Keyboard Quarterbacks

JASON BLAKE, 33, LW/RW, Islanders
2006-07 Stats: 40 G, 29 A, 69 Pts, 34 PIM, plus-1

Who might be interested: Islanders, Wild, Ducks, Flames, Kings, Canadiens, Flyers, Leafs, Canucks

Jason Blake shook his reputation as an overachieving grinder this year to become one of the NHL's premier goal scorers, finishing 10th in the league with 40 goals.

The 5-10, 180-pound Blake can create problems for opposing defenses with his work ethic and slick puckhandling. He has a reputation for being a bit of a puck hog; occasionally he bogs down the offense because he won't pass the puck.

Nonetheless, Blake will be a valuable addition to just about any offense. He gives a complete effort, or close to it, on just about every night. Although Ted Nolan all but removed him from the penalty kill this year, Blake can contribute there as well, and his speed makes him a shorthanded threat.

Blake has been the heart and soul of the Islanders' offense for the last six years, but it appears that relationship is coming to an end.

After scoring 40 goals for the first time in his career (he'd never even scored 30 in a season before), Blake is due for a big raise from the $1.55 million he made this season. Blake will probably draw a salary of about $5 million per season over the next three or four years.

Apparently, the Islanders don't see it that way. Before the Feb. 27 trade deadline, the Islanders are believed to have offered Blake a three-year deal worth only $3 million per season -- substantially below market value.

With Smyth now grabbing all the headlines, and Blake's role as the catalyst of the Islanders' offense in jeopardy, don't expect him to give the Isles a hometown discount.

The veteran forward will reportedly draw strong interest from his home state of Minnesota. Other than the Wild, a small pack of teams might bid for his services. Could one of them steal Blake with a large offer that knocks Minnesota or the Islanders out of the market?

It's unlikely that GM Garth Snow will walk through walls to outbid teams determined to give a long-term contract to a player who will be 34 in September.

Rangers? Blake has tormented the Blueshirts for many years, but the Rangers know Blake will be overvalued at $5 million. With a tight budget, the Rangers can't afford to overspend on anyone. (When was the last time you heard that?) We don't see them having much interest.

Prediction: Blake will sign with Minnesota, where he can blend in with a speedy offense and probably have a better chance of winning a Stanley Cup in the next two or three years. To make it happen, the Wild will probably need to buy out goaltender Manny Fernandez and trade defenseman Keith Carney.

RYAN SMYTH, 31, LW, Islanders
2006-07 Stats: 36 G, 32 A, 68 Pts, 52 PIM, plus-2

Who might be interested: Islanders, Oilers, Flames, Avalanche, Canadiens, Leafs

Smyth came to Long Island in the most surprising trade of the 2006-07 season, and Garth Snow has lots of reasons to keep him in blue and orange.

Not only did Snow trade two of his best prospects (Ryan O'Marra, Robert Nilsson) for Smyth, he and coach Ted Nolan boosted Smyth's stock by praising him as a winning player who could help transform the Islanders back into a winning franchise.

On top of that, the Islanders already stand to lose winger Jason Blake (40 goals). If Smyth left, too, subtract another 36 goals from their offense.

Smyth has been one a consistent goal-scoring threat throughout his career; his grit and prowess around the net make him a dangerous force unlike any other player the Islanders have. His reputation as a good influence on and off the ice preceded him, and according to Snow, he was everything the Islanders expected during the final 20-plus games of the season.

The Islanders' biggest advantage in negotiations is that they can remove him from the market by signing him before the July 1 deadline. No doubt owner Charles Wang and his staff would prefer to keep him out of a bidding war that is sure to involve a small but highly-motivated group of suitors, including Smyth's former team in Edmonton. One report already stated the Smyth rejected a large contract from Wang, but the Islanders deny such an offer was made.

Smyth rumors will fly all summer in Canada; North of the Border, he's beloved and know as "Captain Canada" -- no surprise given his many contributions to his country's national team. Edmonton, Calgary, Montreal and Toronto could all boost their profile by signing the Alberta native.

Colorado could unite him with Joe Sakic and Milan Hejduk to form a dangerous top line.

Ultimately, the decision will not come down to the Islanders will to sign him; it will instead depend on Smyth's desire to remain on Long Island. Does he have confidence in Snow and Wang to build a winner here? Will Smyth take the opportunity to return to Edmonton, where he is worshipped more than any Oiler in the post-dynasty era?

Stay tuned, because the speculation is just heating up now.

Rangers? Signing Smyth would be a long shot; only a possibility if Brendan Shanahan doesn't re-sign.

