Don't look now, but the Rangers are the hottest team in hockey. After sweeping Atlanta convincingly in the first round of the playoffs, they now await their second round opponent, which may not be determined for as many as five more days.
The Rangers have won 12 of their last 15 games and have lost only six of 34 games in regulation since Feb. 5.
The key questions for the Blueshirts going forward are: how do they avoid overconfidence after dominating Atlanta in what figured to be a more competitive opening-round series; how will a six- or seven-day layoff affect their momentum?; and who will they play in the next round?
Let's address those questions in order.
It's a huge cliche in sports, but the Rangers appear to be a team on a mission right now. After being left for dead (by yours truly and many others) in early February, the Blueshirts came together to author a dramatic playoff run that saw them jump from 11th to 6th place in the Eastern Conference in a span of six weeks.
The Rangers seemed to lack something earlier this season as they fumbled to recapture the magic of last year's team. That was a sense of team chemistry and unity -- a feeling that defined last season's surprise team -- but took time to develop this year. The Rangers have that now, perhaps even more strongly than they did last year.
Last year's team was expected to do very little, and rallied around those dire forecasts to plow their way through the first 60 games of the year. But they faced little adversity until the final weeks of the season, and by then it was too late for them to rebound.
This year's team faced adversity from the beginning of the year right up through the end of January, when they began their playoff run, including inconsistent goaltending and defense, underachieving newcomers and injuries to Brendan Shanahan, Fedor Tyutin, Marcel Hossa, and Karel Rachunek. They blew more than a half-dozen two- and three-goal leads and learned the hard way how to play winning hockey.
They understand how fragile success can be, and for that reason, it seems unreasonable that they will become overconfident.
That said, fresh off a sweep in which they often played their best -- but not always -- there is the potential for some laziness to creep in. That's where the coaching staff and the team's veterans (Shanahan, Jaromir Jagr and Michael Nylander) have to step in. So far they've done a good job keeping the team focused on one game at a time. The Rangers have lots of young players, and a good deal of veterans who have not experienced much playoff success. If they can't keep their focus over the next four or five days, they could be susceptible to an early blow in the next series which could leave them stunned and unable to recover.
That brings us to our next question: How will the Rangers be affected by the long layoff?
First, let's examine the positive aspects. Everyone likes to rest. At this time of the year, everyone needs a rest. No one needs it more than Henrik Lundqvist, who has started the Rangers' last 21 games in a row and 27 of their last 28.
As well as Lundqvist has played, his defense deserves equal praise. The Rangers' relatively young blueline corps, manned by Daniel Girardi (22), Fedor Tyutin (23), Thomas Pock (25), Paul Mara (27), Michal Rozsival (28), and old man Marek Malik (31) took their lumps in the Atlanta series. Prior to this season, their four youngest players (Girardi, Tyutin, Mara and Pock) had a combined nine games of NHL playoff experience, so the time off may give them a chance not only to rest, but to reflect and refocus as they prepare to face their second-round opponent.
Blair Betts, an underrated role player, has been nursing some "bumps and bruises" and will now have a chance to heal. Defenseman Karel Rachunek, who hasn't played since spraining his right knee on March 13, has a few more days to practice and get his timing back. Whether he'll return to the lineup is anyone's guess. Pock rebounded from two shaky games earlier in the Thrashers series to finish with two strong games on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Now let's look at some of the negatives of the long layoff. Most significantly, the Rangers are in real danger of losing the momentum they've built up over the past two months. It's easy to get stale and bored when you're doing nothing but practicing for four or five days, and we've seen in the past that that can offset the positive impact of rest and recovery.
The Rangers are off today (Thursday), but will be back on the ice on Friday. Coach Tom Renney should give his team at least more day off (Sunday, perhaps?), if possible, to strike a balance between the boredom of practice and the lethargy of sitting at home.
Realistically, though, the Rangers have no excuses. In the next round, they will face an opponent who has endured a longer, more physically exhausting series. Let's talk about those potential matchups.
First, we'll assume that the Islanders, who have been snakebitten and hung out to dry on a couple of occasions in their series against Buffalo, will not come back to beat the Sabres.
That means that the Rangers face three possible opponents: Ottawa, Pittsburgh, and the Sabres.
The Sabres were the class of the NHL during the regular season, but the Islanders have exposed some weaknesses. Buffalo seems to have a problem with playing down to the level of their competition, and the Islanders have made it clear that the Sabres defense does not cope well with pressure in its own end.
By contrast, the Rangers' defense has coped well with opposing forechecks, moving the puck efficiently out of its own end and eliminating many of the scrambly defensive sequences that marked their early-season struggles.
But keep in mind Buffalo's forwards present wave after wave of speedy, skilled, hard-forechecking wingers, which the Rangers' young defense will undoubtedly struggle to contain.
