Capitol Gains

The biggest prize for the Democrats on election night is the complete contol of the reapportionment map and the process by which it is developed. After the census of 1980, Assembly democrats were able to control their portion of the reapportionment map and over the years increased their numbers from the low 80s to an astonishing 109 this year!

Now, the Senate Democrats could have the same opportunity to control their own destiny. Look for the following to happen if they continue in control of the upper house in 2010:

Queens: The Padavan/Gennaro seat will become more favorable to a democrat candidate.

Nassau: Minor tweaks in SD7, to make Craig Johnson safer and a draw a new SD6 which puts more democrats into Kemp Hannon's district.

Suffolk: Lots of possibilities here. Probably, a new SD4 that ties Babylon in with Brentwood and Central Islip to either force Owen Johnson into retirement, or, ready it for a strong democrat challenger to him. SD3 will most likely move further into Brookhaven to assist Brian Foley. Add Stony Brook and North Central Brookhaven into SD1 to make it competitive for the day when Ken LaValle gives up this seat.

With ever increasing democrat enrollment on Long Island and throughout New York State, it will be easier to re-align senate districts to make them more favorable for democrat candidates. This is the big prize of Election 2008.

Tonight's election results are historic on many fronts. The nation has elected Barack Obama as its first African-American president. Suffolk County has elected Brookhaven Supervisor, Brian Foley ,to serve as its first democrat state senator since Edwin Bailey, Jr., about a century ago. Based on returns as of 11:45PM, it appears that for the first time in modern history the democrats will control the State Assembly, the State Senate and the Executive Chamber. The Senate GOP lost two of its aging members, Senators Caesar Trunzo and Serphin Maltese. The Senate democrats held on to all their incumbents. It appears at this moment that the open seat in western New York will remain in GOP hands. The Padavan-Gennaro race in Queens appears headed for a recount. It seems that the Senate Democrats will have a net gain of two or three seats, giving them a slim majority, but a majority nevertheless. At least on paper. SD 3 was not even close. Trunzo had too much going against him and it was impossible to swim against the tide.

Election Day...the day of judgement. That's the one thing I always loved about political campaigns...there is a finality to each cycle. Your strategy,tactics and candidates are finally judged by the voters. The TV ads are finished. The last piece of direct mail has hit the mailbox. The robocalls are winding down. The only thing left today is the GOTV effort. It is out of your hands and now in the hands of the electorate. At the end of the night, they will issue their report card. On some election days, after voting, I would go out and play a round of golf to kill the time. On others, I would go to selected polling places to check the turnout. I'd do the traditional pre-election newspaper and television interviews, then I'd head over to our election night headquarters at the Sheraton to have dinner with my wife. After dinner, I'd hunker down in our election night war room where I anxiously waited for the first results to appear. Thankfully, over the years as a camapign manager, consultant and party chair, I had more good nights than bad ones. Here are some of my memories:

There is an interesting post on Newsday's other political blog, Spin Cycle, entitled: "A student journalist's recent foray into GOP Islip." Kudos to the young journalist, Ryan Bonner, for getting it right. As an outsider, he was able to observe and figure it out. Too bad Caesar Trunzo has yet to figure it out. If yesterday's Siena poll,showing Brian Foley up by 56-34, is anything close to reality, the aging senator/party leader will not have to worry about going back to Albany. Thus, the attention will turn to getting Trunzo-Messina and their cronies out of Third Avenue (Islip GOP HQ) and maybe the rebuilding of the local party can begin. It doesn't take a genius to understand that the Islip GOP is beyond rock bottom, and fault can be laid squarely at the doorstep of the Trunzo-Messina regime. If Suffolk GOP Chairman Harry Withers , is smart, and wants to take the advice of this former GOP Chair, he will sit on the sidelines, refuse to fill vacancies, and, let the revolution begin.

In an earlier post, I wrote that there is usually at least one election that surprises everyone....a seat thought to be safe at the beginning of the cycle somehow goes down the tubes on election night. Could this year's surprise be SD 6...Senator Kemp Hannon vs. Kristen McElroy?

Hannon has always been a worry for the Senate GOP. To date, he has always survived. This year could be different. Democrat enrollment in the district has just surpassed Republican enrollment for teh first time. There is a significant african-american voting block here, in a year where minority voting will be at an all-time high. Add to this, the larger than usual turnout of young voters and female voters pre-disposed to vote for Obama and you might find trouble for the likeable incumbent. Obviously, the GOP senses a tightening of this race as they are now going negative on McElory.

Hannon may well survive, but this race could be the Senate sleeper!

I learned a long time ago never to rely on conventional wisdom when it comes to Newsday's Editorial endorsements. I saw them reject a quality candidate (John Flanagan) in an unprecedented primary endorsement, only to fall in love with him in subsequent years after observing his work in the State Senate.

This year, I am sure many are surprised that the liberal Newsday Editorial Board saw fit to endorse conservative Senator Caesar Trunzo over Brian Foley. The endorsement of Trunzo, though tepid, will allow the incumbent senator to trumpet this success during the closing week of the campaign. It gives Trunzo a flicker of hope when most everything else is moving against him. More importantly, it gives Trunzo the opportunity to hammer home the only point which could keep him in office. Namely, and I quote Newsday, "on balance, we think a GOP-controlled Senate will probably be better able to protect Long Island interests in this current fiscal crisis."

