Spin Cycle

Just when you thought the whole story couldn't get any worse for Bernard Kerik, the disgraced former NYC police commissioner and would-have been U.S. homeland security secretary:

Former Iraq correspondent Stephanie Gaskell breaks a story in the Daily News quoting retired Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, the top military leader in Iraq from June 2003 to June 2004, saying Kerik's effort to train Iraqi police five years ago "a waste of time and effort." There was talk of police raids to liberate prostitutes, oddities with supplies, and a lack of understanding of the tasks at hand on behalf of the ex-commish, according to Sanchez, who has a book coming out.

Part of Kerik's response, as quoted, is that he didn't have much regard for Sanchez's approach, which he charges was too distant from what Iraqis needed. Kerik still faces federal corruption charges stemming from his dealings as a city commissioner, in a case complicated by the dismissal of his lawyer to avoid a potential conflict of interest.

This one was snapped by Newsday's Ken Sawchuk in August 1997 at City Hall, where then Mayor Rudy Giuliani declared a ceremonial Indian-American Day in the five boroughs. In other words, we did NOT get this from a rival Republican before Giuliani withdrew from the presidential race last month...

Another in a seemingly endless stream of epilogues has been written to the story of Bernard Kerik’s role in the Giuliani administration.

On Friday was announced the conviction in Manhattan Criminal Court of Alan J. Risi and Joanne Ruscillo in connection with a bid-rigging scheme. As charged by investigators, they colluded in efforts to buy back surplus security doors from the city – which a Risi-connected company, Georal, had initially sold the city in purchases arranged through Kerik’s assistant John Picciano, first when the two were in power at the Correction Department and later at the Police Department.

The questionable purchases became a widely-publicized million-dollar boondoggle during Giuliani's tenure. Risi has already pleaded guilty to grand larceny and paid a $50,000 fine for submitting fake invoices to the city while performing maintenance on entrance doors to city office and court buildings.

Kerik is still facing separate, federal criminal charges.

Click on the continued bar below for the city Department of Investigation statement.

Dan Janison

The biggest New York primary contest of its kind in decades has sent party operatives scouring results district by district for hints at what’s to come in next fall’s general election.

Numbers remain rough and unofficial, but it appears that more than 1.7 million Democrats voted in New York State’s presidential primary last week. Republican voters totalled just over 600,000, or 35 percent of Democratic turnout.

The major parties are already at war this year for control of the state Senate, where Majority Leader Joseph Bruno’s Republican conference holds a slim margin. In two weeks, there’s a special election for a vacant upstate seat, and the spin from both camps is well under way.

“The contrast between the two parties heading into November couldn't be more stark,” declared state Democratic committee spokesman Jonathan Rosen. “There is palpable excitement at the grassroots level among Democrats all over the state...The Republican party is depressed, divided and on the defensive.” State and Nassau GOP Chairman Joseph Mondello, in photo at right, who earlier pinned hopes on a Rudy Giuliani nomination, said: “With Senator McCain at the head of our ticket, Republicans in New York and across the nation can look forward to a bright future.”

By Friday, the Democratic vote was 998,749 for Hillary Clinton and 694,493 for Barack Obama. Adding in the totals for dropouts still on the ballot, turnout hit 1,715,006 or 32 percent of the official number of registered Democrats. John McCain won New York on Tuesday with more than half of the reported 607,011 GOP votes, marking an official 20 percent Republican turnout. (Turnout percentages are a bit blurry; for one thing, so-called motor-voter programs in the 1990’s signed up some who failed to vote).

Dan Janison

Fans of the former mayor are kicking around the prospect of their man becoming attorney general in a McCain administration or Department of Homeland Security secretary, the job that underling Bernie Kerik was up for in 2004 before the crash-and-burn came. It's the chatter of the moment, which may allow the defeated Giuliani a bit of vestigial prestige after winning a paltry 15 percent in "firewall" Florida.

If you can identify the gentleman above, you're real good.

UPDATE: Kudos to the very impressive Mr. Stanley Jackson, who nailed the ID within minutes. For the correct answer, see his comment below.

FURTHER UPDATE: And credit to Jim Kelly for his valid predictions about the fate of the campaign.

Dan Janison

His career is not quite toast just yet.