Prediction: The Islanders will convince Smyth to stay on as the centerpiece of their offense. They'll spurn Jason Blake, who is two years older and probably doesn't have another 40 goal season in his future. Smyth would be a much better investment at $5 or $5.5 million per season, and he would give the Islanders a new face to put on all their mailings to season ticket holders.

TOM POTI, 30, D, Islanders
2006-07 Stats: 6 G, 38 A, 44 Pts, 74 PIM, minus-1

Who might be interested: Islanders, Bruins, Flames, Blue Jackets, Canadiens

There's only a small group of teams who are likely to have serious interest in Poti when free agency begins in July, but off-season developments and trades will probably change that list as the summer goes on.

For now, the Islanders would seem to be the front-runner to re-sign him. Poti quielty put up some very impressive numbers in his first season on Long Island, registering 44 points to tie for 20th in the NHL among defensemen.

Poti still makes the occasional sloppy play on defense, or the occasional lazy pass on offense. He's not a prototypical power play quarterback, because he doesn't join the rush as well or as often as the top offensive d-men. But he'd be a valuable player for the Isles, especially if they can't sign a big ticket blueliner like Sheldon Souray, Kimmo Timonen or Brian Rafalski.

On the Islanders' power play, Poti never looked more comfortable than when he was dishing the puck to sharpshooter Marc-Andre Bergeron, who took a lot of the pressure off Poti to score from the blueline.

For those reasons, we expect him to be back. But things can change.

Rangers? One thing that won't change is the Madison Square Garden booing Poti every time he touches the puck. That tells you all you need to know about Poti's chances of signing with them.

Prediction: Unless the Islanders sign one of the top free-agent defensemen, Poti remains a very valuable player for them. He'll re-up for two years at $3.1 million, a slight increase from the $2.75 million he made last year.

If the Islanders do grab a top defenseman and decide to dump Poti, he'll be badly needed in Boston, Calgary, Columbus or possibly Montreal. Poti is a Massachusetts native and Calgary and Montreal could both lose top defensemen to free agency.

MICHAEL NYLANDER, 34, C, Rangers
2006-07 Stats: 26 G, 57 A, 83 Pts, 42 PIM, plus-12

Who might be interested: Rangers, Thrashers, Avalanche, Red Wings, Capitals

Here's a list of centers who scored more points than Michael Nylander this year: Crosby, Thornton, Lecavalier, Sakic, Savard, Briere, Jokinen, Spezza, Datsyuk, Malkin.

Not one slouch in the group.

This illustrated what a tremendous bargain Nylander was for the Rangers this year at $2.28 million. Nylander actually has an option on his contract, but the figure he'd be paid next year is so low it won't even merit consideration. He'll undoubtedly opt out and become a free agent.

Although almost everyone seems confident he'll re-sign with Jaromir Jagr and friends, there's always the chance another team with more money and motivation could convince him to sign elsewhere.

Nylander devastated Atlanta in the playoffs, and they're as desperate as any team in the league to add a playmaking center with a reputation for setting up big stars. The Thrashers have two of them -- Marian Hossa and Ilya Kovalchuk.

Washington needs a playmaker for Alexander Ovechkin, and Nylander has a history of playing well in Washington.

Detroit may lose second-line center Robert Lang, and could pair Nylander with fellow Swede Henrik Zetterberg.

The Avalanche are looking for a playmaker to put behind Joe Sakic on the depth chart. All these teams would have sufficient cash and motivation to seriously pursue Nylander after July 1.

Which is why the Rangers know they need to do everything they can to lock him up before them. Although Nylander is not without flaws -- occasional sloppy defense, taking nights off, lack of footspeed -- he has become increasingly valuable because of just how much his presence elevates the play of Jagr.

Despite reported threats by Nylander's agent to take his client on the open market, Nylander knows his best option is to return to the Rangers, too. And as much as the Red Wings could offer a greater guarantee of a long playoff run, Nylander has helped the Rangers develop into contenders, and might like the idea of seeing it through until the Jagr era comes to end in a year or two.

Islanders? The Islanders could use a playmaker if they re-sign Ryan Smyth, but will they find Nylander too pricey at our estimate of $4 million per season? Nylander is better suited to playing with European snipers, and his tendency to take games off would not sit well with coach Ted Nolan.

Prediction: The Rangers will get Nylander to sign on the line which is dotted before July 1, possibly for a slight discount of $3.6 million or 3.75 million per season. If not, they might have to outbid other teams on the open market, and risk inhibiting their ability to go after other top free agents.

