In light of Tom Golisano's entry into key State Senate contests, mostly on behalf of Democratic challengers, the pressure is reportedly already on Mayor Michael Bloomberg from the Republicans, to match Golisano dollar for dollar. But will Bloomberg answer that call and come on full bore on behalf of the Senate Republicans?
I think Bloomberg has many factors to consider before deciding on how to play the State Senate races in the closing stretch. First, does Bloomberg want to run for Governor as a Republican in 2010? If the answer is yes that would push him to go all out to secure the Senate Republican majority this year heading into, the 2010 election. But recent reports that Mayor Bloomberg is seriously considering seeking a change in NYC's term-limits law, so he can seek re-election, is a strong indicator that Bloomberg does not want to run for governor.
Does Bloomberg really want to run for a third term or is he merely toying with a City Council who so desperately wants the term limits law changed, because many of the Council members can not run for re-election in 2009?
In brief, is this a ploy to get the Council to do his bidding, because so long as the prospect of changing the term limits law is on the table this City Council, so under scrutiny for member item irregularites, cannot afford to cross the Mayor or his program.
Or does Bloomberg really want to be Treasury secretary or head of the World Bank in the next presidential administration? Take note: Bloomberg has positioned himself to be able to deliver a timely and consequential endorsement to either Obama or McCain. He could be a bridge for either to the vital center of the electorate, and his endorsement won't hurt in the Jewish community that is pivotal not only in New York State, but also in the key electoral vote states of Florida, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Connecticut. Therefore, if Bloomberg decides to endorse Obama, in hopes of securing a major position in the Obama administration, he will not want to face any opposition form NYS Dems to that prospect. And hence, that would argue for Bloomberg not going all out for the Senate Republicans.
Mayor Bloomberg has had a consistent political equivalent of a foreign policy throughout his second term. He will move heaven and earth to avoid lame duck status. Consequently, he has generated massive media speculation about whether he wanted to run for President, Governor, even Mayor again (despite the fact that a re-election run is currently precluded by law). Thus, Bloomberg has been masterful -- for not a lame duck feather has fallen near him much less attached itself to him. My hunch is that Bloomberg will not decide how to play the State Senate races until he decides what to do next; and that decision in turn becomes the predicate for his calculation on whether to go all out in the State senate races.
How can we pierce the veil of Bloomberg's intensely personal decision-making process? I think the best way is to try a literary trick. If you click below, I have drafted an imaginary and therefore wholly fictional diary entry by Mayor Bloomberg into how he really sees his role in 2008. I have no inside sources and am relying totally on newspaper accounts, his public comments and my years of advising political leaders in our state.I don't know if I am right or wrong. but this fictional diary entry will provide an analytical framework for you to think along with Mayor Bloomberg and his advisers as they chart his path in 2008.
The following to repeat is an imaginary and fictional diary entry by Michael Bloomberg (a de facto memo to himself). What Gary Wills might call Bloomberg Agonistes. Here goes--let's have some fun.
An imaginary look inside the mind of Mayor Bloomberg:
Uggh, that Tom Golisano has put me in a bad spot. Ever since Golisano said he would spend $5 million on behalf of candidates he supports and aimed his guns almost exclusively against the Senate Republicans in key contests, Dean Skelos has been all over me. Now the Republicans want me to match Golisano dollar for dollar this Fall in the marginal Senate races. Plus, they want me to run for governor in 2010. If I go that route I make an enemy of Governor Paterson, whose help I need in 2009, and if I guess wrong on who will control the Senate, I will likely push Malcolm Smith and his newly majority conference into Silver's arms. Shelly just loves to derail my plans, from Jets stadium to congestion pricing. So I need to be careful here.Dean and me
The NY Republicans need to chill. I will not make my decision on their timetable, I will make it on mine. I need to figure out what I want to do next before I decide how to play the State Senate races. Dean Skelos is a nice guy. I enjoyed taking him to Athens with me for the Olympics in 2004. He is a gentleman and a very shrewd political tactician. But I made my deal with Joe Bruno. Will Dean be as reliable an ally as Joe was?
Dean and his LI core were not really helpful on congestion pricing. Plus, Malcolm did try to help me on congestion pricing and he crossed party lines in 2005 to endorse my re-election. And Malcolm played a positive and constructive role during the Sean Bell tragedy. That sad killing was in his district. But in making his case, he never inflamed the minority community.
Yet, I don't want to lose what I have with Dean and his conference. Again, I need to play this carefully. I must open political options , not close any doors for next year by acting in haste this year.
I have kept everyone off balance to avoid becoming a lame duck. So long as the pols and the pundits have thought I will be around after my term ends in December of 2009, whether as president, or vice president, Treasury secretary, head of the World Bank, Governor, or even Mayor for a third term. Most folks have not figured that out and they keep biting on whatever bait my political agent Kevin Sheekey puts on our fishing pole. I am so lucky to have Kevin mangling my political portfolio.Steve Rattner should be so good on the financial side.
National stageEnough digressions, let me review my national options. If I want to be Treasury Secretary or go over to the World Bank, I am set up for it. All I have to do is figure out who will ultimately win McCain or Obama and make my endorsement a week before it is apparent to everyone else who will win. Note to self: make sure our pollsters are keeping on top of things, so I know the decisive trendline just before the media does. Both Obama and McCain could use my help.
But I can't make the wrong bet. For example, if I backed McCain and he lost, the Blacks would be furious and that would put wind into Comptroller Thompson's sails whether I sought third term or not, 'cause if I am not going to Washington, I still have to govern in 2009. Plus, I have put a lot of time and effort into building support in the Black community. 47 percent of Blacks voted for me against Ferrer in 2005 -- that really built up my margin and my political capital going forward.