Rudolph William Louis Giuliani, 63, a well-off and well-known citizen with residences in Manhattan and the Hamptons, faces a resumption of private-sector life - as lawyer, businessman, consultant, and social celebrity.

Throughout his yearlong presidential adventure, undoubtedly aware this day could come, the former New York City mayor stayed linked to his partnership and law firm, taking hits on some of the clientele and leaving a key business in the trusted hands of his longtime friend Peter Powers.

And as a self-styled brand name, Giuliani has preserved useful bridges. Sure he spent months playing Twister with his record as mayor, put out ads that missed, and drew the kind of harsh scrutiny that the more sensitive candidates complain about.

But His Honor is expected to retain a player's stake in a certain GOP White House. For the most part, Giuliani kept it friendly with Sen. John McCain, whom he endorses today - some consoling themselves last night with hope of a vice presidential slot for the New Yorker. Some cynics even suggest that Giuliani Partners could become the next, oh, Halliburton.

You can count on Giuliani, at some point, to take as much credit as possible...

Dan Janison

Rudy Giuliani's campaign just announced it would charter a 727 jet to take the news media to California tomorrow for the GOP debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.

This threw a serious curve into the predictions he might quit the presidential race if he loses, as expected, in the must-win Florida primary today. One scenario has it that he's out if John McCain wins but stays in if Mitt Romney is the victor.

Could Team Giuliani be seeing something that tells them Mitt is winning? Or is the campaign trying to end what they see as pre-mature political obituaries to keep their supporters going to the polls?

Or does the beleagured one-time GOP frontrunner just want the news media to share his California Dreaming?

-- Tom Brune on the trail in Florida with the Giuliani campaign

New York’s top Republican, Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno, is sticking with Rudy Giuliani even as the former mayor’s poll numbers continue to sink.

"There is concern, yeah, because his numbers are softer than they had been a month ago – and in Florida, especially, and here in New York State," Bruno said this afternoon leaving a luncheon in Albany with manufacturers. "So, it’s a matter of concern. But you know what, Rudy has a record. He’s been a leader. He’s been elected in one of the toughest cities in the world…He managed that city very well. He stood up with the terrorist attacks and led the state and the country really forward. And people are going to recognize that."

Asked about the prospect of Giuliani dropping out before New York’s Feb. 5 primary, Bruno downplayed that possibility.

"Now if he’s up there in the top three and close, then I’m sure he’s going to bounce into Feb. 5 and he’s going to stay there," Bruno said.

The senator also refused to discuss whom the state GOP would back should Giuliani not be the standard bearer in November.

"We’re not going to second guess," Bruno said. "Right now, we’re with Rudy Giuliani and we’re supporting him, and we’ll take a look at what happens tomorrow [in Florida primary] and see what his decisions are. But we are very fortunate in the Republican side that we have several viable candidates. I think any one of them would make an excellent president of the United States."

James T. Madore

On a fly-around in his last gasp before the key Florida GOP primary Tuesday, Rudy Giuliani submitted to about three minutes of questions from the reporters flying with him -- and dropped a hint that he might drop out of the race if he doesn't win tomorrow.

Giuliani suggested there are two tickets out of Florida - one winner, and the rest losers.

"I think the winner of Florida will win the nomination, and we're going to win Florida," he said.

But for someone so sure about winning he certainly hedged on his future plans.

Asked about plans after tomorrow, Giuliani said, "When its Wednesday morning we'll make a decision."

And, when asked if he would take part in the California debate scheduled for Wednesday, he said, "We fully intend to participate in the debate."

John MCain and Mitt Romney, are tied at about 30 percent in a Quinnipiac Poll of Florida released today. Giuliani, who just a few weeks ago was in a statistical tie in a Q Poll with McCain, Romney and Mike Huckabee, now is battling Huckabee for third at 14 percent.

--Tom Brune, with the Giuliani campaign in Florida

Allies of Rudy Giuliani believe that if he performs poorly in tomorrow's Florida primary he'd drop out of the presidential race rather than face a humiliating defeat in his home state. But speculaltion aside, the instant attention is on how the New York Republican ballot will look.

Eight years ago, when state Republican officials were working to defeat Sen. John McCain (above) in a presidential primary, the rules were different. For one thing, delegate selections involved petition filings, and a court battle was fought by McCain just to win ballot access.

