by Mark Silva
Remember that Newsweek magazine poll a few weeks back that portrayed a big advantage for Barack Obama in his contest with John McCain for the White House?
Forget it.
The newest Newsweek poll shows pretty much what the daily tracking poll of the Gallup organization has been recording for some time now: A virtual tie between the Democratic and Republican candidates for president among voters surveyed nationally. Newsweek says the virtual tie portrayed in its latest poll, as compared with the 15-point lead that Obama enjoyed in a poll reported on June 20, is "hard to explain.''
A lot of people probably have their own explanations.
Now, one of the Swamp's most faithful readers and persistent critics wondered in these e-pages if the Swamp, which reported a big double-digit lead for Obama in the Newsweek poll past, would be reporting the narrowing of the race in the newest Newsweek poll, and the answer is, of course we would. And we are. (Though we are not quite sure what to make of this business about Obama's "glow," which Newsweek illustrates with the AP photo shown here.)
The Swamp also asked, way back in the moment when Hillary Clinton had stepped aside from the Democratic contest and suddenly Obama showed a big lead over his Republican rival, if that was perhaps an outlier among the various polls.
Maybe it was, maybe not. Whatever, this is the latest:
"A month after emerging victorious from the bruising Democratic nominating contest, some of Barack Obama's glow may be fading,'' Newsweek reports. "In the latest Newsweek Poll, the Illinois senator leads Republican nominee John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44 percent to 41 percent.
"The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month's Newsweek Poll, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51 percent to 36 percent.
"Obama's rapid drop comes at a strategically challenging moment for the Democratic candidate,'' Newsweek notes. "Having vanquished Hillary Clinton in early June, Obama quickly went about repositioning himself for a general-election audience--an unpleasant task for any nominee emerging from the pander-heavy primary contests and particularly for a candidate who'd slogged through a vigorous primary challenge in most every contest from January until June...
"More seriously, some Obama supporters worry that the spectacle of their candidate eagerly embracing his old rival, Hillary Clinton, and traveling the country courting big donors at lavish fund-raisers, may have done lasting damage to his image as an arbiter of a new kind of politics.
"This is a major concern since Obama's outsider credentials, have, in the past, played a large part in his appeal to moderate, swing voters. In the new poll, McCain leads Obama among independents 41 percent to 34 percent, with 25 percent favoring neither candidate. In June's Newsweek Poll, Obama bested McCain among independent voters, 48 percent to 36 percent.''
For more, see Newsweek's report on the Obama-McCain contest:
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Comments
The explanation? Newsweek previously used a flawed sample. Intentional? Wouldn't be the first time.
Newsweek, which is plummeting like an Iranian rocket, is finding out that Push Polling doesn't work in today's era of widespread communications. People spot "phony" the instant it's put out, even if, in Newsweek's case, it's four days after the fact.
Posted by: Secrist | July 12, 2008 7:27 AM
Proof- Ameirica dosen't need a FLIP FLOP President
Posted by: George | July 12, 2008 7:28 AM
No surprise about this poll at all. At the end of the day an empty suit is just an empty suit.
Oh, and the glow is just the usual halo.
http://obamamessiah.blogspot.com/
Posted by: MJ | July 12, 2008 7:51 AM
OK Mark! You did write about the swing! Thanks and maybe you are more fair than I thought. This swing away from Obama was bound to happen when the "Change" mantra grew stale! He has yet to come up with meat for the potatos. Obama even looks worse after he flipped on the funds issue and is now "High Browing"! I look for a further skid!
Posted by: henry | July 12, 2008 8:42 AM
So all the polls showed a virtual dead heat last month, and Newsweek showed a big Obama lead. Now this month, all the polls show Obama starting to distance himself from McSame in the polls, and Newsweek shows a dead heat.
Sounds like "the glow is fading" on Newsweek.
Posted by: Ed | July 12, 2008 9:08 AM
meanwhile, directly to the right of the above story is the rcp poll recap that shows obama still has a comfortable 4.8% lead.
he is also leading in 5 of the 7 battleground states.
Posted by: crud | July 12, 2008 9:33 AM
Oh and don't be too smug, Mark. You burried this on an early morning Saturday post while most of friday was devoted to the burning issue of Obama's entry in NASCAR.
Posted by: MJ | July 12, 2008 9:36 AM
See, Mark, it wasn't that difficult writing an article pointing out Obama's drop in the polls--Though it was probably against Obama and Swamp policy to do so. Your media friends will still talk to you, and you can still hope for that job in the Obama administration.
But the glow the media has surrounded their candidate is fading, as his flip-flops become too obvious for even the media to ignore.
Posted by: Bruce | July 12, 2008 9:44 AM
Obama could lose.
The only thing stronger than the enthusiasm in the Church of St. Barack is:
the itense hate from the Right.
They'll stop at nothing--NOTHING--to prevent his election.