Ryan Miller is a solid, if unspectacular goaltender, who has something to prove after allowing some soft goals in the Islanders series thus far. The Sabres have star power in Daniel Briere and Chris Drury, who will keep the Rangers' coaching staff up late trying to design tactics to deter them.
It's not a favorable matchup for the Rangers for several reasons, and New York did not win a single game of four in the season series. Buffalo would be an unquestionable favorite, although I wouldn't expect the Rangers to roll over and die. If the Sabres are at their best, the Rangers will have a hard time winning this series. If the Rangers get the same Buffalo team that has waded through the Islanders series, they can win.
If Tampa Bay, now tied 2-2 in their series with New Jersey, manages to beat the Devils, the Rangers will face the winner of the 4-5 matchup of Ottawa and Pittsburgh. Both teams have high-powered, skilled offenses, and while Pittsburgh has some flaws, Ottawa is clearly the more dangerous of the two.
The Senators have gotten steady goaltending from Ray Emery during the past couple of months. This is significant because goaltending play has been the Senators' Achilles heel for the past few seasons. Ottawa thought they had that problem solved when they signed Dominik Hasek last season, but his injury in the Olympics derailed the Senators' Stanley Cup aspirations.
Ottawa's defense is anchored by world-class blueliners Wade Redden and Chris Phillips, with a good supporting cast in steady, puck-moving defensemen Anton Volchenkov and Christoph Schubert. They also get an offensive boost from the backline from Andrej Mezsaros and Joe Corvo.
Offensively, Ottawa is perhaps even more dangerous now than they were at any point last season. Daniel Alfredsson, Dany Heatley and Jason Spezza are premiere forwards, but Mike Comrie, Mike Fisher, Chris Kelly and Peter Schaefer and even enforcer Chris Neil can contribute.
Neil is a big part of a Senators team that has long since shed its reputation for priss come playoff time. He is a physical force matched by few in the league, and the Rangers will have to figure out a way to keep him away from Jaromir Jagr and their other small forwards.
Ottawa has the complete package in terms of experience and talent. Their defense and goaltending are not iron-clad, but if the Rangers can't keep the puck away from the Senators' forwards, it could be a long, very competitive series.
Pittsburgh has the marketing gurus at the NHL rooting for them; it's all because of Sidney Crosby, of course. The league would love the Pens to make a long run in the playoffs, giving Crosby the exposure they feel he needs to help him become the game's next Gretzky. But the Pens are very inexperienced and vulnerable for several reasons.
Although Pittsburgh has the game's most talented offensive player in Crosby, 19, and two wonderful young companions in Jordan Staal, 18, and Evgeni Malkin, 20, they lack the depth that the Rangers, Sabres, Sens, and other playoff teams have.
Pittsburgh's third and fourth lines are comprised of castoffs and minor-leaguers playing a bit out of their depth. Better teams should be able to exploit those lines to gain the upper hand. The Rangers went 3-3-2 against the Pens, and could have won the season series if not for forfeiting a two-goal lead in the third period of a March 10 meeting.
The scariest thing about the Penguins is their star power. Crosby can break open a game like no one else in the NHL -- not even Jagr. He's a super-talented playmaker who scores most of his goals on one-on-one plays, tip-ins and bad-angle shots.
The Rangers don't have a defenseman who matches up well with him, although Rachunek, not recognized as a great defensive defenseman, did seem to handle him well one-on-one during the regular season.
In addition to Crosby, Pittsburgh has a great veteran presence in Mark Recchi, who helped the Hurricanes win a Stanley Cup last season. 39-year-old power forward Gary Roberts has been lighting the lamp, and provides much-needed grit and experience to a Pens team which is lacking both.
The Penguins' defense has some decent puckmovers, captained by the talented and offensively potent Sergei Gonchar. Neutralizing his impact on the point would be a key for the Rangers in a series against Pittsburgh. Ryan Whitney is a promising young rearguard and Brooks Orpik brings a physical presence. But the Pens' defense is inferior to any potential first-round opponent.
Other weaknesses? Well, the Pens simply haven't done this before. History has proven that even the greatest teams -- and make no mistake, the Penguins could be one -- need to take their lumps before achieving said greatness.
Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier's Edmonton Oilers suffered a surprising first-round loss to Los Angeles in the 1982 playoffs and a heartbreaking loss to the Islanders in the 1983 Stanley Cup finals before beginning their run of four titles in five years.
This year will provide a terrific learning experience for the Pens' young players, but they're not ready to become winner just yet.
By contrast, the Rangers boast several players who have come up big in playoff series before -- most notably Shanahan and Jagr. Nylander has been an impact player so far in the postseason and the Rangers' young defense has played with poise.
The great equalizer, of course, is goaltending. Henrik Lundqvist should be able to outplay Marc-Andre Fleury, who like 14(!!!!) others on the Penguins' roster is playing in his first postseason series.
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