We're back with Part II of our NHL free agency preview. This week, we cover free agents out of Detroit, Minnesota, Montreal, Nashville and New Jersey. Some of the biggest names -- like Forsberg, Gomez and Souray -- are in this 10-pack, including lots of players who the Islanders and Rangers are targeting... enjoy!
TODD BERTUZZI, 32, RW, Detroit Red Wings
2006-07 Stats: 2 G, 2 A, 4 Pts (in 8 games played), 6 PIM, plus-3
Who might be interested: Islanders, Bruins, Panthers, Leafs, Canucks, Capitals
Bertuzzi’s value will depend largely on how he finishes his season as the Red Wings try to forge their names onto Lord Stanley's cup again. So far he’s been unimpressive with just 5 points in the Wings’ first 13 playoff games. His value might fall just low enough to attract middle-market clubs like the Islanders, Canucks and Caps. Toronto, loaded with centers but lacking for wings, might like the looks of Bertuzzi on their second line.
Islanders fans remember Bertuzzi as their first round draft pick in 1993. Bringing back him back to Long Island could bring closure to the Coliseum fans, who still rue the day Mike Milbury traded Bertuzzi (and Bryan McCabe and a 3rd-round draft pick!) to Vancouver for Trevor Linden.
But Bertuzzi's background is filled with trouble spots that make signing him anything but a no-brainer.
First, it's unclear how well Bertuzzi can recover from the back injury that caused him to miss all but 15 games in the regular season. Also hanging over his head is the spectre of his gruesome punch to the back of Steve Moore's neck, which effectively ended Moore's career and led to Gary Bettman suspending Bertuzzi for the last 13 regular-season and seven playoff games of Vancouver’s 2003-04 season.
These circumstances make a return to British Columbia unlikely, although Vancouver needs scoring and could welcome him back at the right price.
The right price might be something in the $3-$4 million per year range, but it will largely depend on demand. The real question is not whether Bertuzzi will get a big contract somewhere; it's who will be desperate enough to sign him, despite his warts?
Islanders? Panthers? Canucks? Caps? All are good candidates.
Rangers? The Rangers probably aren’t interested, not at the price Bertuzzi will command. Their priorities lie elsewhere – re-signing Brendan Shanahan and Michael Nylander, building up their young defense and adding a younger, more talented forward.
Prediction: It wouldn’t be a shock to see Bertuzzi land with the Islanders. He played three seasons with general manager Garth Snow in Vancouver, so Snow will have some insight into Bertuzzi’s value beyond the rink -- and whether he can recover from the aforementioned hardships.
If the Islanders don’t re-sign Ryan Smyth or Jason Blake, and if they can’t grab Scott Gomez or Paul Kariya as free agents, Bertuzzi will be in play. But ultimately we think he’ll land in Toronto, where the pressure will be high but where he’ll also have a solid supporting cast.
MATHIEU SCHNEIDER, 38 (on June 6), D, Detroit Red Wings
2006-07 Stats: 11 G, 41 A, 52 Pts, 66 PIM, plus-12
Who might be interested: Rangers, Hurricanes, Avalanche, Wings, Canadiens, Penguins
Schneider has always been one of the most underrated offensive defensemen in the NHL, but his career is winding down. He’s lost a step and become more fragile; in fact, he was knocked out of this year’s playoffs with a broken wrist.
Schneider will probably ask for and receive a deal similar to the $3.3 million he made this season; it will depend on whether or not his injury affects his readiness for training camp.
He would provide an offensive boost to any team looking for a top-four defenseman who can rack up the minutes, contribute on the power play, and move the puck out of the defensive zone.
The Rangers are one team that meets those qualifications. Schneider is from New York, and previously played two seasons at MSG (1998-99 and 1999-2000). He would take the pressure off the Rangers’ younger players, allowing them to be fresher for key defensive situations.
But Schneider is 38 years old and the Rangers are headed in another direction. Coach Tom Renney likes playing Michal Rozsival with Jaromir Jagr’s power play unit, and Paul Mara is not a bad second option. The Rangers might also like to see whether young Marc Staal is able to contribute anything offensively. So a Schneider revival on Broadway seems like a Plan B.
Carolina and Colorado need a boost on the blueline, and Pittsburgh could sign him as a good third option behind Ryan Whitney and Sergei Gonchar. Montreal, which drafted Schneider 20 years ago, could bring him back if they lose Sheldon Souray and/or Andrei Markov.
Detroit will certainly look at re-signing him for another year or two to play alongside Nicklas Lidstrom.
Islanders? Schneider spent parts of two seasons here in the mid-90s. The Islanders seem happy with Marc-Andre Bergeron manning the power play point, and Chris Campoli could potentially move into a larger role if UFA Tom Poti signs elsewhere. The Islanders, who are at least a year away from being a serious Cup contender, probably won’t be looking for a quick fix on defense – nor should they. Re-signing Poti and getting bigger contributions from Campoli, and possibly Radek Martinek, should do the trick.
Prediction: Colorado lacks experience on the blueline, but they do have a good foundation of young defensemen that would protect Schneider from overuse. The Avs are well aware of Schneider’s capabilities, having faced him in the Western Conference for the past six seasons. Joe Sakic might only have a year or two left, so Colorado GM Francois Giguere may feel compelled to give his captain a few more playoff seasons before he hangs ‘em up. Schneider could be one of the missing pieces that get the Avalanche back in the playoffs.
