Aging and migrating
Two curious trends stand out in the latest Census Bureau population report: We’re getting older and more foreign.
The retirement age group (age 65 and over) will rise from 13 to 20 percent of the population. Meanwhile, “net international migration” will rise steadily: the annual rate of immigration will grow from an estimated 1.3 million to more than 2 million between 2010 and 2050.
Add all that together and what do you get?
Maybe a doomsday scenario, if you're an advocate for tighter restrictions on immigration. Restrictionists might argue that a growing burden on social security will aggravate the supposed strain that immigrants impose on social programs.
But if you look carefully at how these two forces—aging and immigration—interact, a different narrative emerges. As taxpayers and workers, immigrants contribute to Social Security and this could strengthen the system's ability to absorb the aging population.
It’s a neat counterpoint to the arguments aired by anti-immigrant groups.
The Social Security Administration acknowledges that labor migration (both legal and illegal) will significantly impact the system's future finances. According to one estimate, “an increase in legal immigration of about a quarter of a million would reduce the 75-year actuarial deficit of the Social Security program by about 5 percent.”
Dean Baker, a blogging economist with the Center for Economic and Policy Research, thinks the federal government may even have underestimated immigration's influence on social security. Noting that the projected net migration rate of two million exceeds earlier estimates used in social-security calculations, he argues:
“A more rapid pace of immigration improves the financial situation of Social Security. If the Census projections prove correct, then close to 30 percent of the projected Social Security shortfall would be eliminated.”
The politics and ethics of immigration policy are much broader than the social security debate, of course, and immigrants can't completely rescue the country’s increasingly fragile nest egg. But the new census data does underscore the fact that workers aren’t arriving in this country just to break the bank.
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Comments (9)
A better solution for Social Security would be to prohibit abortion. We've killed 45 million babies since 1973, the vast majority would have been productive workers.
about time
"social security" (lower case) suggests ALL social programs: housing, food stamps, Medicaid, public education, & whatever else. Social Security (capitalized) is a program that workers pay into, but the workers AND their spouses (even divorced ones, under some circumstances) AND their children (under age 22, as long as they stay in school) get to collect from. If recent immigrants (or anyone else) pay into the Social Security system long enough, then they, & their spouses & children are entitled to collect from it. Whether anyone other than the worker SHOULD be able to collect is another issue. I'm quite thankful that Bush didn't succeed in "privatizing" Social Security. The big, bad government is now involved in bailing out companies who financed subprime mortgages. Would they do the same for individuals whose investments turned sour? I don't think so.
Social Security; abolish it. Our low life elected civil servants have been putting their grimy paws in the till and have been taking the S.S. money at their own will without the consent of their constituents. Social Security was to be temporary for the WWI Vets; it is just another tax the government wants, just like the surcharge on the phone bill that was supposed to be temporary to pay for the Spanish-American War, which still to this day we are paying for.
These are "educated guesses" based on current trends. What could really might be completely different.
Look at Europe between 1914 and 1945. Who would have guessed the events that took place.
Look at Europe today with Russia pushing its weight around. Europeans might feel the need to immigrate to the US again to feel safe. That would be a plus for the US and the rest of the World as we are also becoming a third world nation with the biggest bombs!
@ Clear Vision: A better solution for Social Security would be to prohibit abortion. We've killed 45 million babies since 1973, the vast majority would have been productive workers."
What a pathetically lame argument. Let's take the beliefs of a dying cult and pretend it makes for sensible public policy.
The opposite issue is the problem- overpopulation in a world draining it's basic resources.
As far the Church goes, it can be stupid on it's own dime.
@Just another Joe.
Another brilliant comment: "Social Security was to be temporary for the WWI Vets;"
And all this time our history books said it was part of the New Deal and started in 1937.
Are you allowed to breed? Maybe we need MORE abortions.
ImmiGrants PAY INTO Social SECURity ?
So if I understand Newsday's position, the immigrants who work off the books and wire money back to their home countries while 'soaking' the US systems are going to save our Social Security system? The illegal immigrants who deliver anchor babies during their illegal stay will help the United States?
What your story does make clear is that LEGAL immigration has potential benefits. That, of course, means that illegal immigration has dangers beyond what has even been discussed in the past because the more we look away from prosecuting illegal immigration, the more it becomes the entry method of choice. It needs to stop, and it needs to stop yesterday.
Close the borders, deport all illegals and regain control of our countries destiny.