Job market figures: a murky view
The state Department of Labor's most recent press release shows an unemployment rate of 5.2 percent in July--a decrease from the previous month, but a marked increase from a year ago. Job losses this year have totalled 20,200. On Long Island, while there was some nonfarm job growth, unemployment rose from 4.7 to 5 percent from June to July.
Still, things could be worse. While unemployment declined slightly in New York from June to July, nationwide, unemployment rose from 5.5 to 5.7 percent over the same period.
Before drawing any conclusions, it's worth parsing how politics might color the data. The New York Times notes that the state's report, which focuses on job losses over the past few months, "accentuated the negative" rather than "trumpeting the decline in joblessness."
Some question whether the state's current economic and fiscal issues are as dismal or as urgent as this report and the Governor's recent call to action in Albany suggest. The Fiscal Policy Institute, a liberal think tank, wonders if the Governor might be putting a negative spin on the job data to justify fiscal tightening--as he prepares to push budget cut proposals in next week's special legislative session.
We asked Trudi Renwick, a senior economist at FPI, for her take on the numbers. She said the unemployment figures are tricky, because job growth has, oddly enough, coincided with a rise in joblessness. Rising unemployment doesn't seem quite as frightening when considering that the growth in the labor force could simply be outpacing the growth in job openings (leaving more people looking for work). Any number of factors could be feeding this trend, she said:
"We really don't know why more more people entered the labor force... can be retired folks going back into the labor force because their pensions no longer cover their costs, spouses looking for jobs because their husband/wife has had their hours cut back or workers who had been discouraged now feeling there is an opportunity for a job."
Faced with such a complex economic landscape, lawmakers trying to fix the budget might want to reach for the pruning shears before starting up the lawnmower.
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Comments (1)
"The Fiscal Policy Institute, a liberal think tank, wonders if the Governor might be putting a negative spin on the job data to justify fiscal tightening--as he prepares to push budget cut proposals in next week's special legislative session."
So I'm assuming that this 'liberal think tank' doesn't want any budget cuts... that's why they've discovered this 'evil spin' to the news? I wonder why it has escaped their notice and the 'negative spin' in OK when it is intended to demean the current administration, or when it is intended to enhance Nobama's chances of getting into the white house. Same with the war in Iraq; the liberal media hasn't acknowledged that it's turned around, and that we're winning, again because I assume it is an embarrassment to the Dumbocrats.... all who had proclaimed that we had lost.
Enough with the 'spinning' of the news. It is the mainstream media's job to report it. That's all. Just report what is actually happening and let us form our own opinions.