by Frank James
Franklin and Marshall professors Terry Madonna and Michael Young have a new Politically Uncorrected" column in which they assert that the endorsement by Sen. Bob Casey of his fellow junior senator, Barack Obama, may spell doom for the presidential hopes of Sen. Hillary Clinton.
Cutting to the chase, their premise is that Casey is popular with a lot of blue-collar voters in the state and while his endorsement of the senator from Illinois may not lead to Obama winning Pennsylvania, it could cut significantly into Clinton's lead, giving her a less-than-huge win and causing enough super delegates to declare for Obama.
Here's their piece's money quote:
The take away point here is that the Casey endorsement may be a game-ender, a final speed bump for Clinton that blocks any remaining viable path to the nomination. She needs to win Pennsylvania big, and Casey’s presence in the race makes it hard for her to do that. Clinton probably still wins the state—but not by enough to allow her to continue the race past Pennsylvania.
Read on for the entire piece.
Politically Uncorrected
By G. Terry Madonna & Michael L. Young
THE CASEY FLY IN THE CLINTON OINTMENT
Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey has finally entered the high stakes game of presidential endorsements after months of studied neutrality. And he did it with some uncharacteristic pizzazz. The endorsement, much coveted by Obama and much covered by the state press, was delivered last week in Pittsburgh. Since then it has been analyzed closely for why Casey did it. Perhaps too closely!
Indeed much attention has been paid to why Casey endorsed, but little attention to what it means for the race.
Not that the whys are uninteresting. Indeed the political calculations in Casey’s endorsement of Obama do not seem favorable to Casey. He has risked much with his endorsement in a contest that has become increasingly bitter and divisive. It positions the junior senator against virtually the entire Democratic political establishment in the state—while it pits him even in his home town of Scranton against Clinton, the “home town girl.”
Many in Pennsylvania are chalking up the Casey endorsement made against the prevailing political winds as just another example of the famed Casey reputation for stubborn independence and political iconoclasm. Both he and his father, a popular state governor from 1987-1995, have been disposed to dance to their own political music. The elder Casey sought the governorship four times before finally succeeding. And his celebrated fight with the Clinton campaign over his request to address abortion at the 1992 New York Democratic convention led to a snub of the governor and the Pennsylvania delegation that still lingers.
Those who best know Senator Casey think that he endorsed Obama simply because he thought it was the right thing to do. But whether Pennsylvania’s junior senator has qualified himself for inclusion in the next edition of Profiles in Courage or whether he has simply made a shrewd political calculation is not the immediate question.
Much more to the point of the nation’s ongoing struggle for the Democratic nomination is the question of what if anything the Casey endorsement will mean in that contest. This is the “So What Question.”
First what it doesn’t mean. It doesn’t mean that Obama will now win Pennsylvania. In reality he still remains a long shot to actually beat Clinton in the popular vote. And it doesn’t mean, as did Governor Ed Rendell’s earlier endorsement of Clinton, that impressive organizational support or vast new sources of political money are now available to Obama. Casey has little organization and even less fundraising capacity to offer with his endorsement.
But what Casey’s endorsement might mean trumps mere political resources like organization and money. It might mean the ballgame—the quickened end of the Democratic primary battle and the ultimate nomination of Barack Obama.
Just how the endorsement of a junior U.S. senator without money or organization can mean so much is due to the unique circumstances now prevailing in the Democratic Party. Hillary Clinton, behind in both delegates and popular votes, is still alive at this late point for two reasons: one of them a compelling fact and the other a plausible premise.
The compelling fact is that she won critical victories in electorally crucial Ohio and Texas in March. These wins moved her then faltering campaign off life support. The plausible premise is that she will win Pennsylvania in April and win it big. And with the Pennsylvania victory, sail through the remainder of the state primaries closing in on Obama’s delegate vote lead and perhaps surpassing him in popular vote, ultimately pushing the super delegates her way at the convention
For this scenario to play out, Clinton needs a victory in Pennsylvania. And not just any victory will do. She needs to win impressively and overwhelmingly. She needs margins large enough to buttress her argument that only she can win critical Electoral College states like Pennsylvania and margins large enough to allow her to harvest a significant proportion of pledged delegates to make some gains on Obama in that critical category.