That was also the last time the GOP held a presidential primary here, because George W. Bush got an incumbent’s free ride in 2004.

After the bitter internal wars of 2000, however, state Republicans changed their selection system. Today, with “Super Duper Tuesday” approaching, a new dispute has sprung from the new method, as we reported over the weekend. The legal question is whether GOP election officials — newly empowered to place presidential candidates on the ballot on their own — may also remove them. Democratic officials insist they cannot.

If Alan Keyes, Duncan Hunter and Fred Dalton Thompson are removed from the ballots — as GOP Chairman Joseph Mondello seems to wish — favorite-son candidate Rudy Giuliani will become second on the ballot behind Rep. Ron Paul, and McCain will appear last of the remaining five.

UPDATE/CORRECTION: The expert Jerry Skurnik notes that this applies only outside NYC, where names are rotated routinely by election district.

Never mind whether ballot display matters in the results of the primary a week from tomorrow. Due to Democrats’ deadlines, their party members will see dropouts Bill Richardson, Joe Biden and Dennis Kucinich on the primary ballot.

Dan Janison

No, the vote is not until Tuesday, but the latest polls suggest that -- as the veterans' wisdom would have it -- Rudy Giuliani might really have been delusional after all when he decided he will become president of the United States by posing first as Florida's mayor, employing the sentiments stirred by Castro, terrorism, tax cuts and hurricanes.

Here's a resonant report of the former mayor's campaign life conveyed by Wall Street Journal reporter Monica Langley over the weekend:

"'He strikes me as weird,' said Donald Croll, a retired engineer who attended a Giuliani rally in Sun City. He frowned at the memory of Mr. Giuliani appearing in drag at a New York event and divorcing his second wife while having an affair with the woman who became his third. Said Mr. Croll: "I've had two wives, but my first one died of cancer."

Also from the piece: "Rather than a full cadre of political operatives, Mr. Giuliani has brought along his buddies, some of them also his business partners, such as boyhood friend Peter Powers, head of his consulting firm, Giuliani Partners LLC. His campaign bus is a macho club on wheels with sports on the TV screens and a supply of cigars. Instead of going for the baby-kissing "photo op," Mr. Giuliani recently rushed past one little boy, who bawled. Only after the boy's grandmother knocked on the bus's door pleading did Mr. Giuliani emerge and sign a brochure. ''Thank you, kid,' he said."

Dan Janison

Rudy Giuliani's tantalizing dips in Florida and New York polls have not deterred the position of the New York state Republican committee which is backing the former mayor. One GOP official said support for Giuliani remains "1000 percent" and that he can still pull out Florida on Jan. 26 and get that boost going into Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.

"There's still light at the end of the tunnel," the official said.

Assemb. Phil Boyle (R-I-C-Bay Shore), a backer of Sen. John McCain, said here in Albany that now that the numbers have grown encouraging "We'll put on a full court press to win New York State," he said -- and rallies, phone calls and literature distribution are expected.

McCain supporters may have a selling point they couldn't have imagined weeks ago -- that of the two candidates, McCain has the better chance of winning in November.

Dan Janison

Political truth number 718: Your friend isn't always your friend's friend.

As noted here earlier, Rep. Pete King (R-Seaford) is standing loyally with his man in the presidential race, Rudy Giuliani. But former Mayor Ed Koch, who made campaign commercials for King in 2006, also wrote a nasty book about Giuliani called 'Nasty Man' and issued his definitive prediction today that the man who investigated corruption in the Koch administration will lose Florida, and the GOP nomination.

In his latest dispatch, flagged by Newsday's alert Bill Murphy, Koch says: "Rudy’s stated belief was and is that Florida voters will save him. Who in Florida? The New Yorkers who have emigrated there to spend the balance of their lives in sunny, winterless Florida? Those people -- predominately elderly New York Jews, with whom Rudy did well as mayor -- are overwhelmingly registered Democrats. I found that out myself when I campaigned in 2004 for President George W. Bush...."

Dan Janison

With Republican primary candidates beginning their Florida blitz, Rudy Giuliani on Sunday continued a strategy of mixing it up, if gently, while hammering away at his claim that he is the bigger tax cutter.

Asked about his dismal showing in South Carolina’s primary, where he garnered just 2 percent of the vote, Giuliani said, “I’m only thinking about Florida.” Republican front-runner John McCain has been the target of the Giuliani’s light-gloved campaign slaps of the past two days.

