Spin Cycle

The Democratic party's Rules & Bylaws Committee hearing on Florida and Michigan is running long -- it started with presentations on Florida, and is now moving through Michigan presentations.

The overall impression on Florida was that Clinton has an uphill climb to get full seating and full recognition of the results of the unsanctioned primary. Bad moments for Hillary:

1. The petitioner challenging the status quo, DNC Florida Committeman John Ausman, called for 50 percent seating. So the committee would be granting the petition with a 50 percent solution.

2. Obama's presenter, Rep. Robert Wexler, said Obama was willing to go along with that solution -- and therefore was able to present 50 percent as a "unity" proposal. "Unity" for the general election seems to be a watchword of the day.

3. Clinton's presenter, Florida Sen. Arthenia Jones, references four or five times the need to count the 1.7 million votes cast in the unsanctioned primary. But in response to a question from Florida committee member Allan Katz, an Obama supporter, she acknowledges that the turnout would have been 3 million if voters hadn't been told the vote wouldn't count, and there had been an actual campaign.

4. That admission rather dramatically undercuts the argument that the result of the 1.7 million was a fair reflection of the way an actual election might have come out, and amounts to a concession that "counting the votes" of 1.7 million would effectively disenfranchise another 1.3 million who didn't vote because they were told not to.

5.Clinton strategist Harold Ickes had a bad moment. He asked Wexler how the Obama "compromise" that would produce only a net gain of 19 delegates was really a concession of any significance. Wexler: 19 from Florida represents the same net gain Hillary got from winning Ohio and Pennsylvania combined. Which sounded like a pretty good answer.

6. No real clues on whether the committee is tilted to giving all delegates a half vote (net gain of 19 for Clinton) or cutting the number of delegates literally in half (net of 6, because of some congressional districts in which a 3-1 Hillary edge would become a 1-1 split).

7. Clear evidence in the questioning that the institutional issue -- how does the committee enforce its rules, and act consistently with the role it played in creating the "problem" -- weighs fairly heavily.