At the end of the day, Clinton must win Pennsylvania big—Obama, on the other hand, must only avoid losing big.
Enter the Casey endorsement: the proverbial fly in Clinton’s political ointment. Before Casey, the Clinton scenario was entering final rehearsals. She had corralled virtually every major politico in the state, was leading by double digits, and was apparently on her way to an impressive win. The Casey endorsement changes all that in both subtle and not so subtle ways.
In particular it threatens to undercut Clinton’s support with some key constituencies, especially blue collar, working class, white voters, many of them Catholic, who so far have been hot for Hillary but only lukewarm for Obama. Casey, who won his Senate seat with almost 60 percent of the vote, is popular with these groups and might persuade many of them to take a second look at Obama.
Casey’s endorsement will also offer Obama some much needed momentum during the final three week push in Pennsylvania. Rather than stall the Clinton campaign, it’s more likely to energize the Obama campaign, and what Obama critically needs in Pennsylvania during the final push is a lift. Casey, who will personally travel to many campaign stops with Obama and help him navigate through the often Byzantine world of state politics, will give him that momentum.
Finally the Casey endorsement may also help Obama corral more super delegates. Not widely reported has been the considerable deficit in Pennsylvania super delegates for Obama. Of the state’s 29 supers, Casey becomes only the fourth to side with Obama. His endorsement now offers the yet undeclared super delegates cover and an excuse to endorse Obama.
The take away point here is that the Casey endorsement may be a game-ender, a final speed bump for Clinton that blocks any remaining viable path to the nomination. She needs to win Pennsylvania big, and Casey’s presence in the race makes it hard for her to do that. Clinton probably still wins the state—but not by enough to allow her to continue the race past Pennsylvania.
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Comments
Let get the facts straight; the reason why Casey's father was not allowed to address the convention was not because he wanted to spdeak about abortion but rather because he refused to endorse the Democratic nominee.
Posted by: notjmariotti | March 31, 2008 1:02 PM
Clinton has to stay in this race, she has to continue getting campaign donations from her supporters in order to pay off all of the self-made Clinton campaign debts. Clinton should have canned her incompetent campaign manager, Mark Penn, a looooooong time ago.
"Cash-strapped Clinton fails to pay bills"
By: Kenneth P. Vogel- Politico
March 30, 2008 11:38 AM EST
Hillary Rodham Clinton’s cash-strapped presidential campaign has been putting off paying hundreds of bills for months — freeing up cash for critical media buys but also earning the campaign a reputation as something of a deadbeat in some small-business circles.
A pair of Ohio companies owed more than $25,000 by Clinton for staging events for her campaign are warning others in the tight-knit event production community — and anyone else who will listen — to get their cash upfront when doing business with her. Her campaign, say representatives of the two companies, has stopped returning phone calls and e-mails seeking payment of outstanding invoices. One even got no response from a certified letter.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9259.html
"Is Hillary broke"?
March 29, 2008
BY MICHAEL SNEED Sun-Times Columnist
Scoop du jour? Sneed hears major money problems in the Clinton camp may soon become a coroner knocking on her campaign door.
To wit: Word is the cash feeding into Hillary Clinton's campaign coffers has not only slowed down in a big way, undisclosed campaign debts that have yet to be made public could signal the end and have insiders biting their nails.
"Hillary needs to raise money to stay alive," a top Dem source said.
http://www.suntimes.com/news/sneed/865494,CST-NWS-SNEED28.article
Posted by: Vince Foster lives | March 31, 2008 1:21 PM
Of course Clinton's Bosnia tale would have a strong negative effect--HRC's lying or “misspeaking” constitutes a recognizable pattern, and reminds many of the cr*p from the previous Clinton administration.
What’s truly bizarre, though, is that HRC risks lying about “dumb” stuff. She must think she won’t get caught, although when she does get caught, she seems to casually shrug off her “misstatements.” It’s bizarre, almost pathological.