BRENDAN SHANAHAN, 38, LW, Rangers
2006-07 Stats: 29 G, 33 A, 62 Pts, 47 PIM, plus-2

Who might be interested: Rangers, Wings, Canadiens, Leafs, Panthers, Devils, Flames, Canucks

At 38 years old, Shanahan proved he's still a premiere scorer, although his days as a premiere player are behind him. He's not the physical force he once was, and his poor foot speed has become problematic in the faster, post-cap NHL. Shanahan is also coming off a serious concussion sustained when collided with the Flyers' Mike Knuble in early February.

So despite credentials as a winner, a leader, and a great goal scorer, he probably won't get much more than $3.75 million this year (the Rangers paid him $4 million in 2006-07). The Rangers might also be able to get him for a hometown discount in the neighborhood of $3 million.

Shanahan seems determined to play on a team with a legitimate chance of winning the Stanley Cup, and he was embraced by New York fans who believe he helped carry them a step closer to that goal.

He meshed well with star Jaromir Jagr after the team's early troubles, and the two form a unique and rather complementary center of gravity in the Rangers' locker room.

Some have also whispered that Shanahan favors New York because it puts him closer to the NHL offices, where he may hope to begin his next career.

It makes sense to consider the Rangers the favorite to re-sign Shanny, but there will be plenty of other teams involved if he becomes a free agent.

Detroit might look to bring him back if they don't sign a bigger-name free agent this summer. Montreal was a leading bidder for Shanahan before the Rangers grabbed him last summer. The Leafs desperately need a goal-scoring winger, and Shanahan is an Ontario native (and the NHL has headquarters in Toronto, too). Florida might like the idea of Shahahan mentoring their relatively young group of forwards, although the 20-year veteran would probably doubt the Panthers' chances of contending for a cup this year.

The Devils, who drafted Shanahan in 1987, could bring him back if they get ravaged in free agency. Wouldn't that sting their cross-river rivals?

The Flames and Canucks will be in the market for a veteran scoring wing, but it isn't likely Shanahan will want to relocate his family 2,500+ miles to western Canada.

Islanders? The Isles probably consider Shanahan part of Plan C. They preference is to re-sign Ryan Smyth, but if they can't get him, or a number of other big-name free agents they're likely to pursue, they might then turn their attention to Shanahan. But he'd probably be off the market by then.

Prediction: The Rangers will convince Shanahan that one more year in a blueshirt could help him win his fourth Stanley Cup ring. Shanahan, a smart man who has made millions in his career, will give the Rangers the hometown discount they need to pursue other top free agents.

MIKE COMRIE, 26, C, Ottawa Senators
2006-07 Stats: 20 G, 25 A, 45 Pts, 44 PIM, even

Who might be interested: Islanders, Thrashers, Flames, Avalanche, Blue Jackets, Wings, Panthers, Coyotes, Leafs, Canucks, Capitals

At just 26 years old, Comrie is the youngest of this year's prized free agent pack. He's a speedy offensive threat with the talent to be a No. 1 center. But teams won't be knocking down his door with wads of cash in their hands the way you might expect if you only looked at this stats and his age.

Throughout his career, including at times during his half-season with Ottawa, Comrie has been criticized for lack of effort and poor defensive play. He's also had problems with coaches and a messy contract situation that ultimately led to him being traded out of Edmonton 3 1/2 years ago.

So let's figure that Comrie, based on a subpar 20-goal season and his history of troubles, will get a contract in the $3 million range for three years. The only reason he might get more than that is because so many teams could find him appealing. The Islanders will need a first line center with some speed if they re-sign Ryan Smyth or add another top free agent wing. Sorry, Alexei, you had your chance.

Atlanta, Calgary, Colorado, Detroit, Florida, Toronto, and Vancouver are all playoff-quality teams who need more offense at center. Comrie would provide that at a relatively low cost.

Columbus and Washington both need more speed and talent and have superstar wingers (Rick Nash and Alexander Ovechkin, respectively) who could improve with more help from a center.

Phoenix is probably the only one of Comrie's former employers who would be willing to have him back; he was dealt due to salary cap problems, not issues with his play or personality.

With the potential to score upwards of 35 goals, or to flame out and score fewer than 25, Comrie is one of those medium-risk signings who could help make a good team very good -- or, if he struggles, he could cost it a playoff berth.

Rangers? The Rangers appear to have their sights set on the top free agents such as Briere, Drury and Gomez, but they might consider Comrie as a fallback option. Because he will cost significantly less than the premium forwards, the Rangers might not have a choice but to consider him.

