Oregon is still not done counting. With 88 percent of the precincts reporting, Obama continues to hold a 58-42 lead, a popular vote advantage of about 95,000 votes.
Excluding Michigan and Florida, he secured enough delegates in Kentucky last night to clinch a majority of the elected delegates nationally. He needs 27 delegates from Oregon to clinch that same majority even if Michigan and Florida delegates are seated in the proportions the Clinton campaign prefers.
The Clinton formula is, in fact, unlikely. But at this point, CNN has allocated Obama 21 delegates and Clinton 14 of Oregon's total of 52 that were at stake last night. If Obama gets six of the remaining 17, he will have clinched a majority of the elected delegates even under a Clinton-friendly scenario for Michigan and Florida.
The picture is brighter when it comes to the popular vote. Clinton's wins in West Virginia and Kentucky were staggeringly large, bigger than anyone expected. Even subtracting Obama's big win in Oregon, Clinton has now moved within about 416,000 votes of Obama, by our calculation.
Assuming modest gains for Obama in South Dakota and Montana, Clinton would still need a highly unlikely scenario in Puerto Rico -- say, a turnout of 1.5 million and a 30-point victory -- to win the popular vote straight up. But if she counts Florida, where there was no campaign but Obama (and Edwards) were on the ballot -- she gets a net of another 288,000 votes, and is actually likely to overtake Obama.
So, that's likely to be one of the arguments going forward.
Comments (1)
You have to be high to think Obama is a real candidate.