by John McCormick and Rick Pearson, updated
JOHNSTON, Iowa – Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama said Friday that if he fails to win the Iowa caucuses it will not be because he is a black man.
Asked whether he is getting a fair hearing in a state that is heavily white, Obama said during the taping of an influential, statewide public affairs program that he was.
"I am getting a fair hearing and I will get a fair hearing and I think we are going to win this place," he said during the taping of Iowa Public Television's "Iowa Press." "You have people who are less concerned about race and much more concerned about 'Is this somebody who is really going to be fighting for me?'"
David Yepsen of The Des Moines Register, the state's most influential political columnist, then sought to further clarify.
"If you don't do well in the caucuses, we're not going to hear David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs and all your spinners telling us, 'Well, Barack Obama didn't do well in Iowa because it's a lily white state,'" Yepsen asked, referring to Obama's top strategist and communications director.
"No," Obama said. "We have invested in Iowa. I have been campaigning in Iowa. We expect to do well in Iowa."
Obama said he believes the nation is ready to elect a black man president, a notion he said he bases on his own experience in Illinois.
"I heard this when I was running for the U.S. Senate. Illinois is 12 percent African-American. It’s not a majority African-American state or even a substantial plurality African-American state," he said. "People said there's no way folks Downstate are going to vote for you. And Downstate Illinois is pretty similar to Iowa, culturally and demographically. We ended up winning that primary by 20 points. We won the white vote, we won the rural vote, we won the farmer vote. There wasn't a vote we didn't win against strong candidates, one who spent $30 million dollars and another who was the sitting state comptroller."
But Obama's logic may be somewhat faulty. A review of 2004 U.S. Senate primary vote totals show Obama, with few exceptions, lost virtually every large county outside the Chicago metropolitan area. He won Champaign County and barely Sangamon County, but lost Peoria County, Madison County, Rock Island County and St. Clair County. In essence, it was the Chicago area that got him nominated, not Downstate voters.
Obama said he believes Iowa will "set the tone for a lot of what happens" in the nomination process. He said it is not enough to run "old textbook campaigns of the past" and that he is trying to offer voters "change they can believe in."
Asked if he can win Iowa, Obama had no hesitation.
"Oh, absolutely, I don't think there is any doubt that we are doing extraordinary well," he said. "We are clearly in a horse race with Senator Clinton and Senator Edwards and we have a great organization on the ground."
Then, Mike Glover of The Associated Press asked whether Obama could survive a loss in Iowa.
"We can do well and not necessarily win, and still continue on to the other states," Obama said. "But we intend to do very well in this state."
Obama said Democrats should nominate him because he can appeal to people across party lines.
"The polls and surveys show that I am able to appeal to Republicans and independents in a way that none of the other nominees can," he said. "And that means we can wide the field….We can win, I think, in suburban areas. We can win in states like Virginia."
Although he often attracts many potential young voters to his events, Obama said his campaign is not depending on the group to actually turn out. The Des Moines Register's polling, for example, shows that those under 25 represent only about 2 percent of likely caucus participants.
"We're not banking on young voters," he said. "We're going after the traditional Iowa caucus-goer."
But Obama said he suspects this election may be different.
"Young people recognize the big challenges that are coming up," he said. "They are going to be more motivated than they have been in the past."
Earlier in the morning, Obama met with eight women for a round-table discussion at a public library in Des Moines. With about three times that many reporters and photographers looking on, the group discussed issues faced by working and retired women for about 40 minutes.
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Comments
Mr. Obama neglected to say what he believes the reason will be if he loses, since he says it would not be race.
Posted by: Gentile | November 9, 2007 4:10 PM
Nope, it won't be because of race. It might be, though, because he listened to his "handlers" like the Not-Ready-For-Primetime Axelrod who steered him to the "center" instead of letting him be who he is.
What a waste.
Posted by: Greg | November 9, 2007 4:12 PM
Ah HILLARY not as smart not as articulate not as good-looking as 'IL DUCE - BENITO MUSSOLINI' but then pants-suits hide a lot of 'UGLINESS' is being 'attacked' for her stupidity and malapropisms!!! The FEMALE FASCIST first made the mistake of 'taking' maximum size donations from CHINESE DISHWASHERS who couldn't be traced. Next it was getting ILLEGALS to receive DRIVERS LICENSES when she tried to play the old CLINTON 'shell game' of being on all sides of the issue depending whom she was 'speaking at'. Now it is not giving a 'tip' to some frowsy little waitress that HILLARY wanted to 'schmooze' at a photo op for HILLARY and her band of DEMBHOLE-DIMWITS and sycophants. The 'commoners' hate you HILLARY. GO AHEAD DRAG OUT YOUR PRETEND-HUSBAND BILL aka D*CKHEAD - this adds even less to your 'so-called' credibility with his lies, mechanations, outright flaunting of MS. STRONACH and his other 'BIMBETTES' which you 'helped dispose of over so many years. All hail the 'new' FEMALE FUHRER - HILLARY!!! HIELE HILLARY!!! Ha! What a pathetic joke who has never achieved anything but be elected a U.S. SENATURD by DEMBHOLE-DUMMIES in NY where HILLARY said she was a NYYankees fan! Ha! And all 3 million papers which HILLARY claims prove her competence are locked safely away by order of yes, her co-conspirator one D*CKHEAD BILL. HILLARY a lying FASCIST for our times.