NIKLAS BACKSTROM, 29, G, Minnesota Wild
2006-07 Stats: 23-8-6, 1.97 GAA, .930 save percentage
Who might be interested: Wild, Wings, Bruins, Panthers, Lightning, Coyotes
Backstrom, 29, is not a fresh-faced kid, but he took the NHL by storm when Minnesota's No. 1 goaltender, Manny Fernandez, injured his knee in late January. Backstrom carried the Wild to the playoffs, going 18-3-3 from Feb. 1 on.
He'll attract attention as a No. 1 goaltender, and the Wild reportedly are strongly considering buying out Fernandez to make room for Backstrom.
It'll cost them a $1.66 million cap hit for the next four years, but at least they wouldn't be paying two goaltenders a starter's salary.
The smart money says Backstrom will stay with the Wild. But there are several clubs which could try to pursuade him to switch teams.
Detroit may give him a look if Dominik Hasek retires or signs elsewhere. The Bruins need goaltending help, but might wonder how much of an upgrade Backstrom would be over Tim Thomas. (The Bruins might also want to leave room on their roster for goaltending prospect Tuukka Rask.)
Florida and Tampa Bay both have shaky goaltending situations. Tampa would like to dump and replace Marc Denis and Florida needs a stabilizer in net after the disastrous trade of Roberto Luongo.
Phoenix might be in the market if Curtis Joseph doesn't re-sign for another year.
Rangers? Islanders? Neither needs a goaltender as long as Rick DiPietro and Henrik Lundqvist are healthy.
Prediction: If Minnesota GM Doug Risebrough is convinced Backstrom is the answer in net, he should shop Fernandez at the NHL entry draft. It'll be a tough sell, since Fernandez is still owed two years and $9.25 million on his contract. So Risebrough probably will have to buy out Fernandez, since Minnesota doesn't have a lot of extra cap room to play with.
Minnesota would also like to add another scorer (Jason Blake?) this offseason, which they won't be able to do without freeing up more cap space. All the evidence points to Backstrom staying in Minnesota, and Fernandez playing elsewhere in 2007-08.
SHELDON SOURAY, 30, D, Montreal Canadiens
2006-07 Stats: 26 G, 38 A, 64 Pts, 135 PIM, minus-28
Who might be interested: Islanders, Canadiens, Thrashers, Flames, Blackhawks, Avalanche, Wings, Devils, Flyers, Capitals
Souray couldn't have picked a better time to have the best season of his career. Prior to his first foray into the free-agent market, he blasted home 26 goals, including an NHL-record 19 on the power play. His 64 points were third-best among defensemen and he added 135 penalty minutes to boot.
But there are some red flags.
First, there was Souray's ghastly minus-28 rating, last among all Montreal players. Plus/minus can be a deceiving stat, but when it's tilted so far to one side, it can't be discredited.
Second is the fact that despite his offensive prowess, Souray wasn't even the top defenseman on his own team in terms of ice time. That honor went to Andrei Markov -- who, by the way, also happens to be an unrestricted free agent.
That means that Souray wasn't trusted or well-conditioned enough to play the big minutes that coaches expect from a No. 1 defenseman. This is especially alarming considering Souray will likely earn more than $6.5 or $7 million next season -- that's a No. 1 defenseman's salary.
Of course, that won't stop teams from throwing enormous wads of cash at him, hoping he can fix their power play, stabilize their backline, cure cancer, and do whatever else a human being is supposed to when makes that kind of money.
The Islanders are among the many teams that would benefit greatly from adding a dominant power play defenseman. Souray's defensive lapses will be easier to overlook if he scores 12-plus power play goals and pairs with Brendan Witt to hammer Jaromir Jagr, Sidney Crosby, Simon Gagne, and Alexander Ovechkin 20-25 times per season.
The Canadiens will try hard to keep him, but I suspect they'll realize that Markov is, in many ways, just as important to their team as Souray, and they'll avoid being dragged into a bidding war.
Atlanta, Calgary, Colorado and Detroit could all use another top-four defenseman and wouldn't be inhibited by cap concerns.
If the Devils lose Brian Rafalski, they could bring Souray back to New Jersey as their power play quarterback. (But you wonder if Lou Lamoriello thinks Souray worthy of Scott Stevens-like money and status in the locker room.)
The Capitals, who haven't had much luck drafting and developing quality defensemen in the past few years, might tab Souray as a big piece in the puzzle as they try to build a team around Ovechkin.
The Flyers could buy Souray as a new cornerstone on defense -- something they haven't had since Eric Desjardins retired.
Likewise, Chicago would be willing to sign Souray to a long-term deal as a stalwart on defense. The Blackhawks are such a disorganized mess, it wouldn't be shocking if they just completely overlooked Souray's shortcomings.
Rangers? Sure, they'd love to have Souray. In the ancient, pre-cap days, they'd be a major contender for him. But you can't just buy anyone you want these days, and the Rangers are walking a financial tightrope this summer.
Prediction: Philadelphia seems like the favorite here. GM Paul Holmgren will like Souray's toughness, and he could take some of the pressure off Joni Pitkanen to carry the team's power play. After shedding the contracts of Mike York, Peter Forsberg and Petr Nedved, the Flyers aren't short of cash. A defense headlined by Souray, Pitkanen, Derian Hatcher, Denis Gauthier and impressive youngster Braydon Coburn could help the Flyers turn things around in the Atlantic Division.