Posted by: ornery | July 12, 2008 10:01 AM
The Real Issue is not about polls. It's about people and what they are going through...i.e. foreclosures, health plans that are not covering basic health needs, bankruptcies, the Iraq War, the dollars going overseas and not circulating here in the U.S. etc. Why would anyone vote for someone with a 95% track record of voting for policies that reflect the present state of affairs????
Posted by: The Real Issue | July 12, 2008 10:45 AM
Ditto on the chiding about burying this on Saturday morning.
I find many reasons for the fade: Obama's shameless abandonment of past positions, his lame explanations for same, his pandering to any and all comers, his shameless abandonment (that's so egregious I had to say it twice) and his complete lack of experience. Now that he's the nominee, people are actually paying attention. The media did a horrible job of pointing out flaws in the Chosen One during the primary, which led to his run of primary wins. THe fact that he finished the primary season badly showed a great deal of weakness which the DNC and supers conveniently ignored. Of course his poll numbers are dropping. He is a horrible candidate.
And all these people who expect HRC supporters to come to the fold and chide them to "get over it" also ignore an important fact. HRC and BHO are NOT equal candidates. She is experienced, he is not. At least with HRC you knew what you were getting. Obama changes so much that the candidate -- hope and change! -- of yesterday is not the candidate of today. and the fear is -- what will he be tomorrow?
Posted by: beth | July 12, 2008 10:50 AM
Maybe it is because the "SEAL" showed people how foolish he is. or as we have said the more people see and hear Obama. They realize he is not ready for "PRIME TIME"
Hillary Soprano should be in the pull pen warming up. By the convention McCain will be in the lead and the Democ'RATS" will dump him for Hillary Soprano
VJ Machiavelli
http://www.vjmachiavelli.blogspot.com
Posted by: VJ Machiavelli | July 12, 2008 1:15 PM
I agree with you VJ and I am not an HRC fan! I would liked to have had MR but not to be, (maybe as VP)!
Posted by: henry | July 12, 2008 1:58 PM
The latest Gallup poll (July 11) has Obama with a 6 point lead that's growing.
I expect Obama's lead to grow even more the next time there's a round of polling because of the weeks worth of gaffes McCain just had (Phil Gramm, the economy etc)
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108772/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Holds-6Point-Lead-Over-McCain.aspx
Posted by: JoshuaLee | July 12, 2008 2:04 PM
The earlier Silva Newsweek Poll article, with Obama doing well, ran in the front section of the Trib. We'll wait and see if Mark Silva writes a column on this Newsweek Poll, with Obama not doing well, and it appears in the front section of tomorrow's Trib.
Posted by: bruce | July 12, 2008 3:32 PM
Non-stories all
The combined result of many polls is more accurate than any one.
The combined said tied when Newsweek said Obama was ahead
The combined said Obama ahead when Newsweek said tied.
And June polls tell little about november results...
Yeah Illinois is ahead by four in the second quarter...
Posted by: Keith | July 12, 2008 4:04 PM
I had already decided to cancel my Newsweek subscription forever. For months, its one-sided "reporting" has been sickening. Despite sticking a George Will column at the back of every other issue, Newsweek is as liberal as the New York Times.
Posted by: Chris | July 12, 2008 4:27 PM
I love it when the already demoralized Republican Party starts thumping their chests over a stupid poll only to have the rug pulled out from under them all over again.
Just as Obama ahead by 15% was an outlier so is this poll.
Obama is ahead 5-8%. But as we all know, it isn't the head to head general election matchup that is important but the state to state polls and Obama is doing well there.
Just read an article that the Dem registration in Florida went way up from Jan-May by over 100,000 votes compared to the GOP voter registration.
The bottom line is the Dems are enthused and the GOP is not. If Obama just splits the Indies than he will win this election.
Posted by: Poll me once, shame on you, poll me twice, shame on me | July 12, 2008 6:21 PM
Regardless of the polls at present the DNC and superdelegates have to know by now they have made a grave error in nominating Obama..He did not have enough experience at the onset to be President and every negative situation we face as a Nation has seemed to worsen at an alarming rate since..Now more than ever we need a Leader..Not a Learner...His mantras may sound good but mantras won't save lives....including ours or our TROOPS.....I cannot understand how he is referred to as our first black President{ should he get elected } even tho he is half white...This is not meant to be a racist remark in any way...Just an observation..He has the black vote sewn up yet he says he is half white..???..His VP choice might help ....Debatable however....BRING OUR SOLDIERS HOME ALIVE NOW..............
Posted by: kaye c. | July 12, 2008 6:45 PM
As I predicted yesterday, nothing in today's Tribune on this poll--not even a mention. Whereas the Tribune highlighted the earlier (Obama doing well) Newsweek Poll as a large front section story.
Did anyone expect different from the Obeyme 24/7 Infomercial that is the Tribune?
Posted by: Bruce | July 13, 2008 10:59 AM