Spin Cycle

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Obama and McCain more or less tied on Iraq.

You can view this two ways: Since McCain enjoys the reputation of the more experienced national-security candidate, it's good for Obama to be even on the key foreign policy question. Or, since the Democrats and Obama in particular since 2006 have built their foundation on dissatisfaction with Iraq, it's scary for them to see the advantage dissipate.

The numbers: Since December of 2006, voters who believe the US is making substantial progress in Iraq have grown from 31 to 46 percent, and those who believe the US is not making progress has dropped from 66 to 51 percent. When asked to choose between Obama's timetable and McCain position that conditions on the ground must dictate the approach in Iraq, voters are split 50-49 (for a timetable, by 1).

An interesting discrepancy: Only 34 percent believe winning in Iraq is necessary to win the broader war on terrorism, compared to 60 percent who don't. But a majority still feel the war in Afghanistan was justified, and by a 51-42 margin voters feel winning in Afghanistan is necessary to winning the war on terrorism.

Obama wrote a NYT op-ed yesterday arguing that a draw down in Iraq would allow ratcheting up in Afghanistan, and he is pushing the same point in a speech and a series of TV appearances today:

“In fact – as should have been apparent to President Bush and Senator McCain – the central front in the war on terror is not Iraq, and it never was.”

Also this morning: A national horserace poll from Quinnipiac has Obama up 50-41 -- healthier than the 3 points Newsweek had last week -- on the strength of women, blacks (94-1) and young people, while McCain has an edge among men and whites (49-42)