ANDREI MARKOV, 28, D, Montreal Canadiens
2006-07 Stats: 6 G, 43 A, 49 Pts, 56 PIM, plus-2
Who might be interested: Islanders, Rangers, Canadiens, Thrashers, Flames, Avalanche, Wings, Oilers, Devils, Sharks
Markov is an interesting case study, especially when compared with Souray. The comparison is apt, since the Canadiens teammates are two of the top four free agent defensemen (along with Kimmo Timonen and Brian Rafalski) on the market this summer.
Souray outscored Markov by 15 points, tallied 20 more goals than Markov and grabbed all the headlines. He's physical and better equipped to handle larger NHL forwards. Goals and hits are what put people in the seats, and Souray will undoubtedly receive a larger contract than the less-experienced Markov. But in terms of value, the difference may not be as obvious as you'd think.
Markov led the Habs in total ice time and shorthanded ice time and was a plus-2 compared with Souray's hideous minus-28. Markov is also five years younger.
Because of his lesser offensive numbers, and also because of knee injury he suffered at this spring's World Championships, Markov will probably get a contract paying him closer to $4 million/season, whereas Souray will hit the jackpot at upwards of $6.5 million. That's a difference of $2.5 million/season. That's the kind of money that can easily be re-invested in another solid free agent or a trade commodity -- something worth thinking about.
Markov should attract a good number of teams looking for young talent at a relatively cheap price.
The Islanders certainly fall into that category. Signing Markov would give the Islanders (along with Marc-Andre Bergeron) two top power play defensemen. But would they be willing to sink $4 million/season into a player who isn't a marquee name? Charles Wang and his board might find it more beneficial to invest the same money in Paul Kariya, Scott Gomez, Daniel Briere or Brian Rafalski.
The Rangers could use another defenseman, especially one who can help their power play -- but even at $4 million/season, Markov could be out of their price range.
If the Canadiens lose Souray, which seems likely, they'll probably push hard to keep Markov. GM Bob Gainey is well aware of dangers of angering his city's hockey-mad fan base.
If they elect to keep Souray, it might be hard for them to justify shelling out another $4 million for a No. 2 defenseman, especially since that would just about kill their available cap space.
Atlanta, Calgary and Edmonton would probably get into the bidding then and hope the big boys (Detroit, Montreal, Colorado) don't push the market out of range.
New Jersey might need a replacement for Brian Rafalski, and signing Markov would probably cost less than re-signing Rafalski, who made $4.2 million this season.
The Sharks could lose both Scott Hannan and Craig Rivet, so they'll have openings on defense. Detroit will be in the market if Mathieu Schneider flies the coup, and Colorado needs another quality d-man.
Prediction: From here, the smart move is for Montreal to re-sign Markov after allowing Souray to walk. They may have to overpay, but the move makes sense from both a financial and a hockey standpoint. He'll stay in bleu, blanc et rouge.
PETER FORSBERG, 33, C, Nashville Predators
2006-07 Stats: 13 G, 42 A, 55 Pts, 88 PIM, plus-7
Who might be interested: Islanders, Rangers, Thrashers, Avalanche, Wings, Panthers, Kings, Canadiens, Coyotes, Capitals
Forsberg's history of ankle injuries has been well-documented, so we won't dwell on it here.
What you need to know is that, when healthy, Forsberg is still a dominant player and probably the game's best playmaker. In 22 games with Nashville, including five playoff games, he scored 19 points -- which only proves that if he's feeling good, he can produce like few others in the game.
Is he healthy? Can he stay healthy? Will he retire or go back to Sweden? Only time will tell. But he's sure to attract plenty of interest, no matter what the circumstances.
Both the Islanders and Rangers would love to bring a player of his stature on board.
Alexei Yashin isn't the answer up the middle for the Islanders. Paired with a bona fide scorer like Ryan Smyth, the two could bring some magic back to Nassau, along with some name recognition.
The Rangers don't need another marquee name, but we all know of the Garden's fascination with star players. If Michael Nylander signs somewhere else, the Rangers will desperately need to sign a replacement No. 1 center to keep Jaromir Jagr happy. Scott Gomez is likely their top choice, but Forsberg would be a good backup option. The question is whether the Rangers -- or the Islanders for that matter -- would be willing to commit $5 or $6 million per year to a player whose health is always in jeopardy.
The Avalanche could try to bring him back to Colorado, where he was wildly popular during his eight seasons there. The Avs also badly need another center, and they need to score some public relations points after missing the playoffs for the first time since arriving in Denver.
If Keith Tkachuk and Slava Kozlov depart, the Thrashers face the prospect of losing two of their top six forwards. Forsberg would be a very welcome sight in powder blue.
Detroit is well aware of Forsberg's skills, and if they fall short of a cup, might go on a spending spree to try to plug their gaps at forward.
Florida, emboldened by their impressive stretch drive and empowered by a good amount of space under the cap, would become a solid competitor in the Southeast if they add Forsberg and a top goaltender (J.S. Giguere?). The Panthers need another forward to take the pressure off Olli Jokinen and could lose their No. 2 center, Jozef Stumpel, to free agency.