It would be much easier for me if Obama won. Plus, even if my friend McCain wanted to give me an appointment, that kooky right wing would oppose me over guns, gay marriage and abortion. I will never forgive that NRA crowd for sinking my gal Diana Taylor's federal appointment a few year's back.
So if I want to join the cabinet, Obama is my best bet. Therefore, must keep Senate Republicans at bay, without losing them, until I can see what role I ultimately want to play in presidential election.
As an aside, if McCain wanted a woman for VP, and that made sense, why didn't he pick Carly Fiorina or Meg Whitman? The Dems would have passed out if they were facing a female CEO as the Republican VP candidate. Could not patronize Meg or Carly. But again the right wing of McCain's party dictated a down the line pro life woman like Palin (or is it Pallin? I can't remember the spelling). Yeah, if I want the cabinet, Obama is my best bet. Plus, he needs my help more in terms of the Jewish vote. Going to Florida in late October with Barack would not be a bad trip. Could scoot to my place in Bermuda on the back end of the trip.
Home turfI have already signaled that I don't want to run for governor. The media missed it, but David Paterson sure picked up on it. He is a much shrewder cookie that most people think. As soon as I let it out that I was making a serious move to overturn term limits so I could run and win a third term, David jumped on board and expressed support. He recognized that running for guv would be much easier for me than running gauntlet on changing term limits law and then running for a third term. Most didn't pick up on that signal. But that will give David what he needs right now. Until I signaled what I would do re: running for governor, the movers and shakers were treating me as if I were Godot and waiting. Now they will start making their bones with Paterson. He better remember that when his budget director puts the final recommendations before him -- and when Shelly sharpens the knives for me again. I think he will remember, plus I could always change my mind. But like I said, David is much tougher and nuanced as a political leader than the media thinks, especially the print pundits.
So the question is, do I really want to run for a third term as mayor? My kitchen cabinet: Sheekey, Patty Harris and Ed Skyler are all opposed to a third term but I even have them guessing that I may do it. They even leaked to Times to show their opposition. Their opposition, in that Times story, shows I am serious, which means I have City Council and Speaker Christine Quinn boxed. Christine wants so very badly to be mayor, but that member item slush fund scandal kills her short term. She needs time to rebuild. But until she does rebuild, she can't control the Council as well as she used to. So I floated this term limits change, so I control the Council. I will keep it hanging out here until after I fully explore my options at the Treasury and World Bank. Until I act, the Council can't risk bucking me. If they were to move for term limit changes without me they will get killed in media over their slush funds. I have turned them into a docile kitty cat.They can wait until after election day for me to make up my mind. Plan A is cabinet, Plan B is re-election.
Billy Thompson is the only one who saw this clearly. The Comptroller stood strong and said if the term limits law is to be changed it must be changed by referendum, not by Council. Of course he is right and he is standing up to me without attacking me. Quinn, Weiner, Markowitz and the other candidates were cowed into silence. If my play for a federal position works, Thompson will emerge as the winner of this skirmish. Quinn is still on the ropes and Weiner, who I can not abide after his demagoguery on congestion pricing,will both be like suspension bridges anchored at neither shore (the worst position in politics). Same mistake Mark Green made after 9/11 when that Rudy boomlet for a third term almost cost me the election in 2005. I hung tough while Green was cowed. Thompson learned that lesson; the others apparently have not.
Weighing the optionsSo I won't answer quite yet the Senate Republicans' calls to imitate that spendthrift Golisano. Maybe I will hold them off with a sizable housekeeping contribution, in a few weeks, so I don't anger them in case my presidential play does not pan out or If McCain becomes the play. I must remind Sheekey to have polling done at national level as well as in key State Senate races.It is just like putting money behind a trade on Wall Street, before you make a big move know where market is heading.
If I lock in on Obama, I can not afford to have NY State Democrats opposing me for appointment by Obama. Thank the Lord, I had that nice welcome home reception for Hillary. I must remember to call Schumer, Rangel and Smith to wish them nice days every couple of weeks. I will need their quiet support as well as the Governor's, if I decide to play the Obama card. I could sit in Alexander Hamilton's seat in the cabinet. And the way the economy is nose diving in terms of the foreclosure induced credit crisis, that job could give me just what I need to cap my improbable journey into elective politics.
But let's not get carried away. I want all options open: Obama, McCain, and a third term, so I should call Dean frequently as well. Time for some rest, 'cause I will have a decision to make in a month or so.
Comments (1)
The Legal community as well as New York Citizens are totally ignorant of how badly our chief judge, Judith Kaye managed new york courts, destroying thousands of perfectly legitimate lawsuits for convience, when the courts were so understaffed with judges. As the annual court report reveals, every judge starts off with over one hundred cases, and has added four to five new cases every day. There is no way that any judge can handle such a caseload. Instead of complaining of how we needed more judges, Judge Kaye only complained of how she didn't make enough money. She spent millions of dollars and the last two years away from the courthouse, spending the taxpayer's money on her own self promotion and greed, with the help of the New York Law Journal, Chief Administrative Judge Lippman, and the Office of Court Administration. She was never in her office - she never did her work - she never educated herself about the cases that were before her, and she lied and falsifed thoursands of cases for her own convience. She did more damage to new york citizens than the Mafia ever could, and she was able to creat her false "Pillar Of Society" immage when in fact she is, and always has been nothing but a, greedy, lying, commercial litigator. Good riddance sleezebag Judith Kaye. signed, Stephen Dibbs, 155 Ave. B, N.Y.C., N.Y.