At a gathering with seniors at the Sun City Center Community Hall here, Giuliani continued to work the issues of his tax-cutting record, his leadership experience and, to a lesser extent than in his early campaigning here, anti-terror messages.

At a stop in Tampa for a national TV talk-show appearance, he again mentioned McCain by name, saying his own record of tax cutting and being a “fiscal conservative” outshone the Arizona senator’s. “I think I’m the strongest fiscal conservative in the race,” Giuliani said.

His Florida campaign chief, Bill McCollum, the state attorney general, went further in a talk with reporters. McCain “has not been an executive. He’s not been an executive of any type,” McCollum said. He dismissed Mike Huckabee entirely, saying, “Mike Huckabee’s not going to win this race.”

While McCollum said he doesn’t expect it, he said he believes Giuliani could do well on Super Tuesday, when 22 states hold their primaries Feb. 5, even if he finished second in Florida.

Despite concerns about funding that has led some Giuliani staff to work without pay, McCollum said the campaign has “plenty of financing” to pay for a heavy TV ad schedule through to Jan. 29, when Florida holds its primary. Beyond that, he said, none of the primary contenders is flush with cash, relying primarily on momentum from prior primary wins to help them through super Tuesday. Giuliani thus far hasn’t won any states, but at his campaign stops, has said Florida will be the “defining” contest of the primary.

Mark Harrington in Pebble Beach, Fla.

Speculation, for the moment, centers on whether Fred Thompson cut into the numbers of the former Arkansas governor on the right. Stay tuned, but we just wanted to get that headline out...

Jon Voight had a Hillary moment.

Campaigning for Giuliani at a retirement community Saturday, Voight said he decided to support the former mayor because of the way he rehabilitated New York City.

At one point in his talk, Voight choked up, recalling how the city had deteriorated. “We saw this jewel of a city go downhill,” the actor said. “Please don’t let this city go… Our prayers were answered in the form of Rudy Giuliani.”

Asked about choking up later, Voight said, “I’m emotional about the country and I’m emotional to think that with all the things we’re up against, there’s a man out there who has an answer.”

But a senior here was unimpressed with Giuliani’s New York resume.

Sitting with a “Florida is Rudy Country” placard, farmer Rich Pitstick said Giuliani is his third choice among the Republicans, after John McCain and Mike Huckabee. Asked what he dislikes about Giuliani, Pitstick, who splits his time between here and Illinois, said “Mainly because he’s from New York.”

Mark Harrington in Florida

Eight years ago this week, Mayor Rudy Giuliani delivered his seventh State of the-City address, marking the midpoint of his second and, by law, final term. It was laced with the usual self-congratulation, aimed in part at an audience beyond the five boroughs.

Yesterday, Mayor Michael Bloomberg delivered his seventh State of the City address, marking the midpoint of his second and final term. It, too, was laced with the customary self-congratulation - and aimed a bit at an audience beyond the five boroughs.

When Giuliani, Bloomberg's possible rival, spoke in City Hall on Jan. 13, 2000, he'd started running for higher office - U.S. Senate - without having announced that he was doing so. And when Bloomberg spoke at the new ice rink in Flushing Meadows-Corona Park yesterday, he, too, had started running for higher office - the presidency - without saying so.

Ballot preparations and strategies and planning have moved far enough along now that for billionaire Bloomberg the only question is whether he pulls the plug in the coming weeks on his unorthodox stealth candidacy - or embraces it in full.

All this presidential fanfare, though, hides the sobering truth of his day job: Having two years left in office means a shrinkage of municipal power and the prospect of a government adrift.

With economic storm clouds looming, Bloomberg called yesterday for sacrifices by unions. But labor leaders in the room knew full well that Bloomberg now lacks leverage. He leaves in 2009 - and the latest round of contracts is already negotiated and signed.

Key parts of his broader agenda appear doomed as well. Nobody applauded, for example, when .....

Dan Janison

One of the most driven candidates in memory, Rudy Giuliani, seems to be engaged in a constant effort to convey light-heartedness when questioned by the media. It would seem he is out to sweeten up the rather grim rationale of his candidacy -- that electing him, and not someone else, could keep the enemy from killing us all.