Montreal also has issues at forward, although their ability to fill holes up front will hinge on how they address Sheldon Souray and Andrei Markov's free agency. But if the Habs can somehow dump Alexei Kovalev and/or Sergei Samsonov, they'd have more than enough cap room to bring in another top center. They could also trade younger players like Chris Higgins or Michael Ryder, a restricted free agent who is owed a raise.
Washington has loads of money to spend, lots of empty seats to fill, and a dream combination of Ovechkin and Forsberg sounds like perfect harmony, doesn't it? It's about time the Caps gave Ovechkin a world-class center.
Los Angeles and Phoenix could also use Forsberg as a centerpiece to a rebuilding project, and his name would help sell jerseys and put butts in the seats.
Prediction: Forsberg's situation lends itself to lots of speculation, and he is both attractive and unattractive for many reasons. But ultimately we think he ends up in Atlanta, where he'll have lots of fun dishing the puck Marian Hossa and Ilya Kovalchuk.
PAUL KARIYA, 32, LW, Nashville Predators
2006-07 Stats: 24 G, 52 A, 76 Pts, 36 PIM, plus-6
Who might be interested: Islanders, Rangers, Predators, Kings, Wild, Canadiens, Blues, Leafs
A lot of people forget that Kariya was once a dominant NHL player -- and he’s still only 32. Nashville GM David Poile’s decision to bring Kariya on board has been one of the smartest in the post-lockout era. Kariya not only led the Preds in scoring for two straight years, but he helped a young team without a marquee name draw fans in an otherwise indifferent hockey city.
Those factors make Nashville a top candidate to retain him. Of course, for all he means to the team and the city, Kariya will probably charge a premium – something in the range of three years at $5.25 million per year.
The Islanders and Rangers will take a good look at Kariya, who would enhance either team’s attack at a slightly cheaper price that Chris Drury, Daniel Briere, or Scott Gomez.
Kariya is like a shot of adrenaline to any offense, and few teams need that as badly as the Islanders. Unlike Viktor Kozlov, Alexei Yashin and Miroslav Satan, Kariya brings speed as well as talent, and could conceivably be an ideal replacement for Jason Blake, if he goes elsewhere.
The Rangers, who once seemed to be leaning away from one-dimensional nice guys like Kariya, may actually have a role for him on their team with rugged customers like Sean Avery, Ryan Callahan, Ryan Hollweg and Brendan Shanahan manning their roster. But like all post-NHL decisions, the Rangers’ ability to re-sign Kariya will come down to dollars, cents, and sense. In other words, will they have enough cap room to sign him, and would it make sense to bring him in at the price?
Other candidates? Minnesota is expected to pursue both Kariya and Blake. Montreal could use another top-six forward. Toronto needs another wing.
The Blues have lots of experience at forward and lots of youth on defense, and they could be a dark horse playoff team if they add someone like Kariya. They’ll also like the way Kariya helped transform Nashville into a contender.
The Kings know Kariya was successful in Anaheim, and could bring him into to help spread the offensive workload among Anze Kopitar, Alexander Frolov and Mike Cammalleri.
Prediction: The Predators would be nuts to let Kariya go. Along with Tomas Vokoun, he’s become the face of their team. He’s also highly marketable, which is important in Nashville. Stranger things have happened, but we don’t see any way the Preds let him walk.
KIMMO TIMONEN, 32, D, Nashville Predators
2006-07 Stats: 13 G, 42 A, 55 Pts, 42 PIM, plus-20
Who might be interested: Islanders, Predators, Hurricanes, Canadiens, Flyers, Sharks
There are moments in life when you are just blown away by stupidity. One of those occurred recently when I was doing some research on Kimmo Timonen and I discovered how he ended up a Predator. Turns out, he was traded by the Kings… for future considerations -- ouch!
Ouch because Timonen has since developed into once of the league’s best attacking defensemen. He’s great on the power play and led the Predators in ice time last year.
He’s going to help someone next year, but it might not be the Predators. Puck-moving defensemen don’t grow on trees, and Nashville will have some stiff competition for Timonen’s services.
Nashville will try very hard to keep Timonen – although not as hard as they’ll try to keep Paul Kariya. The Predators would need to pay Timonen at least $1.5 million more per year than power-play specialist Marek Zidlicky, who makes about $3.2 million. The Preds should have ample salary cap room to make it happen, but there is some question as to whether they’re operating on a tighter budget than the estimated $48-49 million salary cup of next year. What happens if other teams’ ambitions to sign Timonen exceed the Predators’ ambitions to sign him at the right price?
Carolina will welcome back a healthy Frantisek Kaberle this year, but they might still be looking for a more imposing power play quarterback. Timonen is exactly that.
Montreal could be desperate for blueline help if they lose Andrei Markov or Sheldon Souray (or both). The Flyers need to improve their speed on defense and might appeal to Timonen because his brother Jussi is in their farm system. San Jose will dive heavily into the market for defensemen if they lose Scott Hannan and Craig Rivet.
The Islanders will be looking to make some splashy moves, because they have lots of cap room, lots of roster spots available, and they could lose both Ryan Smyth and Jason Blake, along with Tom Poti.
The Islanders would probably prefer a big name like Sheldon Souray or Brian Rafalski, and if they didn’t get either of those players, they'd settle for re-signing Poti. But if Garth Snow is a smart man, he’ll give Timonen’s agent a call soon after July 1.
