Capitol Gains

The biggest prize for the Democrats on election night is the complete contol of the reapportionment map and the process by which it is developed. After the census of 1980, Assembly democrats were able to control their portion of the reapportionment map and over the years increased their numbers from the low 80s to an astonishing 109 this year!

Now, the Senate Democrats could have the same opportunity to control their own destiny. Look for the following to happen if they continue in control of the upper house in 2010:

Queens: The Padavan/Gennaro seat will become more favorable to a democrat candidate.

Nassau: Minor tweaks in SD7, to make Craig Johnson safer and a draw a new SD6 which puts more democrats into Kemp Hannon's district.

Suffolk: Lots of possibilities here. Probably, a new SD4 that ties Babylon in with Brentwood and Central Islip to either force Owen Johnson into retirement, or, ready it for a strong democrat challenger to him. SD3 will most likely move further into Brookhaven to assist Brian Foley. Add Stony Brook and North Central Brookhaven into SD1 to make it competitive for the day when Ken LaValle gives up this seat.

With ever increasing democrat enrollment on Long Island and throughout New York State, it will be easier to re-align senate districts to make them more favorable for democrat candidates. This is the big prize of Election 2008.

Tonight's election results are historic on many fronts. The nation has elected Barack Obama as its first African-American president. Suffolk County has elected Brookhaven Supervisor, Brian Foley ,to serve as its first democrat state senator since Edwin Bailey, Jr., about a century ago. Based on returns as of 11:45PM, it appears that for the first time in modern history the democrats will control the State Assembly, the State Senate and the Executive Chamber. The Senate GOP lost two of its aging members, Senators Caesar Trunzo and Serphin Maltese. The Senate democrats held on to all their incumbents. It appears at this moment that the open seat in western New York will remain in GOP hands. The Padavan-Gennaro race in Queens appears headed for a recount. It seems that the Senate Democrats will have a net gain of two or three seats, giving them a slim majority, but a majority nevertheless. At least on paper. SD 3 was not even close. Trunzo had too much going against him and it was impossible to swim against the tide.

Election Day...the day of judgement. That's the one thing I always loved about political campaigns...there is a finality to each cycle. Your strategy,tactics and candidates are finally judged by the voters. The TV ads are finished. The last piece of direct mail has hit the mailbox. The robocalls are winding down. The only thing left today is the GOTV effort. It is out of your hands and now in the hands of the electorate. At the end of the night, they will issue their report card. On some election days, after voting, I would go out and play a round of golf to kill the time. On others, I would go to selected polling places to check the turnout. I'd do the traditional pre-election newspaper and television interviews, then I'd head over to our election night headquarters at the Sheraton to have dinner with my wife. After dinner, I'd hunker down in our election night war room where I anxiously waited for the first results to appear. Thankfully, over the years as a camapign manager, consultant and party chair, I had more good nights than bad ones. Here are some of my memories:

Continue reading "Howard DeMartini: Election day memories" »

There is an interesting post on Newsday's other political blog, Spin Cycle, entitled: "A student journalist's recent foray into GOP Islip." Kudos to the young journalist, Ryan Bonner, for getting it right. As an outsider, he was able to observe and figure it out. Too bad Caesar Trunzo has yet to figure it out. If yesterday's Siena poll,showing Brian Foley up by 56-34, is anything close to reality, the aging senator/party leader will not have to worry about going back to Albany. Thus, the attention will turn to getting Trunzo-Messina and their cronies out of Third Avenue (Islip GOP HQ) and maybe the rebuilding of the local party can begin. It doesn't take a genius to understand that the Islip GOP is beyond rock bottom, and fault can be laid squarely at the doorstep of the Trunzo-Messina regime. If Suffolk GOP Chairman Harry Withers , is smart, and wants to take the advice of this former GOP Chair, he will sit on the sidelines, refuse to fill vacancies, and, let the revolution begin.

If the election were held today, the Republicans would lose the State Senate.

Let me repeat that: if the election were held today, the New York State Senate would be controlled by the Democrats.

Now, before anyone accuses me of having a partisan agenda for saying this, let me pre-empt you by saying that you’re right. I’m certainly a Democratic partisan, and I’ve been heavily involved in campaigns to win the State Senate for years.

But don’t take my word for it. Look at the latest round of polling by Siena College. The Siena Research Institute has found that every Democratic incumbent should be re-elected, while veteran Republican State Senators Caesar Trunzo and Serf Maltese will be defeated.

The Republicans enter Tuesday’s election with the bare minimum of 32 seats necessary to control the Senate. So the loss of even a single seat will cost the Republicans their majority. In a tumultuous year for New York State politics, the seismic shift that will arise out of the Democrats taking the Senate will have less tabloid appeal than the travails of Eliot Spitzer or Vito Fossella, but a greater lasting impact on the state.

The last time the Democrats controlled the Senate was 1965—three years before I was born—and the year my father was first elected to the State Assembly. Beyond that one year blip of Democratic control in the ‘60s, it’s hard for most people to comprehend how long it has been since the State Senate was Democratic. So, let me put it in perspective.

The last time the Democrats won and held control of the NYS State Senate was the Franklin Roosevelt landslide of 1932. When, in a time of economic crisis and turmoil abroad, a brilliant and charismatic Democratic nominee for President galvanized the nation. Sound familiar?

Continue reading "Evan Stavisky: A Victory 43 Years In The Making As Polling Predicts Senate Democratic Majority" »

Newsday’s recent endorsement of Long Island incumbent Senators was quite disappointing. Even more disappointing was their endorsement of Caesar Trunzo. Newsday expressed their reason for endorsing Trunzo was to keep the Senate in control of the Republicans.

I just don’t buy that argument. I don’t see why you would want to continue a status-quo, do-nothing situation. We need to have real change. If we continue politics as unusual in New York State, we will get even further into fiscal crisis while not providing quality services. The party bickering and power plays that happen regularly are just killing us.

These elected officials use their power to help their party rather than doing what is right. I am so tired of good policy options being called “politically impossible” because the conservative Senate would not pass it. Let’s try real change and see real cooperation with legislators sharing the common goal of supporting New Yorkers and ensuring every resident has a good quality of life.

The funny thing about this discussion of the control of the Senate is that voters generally do not care about this and are not thinking about it as they go into the voting booth. They are worried about how they will pay for their mortgage and property taxes, how they will get decent health care coverage, and how their children will be able to afford college. The candidate who addresses these real issues will win.

In an earlier post, I wrote that there is usually at least one election that surprises everyone....a seat thought to be safe at the beginning of the cycle somehow goes down the tubes on election night. Could this year's surprise be SD 6...Senator Kemp Hannon vs. Kristen McElroy?

Hannon has always been a worry for the Senate GOP. To date, he has always survived. This year could be different. Democrat enrollment in the district has just surpassed Republican enrollment for teh first time. There is a significant african-american voting block here, in a year where minority voting will be at an all-time high. Add to this, the larger than usual turnout of young voters and female voters pre-disposed to vote for Obama and you might find trouble for the likeable incumbent. Obviously, the GOP senses a tightening of this race as they are now going negative on McElory.

Hannon may well survive, but this race could be the Senate sleeper!