Here are three dumb lies that beg the question: Why would she lie about this relatively inconsequential stuff? And what does that say about her ability to tell the truth about difficult matters?
***Appearing on NBC's DATELINE, Sen. Clinton told Jane Pauley that Chelsea was around the World Trade Center on the morning of Sept. 11th:
"She had gone on what she thought would be a great jog," Hillary Clinton explained. "She was going down to Battery Park, she was going to go around the towers. She was going to get a cup of coffee and - that's when the plane hit!"
Hillary's dramatic story about her daughter's close call with the Twin Towers became a media sensation. "At that moment, she was not just a Senator, but a concerned parent," TODAY show's Katie Couric told viewers on 9/18/2001.
TRUTH: In the Dec/Jan 2002 issue of TALK magazine, Chelsea wrote that she was staying at a friend’s apt in Union Square, 12 blocks away. Her friend called with news about the first plane crashing into the WTC. Chelsea turned on the TV and watched the second plane crash.
"I stared senselessly at the television," Chelsea writes.
****Hillary started claiming she was named after Sir Edmund Hillary after she met him in 1995. Bill Clinton even included this “true” story in his 2004 autobiography. Thing is, HRC was born in 1947, and Edmund Hillary didn’t conquer Mt. Everest until 1953, when HRC was 6 years old.
TRUTH: In October 2006, a campaign aide finally admitted it was not true after all, that it was just a “sweet family story that her mother told her to inspire greatness.” This sweet story, however, had never before been mentioned anywhere.
***On numerous other occasions, including in her Iowa stump speech, Clinton has said, "We used to say in the White House that if a place is too dangerous, too small or too poor, send the First Lady." And that lead to her being sent to Bosnia and coming under sniper fire.
TRUTH: Well, now we know.
Actually, what hasn’t been covered much are her cascading excuses or “misstatements” about this Bosnia tale, culminating in her saying this to KDKA radio in Pittsburgh on 3/25/08:
“I have written about this and described in many different settings and I did misspeak the other day,” Clinton said during a live 10-minute interview. “This has been a very long campaign….Last week for the first time in 12 years or so, I misspoke.”
Bizarro. No wonder Obama's lead has grown. It's a wonder it's not even bigger.
Posted by: None-So-Blind | March 31, 2008 1:24 PM
If Clinton want's people to start taking her seriously again she needs to start going after McCain on a fulltime basis, that's what I want to see from her.
She also needs to pay off her campaign debts, release all of her tax returns (2003-2007) and release the donar list to the Clinton libray.
If she want's to regain some of the credibilty and integrity she lost after the Bosnia lie this would be a good place to start, until she does this I will withhold any support I may have for her candidacy.
Posted by: Paula Jones | March 31, 2008 1:31 PM
This will all be over in a matter of weeks if not days. Hillary's shoes and pantsuits are about to be repossessed, I swear.
Clinton's planes will be grounded for lack of gas money, her phones will be cut off, electricity will get cut off and her credit cards will quit working any day now. She won't find any more vendors willing to give the bum anymore credit. The MSM will start talking about her long list of creditors and it will start to be curtains.
She is so in debt right now that the campaign has resorted to astroturfing her FUNDRAISERS! Check out the WSJ for Peggy Noonan's column. Noonan had bought a cheap seat, but then they moved a bunch of folks from the cheap seats into the "high dollar" area lest it look completely barren and empty.
Also - Slate has a deathwatch meter up.
TPM election central has the links....
The Clinton campaign has about $2 million in chargebacks that they need to issue for "accidentally" doublecharging donors on their credit cards
Posted by: Monica Lewinsky | March 31, 2008 1:34 PM
With Senators Leahy and Dodd requesting and suggesting that Hillary withdraw, you are beginning to hear a chorus of demands that the Democratic primary end now.
Join the chorus. Join the movement. Ask Senator Clinton to drop out of the race for the good of the Democratic Party and the welfare of the American people.