Prediction: It will be tough negotiating, but Nashville will keep Timonen. Don’t forget Nashville narrowly missed on the President’s Trophy, and they had great chemistry all year long. Removing Timonen from the top of their depth chart would mean more even-strength minutes for the likes of Zidlicky and more power-play time for youngsters Shea Weber and Ryan Suter. It’s a load Nashville could probably carry if the bidding got out of control, but there are probably just enough other top free-agent defensemen available to satisfy market demand.
SCOTT GOMEZ, 27, C, New Jersey Devils
2006-07 Stats: 13 G, 47 A, 60 Pts, 42 PIM, plus-7
Who might be interested: Islanders, Rangers, Devils, Thrashers, Avalanche, Panthers, Canadiens, Flyers, Blues, Capitals
Gomez is an outstanding attacking player, capable of lugging the puck from end-to-end, weaving through traffic, and setting up his wingers with uncanny acumen. He’s schooled in the Devils’ defense-first system, which means that while he won’t be mistaken for a Selke Trophy candidate, he won’t ignore his own end of the ice. He's rugged, though undersized, and will initiate contact to win battles for the puck.
But one big downside to Gomez might get lost in all the excitement about a 27-year-old with his talents hitting the market: He is not a dominant player.
He only scored 13 goals this year, and only once in his career has he scored more than 20. Once! You can’t be a dominant player if you’re not physically imposing (Gomez is just 5-11, 200 pounds), defensively vexing (he’s not) or capable of pouring lots of goals into the net.
That probably won’t stop him from getting a huge contract, probably something approaching $6.5 million, considering Daniel Briere and Chris Drury could score up to $7 million.
But any team willing to pay that price should be willing to accept Gomez’s shortcomings as well. He’s a tremdously exciting player, and while excitement can take you pretty far in today’s NHL, it’s not enough to make a bad team good or a good team great. So, with some cynicism, we’ll attempt to handicap Gomez’s next employer.
There is no doubt the Islanders and Rangers will be interested, if for no other reason that to drive the market up and ensure the Devils can’t re-sign him. New Jersey knows Gomez is a key cog in their fragile forward group, but might feel emboldened by the strong play of Zach Parise and Brian Gionta in the playoffs. Combined with Lou Lamoriello’s historic tendencies towards frugality bordering on parsimony, it doesn’t seem New Jersey is a serious contender to re-sign the Alaskan native.
The Islanders know their offense will need a jump-start, especially if they lose sparkplug Jason Blake. Gomez is a similar player in many ways. He won’t replace Blake’s 40 goals, but he can play with an edge and won’t turn into a puck-dangling black hole the way Blake sometimes did. What the Islanders could lose in goal-scoring, they’d gain in playmaking ability, youth, and maybe even more speed. And Islanders fans would revel in grabbing a top player from a Devils team that has tormented them the past few years.
The Rangers will have a different approach. They face much tighter salary cap constraints, but might have to open their wallet if Michael Nylander’s agent convinces him he’d be better off playing somewhere else for more money. Gomez would add more speed to a Rangers team that proved it could skate with the likes of Buffalo in the playoffs, but would he have the same chemistry and Nylander did with Jagr? If the Rangers do sign Nylander, it’s not impossible they’d also try to grab Gomez, but they’d probably have to trade Petr Prucha (unwise) or Marek Malik (unlikely) in order to free up enough cap space to accommodate him.
Lots of other teams, not the least of which are the center-starved Thrashers and Caps, might be willing to throw big money at Gomez. Florida, Colorado and Montreal are all looking for No. 2 centers, and Gomez would be an excellent complement to Olli Jokinen, Joe Sakic or Saku Koivu, respectively. Philadelphia lacks an established No. 1 center to play with Simon Gagne and would also love to see Gomez out of New Jersey. St. Louis president John Davidson should have an excellent scouting report on Gomez after watching him torch the Rangers during his seven seasons in East Rutherford.
Prediction: The market for Gomez is wide-open, but all the pieces are in place for him to land on Long Island. He’s familiar with the metro area, he knows the division and the players, and he wouldn’t have to move far.
He’d fit in well with Ted Nolan’s coaching style, and he’d provide a jolt of energy to the Coliseum. The Islanders might just about be ready to give up on the idea Alexei Yashin will ever be a first-line center again, and signing Gomez would be a clear message both to Yashin, and to their tortured fan base that they’ve finally moved on.
BRIAN RAFALSKI, 33, D, New Jersey Devils
2006-07 Stats: 8 G, 47 A, 55 Pts, 34 PIM, plus-4
Who might be interested: Islanders, Rangers, Devils, Canadiens, Flames, Avalanche, Wings, Sharks
Rafalski has two Stanley Cup rings in his dossier and 10 years of pro experience under his belt.
He’s a great offensive player who gets the puck on net, distributes it effectively, and shows poise with it on his stick
He seems younger than he is, but he spent three professional seasons in Europe before signing with New Jersey in 1999. At 33 years old, teams shouldn’t expect much more than the 45-50 points he’s averaged with the Devils the last five years.
Rafalski has value beyond his statistics, because he’s a smart defensive player, and though undersized, is not a big liability in his own end.
Rafalski made $4.2 million last year and will probably get a raise of at least $1 million if he hits the open market.
Teams in the market for a top puck-moving defensemen include the Islanders and Rangers, who would be delighted to grab him from division rival New Jersey.