Sometimes this odd mix of the giddy and the somber can get a bit puzzling.

A case in point: On Friday, Michael Smerconish was filling in for Bill O'Reilly on the "Radio Factor" show. Smerconish interviewed the former mayor about his Florida-based campaign strategy. He asked him to elaborate on the point made in one of his commercials that one should not adhere to "the pundits."

"What's that all about?" Smerconish asked. Giuliani chuckled and began to respond. "And by the way," Smerconish added, "you weren't talking about me, were you, Mayor?"

“It was really just a joke," Giuliani replied. "I mean, it was to lighten things up a bit -- to basically say, you know, they all have this analysis of different strategies and the reality is ultimately, it's all about leadership, and it’s about who do you want to lead, and you’ve got to kind of cut through the underbrush and get to the point.”

OK, so here's what the voice-over says in this ad, posted here last week, which begins with a bank of TV commentators yakking at once: "With pundits handicapping the campaign like the Superbowl, its easy to lose sight of what’s at stake: An economy in peril. A country at war. A future uncertain. The media loves process. Talking heads love chatter. But Florida has a chance to turn down the noise, and show the world that leadership is what really matters."

Now, which part of this ad was "just a joke?"

Very weird.

Dan Janison

In the first stop on the first day of a three-day bus tour across Florida, Rudy Giuliani spoke at the service of an Hispanic mega-church, Templo El Rey Jesus, and revealed his campaign Bible verse, particularly apt for his Florida campaign.

It's Joshua 12:25: "Fear not, be strong and of good courage."

Giuliani implicitly addressed questions about whether he can pull off winning the GOP nomination with his unconventional strategy of waiting until Florida for a first primary victory.

"There are so many that are naysayers,” he said, “but don’t listen to them. "Don’t pay attention to them. 'Fear not, be strong and of good courage.'"

UPDATE/CORRECTION: Upon further review, the verse is actually Joshua 10:25. And Giuliani gave a shortened version. Here is the actual version from the King James Bible::"And Joshua said unto them, Fear not, nor be dismayed, be strong and of good courage: for thus shall the LORD do to all your enemies against whom ye fight."

Tom Brune in Miami, Fla.

Picture a November contest between Sen. Barack Obama and Rudy Giuliani. Not only would it feature the first African-American major-party presidential nominee against the first Italian-American, it would resonate with regional history in a unique way.

Giuliani's single loss at the polls, in 1989, made David Dinkins New York City's first black mayor - until Dinkins, staggered by the Crown Heights riots, lost the rematch to Giuliani in 1993. For the next eight years, political relations between City Hall and black communities ranged between cold and contentious.

In his push for the White House, Giuliani clearly has been bent on facing Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who'd be the first female major-party presidential nominee. His fundraising letters specifically tout him as the Republican best suited to stop her. His campaign appears....

Dan Janison

Rudy Giuliani might have another rough night tomorrow as new polls show him slipping to fourth place here. But Team Rudy can take a small bit of satisfaction out of one thing – suddenly everyone LOVES the so-called Feb. 5 strategy that Giuliani has been touting all year.

Hillary Clinton jumped on the bandwagon after losing Iowa. Now even Mitt Romney is getting on board.

Giuliani’s idea is that he can afford to lose now, then come roaring back in the mega-primary Feb. 5, when big states chock full of delegates like New York and California vote. It’s a national strategy, say his advisers – but political pros call it risky at best. Even Giuliani calls it “unconventional.”

But after losing Iowa and facing a second loss here, Hillary Clinton is talking a lot more about her own Feb. 5 strategy. Ditto Romney, who once banked his whole campaign on winning those two states. Things look a lot different now that he's in deep trouble and might go 0-for-2.

“He could lose New Hampshire because he’s got a national campaign," insists Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo, who dropped out of the race recently and now backs Romney. "He could still win this thing.”

-- Craig Gordon in Manchester, N.H.

LITCHFIELD, N.H. -- Rep. Peter King (R-Seaford), arrived today riding shotgun with Rudy Giuliani on the New Hampshire campaign trail.

King, who appeared with the former mayor at a house party here, said he'll be in the post-debate spin room tonight talking up Giuliani and to "advise and comfort" the candidate. Here's the advice King said he gave:

"I think for a while in the debates, when you're out in front you play it cautious. Now that the race is narrowed, be more aggressive, be assertive as to why you should be president. The American people expect it."