Visit: http://www.dropouthillary.org
Posted by: Drop Out Hillary! | March 31, 2008 1:41 PM
Billary, So I am chilling out already. I still would like your assurance that you will attack McCain and not Obama until you throw in the crying towel that you found your voice in. I am so sincere in my interest that I am sending a stamped self addressed envelope for your reply, since your campaign can no longer afford one.
Posted by: Tom S | March 31, 2008 1:49 PM
If Obama's supporters would stop trying to push her off the cliff she just might jump, herself. I'm sure she doesn't want to appear to be caving in to demands, and I don't really blame her. Barack is wise to say "stay in as long as you want Hillary." The point may be not how long she wants to stay in, but how long she can stay in.
Posted by: lemonfair | March 31, 2008 2:08 PM
It continues to amaze me how often people will speak negatively about the dishonesty and deceit of politicians, and then turn around and support Hillary Clinton. All she has to do is say what these people want to hear, and she's on her way. Drop in a few buzz words, like "35 yers of experience" or "ready on day one, " and she's good to go. Both these statements have been debunked over the recent months, but diehard supporters are blind to the truth. truly frightening. I for one have no interest in further prostituting the respect of the White House by electing a known liar.
Posted by: tony.s | March 31, 2008 2:19 PM
If Clinton drops out after Pennsylvania, how will the mainstream media be able to continue repeating the Republican talking points that a prolonged primary will destroy the Democratic Party? Would they actually start talking about McCain's ignorant and dangerous comments about Iran? Or how Republican economic policies have destroyed our economy? I doubt it.
Posted by: Paul | March 31, 2008 2:19 PM
B Hussein Obama is pushing for abortion and gay marriage and Roman Catholic Bob Casey is endorsing him. It is a scandal for any Catholic to endorse abortion it is not health care it is murder. There are many conservative Catholic Democrats in Pennsylvania I hope they confront Casey on his judgement of endosing an abortion pusher.
Obama as we know is a tax and spend liberal and runs with Tony Rezko, Jeremiah Wright, the antiwhite and antisemite, Auchi, Weather Underground terrorist William Ayres and pushed his sweet white grandmother under the bus to standup for Wright.This man lacks the resume to be CEO of the greatest nation on earth it is paper thin and he owes his political life to Dickie Durbin and Emil Jones and the Cook County machine no unique candidate here! Jerry White, Springfield, IL
Posted by: Jerry White | March 31, 2008 2:26 PM
"Is Clinton doomed by Obama getting Casey nod?"
Clinton is doomed, but not by this. She has managed to really, really antagonize the Democratic base. She has also managed to irritate Independents too.
More than anything, it seems like she is staying in because "it's her turn". Frankly, I'm sick of this entitlement theory. We the voters are entitled, not her. I think we are all entitled to try someone new. If Obama loses in the fall, so be it. But he had better not lose because Clinton keeps shooting at him knowing full well she cannot be the nominee.
Posted by: weinerdog43 | March 31, 2008 2:36 PM
This man lacks the resume to be CEO of the greatest nation on earth it is paper thin and he owes his political life to Dickie Durbin and Emil Jones and the Cook County machine no unique candidate here! Jerry White, Springfield, IL
Posted by: Jerry White | March 31, 2008 2:26 PM
Crazy Jerry,
Duck and cover! the black helicopters are looking for you in Springfield today.
Rush said so, so it must be true.
Posted by: John E | March 31, 2008 2:59 PM
Dunno who these perfessors are or where they grew up, but on the ground in PA--Casey's hated. He'll be luck to win his own damned primary.
Where do you get this claptrap from? Did these professors names come from the Obama campaign?
Posted by: golden oldie | March 31, 2008 3:29 PM
The simple fact of the matter is that a MAJORITY of Americans JUST DON'T LIKE Billary. And if you're a politician, you won't get anywhere if people JUST DON'T LIKE you, for whatever reason, legitimate or not.