Montreal will give Rafalski serious consideration if they lose one of their Big Two on defense. Detroit also might need a replacement for Mathieu Schneider, and the Sharks might need to replace Scott Hannan (if they don't trust their young guys to do it.)
If the price is right, Calgary might look at Rafalski to help replace UFA Roman Hamrlik.
Colorado might be looking for one more player to anchor a solid young defense.
New Jersey will obviously try to re-sign Rafalski before he's set free on July 1, but if Rafalski -- like teammate Scott Gomez -- is determined to test the open market, there's probably not much the Devils can do.
The Islanders and Rangers both could use a player with Rafalski's considerable offensive credentials, but might not like the idea of locking up a defenseman who will be 34 when the season begins to a three- or four-year deal.
The Rangers, for one, may be too hamstrung financially to afford him, and the Islanders might feel their are cheaper or younger options, like Tom Poti, San Jose's Scott Hannan, or even the Predators' Kimmo Timonen.
Prediction: Rafalski will fill a void in a city that loses one of its top unrestricted defensemen -- San Jose, Detroit or Montreal. The Canadiens could lose both Markov and Souray, so we'll say he fits in there.
Next week: We cover the Islanders' and Rangers' UFAs, including Blake, Smyth, Poti, Nylander and Shanahan.
Also, we move along to look at some other top free agents, including Comrie, Joseph, Recchi, Roberts and Hannan. Make sure you check back for Part III, debuting next week.
Comments (18)
Are you serious on some of this stuff?
The Pens interested in Lang as a 3rd line center guy, who can help their PP? Yes the Pens need help at center with face off's. Lang is not even in the top 85 in the NHL. In the playoffs he is less that 33% and has never been a good FO guy. Why would the Pens be interested in him? They don't need help on the PP. Staal who barely played on either unit should be promoted.
Also the Pens should be interested in Kariya. Match him with Crosby and no one will be able to catch them going up ice. Kariya would have 50-60 goals easily.
Your salaries on some of these guys is way too much. Sutton for $2.5M. Who pays a known #4, but really a #5 D guy $2.5M? Really? I know the NYR over pay and a few western teams, but come on...
Very interesting stuff these last two columns... really enjoyed reading your viewpoints. Wouldn't mind seeing Gomez in an Isles uniform if they can't sign Blake. Souray would really fill out the D considering we probably have lost Sean Hill permanently considering his age (let alone the suspension).
I had to laugh at the fact that this write up had the Islanders interested in just about EVERY UFA on the list. The one line that I thought was VERY accurate, was this, "The Islanders might just about be ready to give up on the idea Alexei Yashin will ever be a first-line center again, and signing Gomez would be a clear message both to Yashin, and to their tortured fan base that they’ve finally moved on" Buying out Yashin should be the second move of the offseason, after signing Smyth.....anything else would be a moot point.
I don't agree with some things said because the Islanders are not interested in every single player here and the rangers are likely to trade malik and possibly prucha because prucha cant handle the puck anymore and malik has to many lapses... but look for the rangers to trade montoya for a pick high in the draft since its pretty obvious lundqvist is the future and not montoya.
In this round of FAs, I believe most will remain with their teams. The ones that switch will likely be Forsberg (back to COL), Gomez, and Souray and/or Markov. Gomez is definitely out of Jersey, as they will need their limited cap space to sign Rafalski (and give him a deserved raise). While Gomez is a fantastic playmaker with speed and exceptional puckhandling ability, he can be "Nedved-esque" at times when he's coasting around the ice. He would undoubtedly be a great #2 center for the Rangers (between Shanny & Avery) or #1 center for the Isles (between Hunter and smyth, or alongside satan). Unfortunately, I think he will be looking solely for the big contract, which will be doled out by a Western Conference team...possibly the Kings, Colorado, Phoenix, or St. Louis (if they don't resign Tkachuk). Of course, both local teams will make a pitch for him, as Mike correctly states, to at least drive his price up. Forsberg is too much of a risk for too high a price. Again, local interest will be there, but not as keen as that for Gomez or Drury. The most intriguing set of FAs in this batch are Montreal's D-men. Top PP defensemen are few and far between. Therefore, after considerable deliberation and competition from other interested teams, Montreal will pony up the big bucks for Souray. He is Montreal one true dominant player. Markov is the top defensive D-man on the market and I anticipate that the Rangers will be very agressive in pursuing him (after losing out on the other Markov to Detroit last year). With Rachunek out, they need a trusted defensemen to free up Mara on offense. The Isles, on the other hand, will probably resign Hill for "the home team discount" after the rejuventated Hill disgraced himself with the performancing enhancing substances that allowed him to rough up Jaromir Jagr without consequence.
I agree with Espo on the lack of the Pens' interest in Lang. Kariya as a Pen would be exciting to see, but the Pens have a plethora of young talented forwards. It's rugged wingers and improved defense they need. As for the salaries, teams will pay based on need and market supply. Sutton, although slow and physical, will get in the neighborhood of $2.5M...look at Witt, Hill and Poti for example!
Finally, as to those "Prucha haters" out there: enough already! The sophmore has had two consecutive 20-goal/40-point seasons! Would you rather have Ortmeyer taking his roster spot with his 1 goal per 50 game average?! I agree Montaya is expendable, but only for the right price (e.g., package w/ NY's 1st rounder for a top 6 1st round pick). As much as it pains me to say it, Malik will be staying for his final contract year and continue his chemistry with Rosival. Maybe improved 2nd line scoring can make up for Malik's costly blunders.