King wouldn't predict Giuliani's finish in the Tuesday vote, but said, "he'll do more than enough to keep himself in good shape heading into Florida and beyond."

Back in 2000, it was the folks in South Florida who secured the first presidential victory for George W. Bush -- a kind of GOP solidarity theme put forward by Rudy Giuliani as he addressed a small group in Hialeah, mostly Cuban-American.

He was close to the football stadium where the Bush forces rallied and recalled how surprisingly close it all was.

Giuliani also ticked off his credentials among Cuban emigres -- including working as mayor to exclude Fidel Castro from the 50th anniversary at the UN and naming Lexington and E. 38th St. after Brothers to the Rescue.

“You have someone who understands what you’ve gone through, has been with you every step of the way," he said. He referred to as a recurring dream. “I would like to be with you in a free democratic Cuba!” he declared.

Dan Janison

Rudy Giuliani flies to Miami, the land of the hanging chads, and some of his favorite cigar shops, on the day of what polls show to be an impending very-non-first-place in Iowa to tell America once again just where he plans to begin really winning the GOP nomination in three weeks.

Ready as ever to boast of how he flouts conventional wisdom, Giuliani set out way in advance to spin his losses in the first few primary states by playing up the contest here on Jan. 29. He has been assuring supporters he can hold his lead in big states while other candidates cancel each other out elsewhere.

Do the math, he says. Iowa has 40 delegates, New Hampshire 12, and Michigan 30. But after Florida decides its 57 and Maine its 21 comes Super Duper Tsunami Tuesday when big states such as New York and California and more than 20 others determine 1,113 in all.

After a detour here today, he returns tomorrow to campaign in New Hampshire, where he also trails.

Several days ago his adviser Brent Seaborn, wrote rather grandly in a memo released to the news media that “history will prove us right.” He called the tactic of downplaying the earliest states “bold, innovative and designed to deal with the radically different election calendar.”

His battle plan thus has him standing outside the war zone of the moment and rooting for the other guys to sustain casualties.

Dan Janison in Miami

Rudy Giuliani was a big fan of cigars, certainly prior to his prostate cancer in 2000, and that mixed in an interesting way with his anti-Castro political promotions as mayor and the emigres who manufacture the stogies, and who have helped fund his campaign. There is an interesting piece on this in today's Miami Herald.

For many years Manny Papir was Giuliani's loyal aide, and even though his wife Judith got Papir fired on the trip to Europe that saw her husband knighted by the Queen of England, he is quoted matter-of-factly in the Herald piece on his lecturing of Israeli leader Ehud Olmert for having offered Giuliani a Cuban cigar. As noted in the story, Papir is not working for any presidential candidate. Rudy is due back in Hialeah tomorrow, the heart of Cuban-American Miami, during the Iowa caucuses to emphasize the importance of Florida, the land of the hanging chad, in his plans to capture the GOP nomination.

One of the little ironies this week is how Giuliani supported an exception to his successor Mike Bloomberg's landmark anti-smoking bill in the city for cigar bars. We understand that every now and then in the Grand Havana room, he exchanged awkward acknowledging nods with the Rev. Al Sharpton.

Dan Janison

Rudy Giuliani, who has framed his entire candidacy on stopping attacks like the one that killed Benazir Bhutto today, was the first out of the box linking the tragedy to the campaign. But to the extent that it influences the upcoming Iowa caucus to any degree, Bhutto's murder might help (in the narrowest political sense) Hillary Clinton, an early admirer of Bhutto.

For Clinton, the killing underscores two critical arguments in favor of her candidacy:

1. That she's the real agent of change. The biggest "change" any democratic country can implement is the election of its first woman leader. (On that score, Pakistan, which many Americans regard as a blood-soaked autocracy slipping back into the dark ages, leads the USA 2-0) And the backlash against such a change can be violent indeed.

2. The obvious one: That Americans need stability and experience in unpredictable times.

On the other hand...

Pakistan set off five nuclear tests (although it has produced weapons-grade fissile material since the late-1980s) in 1998 on Bill Clinton's watch, even though his administration imposed sanctions. And it was Bhutto's father Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto who initiated the atomic program in 1972.