Posted by: Chris From Long Island New York | March 31, 2008 3:54 PM
Pastor Wright and Obama where he denied being present when pastor made his headline-making sermons. I read where Jim Davis a reporter for NewsMaxx magazine says "he saw the would-be President at one of them last July 22, when the pastor blamed the "white arrogance" of America for the world's suffering and more bs.
Posted by: sd | March 31, 2008 4:20 PM
I read where Jim Davis a reporter for NewsMaxx magazine says "he saw the would-be President at one of them last July 22, when the pastor blamed the "white arrogance" of America for the world's suffering and more bs.
Posted by: sd | March 31, 2008 4:20 PM
You're using "Newsmax" as your trusted source of information?!?!
BwaHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Pretty soon the nutty rightwing lunitic fringers on here will be losing so badly they'll be using the National Enquier as the source for their hitjobs.
Posted by: John E | March 31, 2008 4:54 PM
Let's hope so. Enough!!!
Posted by: Logic Prisoner | March 31, 2008 4:59 PM
Be afraid...be very, very afraid...and be careful what you wish for. If Obama's what you want, then Obama's what you'll likely get. God help us all! What willyou do when you find out he was really listening to Rev Wright. He subjected his kids to the hate-speak didn't he. No one, and I mean NO ONE could attend a church for 20 years and not know and agree with its teachings. If you turn a blind eye and support Obama, by your silence you are condoning the anti-American hatred and supporting the other 7997 people at that church. If you want Rev Wright conducting the weekly prayer breakfasts at the White House and if you want the Panthers sleeping in the Lincoln bedroom then vote Obama and pray I'm wrong.
Posted by: Sue Donim | March 31, 2008 6:38 PM
Oh, did I say that I'd vote for McCain or stay home before I'd vote for Obama? Well I would!! That's a BIG change for me since I was ready and willing to vote for him before the press conducted such a one-sided campaign against Hillary (e.g. a choice of 1) and most certainly before Rev Wright and his vile speeches and writings came out. Anyone that believes Obama didn't know is a gullible fool!
Posted by: Sue Donim | March 31, 2008 7:25 PM
Oh, did I say that I'd vote for McCain or stay home before I'd vote for Obama? Well I would!! That's a BIG change for me since I was ready and willing to vote for him before the press conducted such a one-sided campaign against Hillary (e.g. a choice of 1) and most certainly before Rev Wright and his vile speeches and writings came out. Anyone that believes Obama didn't know is a gullible fool!
Posted by: Sue Donim | March 31, 2008 7:25 PM
Vote republican then ya traitor!!! You obviously can't handle hard-ball politics. Hillary can. So can Obama. Get over it.
Voting for more of McBush's war is borderline crimminal. But only you have to live with your decision. Look in the mirror. Do you really want more of this Iraq fiasco???
Posted by: McBush Family Value$ | April 1, 2008 4:42 AM
Why hasn't my comment from yesterday been posted?