I hope the Isles can get both Smith and Blake under contract. Thereby, possibly signing say Paul Kariya or Gomez would be fantasic. To add to the plate timonen would make the Isles a fine contender.
It will be interesting. However, please not all the potential Snow gave up for Smith. Smith has to be back.
Appreciate everyone's comments so far... One word of warning: Yes, it probably does seem like I have the local teams interested in everyone, but I think I explain the reasons why fairly well. I also am careful to note whether a given player is a top target for the Islanders and Rangers or just a backup plan.
The Islanders have lots of open roster spots and could potentially lose two of their most important players, so until we know more about the Smyth & Blake situations, we have to assume they're interested in all different sorts of top-six forwards, and possibly, depending on Poti & Hill, a top-four defenseman.
The Rangers are under tighter financial limitations because they have more players under contract and less cap space. They also seem very much inclined to re-sign both of their big UFA's, Shanahan and Nylander, which means they'll have barely enough cap room left to sign another big name. Still, it's far from guaranteed that Shanahan and Nylander will return. Shanahan could still choose to retire, and Nylander might be pursuaded to cash in on his career season and sign somewhere else for more money.
If one or both of those happen, the door swings wide open for the Rangers. Not only will they have money to spend, but they'll have two very significant players to replace. That would make the major players for most of the big name forwards. Hence, I have included them as a potential interested party for most free agents.
LET'S GO ISLANDERS Scott Gomez is ok...we need to sign Smyth and Blake, and buy-out Yashin, and try to trade Satan...i do not like Satan on my team, he's a loafer, never in the right place, and is a slow skater...AND ALL YOU PEOPLE WHO SPELL SMYTH AS S-M-I-T-H, YOU ARE SPELLING IT WRONG, AND YOU OBVIOUSLY HAVE NO KNOWLEDGE OF HOCKEY
Mark,
The S-M-I-T-H spelling of Ryan Smyth's name has been killing me for a long time as I read through the various posts, glad you brought it up.
Islanders, Kariya would be a nice fit. I would love for them to make a move for Drury. Resign Smyth and make him the Captain, let Blake go to Minny. I don't like Gomez, just not impressed. A punishing defeseman would be nice. Trade Satan and Bates on draft day, resign Kozlov and let Tambalini, Bergenheim and Nokelinin get a legit shot at making the team. Hilbert and Zednik are expendable. MOST of all Buyout Yashin ASAP. NOBODY will come here with that lazy ass on this team!!!!!!!!!
Poti and Asham should be given another shot!
As much as I'd like to see Yashin go, Wang has already been rumored to have said he won't get rid of Yashin. He considers him to be a good friend, and a lot of people think that Wang won't get rid of Yashin because it would be admitting to a mistake, and he already did that once with Peca. Smyth will probably be back and be offered the C, which means it won't be such a big deal when Nolan does the smart thing and demotes Yashin, again, to the 4 line and gives him 7 minutes of ice time. Then again, stripping him of all letters could prove to be the fire under his ass that he needs to start being the bigtime player that his paycheck says he should be.
Blake, as much as I love him probably won't be back because he wants what the Islanders feel is too many years at his age.
Looking at some of the posts here, I'd have to say yes to droping Hilbert. He works his but off but it results in nothing. He has a serious inability to score, ringing countless shots off either the posts or glass. Tambellini could probably step in there with Hilbert's ice time and produce 3 times more both offensively and defensively. As for Zednik, he was hurt last year so Islanders' fans didn't get to see the real Richard Zednik. He has been a big game player his entire career, and if given a chance at 100% health, he'll prove it to us. Bates can certainly go, and while Satan is valuable, trading him will be the only way to get Briere or Drury since Miro gets along with neither of them. Satan and Bates could be packaged for a first round pick, which wouldnt be so bad considering the Islanders gave theres up and are pick-less in the first round right now. Milbury is notorious for draft day trading and don't be surprised to see some of that eagerness to pull the trigger trickle down to Garth Snow. Poti, Asham, and Hunter are going to be around for a while. All three are "Ted Nolan players" and they have talent. Poti had the defensive season of his life playing for Nolan and led the team in assists. Asham is a great enforcer with some scoring ability which include an absolute bomb for a slap shot. Hunter is THE Islander. Throw him on the dynasty team of the early 80's and he fits in perfectly. He represents old school Islanders hockey with his grit, desire, his pride to wear the Islanders sweater, and he's everything a New York Islander should be. Expect him to recieve a long term deal this offseason as a restricted free agent, and possibly end up wearing an A next season.
After that you keep everyone else, add a big name, and if everyone is healthy they should be able to pull off the 4th or 5th seed next season, maybe even take the division should they improve more than the rest of the division.
LIU,
Where did you hear that the Isles have a shot at trading Yashin? Most of the other stuff has credibility, so I'm very curious.
IMO the Isles will do everything possible to keep Smyth, which will be enough. Though he is loved by all, he is more of a character player than a “producer”, and the Isles definitely need a "character" captain enough to overpay for him. He will be greatly appreciated in Uniondale.
There are some big question marks with this team.
1. Yashin. can they afford the most overpaid 2nd line wing (he shouldn't see the center position again) in their history. I expect he will finish out his contract as an Islander. Let's hope he comes back playing like he did the first 60 days of the season.