Prediction: With so many teams interested, the bidding figures to last well into the first month of the free agent season. Unless someone blows Comrie away with a big offer right away, he'll probably land at whichever team still has a need for him after the big names are off the board.

Predicting where Comrie is going to end up is a little like throwing a dart at a map of North America, but we'll say that Florida brings him on board to help fill out their young, talented group of forwards.

CURTIS JOSEPH, 40, G, Phoenix Coyotes
2006-07 Stats: 18-31-2, 3.19 GAA, .893 save percentage

Who might be interested: Coyotes, Blue Jackets

CuJo was once an elite goaltender in the NHL, but he's reached his twilight now, and only a couple of teams with little shot of making the playoffs next year are likely to be interested in him.

He made $2 million with Phoenix last year. Would he accept significantly less to be a backup somewhere else? And what team would risk signing a backup goaltender in his forties?

It's a short list, but if we assume that Joseph is only looking for starting jobs, there are very few available. Phoenix might have him back if they can't sign a free agent like J.S. Giguere or Niklas Backstrom.

Columbus has two young goaltenders who might be in need of Joseph's veteran support. It's not hard to envision a platoon system in which Joseph split time with either Fredrik Norrena or Pascal Leclaire while the other player worked in the AHL.

There are plenty of teams in need of backup, including the Rangers. But many of those teams are just as likely to fill those roles with younger or cheaper players.

Islanders? They're set in net with Rick DiPietro as the starter and Wade Dubielewicz as the newly-annointed backup.

Prediction: If he doesn't re-sign with Phoenix, Joseph will call it a career.

MARK RECCHI, 39, RW, Pittsburgh Penguins
2006-07 Stats: 24 G, 44 A, 68 Pts, 62 PIM, plus-1

Who might be interested: Ducks, Wild, Canadiens, Devils, Penguins, Blues, Lightning, Leafs

Even at 39, Recchi proved he could still be a solid contributor to a playoff team. The veteran winger was a perfect complement for Pittsburgh's young trio of Malkin, Crosby and Staal and the Penguins will undoubtedly try to bring him back. They might even be able to sign him for slightly less than the $2.28 million he made this year.

Recchi should attract interest from other clubs for a variety of reasons. The Ducks, particularly if they come up short in the Stanley Cup finals, might like the idea of adding some experience up front.

Minnesota, likewise, could use more grit and depth. New Jersey is becoming an increasingly young and small team at forward, so adding a veteran like Recchi could provide a scoring boost and add a stabilizing force in the locker room.

Montreal fans loved Recchi during his four-plus years there, and the Canadiens have some holes at forward. St. Louis seems to like the idea of adding veterans at forward while developing their young defense, although they might be getting ready for a shift in strategy.

The Lightning are in need of an energy boost, and the gritty Recchi could help solve some of their toughness problems up front. Toronto could also stand to add a good winger at a relatively inexpensive price.

With so many teams figuring to jump into the bidding, the Penguins will try to do the smart thing and lock up Recchi before July 1. Reports out of Pittsburgh already have them talking to Recchi's agent.

Islanders? Recchi would mesh well with the Islanders' gritty style and would add 20+ goals to the lineup. But the Islanders could use more speed up front, so Recchi would fall under the category of a backup option.

Rangers? Brendan Shanahan, if re-signed, adequately fills the role of grizzled veteran winger in the Rangers' locker room. We doubt they'll show much interest in Recchi.

Prediction: Pittsburgh will re-sign him either before or shortly after the July 1 deadline. Recchi and the Penguins are a great fit for each other.

GARY ROBERTS, 41, LW, Pittsburgh Penguins
2006-07 Stats: 20 G, 22 A, 42 Pts, 97 PIM, even

Who might be interested: Penguins, Ducks, Flames, Hurricanes, Leafs, Lightning, Capitals

Roberts is one of growing number of NHL forwards who has proven he can still play, despite being in his forties. He scored 20 goals last season split between Pittsburgh and Florida, and comes with a snarl that is often lost in the post lockout, no-fighting-or-hitting-allowed NHL.

Like Marc Recchi, the Penguins would like to retain this veteran forward for their very young team. Roberts' experience could greatly aid the development of prodigies such as Sidney Crosby and Jordan Staal.

The Penguins may be on the verge of a breakthrough season that would make them one of the league's top teams, and having a player like Roberts, who has seen it all, could help them cope with that success.

A few other teams in different situations might find Roberts appealing. The Ducks might want to add another veteran at forward, especially someone who can take punishment in front of the net and harrass opposing defensemen along the boards.