Carolyn Kay
MakeThemAccountable.com
Posted by: Carolyn Kay | April 1, 2008 5:24 AM
Democrats NEED Clinton to stay in the race. OBAMA IS UNELECTABLE IN GENERAL ELECTION. Obamas campaign pastor is not going away anytime soon Rev Wright says you don't have to wait for the afterlife for the mansion on the hilltop, hes right! to shut him up Trinity United Church of Christ is building Rev. Wright a $1 mil house on a lot that was purchased for $345,000. According to his federal income tax return Obama gave the Trinity United church $22,500 in contributions. CBS Chicago has strangely not released video they have of Obama at Trinity United Church of Christ Service with Pastor Wright. According to a Chicago Tribune article, at the Service Obama spoke to the cheering congregation and the choir sang, “Hallelujah Barack”. After the service Wright and Obama sat together, laughing , talking and signing books. if ANY other candidate had this controversy swirling the footage would have found it’s way to the national and cable news networks by now! Obama who marched with Farrakhan”Obama AND OPRAHS Pastor Slurs Italians in Latest Magazine (CNSNews.com) Wright continues his Obama supported attacks on non-blacks now slurring Italians in issue of Trumpet Newsmag. Wright states, Jesus enemies had their opinion, Italians looked down their garlic noses at the Galileans, and Jesus death on a cross was a public lynching Italian style! This government runs everything from the White House to the schoolhouse, from the Capitol to the KKKlan of white supremacy who is clearly in charge. Every issue published Wright's rant against white people in which he covers a world that is controlled by white supremacy, a country that’s on its way to hell in a hand basket because of lying politicians, in a culture that still thinks 'white is right! He said young African-American Christians are more concerned about 'bling bling' than about freeing their minds and still Obama says I could no more disown him than I could disown the black community. Trumpet Newsmagazine started 80s, Wright is CEO and Wright's daughter, Jeri Wright, is the publisher. Requests for comments Obama camp of course not answered. Trumpet Nov/Dec edition, featured Louis Farrakhan, recipient of the Lifetime Achievement "Dr. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. Trumpeter" award. Farrakhan has called Judaism a "gutter religion" and said Jews are "bloodsuckers. Many of the biased cable news pundits try to make viewers believe Obama's speech limited damage of Wright controversy, but the general election will show voters strongly disagree, especially non-black voters. Obama refuses to explain to the public why he would have someone as such a close spiritual advisor and mentor and why he would expose two young daughters to such hatefulness against fellow Americans. The problem Wright's comments are not theological views, but political statements. This is a serious issue for Obama in general election. As with each new utterance on the topic of Reverend Wright, Barack Obama confirms his own moral obliviousness and he seems to have disdain for those who are troubled by his own unwillingness to break with Wright, even worse Obama still insists Wright is a brilliant man, So brilliant, apparently, that he has uncovered the plot by white America to kill African Americans, so insightful to perceive the 9/11 attacks caused by American terrorism and his discerning observation Israel is a “dirty” word, and still in Obama’s eyes, Wright is brilliant. This, we are told by biased cable news pundits like CNN Obamaphiles, is not supposed to affect voters’ view of Obama’s judgment. Perhaps voters are embarrassed to tell pollsters they are privately offended. General election Republicans as well as independents and democrats are irked by this moral obtuseness even though media like CNN or Hardball cover it up with bogus Clinton attacks.
Posted by: Jose | April 1, 2008 7:09 AM
Rev. Wright has already destroyed Obama's chances of becoming President.
Posted by: goldenstate | April 1, 2008 10:17 PM
For the few Hillabots still in denial, I'll tell you the truth. Even with Clinton receiving over 140,000 votes from Republicans who fraudulently voted Hillary just to screw the party over, when you look at the total number of votes by adding up the primary votes AND the votes cast at the caucases, it is OBAMA WHO IN FACT WON THE MAJORITY OF TOTAL VOTES IN TEXAS AND THE DELEGATE COUNT IN TEXAS AND THUS THE ENTIRE STATE OF TEXAS.
But let's be pragmatic here, winning a state simply means winning the majority of delegates to the national convention.
Some states distribute delegates through a simple primary vote, other states allow for discussions and hold caucases. Texas assigns delegates through both and then adds them together for the final determination of who won the state. Clinton barely won the primary portion and Obama strongly won the caucas portion, resulting in Obama undisputedly winning Texas.
See, now you understand. Now please go convince all the other Hillary supporters to unite together under our party nominee which is Obama. Each day this infighting continues, the odds of us doing another 4 more years of Bush/McCain increase. For the sake of America and our troops in Iraq, join us and let's defeat McCain together.
Posted by: ryan | April 2, 2008 1:34 AM
Rev. Wright has already destroyed Obama's chances of becoming President.
Posted by: goldenstate | April 1, 2008 10:17 PM
The polls alone would indicate your wrong. You give the American people such a small amount of credit. We can see through the Wright stuff. Pardon the pun. Many famous American preachers has said dumb things and had the ear of sitting presidents. The public is smart enough to figure out Obama on their own. He is bright. He is capable, and he is going to be our next president!!!
Posted by: McBush Family Value$ | April 2, 2008 3:06 AM