Spin Cycle

Among the top contenders for the Republican presidential nomination, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson made the latest entry into the race, in September, and according to one report he might well be the first to leave the race.

According to the Politico.com Website, created and run by former top political reporters at the Washington Post, Thompson is considering dropping out if he finishes a distant third or lower in the Iowa caucuses tonight.

“Without a solid third-place finish, there’s no point in going on,” the site quotes a Thompson adviser as saying yesterday. “It was an honorable race, and he turned out to be a good candidate. The moment had just passed.” (Excerpt continues on the jump.)

Thompson denied the report on Fox News this morning.

"No, that's not -- I heard about that this morning. There is no such Thompson adviser. That's not something that I have thought about. That's not something I have discussed with anybody. It's something made up by the whole cloth and dropped here at the last minute, probably by one of the other campaigns with some staffers with too much time on their hands apparently. But that's the kind of thing that you run into. No truth of that at all," he said.

If Thompson were to drop out, however, the effect would not really hit New Hampshire. As his campaign manager William B. Lacy ended his e-mail to supporters today: "You can also help us for the next big push in South Carolina."

It would roil that Jan. 19 primary, possibly clearing the way for Huckabee should he win today, or if he doesn't, possibly helping Mitt Romney or giving John McCain and Rudy Giuliani more breathing room in the first contest in a Southern state.

Tom Brune in Des Moines, Iowa

At the Republican YouTube debate, Fred Thompson introduced a video that was essentially an attack ad on Romney and Huckabee. The next day, he released the full version on his website. It's longer, and includes an attack on Rudy at the end. See him endorse Mario Cuomo, and scold the NRA!!! (via Atlantic).

Fred Thompson is getting some buzz for remarks he's expected to deliver in a speech to the NY Conservative Party tonight, seen as a rip at Rudy on his home turf:

An excerpt: "Some think the way to beat the Democrats in November is to be more like them. I could not disagree more. I believe that conservatives beat liberals only when we challenge their outdated positions, not embrace them."

Reid J. Epstein

The timing of the Thompson candidacy within the federal financial disclosure cycle allows the potential under-the-radar Rudy-backlash candidate to avoid showing the public until next Jan. 31 how much he's raised and spent, says this well-versed post.

Fred Thompson today reported that he raised $3.4 million last month for his presidential exploratory committee, causing some supporters to start handwringing because that amount fell short of the $5 million he was expected to raise.

But still, Thompson did considerably better than Rudy Giuliani during his exploratory days.

In two fundraisers in June, Thompson collected nearly three times as much as the $1.3 million Giuliani raised the first six weeks of his exploratory committee (most of it at one pre-Christmas fundraiser). Thompson also had many more donors -- 9,167 in all 50 states -- than Giuliani, who had just 739 contributors, nearly all of them friends and business associates in New York and Texas.

Thompson poses a particular problem for Giuliani, since the tall man with the Southern drawl is pushing Giuliani in the polls as conservatives look to him to represent the right in the fight for the White House next year.

Thompson's total, reported by his non-profit political "testing the waters" committee to the IRS, is dwarfed by former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney's prodigious fundraising feat of collecting $6.5 million in a day (Jan. 8, 2007). But as a possible harbinger of things to come, it's twice the $1.7 million reported in January by then GOP frontrunner Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).

Tom Brune

Appearing in South Carolina today, TV actor Fred Thompson referred obliquely to those who read from lists of points but do not show core political beliefs. This was taken by some as a shot at the former NYC mayor. Judge for yourself, by reading here. Couldn't he just as well have meant the top-tier Democrats?

Suffolk Republican chairman Harry Withers and aides to presidential contender Rudy Giuliani have been scurrying around Suffolk county to lock up endorsements from elected and political officials.

But one of Suffolk top remaining elected Republican, Comptroller Joseph Sawicki, has balked at signing on.

Withers, who has Giuliani headlining his upcoming lobsterfest, said the “vast majority” of GOP party and elected officials have signed on to endorse Giuliani, including Suffolk’s only other countywide elected official, County Clerk Judith Pascale, as well as Legis. Edward Romaine (R-Center Moriches) the GOP county executive candidate four years ago and Legis. Thomas Barraga (R-West Islip).

“I‘m backing Rudy because he backed me for county executive,” Romaine said. Giuliani also backed Barraga in his losing run for Islip Supervisor last year.

Rick Brand

The buzz in New York Republican ciricles today surrounds former U.S. Sen. Alfonse D'Amato's touting Fred Thompson as presidential candidate.

This occurs as D'Amato's old ally, Joe Mondello, now the state GOP chairman, goes full-force behind Rudy Giuliani -- who ought to take the New York primary with ease and could assist the chances of Republican legislators in next year's general election.

Of course, D'Amato and Giuliani have never been fans of each other, to say the least. Too much sour history. But also, D'Amato has been reputedly seeking a candidate with whom he can get in on early -- like a stock that's bound to rise. He reportedly flirted with endorsing John McCain -- whose spokesman in NY prematurely trumpeted D'Amato's support a few weeks ago -- but now seems to rule out the Arizona senator's chances. In the Thompson camp, D'Amato can be a big shot.

Can former Gov. George Pataki be far behind? Was that really him lunching in Manhattan with Thompson a couple of weeks back?

Dan Janison

UPDATE: The rivals are of course revving up their negative research on the past stances of the Tenneseean, who mutters in the dark on TV for a living.

Now the only question is whether actor Fred Thompson fades away or becomes the next Reagan. Undoubtedly the Giuliani and McCain camps will take a what-me-worry tack.

Tonight, the actor and former GOP Sen. Fred Thompson goes on the Leno show, and there's some buzz that he might announce there and then. We shall see.