-- Glenn Thrush

Rudy Giuliani, fading in polls and slipping from national consciousness, strikes back tomorrow with an ad in Florida and New Hampshire, and on Fox TV nationally, that returns to the roots of his celebrity, the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks that devastated New York City. The former New York mayor's renewed focus on his signature issue may be the only way he can stay in the race for the GOP presidential nomination while skipping Iowa, which is drawing all the attention as its Jan. 3 caucuses near. His previous six ads all focused on his record as mayor before the attacks and Ronald Reagan.

Tom Brune

New York-based GOP consultant Roger Stone, whose activities and strategies always draw interest in political circles, has this analysis on his political Web site: essentially that the possible nomination of John McCain has become an "amazing reality" and that what appears to be Rudy Giuliani's "melt-down" benefits the Arizona Senator by far over any other Republican candidate. Nothing personal, apparently -- the one-time Nixon man still has his grip-and-grin photo with Giuliani posted on the StoneZone site (as you can see, third from left, above).

More important, though, is the question of whether the ever-perceptive Stone is correct in his thesis.

Dan Janison

Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani says he believes his successor Mike Bloomberg won't run since he can't win. Somebody better tell that to Bloomberg's deputy mayor for political promotion, Kevin Sheekey.

Meantime, in what supporters of Sen. John McCain are known to consider a patronizing gesture, Giuliani -- while campaigning in New Hampshire -- said the Arizonan would make a good adviser to him as president.

This may come as a surprise, but last month, McCain did give Rudy a little advice.

When former police commissioner Bernard Kerik was indicted on federal charges, McCain slammed Giuliani's poor judgment in pushing his longtime friend for top posts such as U.S. security secretary. On behalf of the Rudy camp, former deputy mayor Randy Mastro called attention to McCain's role in the savings and loan scandal of the 1980's. To which Team McCain pointed out that Mastro had served as an attorney for the construction firm at the center of the Kerik prosecution, a company whose owners are accused of perjury stemming from the earlier state case against Kerik.

Would Giuliani have stroked McCain as his good friend and hero once again if the latter weren't rising in the polls? Or is that too cynical a suggestion?

Dan Janison

The major local news outlets sometimes see eye-to-eye on the narrative of a political issue, but in the case of Rudy Giuliani's brief illness, the New York Post and the Daily News seem to follow a different story line.

In today's editions, for example, the News leads its Rudy story with concerns tied to the candidate's cancer history that are touted in short on the front page. It runs alongside this piece, about how those in companies that benefitted from his administration's corporate-tax largesse have been contributing to his subsequent campaigns.

For the moment, the Post has the headline 'Rudy: Just a Headache' and has been leaning more in the last few days toward his downplaying the mystery sickness and, at least in contrast to the News, emphasizing his move-forward peppiness.

Right now, we still don't know where the campaign got its initial "flu-like symptoms" phrasing, but it did serve the instant purpose of making the matter sound less serious than it might have seemed -- which in this case was the immediate public relations objective. Face it: flu-like makes you think pain relievers and tons of water and rest, while an enormous killer headache that turns the plane around suggests something more severe.

The former mayor has committed himself to steering the followup narrative by having medical professionals publicly discuss his test results after Christmas. That way, he can show physical vigor and assure his public that he'll be able to serve in the White House at least for as long as he's constitutionally elected.

Easily missed on Page 35 of today's New York Times: A story concluding that the media circus over whether then-mayor Rudy Giuliani tried to hide security costs for visits to then-girlfriend Judith Nathan in Southampton in obscure agency budgets was hogwash.

The story by Russ Buettner -- with an overline calling it a "Checkpoint" feature -- declares that a full review of city records indicates that it is "not likely" that Giuliani was using accounting tricks to keep the expenses secret. It said that more of the expenses were actually billed to the mayor's office than to obscure agencies like the Loft Board, and that the $2474 in Judith-visits billed to unusual agencies was dwarfed by a total of $281,338 in travel expenses that was also billed to the same unusual agencies.

It's not necessarily definitive, and it's not the first review of the records to suggest that the worst interpretation of the billing did not seem to fit the facts. But it seems to be the most comprehensive, and it does assert a pretty clear, exculpatory conclusion. So, given the big splash and the huge impact the Judith-billing controversy had on Rudy's campaign -- it's kind of curious that the Times plays it on the bottom of page 35, isn't it?