Spin Cycle

A new Siena poll, out today, shows that both Clinton and Obama -- in contrast to the last poll -- have started to distance themselves from McCain in New York. Clinton and Obama both lead by 11 up from 4 and 5 respectively in April.

A more interesting result: Siena polled on pay raises for the legislature, judges and the governor. While public opinion was strongly against a raise for the governor (65-31) and judges (55-39), views are almost equally divided on legislative raises -- 49 opposed, 45 supporting.

The results seem to be a function of Siena including the current "base salary" of each in its poll question -- the $179,000 governor is predictably least popular, and the $79,500 legislators are most popular. The problem: As Liz at the Daily Politics politics points out, there's no mention of the generous per diems and leadership bonuses that push many legislators into six-figures.

Nor is there mention of the fact that legislators -- unlike the governor and most judges -- are part-time workers, and most supplement their salaries by practicing law (Sheldon Silver), consulting with people who have business before the legislature (Joe Bruno) or other entreprneurial efforts to supplement their salaries.

So, in this case, the poll feeds a misimpression.

In other results: Paterson is still widely unknown (48-17 favorable, but 35 percent don't know), but still widely beats Cuomo in a potential Democratic gubernatorial primary matchup (42-29).

And, Democrats seem to have established a fairly strong generic advantage in the contests for control of the state Senate. In a March poll -- while Spitzer was in self-destruction mode -- 47 percent of voters agreed that keeping Republicans in control of the Senate would provide checks and balances, while 45 percent thought Democrats would make government more effective if they got control.

Now, 48 percent agree with the Democratic argument, while only 39 percent buy the Republican checks-and-balances argument. Essentially, Spitzer himself had become the best argument for the GOP, and now he's gone...