The Flames could look to bring him back to the city where he became a star in the late 80s and early 90. Roberts also had an effective three-year stint with Carolina after coming out of temporary retirement following a serious neck injury in 1997. The Hurricanes are aging at forward, though, and mind find Roberts doesn't fit into their plans.

Toronto was another successful stop for Roberts after Carolina, and Leafs fans would probably be happy to have him back.

Tampa Bay is far too soft and prissy up front; Roberts would be a smart signing to add intimidation and garbage-goal scoring to their group of skilled, finesse forwards.

The Capitals might think about bringing him on board to anchor and instruct their young players, including Alexander Ovechkin, Alexander Semin and top prospect Nicklas Backstrom.

Islanders? Think of Roberts as a more talented, higher-scoring version of Arron Asham. The Islanders might lose Asham to free agency, but they can probably replace him with someone from the farm team. There are better ways for the Islanders to spend money than on a 41-year-old forward who will probably want $2 million to play this year.

Rangers? There's no role for Roberts on the Rangers, who have ample veteran support for their young players.

Prediction: The Penguins seemed to like what they saw from Roberts at the end of the 2006-07 season. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that skating alongside talented players like Evgeni Malkin or Crosby, Roebrts will still get plenty of scoring chances. He'll re-sign with Pittsburgh.

SCOTT HANNAN, 28, D, San Jose Sharks
2006-07 Stats: 4 G, 20 A, 24 Pts, 38 PIM, plus-1

Who might be interested: Islanders, Sharks, Ducks, Bruins, Avalanche, Kings, Canadiens, Devils, Penguins, Lightning

Hannan is an impressive stay-at-home defender with good size and the ability to play enough minutes to anchor a top defensive pair.

He led San Jose in ice time with nearly 23 minutes per game, and also led the team in shorthanded ice time. He's probably worth a small raise over the $2.2 million he made this year, but he's reportedly asking for something similar to the $3.5 million per season Chris Phillips got from Ottawa. Good luck with that one, Scottie.

Phillips is a premier defensive defenseman, while Hannan still has some flaws in his game. He doesn't move the puck as well as Phillips and doesn't play as consistently tough and physical.

The Sharks won't be anxious to give him such a large contract when they are already pondering some changes after a playoff failure this spring. But Hannan only 28, which means the market should have plenty of interested parties this summer if San Jose doesn't re-sign him.

One of those parties might be the Islanders. It doesn't appear that Sean Hill will return (has anyone heard from him since his steroids bust -- perhaps he's slipping disgracefully into retirement?), so the Islanders might need a player who can step in and replace the toughness and physical play Hill brought last season.

Hannan's presence would allow Marc-Andre Bergeron, Chris Campoli, and possibly Radek Martinek and Bruno Gervais to play a larger role in the offense.

The Devils might be in the market if they lose Brad Lukowich and Brian Rafalski, but could be reluctant to pay Hannan more than Colin White, a similar player with far less impressive offensive stats, who is making $3 million per year until 2012.

The Ducks stand to lose four of their top seven defensemen, and Hannan could round out a very impressive top four on the blueline with Chris Pronger, Scott Niedermayer and Francois Beauchemin.

Montreal will be in the market for defensemen one or way or another, and depending on their progress in re-signing Andrei Markov and Sheldon Souray, might heavily pursue free agents from other teams.

Colorado and Tampa Bay could also find Hannan a useful replacement for UFA losses -- Ken Klee and Ossi Vaananen could be out in Colorado, while Cory Sarich and Nolan Pratt might be done in Tampa.

Boston still needs to build up its defense around Zdeno Chara, who proved he can't carry the load by himself this year. Los Angeles has plenty of finesse players on defense, but lack toughness and sound defensive play. Hannan's relative youth is appealing to the rebuilding Kings.

Pittsburgh has talent on the blueline, but could use one more defensive defenseman, especially with Josef Melichar, Rob Scuderi and Eric Cairns all set to hit open market.

Rangers? The Rangers appear loaded with stay-at-homers on the blueline, with Fedor Tyutin, Marek Malik and Daniel Girardi all providing little offense. Hannan doesn't seem like a player who would appeal to the Rangers, who probably want to leave room for prospect Marc Staal to make the team.

Prediction: With so many suitors, it's a toss-up. We'll go out on a limb here and say San Jose and Hannan hammer out an agreement that keeps him in Silicon Valley.

What does that mean for Craig Rivet and Bill Guerin, the Sharks' other top UFAs? Find out next week when we conclude our free agency preview with Part IV.

We'll cover Rivet, Guerin, Mats Sundin, Nik Antropov, and Michael Peca, plus a few other guys we might have missed in the first pass. Look for a post sometime late next week.

See you then.