began, and it looks like "The Wizard of Oz" out there. Good Lord. Not sure if we'll be playing ball tonight.

But just because there might not be a game, that doesn't preclude the Mets from presenting more bad injury news. Now John Maine has been shut down until the All-Star break, at the earliest.

What more can you say? Hey, the starting rotation has been the least of the Mets' concerns lately. There are virtually no established starting pitchers available on the trade market. So the Mets will keep trying to tread water until the All-Star break, to cite Jerry Manuel's goal.

Rest in peace, Michael Jackson. Or, as "Simpsons" enthusiasts knew you, John Jay Smith.

1. In the first Subway Series game at Citi Field, the rebounding Yankees will defeat the surviving Mets, 7-2. CC Sabathia will recover from his scare last Sunday and contribute an RBI double in addition to solid pitching.

The game will turn around for the Yankees in the fifth; through four, the Yankees will be hitless and trailing, 2-0, before Brian Cashman drops in unexpectedly on the road game, driving from his Yankee Stadium office across the RFK Bridge.

"You could tell he meant business," Mark Teixeira will say, in comments that will sound vaguely familiar. "He wasn't supposed to be here, but he drove down to Flushing because we hadn't been playing well. Sometimes the principal needs to show up in the classroom if the students have very little regard for the teacher, and wonder how he ever became a teacher in the first place."

2. The Mets will prevail tomorrow night, 6-3, with Tim Redding outpitching A.J. Burnett, but this being the Mets, the day won't go entirely smoothly. Redding will reveal after the game that Jose Reyes, who already escaped a car accident unscathed this week, avoided another catastrophe. '

"Our shortstop was trying to see 'The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3,' Redding will say, "but he entered the wrong theater, where they were playing 'The Proposal.' Thank goodness, Jose got ouf ot there in time."

3. The Yankees will win the rubber game, again by a 7-2 score, to win the Subway Series by a 4-2 margin. The game will fall apart for the Mets after Jerry Manuel orders Livan Hernandez to fake a bunt and slash a hit, and Hernandez confuses that order with a different "Slash" and goes out for a pass.

A confused Girardi will file a protest, even though the Yankees won.

4. Off the Mets game yesterday, I wrote a column about Manuel's typically honest outlook. There's no way they can last for an extended period with this depleted a roster, but in the short term, at least, it's like the Mets have blocked out all of the nonsense surrounding them.

Most important, of course, has been their strong starting pitching, allowing the unaccomplished, non-David Wright part of the lineup to work to scrap together a few runs.

5. To preview the Subway Series, instead of the typical matchups, I did a "Who's worse off?" comparison, in light of both teams' recent struggles.

I though the "fans" comparison was most interesting. I think the vibe has changed at Citi Field, in correlation with the bevy of injuries. It has been much more supportive this week, IMO. Whereas, from listening to the yakosphere, Yankees fans are more fed up with what went on prior to the last two nights.

Which team would you rather be supporting right now? The underachieving, $201-million group that should eventually find its way, or the overachieving (albeit significantly mismanaged), injury-depleted group? Of course, I understand you all have already made your choices, a long time ago. So I guess it's more of a theoretical. Or more of an invitation to discuss whatever you'd like.

I don't know, I'm just making this up as I go along.

Have a great weekend. I'll check in from all three games.