The question is, will it be enough?

Two weeks from tonight, we will be gathered around our television sets and our laptop computers soaking up the election results. At the risk of looking foolish, I am ready to tell our readers what I believe will happen on November 4.

Barack Obama will be our next president. Voter participation across the country will be the highest we have seen in recent memory. He will win because he kept a steady course. Tactically, his campaign was brilliant. He steadied himself after the conventions, let Sarah Palin self-destruct and showed the American people he could get the best of John McCain when they were on the same stage. In the final weeks, he had more resources to get his message out and that message appealed to the undecideds in the middle of the voting spectrum. After the economy took center stage, McCain never had a chance.

In SD 3, Brian Foley will end Caesar Trunzo's career in the New York State Senate. Not so much because he is a better candidate, but because the climate for change worked against the aging incumbent. The unprecendented number of younger voters and minority voters, coupled with the ineffective local republican organization, will spell doom for Senator Trunzo.

In Albany, the democrats will control the NYS Senate. In addition to losing Trunzo, the republicans will lose Maltese, Robach and the open seat in Buffalo. The tidal wave will be just too great for the GOP to overcome.

At the end of the day, this election cycle will be historic in many ways. The election of the first african-american president. The election of a democrat state senator in Suffolk. The election of a democrat majority in the State Senate and, therefore, for the first time in recent history complete control over the legislative/executive process. Who would have thought it possible, even a few years ago? Certainly, not me.

With due respect to my good friend, Mike D., I don't think anybody is counting out either candidate at this point. Mike knows polling better than I, so I value his analysis. However, it is hard to see things moving in Caesar Trunzo's direction. Obama has righted the ship and his lead keeps widening on Long Island. The Islip organization GOP is useless. Brian Foley's last television commercial is his best yet.

The local democrats back load most of their campaign efforts and spending during the last two weeks of election day. The electorate's desire for change does not work to an aging incumbent's advantage. The Senate GOP Campaign Committee has no choice but to pull out all the stops for Trunzo. But, then again, so will the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee do the same thing for Foley. Today, I'd call it neck and neck. My intutition tells me that current trends give Foley a better chance to reach the finish line first, but it is going to be very close.

The horse (Obama) is back on stride! On September 10, I wrote that the Obama campaign was seriously off stride. Too much attention was being paid to Sarah Palin by the Obama campaign and not enough attention on getting Barack Obama to connect with ordinary voters. This was confirmed in a Siena College poll a few days later, which showed John McCain trailing Obama by only five points. Thursday's new Siena poll now shows Obama with a 22 point lead in New York over McCain. This cannot be good news for State Senator Caesar Trunzo and other GOP State Senators who are fighting for their lives in marginal districts. A poll is just a snapshot of a point in time and there is still 33 days to go. A lot can still happen, but things right now appear to be moving strongly in Obama's favor and Obama's message is change.

I just had an opportunity to view Brian Foley's new ad entitled "Bull".

A couple of first impressions:

The picture of Caesar Trunzo makes him a lot younger than he actually is. By saying, "he voted for this" and "he voted for that," Foley actually makes Trunzo look like a man of action, rather than a back bencher. I would have used language like: "he stood by," rather than, "he voted for.

I thought the ending was tacky and harsh. I would have shown the bull with a voice over that said: "BULL-LONEY" to bring some softness, levity and clarity...rather than just letting the Bull hang out there.

It will be interesting to see if this ad actually helps or hurts Foley. Comments,please?

I just had an opportunity to view Brian Foley's new ad entitled "Bull".

A couple of first impressions:

The picture of Caesar Trunzo makes him a lot younger than he actually is. By saying, "he voted for this" and "he voted for that," Foley actually makes Trunzo look like a man of action, rather than a back bencher. I would have used language like: "he stood by," rather than, "he voted for.

I thought the ending was tacky and harsh. I would have shown the bull with a voice over that said: "BULL-LONEY" to bring some softness, levity and clarity...rather than just letting the Bull hang out there.

It will be interesting to see if this ad actually helps or hurts Foley. Comments,please?

Both candidates can find comfort in today's Siena College Poll of Senate District 3. The bottom line is that this contest is still very much up for grabs. Considering the margin of error, this race could very well be a statistical dead heat. That is good news for Brian Foley, who trails an incumbent by just six points. The fact that Caesar Trunzo has a six point lead is also encouraging for him. In fact, here are several encouraging signs for Trunzo:

Trunzo trails by just 2 points in Brookhaven and has a 12-point lead in Islip.

Trunzo's Republican base appears stronger than Foley's democrat base.

Trunzo has a significant lead among younger voters which is surprising.

But, there is also the good news for Foley:

Foley leads with women and minority voters, who are expected to turn out in disproportionately larger numbers in this presidential election year.

Foley enjoys a slight lead among independent voters.

