Spin Cycle

Commentators speculating on Hillary Clinton's potential departure to become Secretary of State continue to put Andrew Cuomo at the top of the list of potential replacements, on the theory that by naming him Gov. Paterson would remove a potential rival to his expected re-election bid in 2010.

But as we've mentioned here before, that line of analysis seems to ignore the impact of Cuomo's disastrous 2002 challenge to Carl McCall for the Democratic nomination. Aside from running an immature campaign, Cuomo's decision to try to take the nomination away from a longer-serving official striving to become the first African-American elected governor in NY was badly received from the start.

Challenging an incumbent in a primary involves the same kind of too-much-in-a-hurry chutzpah. Challenging an African-American appointed incumbent who is trying, again, to become the first black man elected governor would arouse the same resentments.

Unless Paterson's next 12 months are such a disaster that he appears unelectable, Cuomo won't make the same mistake twice. Paterson, knowing this, probably doesn't view him as a serious rival in 2010. And if he doesn't, the logic of putting him in the Senate disappears.

Cuomo, who is the voter favorite to replace Clinton in polls, should certainly be on the list of possibilities. But the political logic of naming him is less obvious than it may appear on the surface.