2. Smyth/Blake. Blake will either take the golf option (FL) or a team that will appreciate his work ethic like Buffalo, Boston, Philly or Minn. I don't know too much about Jason personally, but love to watch him play. I get the feeling, though, that he is the last person invited to his own birthday parties.
I really think Smyth will be an Islander... and that will eat up a lot of cap space.
3. Poti. Poti may have been the biggest contributor to the blue line after marty got hurt, and Witt got all banged up. Those two factors are almost givens in those players' histories. So Poti is pretty valuable if he is not replaced. They don't need/ can't afford Souray... I really wish they could have gotten Coburn for Zhitnik (like the Flyers did), but I think Poti stays... and has another good season.
4. Bergenhiem, Tambellini, Nielsen, Okposo, Comeau and Nokielinen. I think Tambellini, Bergenhiem and Nokie are going to get serious looks in training camp. I think the decision on Bergy has to be made before then because he would need a one-way to stay, or he goes into the UFA category. So I assume two roster spots would be filled by those guys next year and possibly a third. Hilbert and Bates are signed, but maybe trade bait on draft day. If they make any play for a forward it would be for Gomez, who INSTANTLY becomes their #1 center.
5. CHRIS SIMON… yes… CHRIS SIMON. 32 division games. The only other players last year that would stand up for their teammates were Witt and Asham (BOTH PLAYING HURT) They are either going to promote less a talented guy like Fata (if he still warrants an AHL contract after his suspension) to be their 7th defenseman (rotating with Campoli against bigger teams) or they are going to re-sign Simon who was a contributor on and off the ice before THE INCIDENT. I personally don’t think they have room for him on the roster, as I thought last year. But I grew to appreciate Chris’ contributions as the season wore on. This is going to be one of the less talked about decisions outside the “Committee” but it will be discussed inside the coliseum walls until Simon finds a job somewhere.
6. Snow/Nolan. I think they made some decisions last year to bring some guys in that fit in a character profile. I think they will want to remain consistent on that, and that will mean guys like Sillinger, Witt, Simon, Hill and Park will be developed at the AHL level. They definitely need a center, and are thin there in the AHL. Nokie is third liner at best. That’s why Gomez makes so much sense for them. I don’t see Robitaille or Bates in Uniondale next year. That leaves Sillinger, Kozlov and Park. Gomez is going to get a nice offer soon.
As far as defensively I really don’t see as much “need” here. Marty/Witt should be the number one pair going into next year. I’d like to see Poti back with Bergeron. Gervais showed some upside when he came back, and Campoli should improve after being paired with Meyer last year. I really can’t see Meyer being asked back except to add AHL depth.
This is why I can’t see too much money going out to a big name “D”. It would be nice to see them get some depth with Timonen. The only way they can afford that is if they use three forwards with less than 100 NHL games… and do not resign Kozlov or Zednik. The biggest question on defense is “who will be their new coach?”
The next few months are going to be pretty interesting.
Mike- Great job on the draft blogs. UFA is always a crapshoot and so the speculation is part of the fun. Great research on these guys. I know I will be referring back to your articles if the Islanders sign any of the UFA's to get some additional insight on them.
Regardless of the combination of forwards the Isles end up with (Blake?Smyth?UFA?) I think they should go for either of Montreal's big two D-men. One of those guys plus the defense we already have plus DP in goal will make us tough to score on. The Isles could win many low scoring games.
oh and gomez would actually be a really smart signing for the capitals who are so far under the cap it's retarded. ovechkin needs a center!!!!!
Toronto was rumored to have expressed intrest in Yashin for McCabe. That's all I was saying but that will never happen because it's been pretty much made official that he's staying and has offered to turn over his C, and the C will then probably be offered to Smyth to help convince him to stay. If Smyth doesnt come back, however, I think Sillinger (yes I said Sillinger) would make a great captain. At age 36, he had the best offensive season of his career, he played a good series against Buffalo, and he was vital in a leadership role becoming a guy that young players could ralley behind. I was also like to see Hunter have a shot at an A. He can be vocal guy in the right spot on the bench and he brings an 110% to the ice every night.
Wow if Gomez leaves NJ and ends up on Long Island I'll be really disappointed. If he does end up leaving the Devils I really hope he goes out west. As far as the Rangers are concerned I really hope they stay away from all of the defensemen that you mentioned. I would rather not give any of these guys a big contract with so many young players in the system ready to step in over the next year or two. Just say no to UFAs on the blueline Slats!
Some people seem to fail to realize that just because the guy has either the Isles or Rangers INTERESTED in nearly every UFA on the list doesn't mean that either of those teams is going to try to sign all of these guys. Casey says in several places that many of these or second or third options if other signings don't work out.
You Ranger fans are always looking for that "1 more superstar" to get you to the next level, yet $$ can never seem to fix your problems of being the #1 Colossal Waste of the NHL, year in - year out. At least the Yankees can hide behind their number of championships... you? Part of the Original 6 yet no more cups than the Isles in their 34 seasons. I love this "Drury is the perfect missing piece that the blueshirts need!!" lol puhleeease. Shanahan was that piece last year, Jagr a few years before that, Drury will be the flavor of 2007, or Scott Gomes, or even Selanne... who cares? Save your money so at least you have some pride when you lose the season series to the Isles next year...