I've always been amused when the college basketball experts start telling us who the No. 1 seeds will be in late January.
They continue right through February and then every other hour in March. As if this is going to make such a huge difference in our brackets or in the actual outcome of the tournament. Or will it?
At the end of one of ESPN's Bracketology shows this past Sunday night, Digger Phelps snuck in this little nugget right before they cut to a commercial: Only six of the past 20 No. 1 seeds have actually made it to the Final Four.
So much for picking the chalk, huh?
As I filled out three different brackets on Tuesday night, I noticed I had three No. 1 seeds reaching the Final Four on each bracket. Of course, I've never been right before, so I don't anticipate that changing anytime soon.
But I decided to explore Phelps' nugget of information further. Turns out his stat was correct. But there's more than one way to look at the numbers.
The NCAA switched to a 64-team format in 1985 (perhaps the greatest marketing strategy for a sport ever, by the way). In the 22 tournaments since (2007 not included), 60 of a possible 88 No. 1 seeds reached the Elite Eight.
Take the chalk!
Of those 60 teams, 36 advanced to the Final Four. As a group, No. 1 seeds are 36-24 in Elite Eight games, a .600 winning percentage.
Of those 36 Final Four appearances, No. 1 seeds reached the national championship game 19 times. Of those 19 appearances, 12 resulted in a national championship.
So, if you're wondering who will the tournament this year, there's a 54.5 percent chance it will be a No. 1 seed.
Here are a few more No. 1 seed stats to help/confuse you while filling out your brackets:
* 2006 is the first year a No. 1 seed did not reach the Final Four.
* Four No. 1 seeds have never all reached the Final Four.
* Three No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four three times: 1993, 1997, 1999.
* No. 1 seed vs. No. 1 seed in the national championship game has happened three times: 1993, 1999, 2005.
(UNC won two of those titles, 1993 and 2005.)
* At least two No. 1 seeds have reached the Elite Eight every year except for 2000. (No. 1 Michigan State won it all that year.)
* All four No. 1 seeds have reached the Elite Eight in the same year four times: 1987, 1993, 2001, 2003.
Beat the Keyboard Quarterbacks and others in Newsday's Hoops Hysteria.
Read Adam Abramson's bracket breakdown in his Campus Confidential blog