Posted by: Zyskandar A JaimotZ | November 9, 2007 4:50 PM
I agree, race is not the issue with Obama. He is chrismatic, intelligent, open and a consensus builder. If he loses in Iowa and New Hampshire it will be because he refuses to attack his opponents, speak negatively and does not connect well enough with voters at an emotional level. I strongly believe Obama is not the type who would use Presidential power inappropriately as we have seen with Bush, LBJ and Nixon.
It is still to early to know if voters will embrace Obama give him the opportunity to try and change direction in Washington. We may end up with the "old style politics" for another 4-8 years if he is not the Democratic nominee. Obama blames himself when no progress is made, Clinton blames everyone else (Health care; old boy network; media bias; etc.). Hardly valuable if the goal is to move ahead instead of just point fingers.
Posted by: PJW | November 9, 2007 5:30 PM
Obama blames himself when no progress is made, Clinton blames everyone else.
No Obama blames the Clinton name when no progress is made.
Posted by: hope | November 9, 2007 5:48 PM
[When] Barack loses it'll be because of his socialist message and his weakness to confront terrorism.
Oh...and his middle [Christian] name is "Hussein????"
Paulo
Posted by: Paulo | November 9, 2007 6:25 PM
He will not lose Iowa.
Posted by: Wang | November 9, 2007 7:32 PM
HILLARY said she was a NYYankees fan! Ha! And all 3 million papers which HILLARY claims prove her competence are locked safely away by order of yes, her co-conspirator one D*CKHEAD BILL. HILLARY a lying FASCIST for our times.
Posted by: Zyskandar A JaimotZ | November 9, 2007 4:50 PM
Z,
You seem to be infected with "Clinton hatred syndrome".
It happens alot on here to the usual pro-Republican posters (Johnny Dyslin, Brucie Allardice).
Here's the problem Z, you've been trained by the robot Republic Party machine to bark everytime you hear the Clinton family name the same way Pavlov trained his dog to bark everytime he rang the bell. Go to your personal doctor and tell him your problem and he will give you some pills to help you get rid of your sickness....and by the way, speaking of baseball, I noticed that Rudy Julieannie just recently said that he's both a Yankee's and a Red Sox fan, do you think Bernard Kerik agree's with him?
Posted by: Mr. D | November 9, 2007 7:56 PM
Obama isn't going to lose, and yes, paulo, he's a Christian.
Posted by: Bethany | November 9, 2007 8:32 PM
clinton is well expreeince- oabam too young and too green and no exprience plus black. and muslims.
Posted by: laura | November 9, 2007 11:04 PM
Bethany
American voters in a recent NBC/WSJ poll show only 30% believe Obama has enough experience to be prez and only 29% believe he would be a good commander in chief.
...try Ron Paul, he's one or two % points better.
Paulo
Posted by: Paulo | November 10, 2007 12:55 AM
Paulo....what about your name. Are you legal??
Posted by: Helen | November 10, 2007 3:37 AM
Ah HILLARY not as smart not as articulate not as good-looking as 'IL DUCE - BENITO MUSSOLINI' but then pants-suits hide a lot of 'UGLINESS' is being 'attacked' for her stupidity and malapropisms!!!
I DON'T THINK THIS WILL WORK ANYMORE Z, GO BACK TO YOUR REPUBLICAN HEADQUARTERS, REGROUP, AND RETHINK YOUR STRATEGIES TO BRING DOWN HILLARY. YOU'RE ALL PATHETIC.
--------------------------- But Obama's logic may be somewhat faulty. A review of 2004 U.S. Senate primary vote totals show Obama, with few exceptions, lost virtually every large county outside the Chicago metropolitan area. He won Champaign County and barely Sangamon County, but lost Peoria County, Madison County, Rock Island County and St. Clair County. In essence, it was the Chicago area that got him nominated, not Downstate voters.
WHAT A TOTAL LIAR, OBAMA WITH NO RECORD WILL SAY WHATEVER WILL MAKE HIM BIGGER THAN HE IS. THAT'S SO SAD, WHY CANT HE JUST ADMIT THAT HE IS YOUNG AND INEXPERIENCED AND RECOVER BY SAYING HE IS THE CANDIDATE OF HOPE AND PROMISE TO CHANGE POLITICS. WHO ADVISED HIM TO LIE ABOUT HIS RECORD? DONT THEY THINK THIS CAN BE VERIFIED.
COULD SOMEONE PLEASE SAVE OBAMA! WE NEED A CREDIBLE CANDIDATE, DON'T SPOIL YOUR CHANCES BY LYING.
Posted by: Santoro Romney | November 10, 2007 3:53 AM