The key to this race appears to be the undecided independent voters, especially in Brookhaven. Independent voters make up the largest block of undecided voters and very well may decide this contest.

Right now, McCain vs. Obama is a dead heat in this district. Foley needs Obama to do better. Trunzo needs McCain to continue to keep it close.

If this poll is to be believed, the SD 3 race at the present time is very tight and could well be headed for a photo finish on election night!!

Look for lots of money to be spent and appearances on behalf of the candidates by the big guns on both sides in the weeks to come. This is exciting!

Interesting to note that latest campaign filing reports for Senate Democrat and Republican campaign committees show that Brian Foley is number one on the Democratic spending list, receiving about $291,000, while Caesar Trunzo is third on the Republican spending list, receiving about $160,000. What does this mean?

Does it mean Senate Democrats see Foley as the best chance for a pick-up?

Does it mean Senate Republicans aren't as worried about Trunzo as some of their other seats?

Or, does it mean something else?

The old adage that a poll is just a snapshot of a point in time was never more true than it is this morning. With the latest polls seeming to show John McCain on the rise, what will be the impact of yesterday's financial news on the presidential contest? Will McCain be hurt because he appears to look like President Bush when he says, "the fundamentals of our economy are strong"?

Will McCain benefit because of his experience gained in tough times? Will Barack Obama benefit because people will blame this financial crisis and lack of financial regulation on Bush and the republicans, and thus,demand a change in leadership? Will Obama be hurt because of his lack of experience in economic matters? How will the market mess effect the State Senate races?

I don't have the answers to these questions, but I thought maybe we could start a dialogue. The answers will come as events unfold and the next set of polls come out ten days from now. My sense is that the presidential candidate who gains a comfort level with the voters on the handling of economic issues will have a big leg up as this race enters the backstretch run!

Interesting article in the New York Times on Sunday about the change in demographics on Long Island. In Nassau, Democratic Party enrollment is about to surpass Republican enrollment. In Suffolk, the Republican lead of 100,000 voters has dwindled to 40,000 in the last decade. While shocking, this is no surprise to veteran politicos. The problem is that the republicans never took it seriously. In Suffolk, after the 1994 elections, the Republican Party had won back two congressional seats (Downey and Hochbruckner), the county executive (Halpin) and the governorship (Cuomo). Since then, every one of these offices, and scores of local offices, are now in hands of the Democratic Party. Similar trends, have occurred in Nassau, Westchester and upstate. How this happened is another story. How it has imperiled the Republican majority in the State Senate is not.

State Senator Caesar Trunzo should debate Brian Foley, but don't hold your breath. Do you really think he wants to go head to head with a more articulate opponent? Do you really think he wants you to see an 82-year old incumbent debating a much younger opponent in a year when voters are crying out for change? Trunzo will stick to his tried and true game plan, which is greeting voters at shopping centers, handing out potholders and pounding the airwaves with commercials extolling his virtues while beating up on his opponent's record. Unfortunately for Trunzo, there is no Republican army to help him anymore. He's driven the Islip GOP into the ground. Nobody is there to help him. That is his major problem. Whether it is insurmountable, or not, is still in question. A lot will depend on how Foley runs his campaign.

Interesting posts by my colleagues. I agree with Bruce that Hillary could be a help, but I doubt you will see that happening. Wolfson's already out there saying she shouldn't do it...which means she isn't going to do it, and yesterday, she mentioned Palin only in passing while campaigning for Obama and Democrats in New York City. The problem is that Hillary wants to be perceived as helping, but she doesn't really want Obama in the White House.

I agree with Gary that Palin will energize the conservative base and that will help increase turnout for Trunzo. Her entry on the ticket is an unexpected plus for the State Senator. The big question is how much of this boost cuts into the unprecedented turnout of women, minorites and younger voters who are expected to vote for Obama and lean towards Foley? That's why they call this contest a horse race!

Today, we are going to take a look at the Senate District 3 race in terms of the political organizations that are invested in this contest.

NYS GOP… Don’t expect to see a huge amount of money coming to Trunzo from the State Republican organization. Their focus will most likely be on the 2010 race for Governor. I don’t think they will be a major player.

NYS DEMS…The same can be said for the State Democratic organization. Their priority will be getting Patterson re-elected in 2010. Because they are the party in power they can provide manpower to assist challenger Brian Foley.

Senate Republican Campaign Committee … They will be the major player for Caesar Trunzo in this race. It is life and death to hold on to the Senate majority and this race could wind up to be the most hotly contested in all of New York State. Trunzo can expect a huge infusion of money and help from the Senate Republicans. In fact, given the state of the county and local GOP organizations, the Senate GOP Campaign Committee would be wise to just come in and take over this race, from top to bottom.

Senate Democratic Campaign Committee… In previous years, namely Trunzo’s races against Foley’s father and against Suffolk Executive Steve Levy, the Democratic Campaign Committee promised their candidates a lot of money, but that money never materialized. That will not be the case this year. Although, they probably can’t match State Republican Campaign Committee dollar for dollar, they will put a substantial amount of money and manpower into this race. They smell victory here and will do everything they can to keep Foley competitive.